SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

CIVN2016A: ENGINEERING ECONOMICS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
Name: Ndzalama Chabalala
Student Number: 1819734

Assignment 1
Composite Development Indicators
It is challenging to quantify development as a multidimensional phenomenon since there are so many
issues present (De Muro, 2009). Numerous aggregation techniques are available to measure
development through composite indicators, each with advantages and disadvantages, that arose as a
substitute for employing a range of indicators whose dispersed information was occasionally
challenging to understand (Santos and Santos, 2014). Composite indicators are common instruments
for evaluating how well countries or organizations perform in terms of human development,
sustainability, perceived corruption, innovation, profitability, or other complicated phenomena. In the
case provided, the following composite development indicators could be employed to monitor
development within Thembisa:
1. Sustainable Livelihoods
The sustainable livelihoods method enhances knowledge about the poor's quality of life. It
arranges and demonstrates the relationships between the variables that limit or improve livelihood
opportunities. It can be employed to evaluate how well developmental activities employed in
Thembisa have supported livelihoods of the residents of Thembisa. With the use of this indicator,
current development initiatives are monitored to ensure that they are dynamic, sustainable,
people-centered, responsive and participative on all levels. The livelihood of Thembisa’s residents
would be deemed sustainable if it could withstand the pressures and shocks brought on by the
protests that resulted in property damage and fatalities, recover from them, and then maintain or
improve its capacities, resources, and activities. This method ensures development leads to the
achievement of livelihood outcomes that individuals consider important. Activities related to
development become more process focused. It forces municipalities and the government to go
beyond sectoral and homogenous "community" perspectives (Serrat, 2017). This may
underplay the possibility that improving one group's way of life may undermine the other. This
indicator may also underplay elements of macroeconomic trends and conflicts on development.

2. The Sustainable Development Goals

To achieve global sustainable development by 2030, the United Nations (UN) has devised a set of
action-oriented objectives. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intended to strike a
balance between the economic, social, and environmental aspects of sustainable development.
(Gurin et al, 2015). Governments at the municipal level are essential in the implementation of the
SDGs. Using this indicator, the municipality of Thembisa must ensure that the development plans
that are defined and implemented are in line with the SDGs set out by the UN. The SDGs are
important because they give the mayor of Thembisa a framework for understanding how to
achieve sustainability. The SDG framework outlines goals and offers concrete targets for a variety
of issues, including world hunger and climate change. The SDGs' vibrant and eye-catching visual
appeal make them the ideal window dressing. Governments at various levels have a long history

1
 of exploiting sustainability to boost their reputations, and the use of the SDGs as a reporting tool
to brand their sustainability efforts is no exception. The lack of higher accountability and corrupt
governance means that executives of Thembisa may overestimate their positive contributions to
some SDGs while disregarding their negative effects on others and fail to implement sustainable
initiatives by using the SDGs as a mere communication tool.

3. Human Development Index

The Human Development Index (HDI) gives a measure of a geographical region’s economic
development and welfare. A long and healthy life, knowledge, and a good level of living are three
essential aspects of human development that the HDI measures in summary form. It helps to
evaluate whether development plans made by the mayor and municipality in Thembisa post
protests ensured no further lives were lost subsequent to violence, and that the income of
Thembisa residents recovered and improved post property damage that may have led to loss of
businesses. Increase in education and life expectancy may be an indication that damaged
infrastructure such as hospitals or school buildings in Thembisa has been dealt with effectively as
part of the development plans. This composite indicator is beneficial in that it uses two different
types of social data and one type of economic data, indicating that it employs a variety of data and
is not dependent on any particular measure. The HDI however is less responsive to short-term
changes and may not give a clear indication of the impacts that development projects have on the
economic growth of a region until an extensive period of time has passed (Investopedia, 2022).
This indicator is thus not sufficient to monitor development in Thembisa subsequent to shocks that
occurred only a few weeks ago.
Taking into consideration that the protests that erupted in Thembisa affected the residents through
loss of private property and/or loss of life, one can conclude that the individual livelihoods of Thembisa
residents was disrupted, and may have been disrupted in various ways. An individual may have lost
their home and be in financial grievance, while another individual may have lost a family member and
be in social grievance. Different livelihood assets were compromised for each person or group of
people. It would be essential to ensure that development projects that are in place cater to supporting
the people and their individual needs. The most appropriate composite development indicator is thus
the sustainable livelihoods indicator. Projects that concentrate on livelihoods are more successful at
eradicating poverty and grievance than those that ignore the means by which the poor sustain their
standard of living and instead aim to increase economic growth, access to social services and
infrastructure.

References
De Muro, P. D. (2009). ‘Composite Indices for Multidimensional Development and Poverty: An
Application to MDG Indicators.’ Wye City Group Meeting. Held in Rome, pp. 2-4.
Gurin, J. Ariss, A. Manley, L. (2015). ‘Sustainable Development Goals and Open Data.’ World Bank
Blogs, [Accessed 3 October 2022]. Available at: <Sustainable Development Goals and Open Data
([Link])>
(2022). ‘What Is the Human Development Index (HDI)?’ Investopedia, [Accessed 3 October 2022].
Available at: <What Is the Human Development Index (HDI)? ([Link])>
Santos, M. E. Santos, G. (2014). ‘Composite Indices of Development.’ In Currie-Alder, B., Kanbur, R.,
Malone D. and R. Medhora (eds.), International Development: Ideas, Experience and Prospects,
Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 133-150.
Serrat, O. (2017). ‘The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach.’ In Knowledge Solutions, Singapore:
Springer, pp. 21-26.

2
 Assignment 2

Year Population K per annum X per annum Percentage 𝑷𝒕 = 𝑷𝟎 (𝟏 + 𝑿)𝒕 𝑷𝒕 = 𝑷𝟎 𝒆𝑿𝒕

dP/dt (P₂-P₁)/P₁ Increase Geometric Method Exponential
Method
1970 22750
1980 23250 500 500 2.2%
= 0.02
22750
1990 31500 8250 8250 35.5%
= 0.35
23250
1.1111 10 1.1111
2000 35000 3500 3500 11.1% 31500 × 𝑒 10(
)
= 0.11 31500(1 + ( )) 100
31500 100
=35180 =35202
3900 1.1111 10 1.1111
2010 38900 3900 = 0.11 11.1% 35180(1 + (
100
)) 35202 × 𝑒 10( 100 )
35000 =39339
=39290
4370 1.1111 10 1.1111
2020 43270 4370 = 0.11 11.2% 39290(1 + (
100
)) 39339 × 𝑒 10( 100 )
38900 =43962
=43880
1.1111 10 1.1111
2030 49007 43880(1 + (
100
)) 43962 × 𝑒 10( 100
)

=49007 =49128

The data shows a significant increase in growth from 1980 to 1990. However, a constant X rate per
annum is observed from 2000 to 2020. Geometric and Exponential methods will be used to forecast
the 2030 population and establish which is the better estimate. The Geometric Method was ultimately
used to forecast the population for 2030 as the interim forecasts for 2000, 2010 and 2020 using the
Exponential Method were farther from the actual values than the Geometric Method.
The Arithmetic Method assumes that the population is increasing at a constant K per annum. The rate
of change of the population over time must be constant, which is not the case in this dataset. The
Declining Growth Method cannot be used as Psat is not known. The Declining Growth Method given
Psat is NOT known cannot be used as the rate of population initially increased but only decreased
once in time and then remained constant after 2000.