QUANTITATIVE

RISK
ASSESSMENT
(QRA)
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk Assessment requires QUANTITATIVE frequency
analysis.

Quantifying risk enables estimation of:

• How often an undesirable initiating event may occur.

• The probability of a hazard outcome after the initiating event.

• The probability of a consequence severity level after the hazard

outcome (i.e. fatalities, injuries, severity of economic loss).
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

Historical data can be used to calculate the frequency of

initiating events, hazard outcomes and the severity of the
consequence.

Analysis Techniques
1. Frequency modelling techniques
2. Common-cause failure analysis
3. Human reliability analysis
4. External events analysis
• Used
 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Data can be used to calculate the frequency of initiating
events, hazard outcomes and the severity of the
consequence.
Analysis Techniques
1. Frequency modelling Used to estimate frequencies or
probabilities from basic data.
techniques Typically used when detailed
2. Common-cause failure historical data is not available.
analysis
3. Human reliability analysis i. EVENT TREES
4. External events analysis
• Used
ii. FAULT TREES

4
 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Data can be used to calculate the frequency of initiating
events, hazard outcomes and the severity of the
consequence.
Analysis Techniques
1. Frequency modelling
techniques Used to identify and analyse
failures common to multiple
2. Common-cause failure components found in systems that
analysis can lead to a hazardous event.
3. Human reliability analysis
4. External events analysis
• Used

5
 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Data can be used to calculate the frequency of initiating
events, hazard outcomes and the severity of the
consequence.
Analysis Techniques
1. Frequency modelling
techniques
2. Common-cause failure
analysis
Used to provide quantitative
3. Human reliability analysis estimates of human error
4. External events analysis
• Used
probabilities.

6
 QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Data can be used to calculate the frequency of initiating
events, hazard outcomes and the severity of the
consequence.
Analysis Techniques
1. Frequency modelling
techniques
2. Common-cause failure
Used to identify and assess
analysis external events (i.e. plane crash,
3. Human reliability analysis terrorist activities, earthquakes) to
understand expected frequency of
4. External events analysis
• Used

occurrence and/or consequence

severity per occurrence.

7
QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Frequency Modelling Technique

EVENT TREE FAULT TREE

ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
(ETA) (FTA)

We have covered this part! We will focus more on

quantifying frequency using
FT
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Typical Steps
STEP 1 – Start with a major accident of hazardous event (release of toxic/
flammable material, vessel failure). This is called a TOP EVENT.

STEP 2 – Identify the necessary and sufficient causes for the top event to occur.
How can the top event happen? What
are the causes of this event?

STEP 3 – Continue working backwards and follow the series of events that would
lead to the top event. Go backwards until a basic event with a known
frequency is reached (pump failure, human error).
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Standard Fault Tree:
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Example:
Develop a Fault Tree for a flat tire!

Flat Tire
(TOP
EVENT)

Driving over Tire failure

debris
on the road

Defective Worn Tire

Tire
.
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
AND GATE

Car Flat Tire 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 . 𝑃(𝐵)

OR GATE
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
=𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is very small
Tire failure
Driving over
debris on the
road
Defective Worn
Tire Tire
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

Car Flat Tire = 0.3+0.05 = 0.35

Tire failure =0.1+0.2 = 0.3

Driving over
debris on the
road
Defective Worn
Tire Tire

0.05
0.1 0.2
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

Minimal Cut Set

• Minimal cut set analysis rearranges the fault tree so that
any basic event that appears in different parts of the fault
tree is not "double counted" in the quantitative evaluation.
• The result of minimal cut set analysis is a new fault tree,
logically equivalent to the original, consisting of an OR
gate beneath the top event, whose inputs are the minimal
cut sets.
• Boolean Algebra is used for the analyses
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Boolean Algebra
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Given a water pumping system

Develop a fault tree identifying possible scenarios for the failure of

the pump system.
Identify all cut sets and all minimal cut sets from the FT
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

ALL CUT SETS:

P (Pump Fail)
= A.B
=(M+W) . (M+Z)
=M.M + M.Z + W.M + W.Z

M.M, M.Z, W.M, W.Z are all cut

sets.
A cut set is all combination of
basic events that lead to the top
event
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
MINIMAL CUT SETS:

P (Pump Fail)
= A.B
=(M+W) . (M+Z)
=M.M + M.Z + W.M + W.Z
= M + M.Z + W.M + W.Z
= (M+M.Z+M.W) + W.Z
=M + W.Z
M, WZ are the minimal cut sets
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

These two Fault Tress are equivalent

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)

Minimal CUT SET is a CUT

SET if any basic event is
removed the TOP EVENT
will not occur
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Top-down
approach
Replace “OR” gate by vertical arrangement
Minimal Replace “AND” gate by horizontal arrangement
Delete all supersets
CUT SET

Bottom-up
approach
OR gate: use the union rule.
Example: A “OR” B = (A) , (B)

AND gate: use the intersection rule

Example: A “AND” B = (A,B)
MINIMAL CUT SETS – TOP DOWN
MINIMAL CUT SETS – TOP DOWN
MINIMAL CUT SETS – BOTTOM UP
MINIMAL CUT SETS – BOTTOM UP

𝑃𝑇𝑂𝑃 = ෍ 𝐶𝑗
𝑗=1
Bow-Tie Method

Bow-tie use the principles of both fault and event trees, forming a
shape of ‘bow tie’

Critical Event
Bow-Tie Method

Bow tie use the principles of both fault and event trees,
forming a shape of ‘bow tie’

Initiating Fau Critical Eve Occurrenc

Events Event e4 Consequences

Event lt nt
4
Tre Tre
e e

Working Backwards Working Forwards

Deduction Process Induction Process
 Bow-Tie Method

Initiating Fault Critical Event Occurrence 4

Tree Event Tree Consequences

Events Event 4

Working Backwards Working Forwards

Deduction Process Induction Process
Bow-Tie Method
Bow-tie in Accident
Investigations

Linking
causes of
risk to its
Causes Ris Consequences consequences
k
Bow-Tie Method
Steps in Developing Bow-tie Diagram

4. Preventive

4. Corrective
1. 3.

Controls
Control

2.
Causes Risk Consequences
Bow-Tie Method
Example of a Bow-Tie Diagram