Assignment On
System Dynamics
Course Title: Environmental Modelling
Course Code: ESD355
Submitted To:
Zakia Sultana
Assistant professor,
Dept. of Environmental Science &
disaster Management
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
Science and Technology University,
Gopalganj.
Submitted By:
Name: Md. Tamal Hasan
ID: 17ESD128
rd
Year: 3
Semester:2nd
Section: 2017-2018
Dept. of Environmental Science &
disaster Management
BSMRSTU.
Date of Submission: 1 February, 2022
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology
University Gopalganj-8100
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Table of contents
1. Environment…………………………03
2. Concepts of System Dynamics….......03
3. Environmental System Dynamics......03
4. System………………………………03
4.2. System history………………….03-04
4.3. Type of system dynamic……04
4.3.1. In open systems………….04
4.3.2. Feedback systems……….….04-05
[Link]. Positive feedback…05
[Link]. Negative feedback...05
5. Model…………………….…………05
5.2. Classification………….……..06
6. Causer Loop Diagram………………..06
6.2. [Link] loop thinking………..06
6.3. Loop system diagram…………..06-07
7. Stock flow diagram…………………...07
7.2. Diagram………………………08
8. Social and economic system………….….08
9. Conclusion……………………………..…08
10. References………………………….….…09
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[Link]:
The natural environment or natural world encompasses all living and non-living things
occurring naturally, meaning in this case not artificial. The term is most often applied to
the Earth or some parts of Earth.
[Link] of System Dynamics:
System dynamics is a methodology based on feedback systems borrowed from control
theory, and it can handle easily the non-linearity and time-delay and the multi-loop
structures of the complex and dynamic systems. Forrester’s methodology provides a
foundation for constructing computer models to do what the human mind cannot do
rationally analyses the structure, interactions and modes of behavior of complex social
systems, thus providing a framework whereby strategies can be tested and trade-offs can
be performed, while options are still open.
Many software such as STELLA, VENSIM, and POWERSIM are nowadays available
which have revolutionized the system dynamics modelling. Furthermore, this software
are icon operated and allow us to model virtually any process or system.
[Link] System Dynamics:
The Environmental SIG was established in 2002 as a Special Interest Group of the
System Dynamics Society. The Group is interested in systems of any scale that involve
human activities and their natural environment. We seek to investigate and comprehend
their dynamic behaviors, and find beneficial interventions in our human-created and
managed systems, and implementation processes that contribute to sustainable
development.
[Link]:
The following aspects of systems thinking are very important for studying the dynamic
behaviors of the complex system and need attention to develop the model based on
systems thinking:
1. Thinking in terms of cause-and-effect relationships
2. Focusing on the feedback linkages among components of a system
3. Determining the appropriate boundaries for defining what is to be included within a
system
We are interested to study and examine the dynamic behaviors of systems containing
biological, agricultural, aquacultural, environmental, technological and socio-economic
component.
[Link] history:
System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay W. Forrester of the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Forrester arrived at MIT in 1939 for graduate
study in electrical engineering.
During the late 1950s and early 1960s, Forrester and a team of graduate students moved
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the emerging field of system dynamics from the hand-simulation stage to the formal
computer modeling stage. Richard Bennett created the first system dynamics computer
modeling language called SIMPLE (Simulation of Industrial Management Problems with
Lots of Equations) in the spring of 1958. In 1959, Phyllis Fox and Alexander Pugh wrote
the first version of DYNAMO (Dynamic Models), an improved version of SIMPLE, and
the system dynamics language became the industry standard for over thirty years.
Forrester published the first, and still classic, book in the field titled Industrial Dynamics
in 1961.
In 1947, the MIT Digital Computer Laboratory was founded and placed under the
direction of Jay Forrester. The Laboratory’s first task was the creation of WHIRLWIND
I, MIT’s first general-purpose digital computer, and an environment for testing whether
digital computers could be effectively used for the control of combat information systems
On the plane back from the Bern meeting, Forrester created the first draft of a system
dynamics model of the world’s socioeconomic system. He called this model WORLD1.
Upon his return to the United States, Forrester refined WORLD1 in preparation for a visit
to MIT by members of the Club of Rome. Forrester called the refined version of the
model WORLD2. Forrester published WORLD2 in a book titled World Dynamics.
Participatory system dynamics modelling uses system dynamics perspective in which
stakeholders or clients participate to some degree in different stages of the model building
process. Participatory system dynamics modelling is more than simply eliciting
knowledge from clients about the problem and the system.
[Link] of system dynamic:
(a) Open systems.
(b) Feedback systems.
[Link] open systems: The output responds to input, but output has no influence on
the input. Also, the input is not aware of its own performance. In an open system, past
action does not affect the future action. For example, a watch is not aware of its
inaccuracy and does not correct the time itself. In an open system, the problem is
perceived and action is taken, but the result does not influence action. Filling up a water
tank without controlling the valve is an example of open loop system.
Fig.1: Open system
[Link] systems:
Feedback systems are closed loop systems, and the inputs are changed on the basis of
output. A feedback system has a closed loop structure that brings back the results of the
past action to control the future action. In a closed system, the problem is perceived,
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action is taken and the result influences the further action Thus, the distinguishing feature
of a closed loop system is a feedback path of information, decision and action connecting
the output to input.
Fig.2: Feedback system
Feedback system may be classified as either:
• positive feedback systems
• negative feedback systems
[Link].Positive feedback systems generate growth. Population growth system is an
example of positive feedback systems. Population multiplies to produce more population
which increases the growth rate at which the population is increased. Thus, positive
feedback system generates growth.
