• PERT: Time Computations
PERT: Time Computations
• We are interested in the longest path through the
network, i.e., the critical path.
• Earliest expected time (TE)
• Latest allowable occurrence time (TL)
Earliest expected time (TE)
• The Expected Time of a chain of activities in series, is
the sum of their expected times. Similarly the
variance of the path, is the sum of variances of
activities on the path. In Figure below, three activities
A,B and C are connected in series, (i.e. form a path).
Their time estimates to-tm-tp are given along the
activity arrows. The expected time of the path 1-2-3-
4 is calculated as:
• The Earliest expected time is the time when an event can be expected to occur.
4-6-8 5-7-12 4-10-13
1 2 3 4
tE=6 tE= 7.5 tE= 9.5
Example 2
30
tE= 10
tE= 4
tE= 7
10 20 50 60
tE= 5 tE= 12 tE= 5
tE= 8
tE= 8
40
Formulation for TE
• Represent activity by ij
– i-predecessor event
– j-successor event
– i-j is the activity
– TE(successor event)= TE (predecessor event) + tE
(Activity)
Problem 1
Activity Time Estimates Expected Time Variance
i j to tm tp tE σ2
10 20 6 9 12 9.00 1.00
10 30 3 5 9 5.33 1.00
10 40 10 14 18 14.00 1.78
20 50 7 10 13 10.00 1.00
20 70 3 4 8 4.5 0.69
30 50 4 10 12 9.33 1.78
40 50 8 11 14 11.00 1.00
40 60 5 10 15 10.00 2.78
50 70 3 4 5 4.00 0.11
50 80 11 15 17 14.67 1.00
60 80 7 9 12 9.17 0.69
70 90 4 8 10 7.67 1.00
80 90 6 7 9 7.17 0.25
Problem 2
Latest allowable occurrence time (TL)
• The latest time by which an event must occur to keep
the project on schedule is called the latest allowable
occurrence time.
TE=0 TE=6 TE= 13.5 TE= 23
4-6-8 5-7-12 4-10-13
1 2 3 4
tE=6 tE= 7.5 tE= 9.5
T L= 0 T L= 6 TL= 13.5 TL= 23 = TS
• TL(predecessor event)= TL (successor event) - tE
(Activity)
Earliest expected time (TE)
Successor event j Predecessor event i Activity i-j tE TE
80 70 70-80
60 60-80
20 20-80
70 60 60-70
50 50-70
60 40 40-60
50 40 40-50
30 30-50
40 10 10-40
30 20 20-30
10 10-30
20 10 10-20
Latest allowable occurrence time (TL)
Predecessor Successor event j Activity i-j tE TL
event i
70 80 70-80
60 80 60-80
70 60-70
50 70 50-70
40 60 40-60
50 40-50
30 50 30-50
20 80 20-80
30 20-30
10 40 10-40
30 10-30
20 10-20
Event no Earliest expected time
Combined TE & TL
Latest occurrence time
Predecess tijE Tj E TE Successor tijE Ti L TL
or event event (j)
(i)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Slack
• Difference between the latest allowable time and the
earliest expected time of an event is the slack time
for that event
» S= TL – TE
• Positive slack : is the amount of time an event can
be delayed without delaying the project completion
• Zero slack : is obtained when TL is equal to TE for an
event.
• Negative slack : is obtained when TL is less than the
TE for an event.
Critical Path
1. Critical path is a sequence of activities from start to finish with
zero slack. Critical activities are activities on the critical path.
2. Critical path identifies the events having zero or minimum slack
times.
3. Critical path identifies the minimum time to complete project
4. If any activity on the critical path is shortened or extended, project
time will be shortened or extended accordingly.
5. It is the longest path