POLITICAL PARTIES AND PARTY SYSTEM 1.1 INTRODUCTION Political parties are indispensable to any democratic system and play the most crucial role in the electoral process - in setting up candidates and conducting election campaigns. Political parties formulate, consolidate and express public opinion. They simplify the election process, enlighten the people on political issues and their responsibilities. They act as the best link between the government and the common man. A.D. Lindsay, [Link] Iver, Joseph Schumpeter, Maurice Duverger, Edmund Burke and others have emphasised the significance of Political Parties in democracy. According to Burke, Political Party is a body of men united for promoting the principles of national interest. The importance of political parties has grown proportionately in accordance with the growing extension of franchise as it typically happened in Western liberal democracies. As political suffrage gradually became universal, parties emerged as the agency through which parliamentary cliques needed them to acquire mass electoral support. Political parties have been an inevitable outgrowth in representative electoral democracies. Despite anti-party sentiments of George Washington, Lord Bolingbroke, Mahatma Gandhi and Jayaprakash Narayan, the historical experience, at least thus far, suggests that a system of representative democracy cannot do without them. Party system is inevitable for the existence of a democratic system. Political parties are the social factors that enlighten, represent and protect the people in a representative democracy. There may be several organizations; the political parties have certain peculiarities. Those are organizational structure and stability, definite objectives, activities on the basis of ideas and principles, General stand points on public issues, ultimate objective of attaining governmental power. Eckstein defined Party System as ‘competitive interaction patterns among parties and Duverger defined it as ‘the forms and modes of their coexistence, then degree of competition is clearly a crucial variable. Broadly, the party system refers to complex social and political processes that go beyond individual leaders, societal associations, political groups and organizations to an intricate pattern of their interaction and interrelationships. These interaction patterns are governed not only by constitutions, Kumud Ranjan Singh, Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Deshbandu College, University of Delhi,Introduction to Political Processes in Indiq 12 statutes, rules, regulations and institutions, but a whole range of ive issues that shape political attitudes and behaviors at critical stages of evolution in 8 sooty and polity, ‘The pattern of interaction is reflected in ideologies and persona : and fragmentation, coalescence and split, cooperation and opposition, support and protest, voter mobilization and electoral competition. 4.2 ORIGIN OF THE PARTY SYSTEM IN INDIA Rajni Kothari in his work Politics in India, has agued that the party system, evolved from an identifiable political centre. This political centre, carved during the nationalist movement, was comprised of the political elite sharing common socio-economic background. It was educated, urban, upper-caste belonging mainly to middle and upper classes. The common socio- economic background of the elite resulted in the homogeneity that became a defining feature of the political centre as well as of the party system. The ruling party and the opposition, coming from the same social background shared the social perceptions and converged on many issues. A consensus, therefore, existed within the system around the basic values. The Indian National Congress was the institutional manifestation of this political centre. It was not only an important expression of the nationalist movement but was also a dynamic political organisation that formed the indigenous base for the political system. Accommodating almost all-political groups of political importance, it provided a very crucial political space for political negotiations and bargaining. The history of origin and growth of political parties in India can be traced to the days of India's , struggle for freedom. The Indian National Congress was our first political party; it came into existence in the year 1885. There were some groups formed by patriotic Indians before that, but they did not converge into becoming a political party. The Indian National Congress was a natural and inevitable outcome of anational awakening. The evolution of the party system after Independence is basically a study of transformation from one-party dominant system to a complex of multi-party configuration, in which strong trends of fragmentation, factionalism, and regionalism, coupled with the desire to form alliances for seeking a share in the pie of power (irrespective of any strong ideological or programmatic commitments) have been witnessed. 