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Engineering Probability Concepts

The document discusses probability and its applications. It defines probability as the likelihood of an event occurring. It discusses key concepts like sample space, counting rules, permutations, and combinations. Examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities of events using these concepts, such as finding the probability of drawing balls of different colors from a bag.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
28 views4 pages

Engineering Probability Concepts

The document discusses probability and its applications. It defines probability as the likelihood of an event occurring. It discusses key concepts like sample space, counting rules, permutations, and combinations. Examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities of events using these concepts, such as finding the probability of drawing balls of different colors from a bag.

Uploaded by

Marlo Claro
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 1

CE 221-ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS


MODULE 2: PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION

Probability provides information about the likelihood that something will happen.
Meteorologists, for instance, use weather patterns to predict the probability of rain. In
epidemiology, probability theory is used to understand the relationship between
exposures and the risk of health effects.

OBJECTIVES

 Know the applications of Probability.


 Know the application of Counting Rules.

DISCUSSION PROPER

PROBABILITY

Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty of an outcome. The theory
of probability provides methods that will permit us to quantify the chances, or likelihood,
associated with various outcomes of an event.

Probability of an event

The objective of probability is to assign to each event A a number P(A), called the
probability of the event A , which will give a precise measure of the chance that A will
happen.
The probability of an event A is the number of the outcomes favorable to A to the
number of outcomes. If nA is the number of outcomes favorable to event A and N is the
total number of outcomes, the number of outcomes in a sample space, thus
P(A) = nA/N

Properties of Probability
1. Positiveness 0≤P(A) ≤ 1
2. Certainty P(S) = 1, the probability of a sure event

Sample space of an experiment

An experiment is any action or process that generates data. The set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment is the sample space, S. Each outcome is a sample space called
an element or a sample point.

Methods of Describing a Sample Space

1. If the sample space has a finite number of sample points, we may describe the set by
listing the elements separated by commas and enclosed in brackets.

2. If the sample space has large or infinite number of sample points, describe the set by a
statement or rule.

Example 1: If a die is rolled, the sample space S is given by


S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel


Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 2

Example 2: If two coins are tossed, the sample space S is given by


S = {HH,HT,TH,TT} , where H = head and T = tail.

Example 3: If two dice are rolled, the sample space S is given by


S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),
(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),
(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}

Counting Rules Useful in Probability

The Fundamental Counting Principle (also called the counting rule) is a way to figure out
the number of outcomes in a probability problem. Basically, you multiply the events
together to get the total number of outcomes.

Counting techniques

If the number of possible outcomes in an experiment is quite large, the effort of


constructing the list of outcomes becomes prohibitive. By using some counting rules, it is
possible to determine the number of outcomes without listing.

PERMUTATION

A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a group of objects or elements. Order is


an important aspect of permutation.

1. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken n at a time is


𝑃 = 𝑛!

2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is


𝑛!
𝑃 = 𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟 )!

3. The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are identical, n2 are identical …


n or m are identical is
𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑚!

4. The number of permutations of n objects of which n distinct objects are arrange in a


circle is
𝑃 = (𝑛 − 1)!

COMBINATION

Combination is the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to


order.
The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example 4: How many numbers can be formed using all the digits 6, 7, 8, and 9?

Solution: To form different numbers, arrange all the 4 digits and the arrangements are
the number of numbers formed.

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel


Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 3

P=4! = 24 numbers

Example 5: How many distinct permutations are there in the word MILLENNIUM?

Solution: There are 2M’s, 2L’s, 2I’s, 2N’s


P= 10!/2!x2!x2!x2! = 226, 800 ways

Example 6: In how many ways can 4 letters a,b,c and d be arranged in a circle?

Solution:

Using manual counting (a,b,d,c),(a,c,b,d),(a,d,b,c),(a,c,d,b),(a,d,c,b),(a,b,c,d) = 6 ways

Using Permutation Formula, P= (4-1)! = 3! = 6 ways

Example 7: From a box containing 4 defective and 5 non defective items, how many
sample of size 3 are possible.

A. With no restrictions
B. With 1 defective and 2 non defective item
C. Probability of success for letter B

Solution:

a) n = number of ways of selecting 3 from 9


n = 9C3 =9!/(3!(9-3)!) = 9!/3!6! = 84 samples
b) n = Number of samples of 1 defective and 2 non defective
n1, r1 = no. of ways of selecting 1 defective from 4 defective samples
n2, r2 = no. of ways of selecting 2 non defective from 5 non defective samples
n = 4C1 x 5C2 = 4!/1!3! x 5!/2!3!= 4(10) = 40 samples
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 40 10
c) 𝑃 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 84 = 21

Example 8: In the experiment of examining 3 bulbs, find the probability of the following
events:
a.) exactly 2 bulbs are defective
b.) at least 2 bulbs are defective

Solution:
The sample space for this experiment is
S ={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

a.) A = the event that exactly two bulbs are defective.


A = {DDN, DND, NDD}
nA=3
N=8
P(A)=3/8 = 0.375x100 = 37.5%

b.) B = {DDD, DDN, DND, NDD}


nB=4
P(B)=4/8=1/2 x 100 = 50% the event at least two bulbs are defective

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel


Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering 4

Example 9: In a card game, if a hand is holding 5 cards, find the probability that there
will be:
a. 3 aces
b. 4 hearts and 1 diamond

Solution:

a.) A = the event of having 3 aces and 2 of any kind other than aces.
4C3 = number of ways of having 3 aces
48C2 = number of ways of having 2 of any kind
nA = 4C3 x 48C2 = 4,512
N = 52C5 = 2,598,960
P(A) = (4,512)/(2,598,960) = 94/54,145

b.) B = the event holding 4 hearts and 1 diamond


nB = 13C4 x 13C1 = 9,295
P(B) = (9,295)/(2,598,960) = 143/39,984

Example 10: A bag contains eight red balls, four green balls and eight yellow balls. A ball
is drawn at random from the bag, and it is not a red ball. What is the probability that it
is a green ball?

