Probability Homework Assignment 1
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Eva ChungProbability Homework Assignment 1
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Eva ChungCommon questions
Powered by AIThe circuit does not work if no path connects its ends using only functioning components. Given P(Ei) for each component i, compute the event where the circuit fails. Since P(Ei) = 1/3 for i = 1, 2, 3 is independent, and P(Ei) = 1/2 for i = 4, 5 and P(E6) = 1/4, the probability for single paths 1 and 2 to fail is 1-P(E1*)P(E2*) = 1-[(1-1/3)(1-1/3)] = 5/9. Continue similarly for all possible combinations to find the total probability for the circuit's failure .
Given FX(x) = 0 for x < 0, i^2/N^2 for x ∈ [i, i+1), 0 ≤ i ≤ N-1, and 1 for x ≥ N, calculate P(X=i) by the difference FX(i)-FX(i-1). For a specified i, where i is an integer in the range [0, N], this probability is given by P(X=i) = i^2/N^2 - (i-1)^2/N^2 = (2i-1)/N^2 for a random variable X defined over these intervals .
The cumulative distribution function FX(x) is defined as FX(x) = 0 for x < 0, i^2/N^2 for x ∈ [i, i+1) where i is an integer and 0 ≤ i ≤ N-1, and 1 for x ≥ N. Determine P(X ≤ i) = FX(i) since FX is cumulative, which is i^2/N^2 for i in [0, N-1]. For P(X < i), compute as FX(i-1) which would be (i-1)^2/N^2 for integers in the intervals [0, i-1]. Lastly, compute P(X = i) = FX(i) - FX(i-1) which results in a difference of consecutive cumulative values .
If E[X] = 3.7 and Var(X) = 0.93 for a single biased die throw, the expectation of the sum of 10,000 throws, E[S10000] = 10,000 * E[X] = 37,000. The variance of S10000, based on independent throws, is Var(S10000) = 10,000 * Var(X) = 9,300 .
Independence allows separate probabilities to be multiplied to find joint event probabilities. In testing scenarios, an independent probability translates directly to mutual events not influencing each other’s outcome, simplifying combined probabilities to direct products of individual events. For component failures and testing accuracy, it simplifies the computation as P(E and F) = P(E)*P(F). Independence validates that the occurrence of one event gives no information on how the likelihoods adjust; thus streamlining the calculation for multiple events as in reliability of systems and error detection .
For a six-sided die where numbers 2, 3, 4, 5 have probability p = 0.17 and numbers 1 and 6 have probability q = 0.16, compute expectation E[X] as E[X] = ΣxiP(xi) = 1*0.16 + 2*0.17 + 3*0.17 + 4*0.17 + 5*0.17 + 6*0.16 = 3.7. For variance Var(X), compute E[X^2] = 1^2*0.16 + 2^2*0.17 + ... + 6^2*0.16 = 14.54, then Var(X) = E[X^2] - (E[X])^2 = 14.54 - 3.7^2 = 0.93 .
To find the probability that a component is defective given a positive test result, use Bayes' theorem. Let D be a defective component, and T be a test indicating a defect. The probability P(D|T) is given by P(D|T) = P(T|D)P(D) / [P(T|D)P(D) + P(T|D')P(D')], where P(T|D) = 0.99, P(D) = 0.001, P(T|D') = 0.01, and P(D') = 0.999. Plugging these values, P(D|T) = 0.99*0.001 / (0.99*0.001 + 0.01*0.999) ≈ 0.0902. For the second part, we need the probability that a component is not defective given a negative test, P(D'|T'). P(D'|T') = P(T'|D')P(D') / [P(T'|D)P(D) + P(T'|D')P(D')], where P(T'|D) = 0.01 and P(T'|D') = 0.99. Substituting these values, P(D'|T') = 0.99*0.999 / (0.01*0.001 + 0.99*0.999) ≈ 0.9999 .
To prove that events Ac and Bc ∪ Cc are independent, recognize that two events E and F are independent if P(E∩F) = P(E)P(F). Given that A, B, and C are independent, P(Ac) = 1-P(A), P(Bc) = 1-P(B), and P(Cc) = 1-P(C). Thus, P(Bc ∪ Cc) = P(Bc) + P(Cc) − P(Bc ∩ Cc) = (1-P(B)) + (1-P(C)) − (1-P(B))(1-P(C)). P(Ac∩(Bc ∪ Cc)) = P(Ac)P(Bc ∪ Cc) by independence, so P(Ac∩(Bc ∪ Cc)) = (1-P(A))[(1-P(B)) + (1-P(C)) − (1-P(B))(1-P(C))]. This equals P(Ac)P(Bc ∪ Cc), confirming the independence of Ac and Bc ∪ Cc .
A cumulative distribution function (CDF) provides the probability that a random variable X takes a value less than or equal to a specific value. It's integral to understanding the behavior of a probability distribution by providing a non-decreasing, right-continuous curve that encapsulates all probability below a point. This makes it essential for determining median, quantiles, and general distribution characteristics. The ability to effectively analyze probability over intervals through the CDF helps in constructing and interpreting statistical models and predictions .
To construct a decision tree, start by identifying paths that allow the circuit to function. For each path, list elements in series implying circuit functionality. Calculate the probability for each path's success by multiplying each P(Ei*) (the probability that element i works). Then accumulate probabilities for all possible functional paths, ensuring to account for potential overlaps or redundancy in path calculations across parallel connections. Each branch and calculation adheres to independence principles in the overall calculation of whether the circuit functions .