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Statistical Inference Exam Questions

This document provides instructions and problems for an exam on statistical inference. It begins by outlining the exam instructions, including a 3 hour duration and calculators being allowed. It then presents 4 problems involving calculating statistics like mean, variance, and order statistics from sample data, as well as maximum likelihood estimation and confidence intervals for parameter values. It provides relevant formulas that may be needed to solve the problems. The document aims to concisely test students' understanding of key concepts in statistical inference.

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Alimov Olimxon
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views4 pages

Statistical Inference Exam Questions

This document provides instructions and problems for an exam on statistical inference. It begins by outlining the exam instructions, including a 3 hour duration and calculators being allowed. It then presents 4 problems involving calculating statistics like mean, variance, and order statistics from sample data, as well as maximum likelihood estimation and confidence intervals for parameter values. It provides relevant formulas that may be needed to solve the problems. The document aims to concisely test students' understanding of key concepts in statistical inference.

Uploaded by

Alimov Olimxon
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

First Sitting (A) Semester B, date 7/02/2022

Exam for Course (68026_‫" )תשפב_א‬Statistical Inference”


Lecturer: prof. Zinoviy Landsman
Instructions:
• Duration of the test: three hours (180 minutes)
• No reference material. The calculator is allowed to be used
• Write in pen and not in pencil.

Problem 1 (25 points)


Given students’ exam scores (grades), X, of the course “Statistical
Inference”:
60, 45, 80, 72, 90, 25
1. Find the volume of the sample (n=?). 3 points
2. Find the sample mean ( X  ? ). 5 points
2
3. Find the sample variance ( S =?) and the sample standard deviation (S=?).
10 points
4. Construct the order statistics. 7 points
k
5. Find X (1)  ?, X ( n )  ?, X 1  ? and quantile of the level   , where k is the
k 1
last number in your ID. 10 points
Problem 2. (25 points)

6. Suppose that the given in Problem 1 students’ scores are distributed


N (  ,  ) , where   E ( X )  65 (is known) and   Var ( X ) is unknown and
needs to be estimated:
a) Find score function in the estimation of  . 5points
b) Find the Fisher information about parameter  . 5 points
c) Construct the Maximum Likelihood (ML) equation. 5 points
d) Find the MLE estimator  n  ? Show that  n is a point of maximum of
log-likelihood function. 5 points
e) Calculate the numerical value of MLE using given data of students’
scores. 5 points
Problem 3. (25 points)
Losses of Insurance company, X, is distributed Pareto distribution, i.e.


X  f ( x,  )  , x  0,  1
(1  x) 1
Given losses:
0.40, 0.25, 0.70, 0.20, 0.70

a)Find MLE of  and calculate its numerical value by the given sample. (5 points)
b) Find Fisher Information about  (5 points)
c) Find the asymptotic confidence interval for parameter  with confidence level   0.98
(10 points)

b) Find length L of confidence interval and calculate its numerical value by the given
sample. (5 points)

Problem 4 (25 points)

Given sample:
0.25, 0.16, 3.2, 0.13, 7.1, 2.2, 0.4

a) Find volume of the sample n=? (3 points)


b) Find X 1  ?, X (1)  ?, X ( n )  ?, Me  X [ n /2]1  ? (7 points)
c) Suppose given sample is distributed Exponentially,

f ( x,  )   exp( x), x  0,   0
Find the Fisher Information about  contained in observation X 1 , I X1 ( )  ? (5 points)
d) Find the MLE estimator of  and calculate its numerical value by the given sample (5
points)
e) Find the Fisher Information about  contained in statistic X (1) , I X (1) ( )  ? (5 points)

Collection of formulas for the exam:

1 n
1) S 2   ( X i  X )2
n i 1
2) Asymptotic confidence Interval is equaled to

 Z1 Z1 
ˆ 2 ˆ 2 
I n  n  , n  


nI ˆn   nI ˆn   

3) Problem 4. Density
f X (1) ( x,  )  n exp(n )

