PREPUBLICATION RELEASE

By Bruce Blair

Strengthening Checks
on Presidential Nuclear
Launch Authority

U
.S. nuclear launch protocol has arsenal, particularly the silo-based missile
force and the bomber fleet in its normal
peacetime posture.3
important virtues and serious Despite fast-flying inbound warheads,
the protocol on paper provides enough
liabilities. Major changes are needed time for detecting and assessing an attack,
convening an emergency conference
to constrain a president who would seek to between the president and his top
nuclear advisers, briefing the president
initiate the first use of nuclear weapons without on his options and their consequences,
authenticating the president’s decision,
apparent cause and to prevent him or her from and formatting and transmitting a launch
order to the launch crews in time to

being pushed into making nuclear retaliatory ensure the survival and execution of
their forces.
The flip side of these virtues are serious
decisions in haste. liabilities. The protocol concentrates
authority and emphasizes speed to such
The virtues of the protocol—the capability, as well as of launch authority, a degree that it may allow a president to
procedures and timelines for ordering the to the highest practical level.1 railroad the nuclear commanders into
use of nuclear weapons and for carrying Second, it is designed to allow the initiating a first strike without apparent
out such an order—are twofold. First, president and the nuclear forces under cause and quickly executing an order that
it concentrates launch authority at the his command to respond rapidly and may be horrifyingly misguided, illegal, or
highest level of the executive branch, the decisively in the face of an enemy attack both. A demented commander-in-chief
presidency, taking it out of the hands of by nuclear-armed missiles that can fly could start a nuclear conflagration that no
the military and others. This is a function from the opposite side of the planet one could forestall, veto, or stop.
of paramount importance. The principle to U.S. territory in 30 minutes or from Equally deleterious, a president can
of civilian control over weapons of mass forward-deployed submarines in 15 become hostage to the protocol itself,
destruction must never be compromised. minutes.2 This is of critical importance like a conductor on a runaway train, if an
Together with the imposition of in view of the acute vulnerability of enemy nuclear strike appears underway.
organizational and technical safeguards U.S. nuclear command, control, and He may be pushed into hastily ordering
on the weapons and their handlers, the communications, as well as of a large “retaliation” in response to a false alarm.
protocol elevates the locus of launch portion of the U.S. strategic nuclear Rationality would be lost in the fog of

Bruce Blair is a member of the Princeton University research faculty in the Program on Science and Global Security and co-founder of Global
Zero, an international movement for the elimination of nuclear weapons.

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From a Navy E-6 Mercury flying above the Pacific Ocean, an Air Force officer monitors the status of an unarmed Minuteman III
missile being test launched April 26, 2017 from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, by a control system aboard the aircraft. The E-6,
a version of the commercial Boeing 707 aircraft, is intended to provide a survivable communication link from the president and other
elements of the National Command Authority to the U.S. nuclear forces. (Photo: Keifer Bowes/U.S. Air Force)

crisis under a short deadline fraught with advisers via a secure communications The advisers may or may not join the
confusion and emotion. network designed to support nuclear conference in a timely way. If a brewing
emergency actions. The president could crisis suddenly escalates and catches
Protocol for Intentional initiate this conference anytime, even them off guard, key advisers may fail to
First Use abruptly in the night, through his get on the call before a president decides
If the president wishes to order the first military aide who is always nearby with the time to strike has arrived. During
use of nuclear weapons, he would be the “football”—a satchel containing the nuclear release exercises and real-world
expected to do so in close consultation nuclear war plans, including a one-pager incidents involving North Korea and
with his top national security advisers, graphically depicting the major options at other nations over the past decade,
particularly the secretaries of defense and his disposal. missile launch preparations or actual
state (statutory advisers on the National The best location for conferencing firings posing a potential threat triggered
Security Council), the chairman of the would be the blast-resistant emergency emergency conferences, but notification
Joint Chiefs of Staff, the national security operations center under the East Wing often failed to reach key advisers in time.
adviser, and the senior generals who of the White House. Advisers could Sometimes none of the advisers checked
command the military forces. Depending be assembled there, and others linked in, leaving the president and the head of
on the urgency of the situation, this could by secure phone. Such a conference Strategic Command (StratCom), whose
be a protracted process with extensive could be convened almost anywhere, role is to brief the president on nuclear
planning, heightened force readiness, from Mar-a-Lago or other locations or options and their consequences, alone in
and regular briefings of the president, aboard his ground-transport vehicles and the hot seats.5
or it could be truncated to minutes if an dedicated aircraft, including Air Force After this briefing, the president may
imminent attack is perceived. One and his “doomsday” plane.4 Secure seek advice from any, all, or none of the
When a decision is imminent, the communications are far less reliable when advisers in the room or on the telephone
process goes critical. The commander- the president is traveling or in the process before rendering a decision, which likely
in-chief would be connected to his key of being evacuated to a safe location. but not necessarily involves choosing a

