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Linear Regression Analysis Example

Five students took a math aptitude test before a statistics course and their scores were analyzed to develop a linear regression model predicting statistics performance. The regression equation found was ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x, where x is the aptitude score. This model explained 48% of the variation in statistics grades. It was estimated that a student scoring 75 on the aptitude test would receive a statistics grade of around 75.

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Muhammad hanzla
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73 views3 pages

Linear Regression Analysis Example

Five students took a math aptitude test before a statistics course and their scores were analyzed to develop a linear regression model predicting statistics performance. The regression equation found was ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x, where x is the aptitude score. This model explained 48% of the variation in statistics grades. It was estimated that a student scoring 75 on the aptitude test would receive a statistics grade of around 75.

Uploaded by

Muhammad hanzla
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Last year, five randomly selected students took a math aptitude test before they began their

statistics course. The Statistics Department has three questions.

● What linear regression equation best predicts statistics performance, based on math
aptitude scores?
● If a student made 75 on the aptitude test, what grade would we expect her to make
in statistics?

Student Xi Yi

1 95 85
2 85 95
3 80 70
4 70 65
5 60 70

The Xi column shows scores on the aptitude test and the Y i column shows statistics grades.

Student xi yi (xi-xm) (yi-y)


1 95 85 17 8
2 85 95 7 18
3 80 70 2 -7
4 70 65 -8 -12
5 60 70 -18 -7
Sum 390 385
Mean 78 77
And for each student, we also need to compute the squares of the deviation scores (the last two columns
in the table below).
Student xi yi (xi-x)2 (yi-y)2
1 95 85 289 64
2 85 95 49 324
3 80 70 4 49
4 70 65 64 144
5 60 70 324 49
Sum 390 385 730 630

Mean 78 77

And finally, for each student, we need to compute the product of the deviation scores.

Student xi yi (xi-x)(yi-y)
1 95 85 136
2 85 95 126
3 80 70 -14
4 70 65 96
5 60 70 126
Sum 390 385 470
Mean 78 77

The regression equation is a linear equation of the form: ŷ = b 0 + b1x . To conduct a regression analysis,
we need to solve for b0 and b1. Computations are shown below. Notice that all of our inputs for the
regression analysis come from the above three tables.

First, we solve for the regression coefficient (b1):

b1 = Σ [ (xi - x)(yi - y) ] / Σ [ (xi - x)2]

b1 = 470/730

b1 = 0.644

Once we know the value of the regression coefficient (b1), we can solve for the regression slope (b0):

b0 = y - b1 * x

b0 = 77 - (0.644)(78)

b0 = 26.768

Therefore, the regression equation is: ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x .

If a student made an 75 on the aptitude test, the estimated statistics grade (ŷ) would be:

ŷ = b0 + b1x

ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x = 26.768 + 0.644 * 75

ŷ = 26.768 + 48.3 = 75.068


2 ∑ ( y i−^y i )
2

R =1− = 0.48
∑ ( y i− y ) 2
0.48 indicates that about 48% of the variation in statistics grades (the dependent variable) can be
explained by the relationship to math aptitude scores (the independent variable). This would be
considered a good fit to the data.

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Deviation scores were computed as differences between individual scores and mean scores. These were used to calculate the sum of squares for deviations and the sum of products of deviations, which in turn helped derive the regression coefficient b1 (by dividing the sum of products by the sum of squares of deviations).

The mean values of xi and yi are central values around which deviations are calculated. They affect the calculation of the regression equation by serving as reference points for computing deviation scores, which subsequently influence the slope (b1) and the intercept (b0) of the regression line .

The intercept b0 = 26.768 represents the predicted statistics grade when the math aptitude score is zero. Although a score of zero is unrealistic in practical scenarios, it provides a baseline from which the impact of aptitude scores on predicted grades can be understood .

Despite an R^2 of 0.48 indicating that less than half of the variance is explained, it may still be considered a good fit if other factors are understood to influence performance, or because explaining nearly half of the variance with one predictor can be seen as significant in complex social phenomena such as education .

The R^2 value of 0.48 indicates that 48% of the variance in the statistics grades can be explained by the linear relationship with math aptitude scores. This suggests a moderately strong model fit for explaining the grades based on aptitude scores .

A low regression coefficient, such as 0.644 in this analysis, implies that changes in the math aptitude scores have a smaller effect on predicting statistics grades. Although it reflects a positive relationship, the influence is relatively moderate, indicating other factors may also significantly impact statistics performance .

Using the regression equation ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x, if a student scored 75 on the aptitude test, the expected statistics grade is ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644 * 75 = 75.068 .

Introducing additional variables in the model could potentially increase the R^2 value, as more of the variance in statistics grades might be explained. This would indicate a better model fit, though care must be taken as adding too many variables may lead to overfitting .

The regression equation is ŷ = 26.768 + 0.644x. It was derived by calculating the regression coefficient b1 and the regression slope b0 using the following formulas: b1 = Σ [(xi - x)(yi - y)] / Σ [(xi - x)^2] = 470/730 = 0.644, and b0 = y - b1 * x = 77 - (0.644)(78) = 26.768 .

Computing deviation products involves calculating the product of each pair of deviations from the mean for the predictor and response variables. This step is crucial as it helps determine the direction and strength of the relationship between variables, culminating in the calculation of the regression coefficient b1 .

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