Solution:

8 red balls (excluded because red ball is not part of the balls to be drawn)
4 green balls
8 yellow balls

Let A = the event of having a green ball out of 12 balls


nA = 4C1 = [Link] ways of selecting or picking a green ball.
N = 12C1 =12
P(A) = 4C1/12C1 = 1/6 or 0.333

SUMMARY

The concept of probability is of great importance in everyday life. Statistical analysis is


based on this valuable concept. In fact the role played by probability in modern science
is that of a substitute for certainty.

REFERENCES

Books:
1. Robinson, E. L. (2016). Data Analysis for Scientists and Engineers. Princeton University
Press.

Online
2. [Link]

ISUI-CvE-Mod
Revision: 02
Effectivity: August 1, 2020

Prepared by: Engr. Jerico P. Fiel

Common questions

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In quality control, understanding the probability of defective items helps assess production reliability and make informed decisions to enhance processes. For instance, calculating probabilities such as having exactly two defective bulbs in a sample of three allows for strategic decisions on quality improvements and identifying areas needing attention, based on probabilities (e.g., P(A)=3/8=0.375) of defect occurrence . Such insights into likely defect rates can direct quality assurance measures effectively, aiming to reduce defects.

Understanding the sample space is fundamental in designing probability experiments as it defines all possible outcomes and ensures comprehensive scenario analysis. For example, in a dice-rolling experiment, the sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} explicitly enumerates all outcomes, facilitating accurate probability assignment and outcome understanding . Defining a clear sample space prevents oversight, making sure all potential events and their likelihoods are considered, crucial for valid experiment design and accurate results interpretation. It ensures complete examination and analysis, forming the bedrock of reliable probabilistic studies.

Probability theory acts as a substitute for certainty in scientific fields by quantifying and managing the uncertainty inherent in experimental observations and predictions. It allows for the estimation of event likelihoods in situations where deterministic conclusions are unattainable, guiding decisions under uncertainty. For example, in epidemiology, probability is used to infer the risk of health effects from exposures, providing data-driven foundations to inform public health strategies despite the inherent variability and complexity of biological systems . This probabilistic approach enables rigorous analysis and informed decision-making even when absolute certainty is not feasible.

Counting rules simplify the determination of outcomes in probability by allowing calculations based on mathematical principles rather than exhaustive listings. These include permutations, useful when order matters, and combinations when order does not. For example, the number of permutations of n distinct objects is calculated as n!, and the number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time as nCr = n! / (r!(n-r)!). These principles enable efficient computation of possible outcomes and probabilities without the need for manual enumeration.

Meteorologists use probability to enhance weather prediction by integrating probabilistic models into forecasting systems, allowing for the estimation of likelihoods of weather events, such as rainfall, from patterns and historical data sets. These models account for variability and uncertainty, providing forecasts with confidence intervals. By predicting the probability of rain based on underlying physical processes and data analysis, meteorologists refine their predictions, offering more accurate forecasts and enabling better-informed public decisions regarding weather preparedness . Such probabilistic insights help communicate not just potential weather conditions but their expected likelihood, enhancing forecast reliability and usability.

A sample space in probability is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, helping to understand and represent the complete range of possibilities comprehensively. Finite sample spaces can be described by listing elements in brackets, while larger or infinite sample spaces require rules or statements. For instance, rolling a die results in a sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} , illustrating all possible results in a structured form that facilitates probability analysis.

Probability plays a crucial role in epidemiology by quantifying the risk associated with health exposures and outcomes. It enhances understanding through models that estimate the likelihood of developing conditions given certain exposure levels, guiding interventions and public health policies. For instance, probability determines associations between lifestyle factors and disease risks, using statistical models to predict occurrences and inform preventive measures based on these statistical relationships . This quantification aids in the attribution of health outcomes to causes, offering a structured approach to identifying and mitigating health risks.

Permutations and combinations find practical applications in organizing and planning everyday activities. Permutations are used in arranging schedules where order matters, such as seating plans for an event or task sequences. Combinations are applied in situations like selecting team members where the order is irrelevant, such as choosing a committee. For instance, permutations help determine how many different arrangements of participants are possible in a game show bracket, while combinations assist in understanding how many ways a certain number of players can form a sub-team from a larger group without concern for lineup order . These mathematical tools simplify decision-making and planning tasks by offering formula-based outcome determinations.

Permutations and combinations differ mainly regarding the importance of order. Permutations consider the arrangement order of objects, calculated as n!/(n-r)! for n objects taken r at a time, making them suitable for sequences. Combinations ignore order, calculated as nCr = n!/(r!(n-r)!), and are apt for group selections. For example, the distinct arrangement of letters in 'MILLENNIUM' applies permutations, while selecting a subset of players from a team uses combinations . Each approach serves specific scenarios in probability depending on whether sequence or grouping is paramount.

Probability has key properties including positiveness, which states that 0≤P(A)≤1 for any event A, ensuring probabilities are non-negative and do not exceed one, and certainty, indicating that P(S)=1, where S is the sample space that accounts for all possible outcomes of an experiment . These properties guide probability calculations by ensuring that assigned probabilities reflect realistic likelihoods and that the total probability of all possible outcomes equals one, allowing effective probability modeling in uncertainty contexts.

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