Conducting a Risk Assessment

Identifying Hazards & Potential

Impacts to Community Assets
Housekeeping and Virtual Tour

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We will be Recording this Presentation

 Please be advised that FEMA and CalOES (through their

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Housekeeping and Virtual Tour

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Let us know: Would you rather?

Would you rather be: Would you rather be:

1. A deep-sea diver. 1. Invisible.
2. Astronaut. 2. Able to read minds.

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Welcome!

Virtual G-318 Workshop: Local Mitigation Planning

• Module 1: The Planning Process
• Module 2: Conducting a Risk Assessment
• Module 3: Developing a Mitigation Strategy
• Module 4: Plan Maintenance and Implementation

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Welcome!

Thank you for joining Module 2: Conducting a Risk

Assessment

Today, we’ll discuss:

• Risk Assessment Overview.
• Identifying and Profiling Hazards.
• Identifying and Profiling Exposed Community Assets.
• Assessing and Summarizing Impacts and Vulnerability.
• From Vulnerability to Mitigation.

This will be followed by the Office Hour and an introduction

to the Resource Library.

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Today’s Agenda

9:00 AM – 9:15 AM Welcome and Technology Tour

Conducting a Risk Assessment

• Learning Sessions
9:15 AM – 11:30 AM
• Activities and Breakout Rooms
• Breaks

11:30 AM Module Evaluation

11:30 AM – 12:00 PM Office Hour/Resource Library Walk-through

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Today’s Speakers

We’ll hear from:

• Karen McCready-Hoover, Emergency Services Coordinator,

CalOES Local Mitigation Planning
• Phillip Labra, Senior Emergency Services Coordinator,
CalOES Local Mitigation Planning
• Xing Liu, Community Planner, FEMA Region 9

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Risk Assessment Overview

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Mitigation Training and Technical Assistance Modules
Conduct a Develop a
Planning Plan Adoption Plan
Risk Mitigation and Maintenance Implementation
Process
Assessment Strategy

Introduction to Identifying & Profiling Assessing Review, Adoption, and

Plan Maintenance
Mitigation Exposed Community Capabilities Approval of the Plan
Assets
Developing Mitigation Continued Public Implementing the
Planning Team
Goals Involvement Plan
Identifying & Profiling
Hazards
Identifying & Considerations for Moving Mitigation
Participation Plan Updates
Evaluating Mitigation Forward
Assessing &
Actions
Summarizing Impacts
Mitigation Funding
Plan Incorporation & Vulnerability
and Assistance
Preparing the Action
Plan
Prioritizing Risks and
Vulnerabilities

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What Is a Risk Assessment?

 A process that helps communities:

 Understand how natural events can impact them
 Communicate vulnerabilities
 Inform decision making

 Risk assessment provides the basis for the mitigation strategy

to reduce losses.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Natural Hazard, Community Assets, and Risk

Note: Modified from U.S. Geological Survey and Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience Models.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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First, Look at the Current Approved Hazard Mitigation
Plan
 Did FEMA or the State make recommended
changes in the Plan Review Tool?
 Are the community assets from the old plan
the same?
 Think about substantial development that has
taken place in recent years.
 What hazards did you profile?
 Are there any new ones that should be included
this time?
 How did you assess risk? Did it work?
 What will you do differently this time?
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Identifying and Profiling
Hazards
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Natural Hazard, Community Assets, and Risk

Note: Modified from U.S. Geological Survey and Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience Models.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILIT Y RISK

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Hazard Identification
 Identify all hazards that may impact a community.
 Provide the best available information to show hazard impacts.
 Reflect any changes in hazards since the previous plan.