Table 1. Standard Normal Probabilities

z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09


0 0.5 0.503989 0.507978 0.511966 0.515953 0.519939 0.523922 0.527903 0.531881 0.535856
0.1 0.539828 0.543795 0.547758 0.551717 0.55567 0.559618 0.563559 0.567495 0.571424 0.575345
0.2 0.57926 0.583166 0.587064 0.590954 0.594835 0.598706 0.602568 0.60642 0.610261 0.614092
0.3 0.617911 0.62172 0.625516 0.6293 0.633072 0.636831 0.640576 0.644309 0.648027 0.651732
0.4 0.655422 0.659097 0.662757 0.666402 0.670031 0.673645 0.677242 0.680822 0.684386 0.687933
0.5 0.691462 0.694974 0.698468 0.701944 0.705401 0.70884 0.71226 0.715661 0.719043 0.722405
0.6 0.725747 0.729069 0.732371 0.735653 0.738914 0.742154 0.745373 0.748571 0.751748 0.754903
0.7 0.758036 0.761148 0.764238 0.767305 0.77035 0.773373 0.776373 0.77935 0.782305 0.785236
0.8 0.788145 0.79103 0.793892 0.796731 0.799546 0.802337 0.805105 0.80785 0.81057 0.813267
0.9 0.81594 0.818589 0.821214 0.823814 0.826391 0.828944 0.831472 0.833977 0.836457 0.838913
1 0.841345 0.843752 0.846136 0.848495 0.85083 0.853141 0.855428 0.85769 0.859929 0.862143
1.1 0.864334 0.8665 0.868643 0.870762 0.872857 0.874928 0.876976 0.879 0.881 0.882977
1.2 0.88493 0.886861 0.888768 0.890651 0.892512 0.89435 0.896165 0.897958 0.899727 0.901475
1.3 0.9032 0.904902 0.906582 0.908241 0.909877 0.911492 0.913085 0.914657 0.916207 0.917736
1.4 0.919243 0.92073 0.922196 0.923641 0.925066 0.926471 0.927855 0.929219 0.930563 0.931888
1.5 0.933193 0.934478 0.935745 0.936992 0.93822 0.939429 0.94062 0.941792 0.942947 0.944083
1.6 0.945201 0.946301 0.947384 0.948449 0.949497 0.950529 0.951543 0.95254 0.953521 0.954486
1.7 0.955435 0.956367 0.957284 0.958185 0.95907 0.959941 0.960796 0.961636 0.962462 0.963273
1.8 0.96407 0.964852 0.96562 0.966375 0.967116 0.967843 0.968557 0.969258 0.969946 0.970621
1.9 0.971283 0.971933 0.972571 0.973197 0.97381 0.974412 0.975002 0.975581 0.976148 0.976705
2 0.97725 0.977784 0.978308 0.978822 0.979325 0.979818 0.980301 0.980774 0.981237 0.981691
2.1 0.982136 0.982571 0.982997 0.983414 0.983823 0.984222 0.984614 0.984997 0.985371 0.985738
2.2 0.986097 0.986447 0.986791 0.987126 0.987455 0.987776 0.988089 0.988396 0.988696 0.988989
2.3 0.989276 0.989556 0.98983 0.990097 0.990358 0.990613 0.990863 0.991106 0.991344 0.991576
2.4 0.991802 0.992024 0.99224 0.992451 0.992656 0.992857 0.993053 0.993244 0.993431 0.993613
2.5 0.99379 0.993963 0.994132 0.994297 0.994457 0.994614 0.994766 0.994915 0.99506 0.995201
2.6 0.995339 0.995473 0.995604 0.995731 0.995855 0.995975 0.996093 0.996207 0.996319 0.996427
2.7 0.996533 0.996636 0.996736 0.996833 0.996928 0.99702 0.99711 0.997197 0.997282 0.997365
2.8 0.997445 0.997523 0.997599 0.997673 0.997744 0.997814 0.997882 0.997948 0.998012 0.998074
2.9 0.998134 0.998193 0.99825 0.998305 0.998359 0.998411 0.998462 0.998511 0.998559 0.998605
3 0.99865 0.998694 0.998736 0.998777 0.998817 0.998856 0.998893 0.99893 0.998965 0.998999
3.1 0.999032 0.999065 0.999096 0.999126 0.999155 0.999184 0.999211 0.999238 0.999264 0.999289
3.2 0.999313 0.999336 0.999359 0.999381 0.999402 0.999423 0.999443 0.999462 0.999481 0.999499
3.3 0.999517 0.999534 0.99955 0.999566 0.999581 0.999596 0.99961 0.999624 0.999638 0.999651
3.4 0.999663 0.999675 0.999687 0.999698 0.999709 0.99972 0.99973 0.99974 0.999749 0.999758
3.5 0.999767 0.999776 0.999784 0.999792 0.9998 0.999807 0.999815 0.999822 0.999828 0.999835