1.3 PRE-INDEPENDENCE PERIOD ‘The history of Party System in India, can be traced to the institutionalization of Indian National Congress which held its first meeting on 29 December, 1885 inno (initially created as a result of efforts of A. O. Hume and prominent person ain ee intelligentsia for controlled public participation and to know public Sealine? of an S t0 avoid seme eePolitical Parties and Party System a the repeat of an incident like one in 1857), which subsequently evolved as an organizational base for India's national movement against British imperialism. As the Congress consolidated organizationally and gained in popularity with people, a process conducive for the crystallization of political parties and political groups, it set in motion the process of different ideas to bloom, rules of political mobilization and competition among a different groups to mobilize people on issues of public importance. The evolution of the Congress during the pre-independence period can be broadly divided into three stages during which it not only grew as a movement and a political party but it also help develop the Indian Party System. During its first stage, from 1885 to 1905, the Congress was like an elite debating society, petitioning the government for extra privileges for the few, in a manner that has been described as ‘politics of mendicancy’ . The second stage, spanning over a decade (1905-16), is crucial, as in this period, the great debate between moderates, ( having faith in their strategy of petitions and appeals as well as a good sense of the British) and the extremists ( who were for more aggressive strategy for pressing the demands ) took place . The Lal (Lala Lajpat Rai), Bal (Bal Gangadhar Tilak) and Pal (Bipin Chandra Pal) extolled the glorious past of India, particularly its militant dimension to raise self-confidence and believed that ‘Political rights will have to be fought for'. The moderates, on the other hand, always believed in persuasion. Though they cooperated in the Swadeshi and boycott movements as well as the protest against the partition of Bengal, the moderates led by Dadabhai Naoroji supported and adopted Swaraj and self-rule as the aim of the Congress movement in 1906 session of the Congress. The two, however, formally separated in the Surat session of Congress in 1907. Thereafter, for nearly a decade, both the ‘groups worked separately until they again came together in 1916, From the perspective of the emergence of the party system, the struggle between the moderates and extremist factions with two contrasting strategies within party until they split, and then carrying on with different strategies until they came together, Teflects not only the maturing of a political party but also demonstrates the beginning of the process of evolution of the party system. The Lucknow Pact between the Congress and the Muslim League in 1906, largely the effort of Tilak, accepting the demand of the Muslim League for a separate electorate for Muslims and Minorities, and provided for in the Act of 1909 in the Provincial and Imperial Legislative Councils Was another important event in the evolution of the party system. The third stage, beginning 1916, during which the Congress took shape of mass movement, came to end in 1946 with formation of an interim Government. This stage defined and developed the rules of the game for the operation of the party system as “val groups within the Congress and around it, had developed, They learnt the game of politics through collaboration with and in opposition to each other. | ,, The catalyst for the shift to the third stage was Mahatma Gandhi's return to India | 2 1915 and his joining the nationalist struggle. He transformed the nature of the a14 Introduction to Political Processes in India movement and Indian politics through his principles of 'ahimsa and satyagrah’ and by drawing in the participation of all sections of society in the national movement. About the change brought to the Congress, Nehru says: "Gandhi for the first time entered the Congress organization and immediately brought about a complete change in the constitution, He made it democratic and a mass organization. Democratic it had been previously also, but it had so far been limited in franchise and restricted to the upper classes. Now the peasants rolled in and, in its new garb, it began to assume the look of a vast agrarian organization with a strong sprinkling of middle classes. This agrarian character was to grow. Industrial workers also came in but as individuals and not in their separate organized capacity . ‘The transition in the strategy and social base of the Congress, from petitioning to mass politics and from intelligentsia to mass base, by the end of second decade was crucial for the development of the party system in India. With the opening of membership of the Congress organization to masses with each stage of civil disobedience movement during 1920s and 1930s (against the payment of land taxes, land reforms in rural areas of Bihar, Gujarat, Andhra and Uttar Pradesh), the base of the nationalist cadre and leadership widened to include persons from small towns and rural areas. And as the Congress graduated from being an elite debating club and transcended its narrow social base to represent the aspiration of people during the early years of twentieth century, conflicts of various kinds too emerged within the organisation and efforts for managing such conflicts had to be made. Such