ARMS CONTROL TODAY January/February 2018 7

 PREPUBLICATION RELEASE
preprogrammed option.6 Formally, he directly to the submarine, bomber, and prior raising of alert readiness, however,
does not need any approval or consent, underground launch crews. the boats would surface to confirm
although StratCom or others on the call This would take a couple of minutes. its validity.
could attempt to dissuade the president Shorter than the length of a “tweet,” the Bombers on full alert with bombs and
if his thinking or final decision veer into order would specify the war plan, the cruise missiles loaded,11 as they would be
the realm of the obviously misguided or time to begin the strike, an unlock code in times of heightened tension, would
illegal.7 Even the defense secretary has no needed by the firing crews to release their need eight hours or so to fly from their
particular role other than offering advice weapons, and a Sealed Authentication U.S. bases to near the border of their
if asked. Contrary to widespread belief, he Code that must match the codes in the target countries, where they would
does not confirm the order or otherwise firing crews’ safe. If the codes match, the fire cruise missiles at inland targets or
bless it in any way. But this is their last crews assume the order originated with proceed to fly into enemy airspace to
chance to change the president’s mind the president, even though all the codes drop gravity bombs. They could deliver
before a formal launch order is prepared in the launch order are held exclusively upward of 500 weapons.
by the Pentagon, disseminated, and by the Pentagon war room and alternate
inexorably implemented. command centers such as StratCom itself. Protocol for Second-Strike
Listening in on the exchange is the The underground Minuteman crews Scenarios
Pentagon war room, a kind of boutique could complete their launch checklist in A decision to strike back in retaliation
service dedicated to executing the a little more than a minute. Today, as theoretically could be drawn out for
orders of the president and the defense many as 400 missiles could be launched days and weeks, but the protocol is
secretary.8 Following the drift of the from their underground silos in less than designed to yield one in minutes. The
conversation, this entity would start five minutes after the president gave basic procedures are the same for first
preparing a launch order. When the the order.9 and second use of nuclear weapons,
president finally declares his choice of Submarines and bombers would be the but the timelines shrink in the latter
option, it would challenge the president primary attackers in a scenario involving case. Reactions from the bottom to the
to authenticate using a special code North Korea. With two boats typically on top of the chain of command to an
known as the “biscuit,” or Gold Code. launch-ready patrol in the Pacific Ocean, apparent attack are driven by checklists
This would take a few seconds. If the the sub force would be capable of quickly and virtually preordained. The action
codes match properly, it would quickly firing about 200 warheads roughly 15 could be described as a rote enactment
format and transmit a launch order over minutes after the president gave the of a prepared script with very high
multiple communications channels order.10 If the order came without a expectations in all quarters that a
nuclear response would be authorized
immediately.
Historically, the notion of riding out an
attack has been operationally anathema
to the military. As General Lee Butler, a
former head of the strategic forces, stated,
“Our policy was premised on being able
to accept the first wave of attacks….
Yet at the operational level it was never
accepted…. They built a construct that
powerfully biased the president’s decision
process toward launch before the arrival
of the first enemy warhead…a move in
practice to a system structured to drive
the president invariably toward a decision
to launch under attack.”12
This is called “jamming” the president,
or pressuring him to quickly authorize
retaliation while under apparent or
confirmed attack.13 Jamming is still the
norm in current nuclear operations.
Although President Barack Obama
directed the Pentagon to reduce our
reliance on launch on warning and find
The so-called nuclear football, kept close to a president by a military aide, is a ways to increase warning and decision
briefcase containing nuclear war plans and options (not communications gear) to time, nuclear exercises still feature this
enable a president to act in an emergency. This retired satchel was put on display at
high-pressure tactic. In some high-threat
the Smithsonian National Museum of American History.
(Photo: Jamie Chung/Smithsonian Institute) situations, the StratCom commander’s

