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IPO and SPAC Financial Model Analysis

The document outlines models for an IPO and a SPAC transaction. For the IPO model, it provides assumptions around the percentage of primary and secondary shares, greenshoe provision, target company financial projections, and implied valuation multiples and offering price per share based on different trading multiples. For the SPAC model, it shows the IPO share price, number of shares issued to the public and sponsor, warrant details for the sponsor, and underwriting fee assumptions.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
269 views5 pages

IPO and SPAC Financial Model Analysis

The document outlines models for an IPO and a SPAC transaction. For the IPO model, it provides assumptions around the percentage of primary and secondary shares, greenshoe provision, target company financial projections, and implied valuation multiples and offering price per share based on different trading multiples. For the SPAC model, it shows the IPO share price, number of shares issued to the public and sponsor, warrant details for the sponsor, and underwriting fee assumptions.

Uploaded by

John
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

IPO Model

($ in Millions USD Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)

IPO Transaction Assumptions: Units:

Underwriting Discount: % 5.0% Deal & Expense Assumptions: $ in Millions


IPO Pricing Discount: % 15.0%
New Funds Raised in IPO: $ 250.0
Primary Share %: % 75.0%
Secondary Share %: % 25.0% (+) SEC Filing & Registration Fees: 1.0
(+) Printing Fees: 0.5
Greenshoe Provision %: % 15.0% (+) Accounting & Legal Fees: 2.0
Primary Allocation %: % 75.0% (+) Miscellaneous / Other Fees: 1.0
Total Fees: $ 4.5
Target - 2-Year Forward Revenue Estimate: $M $ 335.7
Target - 2-Year Forward EBITDA Estimate: $M 67.8
Target - 2-Year Forward Net Income Estimate: $M 43.0

Filing Range - 2-Year Forward TEV / Revenue Multiples


2-Year Forward TEV / Revenue Multiple at Trading: Units: 6.0 x 6.8 x 7.5 x 8.3 x 9.0 x

2-Year Forward Revenue: $M $ 335.7 $ 335.7 $ 335.7 $ 335.7 $ 335.7

Implied Post-Money Enterprise Value @ Trading: $M 2,014.3 2,266.1 2,517.9 2,769.7 3,021.5
(+) Net IPO Proceeds: $M 233.0 233.0 233.0 233.0 233.0
(+) Cash & Cash-Equivalents: $M 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.6
(+) Equity Investments & Non-Core Assets: $M 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
(-) Total Debt: $M - - - - -
(-) Noncontrolling Interests: $M - - - - -
(-) Preferred Stock: $M - - - - -
Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Trading: $M 2,347.9 2,599.7 2,851.5 3,103.3 3,355.1

Pricing Discount %: % 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%


Pricing Discount Amount: $M 352.2 390.0 427.7 465.5 503.3

Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Pricing: $M 1,995.7 2,209.7 2,423.8 2,637.8 2,851.8

Diluted Shares Outstanding: M Shares 19.513 19.513 19.513 19.513 19.513

Implied Offering Price per Share: $ as Stated $ 89.47 $ 100.43 $ 111.40 $ 122.37 $ 133.34
Overallotment (Greenshoe) Calculations:
(+) Primary Shares Issued in IPO: M Shares 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9
(+) Secondary Shares Sold in IPO: M Shares 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
Total Shares Issued or Sold in IPO (Base Deal): M Shares 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5

Total Overallotment Shares: M Shares 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4


Total Shares Outstanding, Post-IPO and Greenshoe: M Shares 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.9 21.7

(+) Primary Shares Issued - Basic Offering: M Shares 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9
(+) Primary Shares Issued - Overallotment: M Shares 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total Primary Shares Issued: M Shares 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2

(+) Secondary Shares Sold - Basic Offering: M Shares 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
(+) Secondary Shares Sold - Overallotment: M Shares 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Secondary Shares Issued: M Shares 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7

Deal Size Post-Overallotment:

Base Deal Size (Primary + Secondary): $M $ 333.3 $ 333.3 $ 333.3 $ 333.3 $ 333.3
(+) Total Overallotment: $M 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Total Offering Size: $M 383.3 383.3 383.3 383.3 383.3

Gross Primary Proceeds: $M 287.5 287.5 287.5 287.5 287.5


(-) Underwriting Discount: $M (14.4) (14.4) (14.4) (14.4) (14.4)
(-) Deal-Related Fees: $M (4.5) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5) (4.5)
Net IPO Proceeds to Issuer: $M 268.6 268.6 268.6 268.6 268.6

Additional Net Proceeds from Primary Overallotment: $M 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6

Post-Overallotment Valuation:
Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Pricing: $M 2,031.3 2,245.4 2,459.4 2,673.4 2,887.4
Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Trading: $M 2,383.5 2,635.3 2,887.1 3,138.9 3,390.7

% Company Sold in IPO: % 14.2% 12.8% 11.7% 10.8% 10.0%

Valuation Multiples @ Pricing and Trading (Including Overallotment):

Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Pricing: $M $ 2,031.3 $ 2,245.4 $ 2,459.4 $ 2,673.4 $ 2,887.4
Implied Post-Money Equity Value @ Trading: $M 2,383.5 2,635.3 2,887.1 3,138.9 3,390.7

Implied Post-Money Enterprise Value @ Pricing: $M 1,662.1 1,876.2 2,090.2 2,304.2 2,518.2
Implied Post-Money Enterprise Value @ Trading: $M 2,014.3 2,266.1 2,517.9 2,769.7 3,021.5

Implied 2-Year Forward P / E Multiple at Pricing: x 47.2 x 52.2 x 57.1 x 62.1 x 67.1 x
Implied 2-Year Forward P / E Multiple at Trading: x 55.4 x 61.2 x 67.1 x 72.9 x 78.8 x