efforts further aided the evolution of the party system. Moreover as the Congress got transformed into a mass movement by 1916, the rules for operation of the party system evolved, and rival groups developed. With election becoming a more and more competitive, political groups began to take the shape of parties and parties together of a party system The formation of the Swaraj Party after Gaya session of the Congress in 1922 by CR Das over the issue of participation in the provincial assemblies and their return to Congress within five years contributed to developing a culture of dissent and tolerance. The formation of Congress Socialist Party group in 1934, with active involvement of Acharya Narendra Dev and Jaiprakash Narayan, principally ( which opposed the Gandhian strategy and tactics like Gandhi Irwin Pact of 1931) signified the evolution of the Congress as a multi-stream and multi-ideology party. Jayaprakash Narayan in 1934 told his followers, "We are placing before Congress a program and we want the Congress to accept it. If the Congress does not accept it, we do not say we are going ‘out of Congress. If today we fail, tomorrow we will try, and if tomorrow we will fail, we will try again" . The presence of the Congress Socialist Party[CSP] within the Congress , which advocated a different, other than Gandhian, left oriented ideology was an indication of democratization of the party. But because of prolonged disagreement with Patel grouP wee eee re roPolitical Parties and Party System 1s within the Congress, the Socialists felt compelled to leave the Congress in 1945. The existence of the CSP for a decade and half, and its politics contained the seeds of an emerging party system. The formation of Muslim League on 30th December 1906 was an extension of the quest of the Muslim intelligentsia and wealthy elite for a place under the British rule. It Ied them to contest the nationalist politics of the Congress and affirmation of loyalty to the Crown. Moreover, whether it was the partition of Bengal or the question of the separate electorate for the Muslims, the British took special care to see that embers of separate identity existing among the Muslim elite were kept smouldering and were fanned into a raging flame by encouraging conflictual and communal politics of Muslim league. This shows the emerging socio-economic contradictions that shaped the politics of that time. From its formation in 1906 till it made a demand for a separate state of Pakistan for the Muslims, it remained part of pre-independence party system. Another factor contributing to the evolution of the party system was the formation of Communist Party of India and the establishment of RSS. The Communist Party of India was first formed as an emigrant group in 1920, by M.N. Roy, who dispatched several Indian communists trained in Russia to organize a communist movement in India. The party did not play any significant role in the Indian national movement and was banned many times by the British. It received the recognition of the government in July 1942 since it supported the British-Indian War Time Home policy and termed quit India's movement launched by the Congress as anti-people. Equally significant in the evolution of the party system in India was the establishment of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh [RSS] in 1925 by Dr. Keshav Baliram Hedgewar along with four trusted friends in Nagpur. An active Congressman from 1916 to 1924, he was once the general secretary of Nagpur Pradesh Congress Committee. Activities of Islamic fundamentalists in 1920s across the country led him to believe in the need of organizing Hindu society, particularly the youth to keep a balance and obviate the possibility of Muslim domination. RSS was basically ‘as a kind of educational body Whose objective was to train a group of Hindu men who, on the basis of their character- building experience in RSS, would work to unite the Hindu community so that India could again become an independent country and a creative society’ . Even prior to the establishment of the RSS, United Bengal Hindu Movement and Punjab Hindu Maha Sabha were established, as an immediate reaction to the founding of Muslim League, Later, the two converged in the establishment of Akhil Bharatiya Hindu Mahasabha. Many Arya Samajis and active supporters and member of Congress like Lala Lajpat Rai and Pt. Madan Mohan Malaviya too joined the Hindu Mahasabha and continued simultaneously in the Congress also. The new crop of Mahasabha leade active politics. So did Dr. Shyama Prasa Congress leader , who on the differenc 1s like Vinayak Damodar Savarkar remained in d Mukherjee, the leader from Bengal, a prominent e over the issue of lenient attitude of Congresswn to Political Processes in India 16 Introductior towards Pakistan in 1950, quit Congress and founded the BJS with active support of RSS. 1.4 POST-INDEPENDENCE ERA processes and the structural pattern of the hases - nt party system or the ‘Congress the Congress party both .d out that the Congress ‘The scholars have classified the electoral party system in India into following distinctive p! Phase I: 1952-67 denotes the one dominai t Dominance’ phase marking the overwhelming