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U.S. Navy Admiral Cecil Haney (right), then-U.S. Strategic Command commander, and other officers monitor from Offutt Air
Force Base, Neb., a Minuteman III missile test launch at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., May 20, 2015. Presidents from Dwight
Eisenhower through Ronald Reagan pre-delegated nuclear release authority extensively to military commanders. Recognizing that
could compromise civilian control, such delegation was rolled back at the end of the Cold War. (USSTRATCOM courtesy photo)

briefing of the president may be are more missile launches than ever to and irrational decision-making leading
compressed to as little as 30 seconds, track, and assessing whether they pose a to incoherent operations and further
and then the president may be pressed threat has become more difficult.15 escalation are unacceptably high.
to “deliberate and decide” in six minutes Ironically this surge, which has This terrifying reality has been ignored
or less. happened over the past decade or so, for decades. Reform is long overdue.
The persistent vulnerability of the has spawned great unpredictability, This means that the current prompt-
nuclear command system and hundreds complicated assessment, and led on launch posture must be drastically
of U.S. missiles requires extremely fast multiple occasions to presidents being altered. Use-or-lose forces such as
reaction at all levels. In truth, everyone notified of an ambiguous imminent the silo-based missile force should
gets jammed. The risk of mistaken launch threat in progress.16 be eliminated. Launch on warning
on false warning remains significant even should be eliminated. Reducing the
today, 25 years after the end of the Cold Reforms: Toward a True vulnerability of command, control, and
War. It also creates pressure to pre-empt Retaliatory Posture communications to kinetic attack and
an imminent attack. A six-minute deadline for deliberation cyberattack should be the top priority of
To relieve the jamming pressure today, and decision is ridiculous. The president the nuclear modernization plan, even if it
the protocol must start earlier and under needs much more warning and decision means cutting spending on replacement
conditions of greater uncertainty about time to rationally cope with indications forces in the pipeline. The submarine
the degree of threat posed by missile of a nuclear attack on the United States or force has already become the premier
launch preparations or actual firings. its allies. He must no longer be jammed leg of the strategic triad, the central
During the Cold War, even the really to authorize what could be a civilization- component of U.S. deterrence policy.
close calls did not rise to the level of ending response to attack indications that This force can patiently wait for months
presidential notification.14 Today, there may be false. The risks of miscalculation for direction from higher authority.

ARMS CONTROL TODAY January/February 2018 9

 PREPUBLICATION RELEASE

Protesters from the Global Zero movement attend a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing November 14, 2017, on the
authority to order the use of nuclear weapons. (Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Equally overdue is the adoption of which nuclear weapons may be used unless Congress has declared war and
a policy that eschews the first use of first in response to non-nuclear strategic provided specific authorization for their
nuclear weapons. A clear marker would aggression and toward revoking Obama- use. The president would still retain the
be established in limiting the president’s era assurances given to non-nuclear authority to order their use in the event
leeway to initiate a first strike.17 If taken countries that the United States would of a confirmed nuclear attack against the
seriously, the operational plans would never attack them with nuclear weapons. United States or U.S. allies.
also be modified in ways that would The key challenge is moving to a The bill might tie the president’s hands
hamstring any effort to order the use of true retaliatory posture19 that allows the too much in some situations, such as
nuclear weapons without apparent cause. president and his successors to provide an imminent and seemingly irrevocable
Congress has considerable legal enduring command and control over the nuclear strike by a country such as North
standing to pass legislation that prohibits submarine force. The nuclear protocol Korea. Even if it did not, it might take too
first use. A recent bill introduced by would thus place priority on their quick long to secure congressional approval.
Representative Adam Smith (D-Wash.) is and safe evacuation to survivable and Additionally, if specific authorization is
a step in this direction,18 but a law would enduring command centers. granted but the crisis drags on or takes
draw real redlines around the policy. a turn in unanticipated directions, the
Crossing them would make the president Other Promising Reforms president would remain empowered and
accountable and even impeachable. No single reform suffices. A combination could still unilaterally make a terribly bad
The Trump administration appears to of reforms is needed to reduce risk. call later.
be heading in the opposite direction. Its The Markey-Lieu bill. The premise The Betts/Waxman solution. Among
nuclear review in the works is leaning of this bill is that employing nuclear the many proposals for adding more
toward the deployment of smaller-yield weapons is tantamount to going to war people to the chain of command,
nuclear weapons (e.g., a primary-only and this responsibility belongs to the one of the strongest is to require the
warhead on Trident missiles) that will U.S. Congress, not the president, under defense secretary to confirm that a
make them more usable in both first- and Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution.20 The presidential first-use order came from
second-use scenarios. It is also leaning president therefore is to be prohibited the president and the attorney general
toward widening the conditions under from employing nuclear weapons first to certify that it is a legal order.21 This

