Trading is the Hardest Way to make Easy Money
“Trading is the hardest way to make easy money” Robert Krausz
Now I know that Robert wasn’t the first person to coin the quote above, but he
certainly said it enough times to have some sort of rights to it.
Sometimes the markets just don’t do what you would like them to do – and at
other times they do….
At our May Forecasting Conference we identified the 8th of Aug and the 19th
Sept as potential reversal points. Ideally, I was expecting the 19th of Sept to be a
low.
But the shape of the market is not quite playing ball. The market doesn’t need to
fall a lot to create a low for us to spring off, but for a low to occur it will need to
fall a few more points.
It’s frustrating you know. There’s a lot of time and effort that’s been invested in
calculating these points and more infuriatingly there is enormous logic as to why
the markets should make a low around here then spring board into the
stratosphere!
But has anyone told the market?
Or is the market just behaving like my teenage son?!
It’s time to ensure that we trade the market and not the forecast here. Although
the 19th looked like an awesome place for a reversal and the seasonal dates
clocked in while we were enjoying ourselves over the weekend, the market still
needs to decline a few points from here to have this reversal point play out.
Should this happen – BEAUTY! It will be ALL systems go!
If it doesn’t, then we will need to screw up all the work we have expended and
place it in the trash along with any of our emotional baggage that we have
created along with such a prediction.
Remember, we always need to trade the market and not the forecast, no
matter how emotionally taxing or boring this may be.
Because the market hasn’t played out how we would have liked we have
reassessed our forecast and introduced two more dates to watch for a potential
reversal point.
• September 28th
• October 15th
Both these dates are additional dates to watch on the All Ords. The DJI, FTSE &
NASDAQ all had the 15th October identified in our May 2018 Economic
Forecasting Almanac.
What we are seeing here is a really great example of the need to trade the
market and not the forecast.
Sometimes traders feel that they need to buy and sell actively in the markets
because they see themselves as “traders” and “traders” execute!
But trading for the action, excitement or just to fulfil the persona of who you
identify with, will turn trading into a VERY expensive hobby….
SO, lets watch the next few identified dates and meticulously execute our written
trading plans.
Equinox
Forecasted Date
Forecasted Date
Cheers, Jeremy
24th September 2018
Any advice in this document should be considered General Advice only and does not take into account your personal needs and objectives or your financial circumstances. You should
therefore consider these matters yourself before deciding whether the advice is appropriate to you and whether you should act upon it. Past performance is NO guarantee of future
performance. Authorised Representative of PGW Financial Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 123 835 441 AFSL 384713. Copyright 2018 All rights reserved.