dominanc® of at the centre as well as in the states. Scholars have pointes during this period was a ‘party of consensus’ ; Phase Il: 1967-89 signifies the phase of "Congress Dominanct under Challenge’ from the opposition forces. It has also been described as the second Congress system. ‘This phase can also be termed as the Indira- Rajiv phase of Congress restoration. Phase III: 1989-98 is characterized by the 'Post-Congress Polity and the Emergence of a Multi-Party System’. The big story that came up during this period is the relative decline of the Congress and the rise of BJP and other regional and state based parties in the electoral arena Phase IV: 1998 102014 is a phase of stable ‘Coalition Era’. The fragmentation of the party system is reconfigured during this phase giving rise to bi-polar multi party system, which is the outcome of a multi-party Post-Congress polity with the fragmentation of party system in India. ‘This phase can be said to have ended in 2014, with the emergence of the BJP in the 16th Lok Sabha elections, as a party with majority of seats in Lok Sabha and return to one-party rule - though of course the Modi government has positioned itself as @ coalition government in order to honour its pre-poll commitments. ‘The first phase of Indian party system has been conceptualized as the "Congress system" by Rajni Kothari and as ‘one-party dominant system’ by W.H. Morris-Jones. During this phase, elections were a multi-party affair, but the Congress was voted to power time and again with overwhelming parliamentary majorities. The Congress system, as conceptualised by Rajni Kothari, comprised what he called the ‘party of consensus’. Kothari argued that before and after Independence, the Congress was successful in presenting itself as the "authoritative spokesman of the nation as well as its affirmed agent of criticism and change". The reasons for Congress hegemony were several. The party was a broad church, containing many shades of opinion within it. It hada strong presence in all states of the Union. It had been led by towering personalities - Gandhi, Nehru, Bose, Patel - men of charisma and character who eee tial rk within the ideological parameters set by the party and its leaders. Thus, most parties who opposed the Congress still upheld welfarism, religious pluralism, and non-alignment in foreign policy.Political Parties and Party System 17 Buttressed by its institutional charisma as the party of Indian Independence and the personal charisma of its leaders, combined with divided opposition, the Congress appeared invincible. The non- Congress parties had a remote chance of forming Government in the near future. The Congress combined within its fold the role of the Government as well as of the opposition. The more effective opposition came from the Congress dissidents than from the Opposition parties . The non- Congress parties had a closer understanding and interaction with the like minded Congress factions than among themselves.. Independence and partition, created a vacuum of sorts in the party system as the Congress virtually monopolized the political arena as the only dominant party by virtue of its identification with the independence movement, but the seeds of the party system were shown during the pre-independence politics. Thus by 1951, the time when preparations for first general election were on, four major group of parties emerged in the India's political arena. The Congress, Socialist Party, Kisan Mazdoor Praja Party (KMPP), and many smaller state's parties formed the first group that believed in the democratic and secular state as provided in the constitution. The Communist Party of India and the Marxist parties that rejected the western type parliamentary democracy and advocated for Soviet or the Chinese model formed another group. The third group consisted of Hindu sectarian parties like the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (BJS), Hindu Mahasabha, Ram Rajya Parishad and so on. The fourth group consisted of parties having regional agendas like Akali Dal, Scheduled Caste Federation, Jharkhand party, Tamilnadu Congress and other regional groups. This was an uneven election as the Congress enjoyed the mass support among all sections of society by virtue of its identification with the independence movement. In this context, it is significant that the day before his assassination in 1948, Gandhi prepared a proposal, which was to be presented before the Working Committee, observing that Congress ‘as a propaganda vehicle and parliamentary machine has outlived its use and that ‘it must be kept out of unhealthy competition with political parties. He was in favour of the Congress becoming a non-political, nongovernmental social service society concerned with rural development . The Congress as expected in first general election won 45 % of the national vote and 73 % of the seats (364 out of 489) in Lok Sabha . In the state assemblies, the Congress won 68.47 % of seats (2248 out of 3283) with 42.2 percent of vote and got the majority in all but three states, where again, it emerged as the single largest party. Out of 14 parties that entered into the fray as the national party only five (Congress, Socialist