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reform would address the growing
danger of cyber intrusion generating
deceptive presidential commands and No single reform suffices.
authentications, and it adds a high-level
legal oversight to first-use decisions. If
A combination of reforms
the latter is going to be more than a
rubber stamp, however, much deeper
is needed to reduce risk.
consideration of the legal issues will have
to be undertaken and firm guidelines
drawn in advance. use of nuclear forces, the vice president prevent North Korea from acquiring the
Although it is debatable whether could consider whether the president’s ability to deliver a nuclear warhead by
Congress has the standing to dictate state of mind warranted invoking the missile to any target in the United States
the chain of command within the 25th Amendment. would be illegal if it means mounting
executive branch, whose commander-in- The Nuremburg solution. Both a former a preventive conventional or nuclear
chief possesses clear authority over the and the current head of StratCom recently strike, and no clear indication that the
armed forces under Article 2 of the U.S. claimed publicly that disobeying an illegal military would ever resist such orders on
Constitution, Congress could press the nuclear strike order offers a safeguard legal grounds.
Pentagon to devise its own solution that against a president gone berserk.22 They The literature on the law of war,
thickens the protocol with additional were attempting to allay the widespread international humanitarian law, and
heads. Congress could exert its power concern about the temperament and other constraints on the use of force such
over the purse to encourage compliance, character of the current commander-in- as Articles 2 and 51 of the UN Charter,
for instance by withholding funds for chief and the perception that the nuclear a treaty to which the United States is
nuclear modernization until the executive forces are under erratic and unreliable bound by law to observe, indicates that
branch reformed the protocol in a control. If not staunched, these worries much is amiss already in U.S. nuclear
satisfactory way. could generate public hysteria and war planning. It is a stretch indeed to
Deepening consultation with Congress. put the $1.3 trillion 30-year nuclear reconcile these legal tenets with a nuclear
In order to further check and balance modernization program in jeopardy. target plan that includes upward of 1,500
the first-use authority vested in the The assurances of the generals were nuclear aim-points, many hundreds
president, Congress should pass not very convincing. First, a launch order located inside cities in Russia, China,
legislation requiring the defense normally would be transmitted by the North Korea, and Iran.24
secretary to consult closely with the Pentagon directly to the firing crews at The target plans have already been
top four leaders of the Senate and the bottom of the chain, and StratCom vetted by military lawyers and legally
House, as well as the chairs and ranking and other senior military commanders certified for prosecution under certain
members of the committees responsible receiving it at the same time could not circumstances, a fact that plants serious
for defense spending, on matters interfere at this late stage. StratCom could doubt that legal desiderata have been
pertaining to U.S. nuclear war plans. scramble to issue a termination order applied scrupulously. Dubious rationales
These leaders would be given greater but it would almost certainly arrive too such as “belligerent reprisal” to justify
access to the wartime plans that govern late to stop the launch.23 Second, their killing millions of civilians, departures
conventional and nuclear operations comments suggested that they could from the law of war (proportionality,
and be apprised of any changes to those not refuse a horrifyingly bad call by the distinction, and necessity), and the self-
plans that move the nation closer to president, but rather only an illegal one. defense clause of the UN Charter to justify
their implementation. The defense Third, insubordination seems a weak pre-emption and even preventive strikes
secretary would be held accountable for reed to lean on given the deep-seated appear to be too readily invoked.25
timely briefings and answer sessions to obedience to civilian control engrained in The absence of crystal clarity in this
ensure that these congressional leaders military culture, training, and its code of arena begs for elucidation. The time
will be informed of pending military justice. By the same token, to the extent is ripe for a reckoning of the legality
actions and able to assert their war that it would be an effective safeguard, it of specific nuclear plans on the books,
powers and if necessary bring the full may well undermine the sacred tenet of a serious endeavor to teach and train
Congress into the debate. He would also civilian control over the military. Fourth, nuclear commanders in this area, and
be required to inform the president, vice they provided no clues as to what would the international court of justice to
president, and national security adviser if constitute an “illegal” order and indeed revisit the question of the legality of
ongoing nuclear mission planning does created the impression that they would using nuclear weapons.
not accord with the consensus view of defer broadly to a president’s judgment Extralegal back channels. During the
congressional leaders. of what constitutes an imminent threat dark days of the Watergate scandal
Should the president’s operational warranting a pre-emptive or even engulfing President Richard Nixon,
direction of the nuclear forces overstep preventive first strike. There was no Defense Secretary James Schlesinger
the consensus of the congressional opinion proffered, for instance, that and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
leaders, particularly if it entails the first President Donald Trump’s threat to reportedly instructed the Pentagon to