Check your State’s HMP for common hazards that you should
consider profiling.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Types of Hazards

Natural Hazard Technological Hazard Human-Caused Hazard

• The focus on the mitigation plan should be on natural

hazards, though others can be included, as well.
• Risks and hazards may have changed since your last update,
or the quality of data may have improved. These changes
should be incorporated.
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Secondary/Cascading Hazards
- Some hazards can produce another, separate hazard, or “cascading
event”.
- Consider discussing climate change as an exacerbating factor to a
given hazard

Drought + Intense Landslides +

Wildfire Rainstorms Flood After Fire

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Hazard Profiling Includes:
Location

Extent

Previous Occurrences

Probability of Future Events

• Has anything changed since the current HMP was adopted?

• What new data are available?
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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 Location
 Clearly identify areas
vulnerable to damage
by each natural event.
 If possible, show
locations using maps.
 Specify hazards that
affect entire planning
area.
 Multi-jurisdictional
plan needs to ID
location of each hazard
for each jurisdiction.
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Extent
 Do not confuse extent with geographic Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-Scale)
boundaries!
Massive
 Measure of a hazard event’s strength
 Value on an established scientific scale or
measurement system Devastating
 Other measures of magnitude, such as water
depth or wind speed Severe
 Speed of onset of a hazard event
 Event duration Considerable

 Check your State HMP for examples

Moderate

 Check out FEMA’s Extent documentation at Light

the Resource Library

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Previous Occurrences
 Describe how each hazard has affected your community in the past
 Consider including:
 Dates of events
 Description of the damage that occurred
 Duration of each event
 Include Presidential Emergency and Disaster Declarations
 Local knowledge from elders and libraries

 Be sure to include events since previous HMP and as recent as possible

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Probability of Future Occurrences
 Consider how often hazards occur.
 Looking at probability, consider one of the following
approaches:
 Qualitative Approach
 Regional Data Approach
 Down-scaled Data Projections Approach
 Historical Analysis Approach

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Qualitative Approach
 Descriptions can be based on community knowledge.
 You can use general descriptors.

High = Medium =
Every Year Every Other
Year
Low =
Every Ten
Years

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Regional Data Approach
 In California, local plans must
use Adaptation Planning Guide
(APG) for climate data
 Adaptation Clearinghouse-
[Link]
 If local data is limited
 Use National, Regional, or State
data to identify probability
 Look at climate trends affecting
the Nation at large

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Down-scaled Data Projections Approach
 Uses more localized data to identify trends
 Allows your community to see how future conditions will change

The Climate Explorer, [Link]

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Historical Analysis Approach

𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂
 = 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡

15 flooding event
occurrences 30% chance of a
= future flood
50 years with occurrence
data recorded

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Multi-Jurisdictional Considerations
 Describe unique or varied hazards
 Assess risks for each jurisdiction

Town

City County
Multi-
Jurisdiction

Tribe District

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Questions?

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Community Outreach and
Engagement
Identifying and Profiling
Exposed Community Assets
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Natural Hazard, Community Assets, and Risk

Note: Modified from U.S. Geological Survey and Oregon Partnership for Disaster Resilience Models.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILIT Y RISK

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Types of Community Assets

People *

Built Environment
• Structures (beyond what you
own)
• Critical Facilities and
Infrastructure

Natural Resources

Economy *
*Exposure of these assets is directly
related to the other asset types

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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People
 Residents
 Workers
 Types and locations of visiting
populations
 Higher Risk Populations
 Seniors
 Infants and children
 Individuals with disabilities
 People with limited English
 People with insecure housing
 Lower-income individuals
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Who may experience higher risks?
 Listos California is a
disaster preparedness
campaign for higher risk
demographics
 Provides culturally and
linguistically appropriate
support and training
 Higher risk groups should
be meaningfully involved
in the mitigation
planning process

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Built Environment: Structures
 Include locations, types, value, age and
construction materials
 Consider infrastructure:
 Existing
 Future Development

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Activity #1: Characteristics of the Built Environment
What characteristics about the built environment
should you be inventorying? It depends on the hazard!
Use the chat box to share your answers with the group.

