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Probability Distributions in Statistics

This document provides examples and problems involving different probability distributions including the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It begins with four problems involving the binomial distribution related to seed germination rates, credit card usage, and online purchase rates. It then presents three problems each involving the Poisson distribution related to accident rates, typing errors, and bacterial colony growth. Finally, it lists four problems involving the normal distribution related to construction costs, household incomes, tax refund amounts, and dog food bag weights.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
15 views2 pages

Probability Distributions in Statistics

This document provides examples and problems involving different probability distributions including the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. It begins with four problems involving the binomial distribution related to seed germination rates, credit card usage, and online purchase rates. It then presents three problems each involving the Poisson distribution related to accident rates, typing errors, and bacterial colony growth. Finally, it lists four problems involving the normal distribution related to construction costs, household incomes, tax refund amounts, and dog food bag weights.
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

BST1034 STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS TRI 2 2022/2023

Tutorial 3: Probability Distributions

Binomial Distribution
1. A certain type of cucumber seed germinates 95% of the time. A backyard farmer
planted 30 seeds.
(i) What is the probability that exactly 25 seeds germinate?
(ii) What is the probability that 28 or fewer seeds germinate?
(iii) What is the expected number of seeds that germinate?

2. A credit card company knows that 70% of its customers are males. The company
is considering randomly selected five people each month to receive a free
vacation.
(i) What is the probability in a given month that all five people selected will
be males?
(ii) Suppose that in a given month, all five people selected are females. What
is the probability of this happening?

3. At a shopping mall, it is found that there is 70% of the customers pay by credit
card. A random sample of 9 customers has been chosen, find the probability that
(i) exactly 2 customers pay by credit card.
(ii) more than 6 customers pay by credit card.

4. Recent statistics suggest that 20 percent of those who visit a retail site on the
World Wide Web make a purchase. A retailer wished to verify this claim. To do
so, he selected a sample of 12 hits to his site and found that 4 had actually made a
purchase.

(i) What is the likelihood of exactly 4 purchases?


(ii) How many purchases should he expect?
(iii) What is the likelihood of 3 or more purchases?

Poisson Distributions
1. The number of accidents in a production facility has a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 2.4 per month.
(i) For a given month what is the probability that there will be fewer than two
accidents?
(ii) For a given month what is the probability that there will be at least three
accidents?
(iii) For a given week (assuming one month consists of 4 weeks), what is the
probability that there will be no more than one accidents?

2. The average typo errors done by a typist on each page of the paper is 1. Find the
probability that

1
BST1034 STATISTICS FOR MANAGERS TRI 2 2022/2023

(i) there are three typo errors on each page.


(ii) there are 5 typo errors on a randomly selected double page.

3. The number of bacterial colonies on a petri dish can be modeled by a Poisson


distribution with average number 2.5 per cm2. Find the probability that
(i) in 1 cm2 there are no bacterial colonies,
(ii) in 2 cm2 there are more than four bacterial colonies,
(iii) in 4 cm2 there are six bacterial colonies.

Normal Distributions
1. A contractor has concluded from his experience that the cost of building a
bungalow is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of RM600,000
and a standard deviation of RM50,000.
(i) What is the probability that the cost of building a bungalow will be
between RM560,000 and RM640,000?
(ii) Find the amount (in RM) such that only 20% of the cost of building a
bungalow will be more than this amount.

2. A marketing research company in their recent study found that the annual
household income in a city is normally distributed with a mean of RM38000 and a
standard deviation of RM6100.
(i) What is the proportion if the annual household income is between
RM35000 and RM40000?
(ii) If an advertising campaign will to be launched, and the target is for those
who have income in the top 30%. Find the minimum income for this target
group.

3. According to the Public Revenue Service, the mean tax refund for the year 2008
was RM2,454. Assume the standard deviation is RM650 and that the amounts
refunded follow a normal distribution.

(i) What is the percentage that the refund is more than RM3,000?
(ii) What is the percentage that the refund is more than RM3,000 but less than
RM3,500?

4. Canine Crunchies Inc.(CCI) sells large bags of dog food to warehouse clubs. CCI
has an automatic filling process to fill the bags. Weights of the filled bags are
normally distributed with a mean of 50kg and a standard deviation of 1.25kg.

(i) What is the probability that a randomly sampled filled bag will weigh between
48.5 and 51kg?
(ii) What is the minimum weight of a bag of dog food could be in order to remain
in
top 15% of all bags filled?

Common questions

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Identify the z-score corresponding to the 80th percentile, approximately 0.842. Then, apply it to the normal distribution using: cost = mean + z * standard deviation, which calculates to RM642,100, marking the threshold for the top 20% .

Calculate z-scores for RM35,000 and RM40,000 as follows: z = (35000 - 38000) / 6100 ≈ -0.492 and z = (40000 - 38000) / 6100 ≈ 0.328. Use standard normal distribution tables to find corresponding probabilities and determine the proportion between these z-scores. This results in a probability of approximately 0.319 .

In a Poisson distribution, the expected number of incidents (mean) is directly equal to the rate parameter λ. Thus, the expected number of accidents per month in the facility is 2.4 .

To determine the probability that a refund exceeds RM3,000, calculate the z-score as (3000 - 2454) / 650 ≈ 0.84. Using the standard normal distribution, find the probability corresponding to z = 0.84 and subtract it from 1. The result is approximately 1 - 0.7995 = 0.2005 or 20.05% .

Calculate the probability using the Poisson formula: P(X = 0) = e^-λ * λ^0 / 0!, where λ = 2.5. This results in P(X = 0) = e^-2.5 ≈ 0.0821, so there is an 8.21% chance that there are no colonies in 1 cm² .

To verify the claim, the retailer can perform a hypothesis test for a population proportion. The null hypothesis is that the proportion is 0.20. Use the sample proportion (4/12 = 0.3333) to calculate the test statistic and compare it against a critical value or p-value from a standard normal distribution to accept or reject the hypothesis .

First, calculate the mean λ for 2 cm², which is 2.5 * 2 = 5. Then use the Poisson probability formula P(X > 4). Calculate P(X ≤ 4) as the sum of P(X = 0) to P(X = 4), using P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^-λ) / k!. Subtract the result from 1 to find P(X > 4). This yields approximately 1 - 0.4405 = 0.5595 or 55.95% .

The probability that all five people selected are male can be calculated using the binomial probability formula. Since each individual has a 70% chance of being male, the probability is calculated as (0.7)^5 = 0.16807, meaning there is a 16.807% chance that all five selected individuals will be male .

To determine the likelihood of exactly four purchases, use the binomial probability formula P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where n = 12, k = 4, and p = 0.2. This equates to P(X = 4) = C(12, 4) * (0.2)^4 * (0.8)^8. Calculating this gives a probability of approximately 0.1328, or 13.28% .

To find the minimum income for the top 30%, determine the z-score that corresponds to the 70th percentile of a standard normal distribution. Use this z-score, approximately 0.524, to calculate the income using the formula: income = mean + z * standard deviation, which results in an income of RM41,194 .

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