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The Ohio-class ballistic-missile submarine USS Pennsylvania transits the Hood Canal August 2, 2017, as it returns home to Naval
Base Kitsap-Bangor, Wash. A submarine on patrol could launch its nuclear missiles as quickly as 15 minutes after a president gives
the command. (Photo: Amanda Gray/ USSTRATCOM)

check with them before carrying out time Congress must authorize the mission maintaining a credible capability to absorb
any strange orders from Nixon.26 This or else the troops must be withdrawn an enemy’s maximum assault and strike back
may have been a prudent intervention, within 30 days after the 60-day grace with sufficient force to destroy the aggressor’s

however dubious in legal terms, but it period expires. Yale law professor Bruce country, the practical reality is that these
persistent vulnerabilities render the United
represents only a stopgap measure that is Ackerman, the pre-eminent authority on
States heavily reliant on extremely rapid
not reliable and sets a bad precedent with this law, argues that the 60-day period
reaction if an enemy attack is imminent or
insidious long-term effects on presidential begins when the president threatens
underway with incoming warheads streaking
governance. It is notable that these to commit the forces,27 a somewhat
toward U.S. territory at four miles per second.
secretaries were civilians without military controversial interpretation that suggests
backgrounds. The current crop of senior Trump’s tweeting and talking about 4  This plane is a militarized Boeing 747

advisers surrounding Trump are former destroying North Korea already started airborne command post kept always on runway
alert (home-based at Offutt Air Force Base near
senior generals who lack any proclivity to the 60-day clock, which has now run
Omaha or forward-deployed at Andrews Air
conspire against the commander-in-chief. out. Congress has been too reluctant to
Force Base outside Washington) or shadowing
25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. exercise its war powers and needs to
the president during his travels abroad. It
Should a president bark out an obviously assert them vigorously.
possesses all the codes needed to issue the
illegal order, senior officials could notify
“go-code” and the communications equipment
the vice president in a bid to invoke ENDNOTES to transmit it directly to the forces, including
the 25th Amendment. It provides a a five-mile-long trailing antenna to reach
1  These safeguards are the “two-person rule”
mechanism for the vice president to prohibiting access or control by any single submarines.
become the acting president. If the person other than the president, and the
5  In fact, he has become the primary initiator
vice president secures in writing the locking of weapons to prevent their use electro-
of the conference as a result of the surging
concurrence of one-half or more of the mechanically unless and until unlock codes
proliferation of ballistic missiles and their
Cabinet secretaries declaring the inability are provided to the firing crews. The unlock
prolific testing over the past decade.
of the president to perform his duties for and launch authorization codes needed by
the bomber, silo-based missile, and submarine 6  A pre-planned option would take only
physical or mental reasons, then the vice
crews are held exclusively by high-level military minutes to execute. An innovated option could
president takes over as soon as this letter
command centers, not the president. The take hours to days.
is delivered to the leaders of Congress.
locking devices were installed on these strategic 7  David Welna, “What the Law of
Unfortunately, the launch protocol is
forces in 1970, 1977, and 1997, respectively. War Says About Nuclear Strikes,”
so streamlined that this constitutional
intervention may prove too slow and 2  Bruce Blair, “Trump Could Face NPR, November 29, 2017, https://

cumbersome, but it does provide a a Nuclear Decision Soon,” Politico, [Link]/2017/11/29/567313562/