Party, KMPP, CPI and BJS) could retain their status as the national party by garnering more than 3 % of the votes polled . ‘The Congress dominance continued till mid 1960's unchallenged except in Kerala where Non- Congress Coalition led by Communist Party came to power in 1956. In first two-decades of Congress Party's total domination of the political space, the regional sentiments were expressed through the Congress Party itself via vibrant intra party democratic mechanisms. The regional pressure that was exerted on the Congresserin 18 - ithin the Congress. This was an aps from within the C ; Chet Ministers (K-Kamnraj in Tamil Nadu, SK Se ae Asin Pradesh, S. Njalingsp in aes ‘ee ey cesional pals known a the period of ‘federalisation OY 1960s had to work like a federal were so much in operation thatthe COMEEC™ regional parties, putting al organization whose state units were at ines ea ae a i force central leadership i : emai a threatened for the first time in the 1967 wngress's countrywide dominance was isa In this election, the Congress won only 40.78% votes = ociaie ‘The party retained power at the Centre, but lost in as many as eight ee Kothari demonstrated, the Congress remained ‘the preponderant politica os ae country’. For in six of the states that the Congress lost, the government was Jc by former Congressman. More importantly, however, the results proved that the Congress could be defeated at the elections. But there was no substitute as yet. Most non-Congress coalition governments that were formed after the 1967 elections in the States did not survive for long. They lost majority, and either new combinations were formed or President's rule had to be imposed. ‘The real challenge to Indira Gandhi, who became the Prime Minister in 1966, came not from the opposition but from within her own party. She had to deal with the ‘Syndicate’, a group of powerful and influential leaders within the Congress. The Syndicate had played a role in her installation as the Prime Minister. These leaders expected Indira Gandhi to follow their advice. Gradually, however, Indira Gandhi attempted to assert her position within the government and the party. Not only did she need to build her independence from the Syndicate, Indira has also to work towards regaining the ground that the Congress had lost in the 1967 elections. Indira Gandhi adopted a very bold strategy. She converted the power struggle within her party into an ideological struggle. She launched a series of initiatives to give the government policy a Left orientation. She got the Congress Working Committee to adopt a Ten Point Programme in May 1967. This Programme included social control of banks, nationalisation of General Insurance, ceiling on urban Property and income. Public distribution of food grains, land reforms and provision of house sites to the rural poor. While the ‘syndicate’ leaders formally approved this Left-win a they had serious reservations about the same. A split in the party was in the offing, ’ - besa sare tie oor phase actually began in the second half of 1969, plit in the Congress party. The split in the Congress reduced Indira Gandhi Government to a minori : ; minority. Ye 5 office with the issue-based support of the Co 'y. Yet her government continued in Centre, actually came from regional sawPolitical Parties and Party System 19 Table 1.1: Electoral Performance of Parties 1951- 1967 Election | Majority Vote Share as | Second Vote Share as Year | Party | Seas | %ofvalid | Largest | Seats | % of valid votes polled | Party votes polled 1951 INC 364 44.99 cPl 16 3.29 1957 INC 371 47.78 CPI 2 8.92 1962 INC 361 44.72 cPr 29 9.94 1967 INC 283 40.78 SWA 44 8.67 Source: Election Commission of India Having fashioned herself as a messiah of the poor, Mrs. Gandhi fought and won the 1971 elections on the compelling slogan, "Garibi Hatao’. Through 'Garibi Hatao’ Indira Gandhi tried to generate a support base among the disadvantaged, especially among the landless. labourers, Dalits and Adivasis, minorities, women and the unemployed youth. The slogan of Garibi Hatao and the programmes that followed it were part of Indira Gandhi's political strategy of building an independent nationwide political support base. During this phase, the Congress was restored to power at the Centre as well as in most States. Before the year ended, she had won a more emphatic victory- in the battlefield against Pakistan. Opposition politicians were now falling over one another to sing her praises. The luck, it seemed, was all running Mrs. Gandhi's way- she could even take credit for the Green Revolution, which had actually been set in motion by her predecessor Lal Bahadur Shastri, who did not, however, live long to enjoy the fruits. ‘The Congress regime under Mrs. Gandhi in the 1970s turned into a political pyramid marked by extreme centralisation of power at the top and populist mass mobilization of the electorate through personal and dynastic political charisma rather than a democratically constructed pluralist and federal Congress party. To quote Stanley A. Kochanek : " Since the formal structure of power outlined in both the Indian Constitution and the Constitution of the Congress Party was federal with