Scribd
Upload
8 views7 pages

Probability Analysis of Smoking and Survival

This document summarizes a study that examined the association between smoking, age, and mortality in 1,314 women in England. It provides information on whether the women smoked or not at the beginning of the study in the early 1970s, their age at that time, and whether they were still alive 20 years later. It defines joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities and poses four questions about the data to be answered using two-way tables and graphs.

Uploaded by

Dtwa
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
8 views7 pages

Probability Analysis of Smoking and Survival

This document summarizes a study that examined the association between smoking, age, and mortality in 1,314 women in England. It provides information on whether the women smoked or not at the beginning of the study in the early 1970s, their age at that time, and whether they were still alive 20 years later. It defines joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities and poses four questions about the data to be answered using two-way tables and graphs.

Uploaded by

Dtwa
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Probability Lab #2

Whickham
By Dan L, Zhanaeya M.,
Eric G, Daniela E.
Description and Codebook
Appleton et al. (1996) summarized a study from the Whickham district of England to quantify the
association of smoking, age, and death. 1,314 women were interviewed in the early 1970s with respect to
their smoking habits. Twenty years later the women were relocated and classified with respect to survival
at the time of the follow up (yes or no), whether they smoked at the time of the original interview (yes or
no), and age at the time of the original study.

Probability:
Codebook: Joint probability is the probability of two
events occurring simultaneously. (And)
Smoker: If the woman was smoker or
nonsmoker Marginal probability is the probability of an
event irrespective of the outcome of another
Age: Woman’s age range at the start of survey variable. (Margin)

Survival: If the woman was dead or alive Conditional probability is the probability of
during the 2nd survey one event occurring in the presence of a second
event. (Given)
Answer all question with a two way table and show all work. What percentage of
the women in the study were smokers at baseline? Is this percentage an
estimate of a joint, marginal, or conditional probability?

582/1314= 0.44= 44%

This percentage is an estimate of a marginal probability.


2) What percentage of the women in the study had died by the
follow-up? Is this percentage an estimate of a joint, marginal, or
conditional probability?

369/1314= 0.28= 28%

This percentage is an estimate of a marginal probability.


3)What percentage of smokers had died by the follow-up and what
percentage of non-smokers had died at the follow-up? Are these
percentages estimates of joint, marginal, or conditional probabilities? How
would you describe the effect of smoking on survival status?

Smokers = 139/582 = 0.24= 24%

Non Smokers = 230/732 = 0.31 = 31%

These percentages would be conditional


probabilities.

Smokers have a higher chance of surviving


than non smokers.
4) Is there a difference in a person’s age at the time of survey given
their survival status. (Answer the question by creating a two way
and a stacked bar graph that is exactly the bar below)
Write a code to recreate the Mosaic Plot
below
Python Code:

Insert Picture

You might also like