November 16, 2016, [Link] what-the-law-of-war-says-about-nuclear-strikes.
potential recourse in some situations.
[Link]/magazine/story/2016/11/
Enforce the War Powers Act of 1973. The 8  This joint operations cell of the National
trump-north-korea-nuclear-crises-214457.
law allows the president to send U.S. Military Command Center is headed by a
troops into combat for 60 days without 3  Although U.S. nuclear deterrence policy one-star flag officer. Normally, a colonel is the
congressional approval, during which is conceptually predicated on the notion of ranking officer on duty. See Ben Smith, “Kirk:

12 ARMS CONTROL TODAY January/February 2018

PREPUBLICATION RELEASE
‘I Command the War Room in the Pentagon,’” author. As he prepared to call President Jimmy the fact that he and the president constitute
Politico, May 21, 2010, [Link] Carter, he received a call ending the nightmare. the “national command authorities.” It may
com/blogs/ben-smith/2010/05/kirk-i-command- A defective computer chip had caused the also stem from the law that reorganized the
the-war-room-in-the-pentagon-027162. false alarm. See “The 3 A.M. Phone Call,” Department of Defense in the 1980s. Under the
The National Security Archive, The George Goldwater-Nichols Act, the chain of command
9  The Editors, “No One Should Have Sole
Washington University, March 1, 2012, https:// is stipulated to run from the president to the
Authority to Launch a Nuclear Attack,” Scientific
[Link]/nukevault/ebb371/. defense secretary and then to the combatant
American, August 1, 2017, [Link]
commanders, but this law contains a loophole.
[Link]/article/no-one-should- 14  There was much predictability in the U.S.-
It says this is the chain of command unless
have-sole-authority-to-launch-a-nuclear-attack/. Soviet strategic confrontation. The United States
the president directs otherwise. See Goldwater-
Although the missiles are normally aimed at the knew much about Soviet missiles and their
Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization
open ocean, changing them to their wartime ranges and test practices. By mutual agreement,
Act of 1986, Pub. L. No. 99-433, 10 U.S.C. 111
targets, preset in the missile’s memory for aim- the United States received advance notification
(1986).
points in Russia, China, North Korea, or Iran, is of their launches.
as easy as changing TV channels. They would 22  See Gen. C. Robert Kehler, Statement before
15  Over the past decade, countries in Asia
not be involved in a nuclear strike confined the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
having nuclear weapons—China, India, North
to North Korea because they would have to November 14, 2017, [Link]
Korea, and Pakistan—and Iran have accelerated
fly over Russia and risk triggering mistaken [Link]/imo/media/doc/111417_Kehler_
their ballistic missile programs. Every day,
retaliation by Russia against the United States. [Link]; Kathryn Watson, “Top General
events occur, often involving civilian or military
10  Dave Merrill, Nafeesa Syeed, and Brittany missile launches, that require a look by the Says He Would Resist ‘Illegal’ Nuke Order
Harris, “To Launch a Nuclear Strike President early-warning crews at Petersen and Offutt From Trump,” CBS News, November 18, 2017,
Trump Would Take These Steps,” Bloomberg Air Force bases. They are tasked to provide a [Link]
Politics, January 20, 2017, [Link] preliminary assessment whether North America command-gen-john-hyten-resist-illegal-nuke-
[Link]/politics/graphics/2016-nuclear- is under nuclear missile attack within three order-from-trump/.
weapon-launch/. The crew positions the boat at minutes after receiving the first reports from 23  Under some circumstances, StratCom
the proper launch depth (150 feet) and spins up satellites and ground radar. would assume the duties of the Pentagon
the missiles’ gyroscopes for flight navigation to war room and would be in a position to
16  This notification process now runs through
the designated targets. Missiles would emerge withhold the transmission of a launch order.
two distinct channels, NORAD and StratCom,