[Link].Negative feedback systems are goal seeking. When the room temperature is
controlled by a thermostat or temperature controller, the system tries to maintain the set
temperature. When the heater is turned on, the temperature increases to set point and then
heater is turned off. The temperature reaches ultimately equilibrium and thus, the system
is goal seeking. The temperature control system in a room is an example of a negative
feedback System.
[Link]:
A model may be defined as a substitute of any object or system. Everyone uses models
in their daily life. A mental image used in thinking is a model, and it is not may the real
system. A written description of a system is a model that presents one aspect of reality.
The simulation model is logically complete and describes the dynamic behavior of the
system.
Models can be broadly classified as:
• physical models
• abstract models
Children’s model of car and aeroplane are examples of physical models.
Mental models and mathematical models are examples of abstract models.
A model is a dynamic if it portrays time-varying characteristics; otherwise, the model is
static. Steady state and transient characteristics are the properties of the dynamic systems,
whereas in static systems, the characteristics do not undergo substantial change in time.
In dynamic systems the system states change substantially in time.
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[Link] models can be classified as many types.
[Link] Loop Diagram:
A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a causal diagram that aids in visualizing how different
variables in a system are causally interrelated. The diagram consists of a set of words and
arrows. Causal loop diagrams are accompanied by a narrative which describes the
causally closed situation the CLD describes. Closed loops, or causal feedback loops, in
the diagram are very important features of CLDs.
[Link] loop thinking/Open system diagram:
It is a system that has flows of information, energy, and/or matter between the system
and its environment, and which adapts to the exchange. This a fundamental systems
science definition.
Fig.3: One loop thinking
[Link] system diagram:
Loop diagrams are the most detailed form of diagrams for a control system and thus it
must contain all details omitted by PFDs and P&IDs alike. ... Cable numbers, wire
colours, junction block numbers, panel identification, and grounding points are all shown
in loop diagrams.
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Fig.4: Loop system diagram
7.1. Stock flow diagram:
Stock and flow (or Level and Rate) diagrams are ways of representing the structure of a
system with more detailed information than is shown in a causal loop diagram. Stocks
(Levels) are fundamental to generating behaviours in a system; flows (Rates) cause
stocks to change.
The stock–flow diagram is the underlying physical structure of the system in terms of
stock and flow. Stock–flow diagram is usually followed after the causal loop diagram.
However, the causal loop diagram can follow the stock–flow diagram. The stock
represents the state or condition of the system, and the flow is changed by decisions based
on the condition of the system. It is essentially the physical structure of the system and
can be simulated to generate the dynamic behaviour of the system. The stock–flow
diagram represents integral finite difference equations involving the variables of the
feedback loop structure of the system and simulates the dynamic behaviour of the system.
The following steps are followed in the development of stock–flow diagram:
o Define the problem and the objectives.
o Identify the most important variables of the systems.
o Identify the secondary important variables of the systems.
o Identify the tertiary important variable of the systems.
o Identify the variables representing the stocks, i.e. accumulations.
o Identify the variables representing the flows having a unit of per unit time of the
o stock.
o Ensure the inflows entering the stock and outflow leaving the stock.
Fig.5: Stock flow diagram population model
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7.2. The diagram:
Of these variables are inflow (birth rate) and outflow (death rate to the stock of
population), and these are shown in Fig.2. The birth rate depends on the population size
and birth fraction, while death rate depends on the population size and death fraction.
8.0. Why social and economic systems are highly complex:
During recent years we have witnessed a systematic progress in the understanding of
complex systems, both in the case of particular systems that are classified into this group
and, in general, as regards the phenomenon of complexity. This is possible owing to an
outburst of research interest in the science of complexity and a joint effort made by the
researchers representing different disciplines and backgrounds which resulted in the
enormous number of interdisciplinary studies carried out. This progress has been
achieved on both the theoretical, model, and experimental levels. However, in order to
comprehend the complexity in full detail, much is still to be done.
9.0. Conclusion:
A system dynamics model of supply chain of rice milling systems in Bangladesh is
developed for policy analysis, and the retail inventory is fully stabilised for eco-
nomic order quality and reordering point resulting in an efficient and sustainable
supply chain network.
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References:
Ahmed R (2000) Liberalization of agricultural input markets in Bangladesh. In: Ahmed
R, Haggblade S, Choudhury T (eds) Out of the shadow of famine: evolving food markets
and food policy in Bangladesh, pp 49–72
Apaiah KA, Hendrix EMT (2005) Design of a supply chain network for pea-based novel
protein foods. J Food Eng 70:383–391
Apaiah KA, Hendrix EMT, Meerdink G, Linnermann R (2005) Qualitative methodology
for efficient food chain design. Trends Food Sci Technol 16:204–214
Bala BK (1975) Applications of control theory to the dynamic behaviour of agricultural
commodities. M. Eng. thesis, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand Bala BK
(1990) Applications of control theory to the dynamic behaviour of agricultural
commodities. Syst Dyn Int J Policy Model 3(1&2):87–100
Bala BK (1999) Principles of system dynamics. Agrotech Publishing Academy, Udaipur
Bala BK, Bhuiyan MGK, Alam M, Fatimah MA, Alias EF, Sidique SF (2015) Modeling
of supply chain of rice milling systems in Bangladesh. Institute of Agricultural and Food
Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia
BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2011) Statistical Pocket Bangladesh – 2011.
Statistics and Information Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of People’s
Republic of Bangladesh Bhuiyan MGK (2014) Milled rice value chain in Bangladesh
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