strong unitary and centralising features, the initiation of this new process did not require major structural change." ‘The results of the Lok Sabha elections of 1971, were as dramatic as was the decision to hold these elections. The Congress(R) of Indira in alliance with CPI won more seats and votes than the Congress had ever won in the first four general elections, ‘The combine won 375 seats in Lok Sabha and secured 48.4 per cent votes. Congress(R) ‘won 352 seats with about 44 per cent of the popular votes on its own. Congress (O), the party with so many stalwarts could get less than one-fourth of the votes securedIntroduction to Political Processes in India 1.10 i i in merely 16 seats. With this the Congress party led by Tndira Gandhi's party and win merely 16 seats, WK . Taira Gandhi a shed its claim to being the ‘eal’ Congress and restored to it the dominant position in Indian politics. wed a grand failure. With two successive and Alliance of the opposition pro ea ices om he State level, the dominance of the ‘one at the centre and other at t f "The Congress was now in power in almost all the States. It «different social sections. Within a span of four years, Indira the challenge to her leadership and to the dominant position of election victories- Congress was restored. was also popular acros: Gandhi had warded off the Congress party. ‘Table 1.2. Party Position in 1971 elections Parties Seats Indian National Congress 352 Pl 23 CPI(M) 25 DMK 23 Bhartiya Jan Sangh 22 Independent 14 Others 59 Source: Election Commission Data The centrist and right-wing opposition formed a * ied a "grand alliance” duri arya clots, finally got electoral success in the general elections 7 or risoned together during the Emergency, the senior oppositi r | toget /, oppositi i Personal animosity towards Mrs. Gandhi and the Congress to a pier al to overcome their division and rivalries. In January 1977 opposition par ies Bae oa f reactival a pre-Emergency multiparty front, campai font, campaigned under the bi and won dramatic electoral victory a March 1977 The any Party as an ne of Congress (O), the Jan Sangh, the Bhartiya Lok Dal , th S joel Pa ad imprisoned Congress dissidents, and the Congress for Demon ns Par some of Jagjivan Ram. for Democracy----- a group led by i ‘ ite the diversity of i the different social s : ersity of its as i sfnaat boat strata that they represented, the mem Meee of parties and that presse doe ideological and programmatic consei oe anne ssed decentralization, development of rural inom ge eo oe opportunites. rural industries, and employmentPolitical Parties and Party System Lil Table 1.3, Party Position in 1977elections Parties Seats Indian National Congress 154 Janata Party 295 CPI(M) 22 ADK 18 Siromani Akali Dal 09 Independent 09 Others 35 Source: Election Commission Data But the Janata Party government was short lived. It was not ideology but the inability to consolidate partisan organisations and political rivalry among the leadership that led to the demise of the Janata government in 1979. There was political competition among some senior leaders aspiring to head the Government. The rivalry continued during Morarji Desai’s tenure (March 1977- July 1979). Morarji Desai, Charan Singh and Jagjiwan Ram continually conspired to discredit each other. Their connivances ultimately discredited the Janata Party and the Congress (I) came back to power in 1980... The Congress’ return to power at the Centre, however did not mean the restoration of the Congress system. What Indira Gandhi had done was not a revival of the old Congress party. In many ways she had re-invented the party. The party occupied a similar position in terms of its popularity as in the past. But it was a different kind of a party. It relied entirely on the popularity of the supreme leader. It had a weak unevolved organisational structure. The Party did not have many factions, and therefore it did not represent all kinds of opinions and interests. While it won elections, it depended more on some social groups: the poor, the women, Dalits, Adivasis and the minorities. It was not an umbrella party of the Nehruvian days. The new Congress that had emerged was entirely different from its earlier avatar. ‘The return of Mrs. Gandhi with overwhelming majority, notwithstanding, a durable social and political realignment to give a definite shape to an Indian party system was still far away. During the period 1980-89, many significant developments or trends emerged that had cumulative influence in structuring party competitions and shaping the nature of the party system in the next stage. One significant development was the founding of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 1980 which in a way addressed the problem of1.12, Introduction to Political Processes in India ‘dual membership! that had led to the breakdown of the Janata Party. The ‘dual membership’ issue arose when Socialist and other factions within the Janata Party raised objection against those Janata Party members of the erstwhile Jan Sangha who simultaneously kept their membership of the RSS. ‘Another notable event which profoundly affected the inter-party competition was «d by Anti-Sikh riots. In the elections