Flood Fire Earthquake

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Where to find structure information for your community

 HAZUS- general building stock

 U.S. Census
 Open source maps (e.g. Google Earth/Maps)
 THIRA
 County tax assessor parcel data
 General plan
 Local housing element
 Local general or specific plans
 Local zoning code

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Built Environment: Critical Facilities and Infrastructure
 Plan should include:
 Location, types, age, and value
 Relation to one another
 Identification and profiles should
also include:
 Planned improvements
 Infrastructure for new
development

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Where to find critical facility and infrastructure information

 Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data

(public)
 US Census
 Public works department
 Local, Regional or State transportation departments
 County OES
 Regional planning consortiums (MTC, ABAG, SACOG,
SANDAG, etc.)

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Built Environment: At-Risk Historic Assets
 Review the State Historic Preservation
Office’s (SHPO) inventory of historic
assets.
 Compare with SHPO priorities, e.g.,
grant opportunities that help fund
mitigation actions (for which those
assets may be eligible).

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Natural Resources
Areas where conservation of
environmental functions:
 Reduce magnitude of hazards
 Help achieve other community
objectives
 Protects critical habitat areas

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Economy
 Major employers
 Primary economic sectors
 Key infrastructure that supports economic
activity

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Identifying At-Risk Assets
 Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
is a way of analyzing and presenting
geographic data such as land uses and
risk areas.
 If GIS is available: Overlay mapping and
hazard information that has been
created with the locations of community
New Flood Maps Show Assets Near
assets. Floodplain
 If GIS is not available: Use local
knowledge of structure locations
relative to known hazard locations,
noting the hazard type and extent.
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Identifying At-Risk Assets
 If you have a list of assets
already, confirm that it’s still
valid.
 Consider assets that may
have been added through
new development or
demographic change.

Park Visitor Center (Under

Construction)

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Community Lifelines
 Lifelines are another way to conceptualize critical assets.
 These are the most fundamental services in the community.
 When disrupted, decisive intervention is required to stabilize the
incident.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Activity #2: Community Lifelines and Hazards
What lifelines support hospitals and are vulnerable to natural hazards?
Use the chat box to share your answers with the group.

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How do HMPs Incorporate Community Lifelines?
City and County of San Francisco Hazards and Climate Resilience Plan, 2020

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Questions?

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Break

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Plan Integration
Assessing and Summarizing
Impacts and Vulnerability
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Assess Impacts and Vulnerability
 Look at the impacts for each hazard:
 Identify population and assets exposed
to hazard
 Define unsafe community or structural
conditions (vulnerability)
 Estimate future potential losses
(impacts)
 Provide an overall summary of the
community’s assets, populations, and
greatest vulnerabilities

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Impact and Vulnerability
Impact
The different ways a hazard can affect the community
- Lives
- Structures
- Infrastructure and facilities
- Economy
- Historical value, etc.

Vulnerability
Weakness or gap in protection to an exposed asset
- Characteristics of population
- Age and condition of infrastructure
- Proximity to hazards

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Impact vs. Extent
 Impact  Extent
 Refers to the effect of a  The potential magnitude of
hazard on the people and a hazard no matter where it
property in the community, hits or what is in harm’s
for example: way
 Injuries and deaths  This does not refer to the
 Percentage of property geographic location!
damaged

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Methods for Assessing Vulnerability and Impacts

Historical Analysis Exposure Analysis Scenario Analysis

Start with your past Overlay your assets Ask yourself “what if?”

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Historical Analysis: Start With Your Past
Based on past events, what are potential future impacts and losses?
 Use for higher frequency events with available data on past impacts
and losses (e.g., winter storms, stormwater flooding).
 Consider vulnerability of new development.

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Exposure Analysis: Overlay Your Assets
Consider:
 Number, type, value of assets
 Magnitude of hazard or event
(e.g., high vs. moderate wildfire
hazard areas)
 Possibility of future
development in hazard-prone
areas based on planning and
zoning

INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Example: Exposure Analysis

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Scenario Analysis: Ask Yourself “What if?”
Consider:
 Potential impacts if an event occurs, i.e., direct
damage, casualties, down time, and others
 Quality and availability of data
 Available tool(s)
 Modeling tools like Hazus
 Spreadsheet analysis

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Example- Scenario Analysis Using HAZUS

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Demo: Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

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Which Structures are Exposed to Flood Risk?