Implied 2-Year Forward TEV / EBITDA Multiple at Pricing: x 24.5 x 27.7 x 30.8 x 34.0 x 37.1 x
Implied 2-Year Forward TEV / EBITDA Multiple at Trading: x 29.7 x 33.4 x 37.1 x 40.8 x 44.5 x

Implied 2-Year Forward TEV / Revenue Multiple at Pricing: x 5.0 x 5.6 x 6.2 x 6.9 x 7.5 x
Implied 2-Year Forward TEV / Revenue Multiple at Trading: x 6.0 x 6.8 x 7.5 x 8.3 x 9.0 x
SPAC Model
($ in Millions USD Except Per Share and Per Unit Data)

Step 1 - SPAC IPO: Units: Units:

IPO Share Price: $ as Stated $ 10.00 Sponsor "Promote": % 20.0%


# Primary Shares Issued: M Shares 20.000
Warrants Sold to Sponsor: M Shares 5.000
(+) SPAC Shareholders: M Shares 20.000 Warrant Strike Price: $ as Stated $ 11.50
(+) Sponsor Promote Shares: M Shares 5.000 Price per Warrant: $ as Stated 1.00
Total Shares Post-IPO: M Shares 25.000
Upfront Underwriting Fee: % 2.5%
IPO Dollar Amount: $M 200.0 Deferred Underwriting Fee: % 2.5%

Post-IPO Equity Value: $M 250.0 Sponsor Cash Contribution: $M 5.0


(-) Cash: $M (200.0) Value of Sponsor's Shares: $M 50.0
(+) Debt: $M -
Post-IPO Enterprise Value: $M 50.0

"What Should Happen" - Share Price Decreases Based on Dilution from Sponsor Promote:

New Share Price: $ as Stated $ 8.00

Equity Value: $M 200.0 Sponsor Cash Contribution: $M 5.0


(-) Cash: $M (200.0) Value of Sponsor's Shares: $M 40.0
(+) Debt: $M -
Enterprise Value: $M -

Step 2 - SPAC Merger: Units: Units:

Target's 2-Year Forward Revenue: $M $ 335.7 Size of PIPE Investment: $M $ 87.5


TEV / Revenue Multiple: x 7.5 x PIPE Fee: % 2.5%

Target Enterprise Value: $M 2,517.9 Shares Owned By:


(-) Target Net Debt: $M 100.6 SPAC Shareholders: M Shares 20.000 7.5%
Target Equity Value: $M 2,618.5 Sponsor: M Shares 5.000 1.9%
PIPE Investors: M Shares 8.750 3.3%
Cash to Purchase Target: $M 287.5 Target Company: M Shares 233.098 87.4%
Equity Required: $M 2,331.0 Total: M Shares 266.848 100.0%

Required Share Issuance: M Shares 233.098 After Exercise of Warrants:


SPAC Shareholders: M Shares 20.000 7.4%
M&A Advisory Fee: % 0.5% Sponsor: M Shares 10.000 3.7%
PIPE Investors: M Shares 8.750 3.2%
Target Company: M Shares 233.098 85.7%
Total: M Shares 271.848 100.0%
Step 3 - SPAC vs. IPO:

SPAC Deal Structure: IPO Deal Structure:


Enterprise Value: $ 2,517.9 Enterprise Value: $ 2,517.9
(-) Net Debt: 100.6 (-) Net Debt: 100.6
Pre-Money Equity Value: 2,618.5 Pre-Money Equity Value: 2,618.5
(+) Net IPO Proceeds: 200.0 (+) Net IPO Proceeds: 233.0
(+) Net PIPE Proceeds: 87.5 (+) Net Overallotment Proceeds: 35.6
Post-Money Equity Value @ Trading: 2,906.0 Post-Money Equity Value @ Trading: 2,887.1
(-) IPO Pricing Discount: - (-) IPO Pricing Discount: (427.7)
Post-Money Equity Value @ Pricing: 2,906.0 Post-Money Equity Value @ Pricing: 2,459.4
(-) SPAC / Public Shareholders: (200.0) (-) SPAC / Public Shareholders: (287.5)
(-) Sponsor Promote: (50.0) (-) Sponsor Promote: -
(-) PIPE Investors: (87.5) (-) PIPE Investors: -
Equity Value to Existing Shareholders: 2,568.5 Equity Value to Existing Shareholders: 2,171.9
(+) Cash Proceeds: 287.5 (+) Cash Proceeds: 287.5
(-) Transaction Fees: (22.5) (-) Transaction Fees: (18.9)
Total Value to Existing Shareholders: 2,833.4 Total Value to Existing Shareholders: 2,440.5

Implied Ownership, Pre-Warrants: Implied Ownership, Pre-Warrants:


SPAC / Public Shareholders: 20.000 7.5% SPAC / Public Shareholders: 2.581 11.7%
Sponsor: 5.000 1.9% Sponsor: 0.000 0.0%
PIPE Investors: 8.750 3.3% PIPE Investors: 0.000 0.0%
Existing Shareholders: 233.098 87.4% Existing Shareholders: 19.513 88.3%
Total: 266.848 100.0% Total: 22.093 100.0%

Implied Ownership, Post-Warrants: Implied Ownership, Post-Warrants:


SPAC / Public Shareholders: 20.000 7.4% SPAC / Public Shareholders: 2.581 11.7%
Sponsor: 10.000 3.7% Sponsor: 0.000 0.0%
PIPE Investors: 8.750 3.2% PIPE Investors: 0.000 0.0%
Existing Shareholders: 233.098 85.7% Existing Shareholders: 19.513 88.3%
Total: 271.848 100.0% Total: 22.093 100.0%

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