from their tubes one at a time every 15 seconds. “U.S. General Says Nuclear Launch Order
with the latter striving to get a head start and
11  In peacetime, the entire nuclear bomber activating the protocol before an attack is Can Be Refused, Sparking Debate,” Fox News,
force is not armed with nuclear weapons. confirmed or even before a missile lifts off from November 20, 2017, [Link]
It takes 12-24 hours to load the weapons North Korea, China, Iran, or elsewhere. com/politics/2017/11/20/generals-comments-
from local storage bunkers. Bruce G. Blair, on-illegal-nuclear-launch-by-president-sparks-
17  In January 2017, Vice President Joseph Biden
“De-Alerting Strategic Forces,” in Reykjavik [Link].
argued that “[g]iven our non-nuclear
Revisited: Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear
capabilities and the nature of today’s threats— 24  The author estimates that there are 80 aim-
Weapons, ed. George P. Shultz, Sidney D.
it’s hard to envision a plausible scenario in points in North Korea; half that many in Iran;
Drell, and James E. Goodby (Stanford, CA:
which the first use of nuclear weapons by the 900-plus in Russia, including 250 economic and
Hoover Institution Press, 2008), http://
United States would be necessary. Or make 200 leadership aim-points largely concentrated
[Link]/sites/default/files/
sense. President Obama and I are confident in cities (100 in greater Moscow alone); and
documents/9780817949211_ch2.pdf .
we can deter—and defend ourselves and more than 400 in China, including 250 and
12  Jonathan Schell, The Gift of Time (New York: our Allies against—non-nuclear threats 60 such economic and leadership aim-points,
Metropolitan Books, 1998), pp. 191-194. through other means.” Joe Biden, “Remarks respectively.
by the Vice President on Nuclear Security,”
13  Reason would likely be the first casualty, 25  For discussions on international law as
American Presidency Project, January 11, 2017,
as U.S. presidents and their key advisers it applies to nuclear weapons use, see Col.
[Link]
recognized. Zbigniew Brzezinski stated, “A Charles J. Dunlap Jr., “Taming Shiva: Applying
php?pid=121419.
sudden massive attack would put the American International Law to Nuclear Operations,” The
leaders under extraordinary psychological 18  H.R.4415, 115th Cong. (2017). Air Force Law Review, Vol. 41 (1997), pp. 163-
pressure, capable of inducing erratic behavior 165; Theodore T. Richard, “Nuclear Weapons
19  Bruce G. Blair, Strategic Command
and hesitation.” Zbigniew Brzezinski, “From Targeting: Evolution of Law and U.S. Policy,”
and Control: Redefining the Nuclear Threat
Arms Control to Controlled Security,” The Military Law Review, Vol. 224, No. 4 (2017):
(Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press,
Wall Street Journal, July 10, 1984. Brzezinski 862-978.
1985), pp. 289-295.
spoke from experience, having received a
26  Garrett M. Graff, “The Madman and the
shocking call in the middle of the night in 20  Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons Act
Bomb,” Politico, August 11, 2017, [Link]
1979 informing him of the launch of 220 of 2017, H.R. 669, 115th Cong. (2017).
[Link]/magazine/story/2017/08/11/
Soviet submarine missiles at the United States.
21  Richard K. Betts and Matthew Waxman, donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-richard-
A second call indicated that 2,200 missiles
“Safeguarding Nuclear Launch Procedures: A nixon-215478.
were streaking toward the United States—an
Proposal,” Lawfare, November 19, 2017, https://
all-out first strike. His biggest worry at this 27  Bruce Ackerman, “How to Stop Trump
[Link]/safeguarding-nuclear-
stage was figuring out how he would convince Blowing It Up,” The New York Review
launch-procedures-proposal.
a groggy president that this was the real thing of Books, November 28, 2017, http://
requiring an immediate nuclear response. The popular misconception that the defense [Link]/daily/2017/11/28/
Zbigniew Brzezinski, in 2009 conversation with secretary already plays a role may stem from how-to-stop-trump-blowing-it-up/.

ARMS CONTROL TODAY January/February 2018 13