EXPOSED

NOT EXPOSED

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Exposure = Risk? No!

First Floor Height 2’

Flood Depth 5’
Damage % 40%
Damage $ 150,000

First Floor Height 5’

Flood Depth 2’
Damage % 5%
Damage $ 5,000

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Not Only Consider the What, but the Who

Assisted Living
Facility First Floor Height 2’
Flood Depth 5’
Damage % 40%
Damage $ 150,000

First Floor Height 5’

Flood Depth 2’
Damage % 5%
Damage $ 5,000

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Not Only Consider the Structures, but the Essential
Infrastructures that Service these Structures

Assisted Living
Facility

Bridge

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Does the Risk Change if We are Dealing with Multiple
Hazards?

Assisted Living
Facility

Elementary School

Bridge

Substation

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Considerations for Updating the Risk
Assessment

 Increasing vulnerability from development in hazard-

prone areas, climate change, etc.

 Decreasing vulnerability due to implementation of

mitigation actions, adoption of improved codes and
ordinances, etc.

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How Can Plan Integration Improve the Process?

 More readily available, useful data

 Examples include:
 Community land use changes already captured in the
Comprehensive Plan
 High risk areas already listed in the Emergency Operations Plan
 Critical facility data inventories conducted by local fire official

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Summarize Overall Vulnerability and Impacts
 Summarize each jurisdiction’s overall vulnerability to each hazard.
 Focus on communicating analysis and findings to:
 Emergency managers
 Planners
 Policy makers
 Community members

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Questions?

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Break

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 Plan Integration
From Vulnerability to Mitigation

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Develop Problem Statements
Source: Maryland Emergency

 Use the information from the Risk and

Management Agency

Vulnerability Assessments to formulate

problem statements
 Clear, concise
 Easily understood
 Identify key issues or problems
 Relate to specific community assets or
hazards

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Example Problem Statements

Napa County, CA

“79 critical infrastructure features (including 15 adult residential

facilities and 12 family child care homes) are located in a severe
earthquake probability zone in American Canyon.”

Kern County, CA

“Properties in the area of Kelso Creek have a total value of approx.

$7.5 million, and many properties are not floodproofed to the
County’s standards. Flooding could affect more than 200
residents in the area. Portions of Kelso Creek Road are at risk
with an average cost of repairs of approximately $80,000 each
time it floods.”

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Remember this Risk Assessment?

Assisted Living
Facility

Elementary School

Bridge

Substation

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Activity #3: Identifying Problems

We will spend the next 15 minutes in small groups discussing and

identifying possible problem statements pertaining to the previous risk
assessment.
-
You’ll be randomly sorted into a breakout rooms.
-
Afterward, we will reconvene, and each group will have the opportunity to
provide a high-level summary of what was discussed. Please identify
someone to report out to the larger group.

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Activity #3: Identifying Problems
 Your facilitator will use the risk assessment results from the
previous exercise.
 The goal is to come up with possible problem statements
pertaining to that assessment.
 We’ll come back to these problem statements in Module 3.

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Activity #3: Identifying Problems

Report Out

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Repetitive and Severe Repetitive Loss Properties
 Repetitive Loss (RL) Property
 Any insurable building for which two or
more claims of more than $1,000 were
paid by the National Flood Insurance
Program (NFIP) within any rolling 10-
year period, since 1978
 May or may not be currently insured by
the NFIP
 Severe Repetitive Loss Property
 When there are at least four losses, each
over $5000; or
 two or more losses where the building
payments are over the property value
INTRO ASSETS HAZARDS VULNERABILITY RISK

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Questions?

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8
2

Module Evaluation
Visit the Resource Library at: Hazard Mitigation Local Hazard Mitigation Program

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