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Good Luck!

Common questions

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Asymptotic behavior in statistical inference refers to the properties of estimators and statistical tests as the sample size becomes large. In the context of the document, it applies to parameter estimation by suggesting that as the sample size increases, the distribution of estimators approaches a normal distribution, allowing usage of asymptotic confidence intervals .

Fisher Information provides a measure of the amount of information that an observable random variable carries about an unknown parameter. It is used in constructing an asymptotic confidence interval by quantifying the precision of parameter estimates. More Fisher Information implies tighter confidence intervals, indicating more precise parameter estimation .

The MLE for the parameter θ in a Pareto distribution is derived by maximizing the likelihood function specific to the Pareto distribution. For the given losses data (0.40, 0.25, 0.70, 0.20, 0.70), the MLE is calculated as the solution that maximizes the logarithm of the distribution's likelihood function, resulting in an approximate numerical value of θ .

The MLE of θ for normally distributed scores is the sample variance, calculated as 88 from the provided data. Thus, the MLE for θ is 88 .

The length L of a confidence interval is calculated using the formula that incorporates the standard error derived from the Fisher Information of the parameter. For the given sample of Pareto-distributed losses and a 98% confidence level, the length L is determined through standard deviation calculations using the Fisher Information, resulting in a specific numerical value .

A score function is the derivative of the log-likelihood function with respect to the parameter of interest. In the context of estimating the unknown variance θ of student scores following a normal distribution N(μ, θ), the score function S(θ) is calculated by differentiating the log-likelihood function L with respect to θ, given that the mean μ is known .

Fisher Information for parameter λ in an exponential distribution is calculated by taking the second derivative of the log-likelihood function with respect to λ and evaluating the expected value. It is crucial for parameter estimation as it informs the variance of the MLE for λ, affecting the precision of estimations .

The sample variance is calculated using the formula S^2 = (1/n) * Σ(Xi - X̄)^2, where Xi are the individual scores and X̄ is the sample mean. The sample mean is (60 + 45 + 80 + 72 + 90 + 25) / 6 = 62. The variance is S^2 = (1/6) * [(60-62)^2 + (45-62)^2 + (80-62)^2 + (72-62)^2 + (90-62)^2 + (25-62)^2] = 528/6 = 88. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, S = √88 = 9.38 .

The MLE for the variance θ of normally distributed student scores can be derived by solving the equation obtained from setting the score function S(θ) = 0. This involves differentiating the likelihood function with respect to θ and equating to zero. The MLE ensures maximum by checking the second derivative of the log-likelihood function at this point and confirming it's negative .

Order statistics involve arranging the data points from a sample in ascending order. For the exam scores provided, they are arranged as 25, 45, 60, 72, 80, 90. These are the ordered statistics denoted as X(1), X(2), ..., X(6).

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