the assassination of Mrs, Gandhi in 1984 followe ts ° which followed Indira Gandhi's assassination, the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi romped back to power riding a crest of sympathy wave. The 1984 elections gave the Congress ste best ever electoral performance, both in terms of votes share as well as seats in the Lok Sabha, The Congress got 414 seats. Telugu Desam Party emerged as the 2nd largest party with 30 seats. Table 1.4. Party Position in 1984 Lok Sabha election Name of Party Seats Won | Change | Votes% Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) 2 2 8% Indian National Congress (INC) 414 48 49% Lok Dal (LKD) 3 8) 6% Communist Party of India (CPI) 6 @ 3% Janta Party (INP) 10 an 1% ‘Coummunist Party of India Marxist) (CPM) 2 (15) 6% Indian Congress (ICS) 5 5 2% Other State Parties 66 32 12% Registered Unrecognised Parties 0 a 1% Independent (IND) B 4 8% Total 541 100% Source: Statistical Report, Election Commission of India, 1985. see BAP under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, which had adopted Gandhian nae its oe ideology could win only two seats. It may not te out of place silo tse BS oe if JP's espousal of Gandhian Socialism signalled a distancing betwee the BIP leadership andthe RSS asthe BIP didnot want to be perceive sll the ‘legitimate o alist Barty. The BIP was desirous to occupy dominant spot among it was imperative that it ite offer itself as an alternative to the Congress, for which tie as ion AROS sh eB eect hearse mePolitical Parties and Party System 1.13 promote Hindu interests. This was because Indira Gandhi had started to dabble in Hindu communal politics after 1980. Not surprisingly, the RSS cadre is said to have very vigorously campaigned for the Congress in 1984, Post 1984 elections, the BJP started to move closer to the RSS, otherwise it risked political irrelevance. It left behind its ‘Gandhian Socialism’ ideological stance and took up Hindu nationalist issues. Thereafter, the BJP started to gather steam with support coming from the Sangh Parivar, and between 1984 and 1989, when the next General elections were held, the BJP posted a remarkable election victory. Further, non-Congressism brought many regional parties together in the National Front (NF) formed in 1988. These included TDP, DMK, AGP and Congress (S) apart from the newly formed Janata Dal. The Janata Party by now had fragmented and its fragments emerged as regional outfits/ state based political parties each of which was vying with the Congress for the centrist space. In the meanwhile the Congress (I) was shifting its economic and ideological posture. It had started to move away from the Nehru- Mahalonobis model of development and began opening up the economy for the private sector through a programme of economic liberalisation. Another ideological shift noted was the Congress dabbling with majority communalism. The opening of the locks of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya for allowing darshan and permitting the Shilanyas of Mandir can be seen in this context.. The Bofor's case also impacted the political realignment and consolidation. After the assassination of Indira Gandhi , a new era in Indian politics emerged. This happened because some features that had emerged in her own time got strengthened : the shift in the economic policies from a command economy to a more market oriented economy, continued shift towards competitive communalism, and the evolution of states as the main theatre of the enactment of many social conflicts. ‘The third phase (1989-98) characterizes the 'Post-Congress Polity and the Emergence of a Multi-Party System’. The period 1989-96, witnessed three governments, V P Singh led National Front (Janata Dal) coalition government with outside support from Left and BJP, Chandrashekhar's rump government with outside support from Congress (I), and a full-term Congress (I) government led by PV Narshimha Rao, which began as a minority government but managed the majority through defection allegedly by bribing the defecting MPs. The period witnessed upsurge among the socially underprivileged, the backward castes and the dalits towards political awakening, During this period, there is the relative decline of the Congress and the rise of BJP and other regional and state based parties. The period marks the onset on coalition era. The 1989 elections was a turning point. Congress competed against National Front , an opposition alliance supported by the BJP and other Left-wing parties, comprising Janta Dal and regional and minor parties. Congress share of votes crashed to 39 percent and it could win only 197 seats. Despite its significant climb down from its1a till the single largest party. The National Front coalition development in party system. It brought in explicitly ‘Telgu Desam , Assam Gana Parishad as well as the left first spatially compatible inter-state alliance of parties, broke down because of ideological incompatibility. 1984 position, Congress was s| (1989-90) was an important regional parties like the DMK. parties together and this was the But the alliance was short lived. It Table 1.5. Party Position in 1989 elections Parties Seats Indian National Congress 197 Pl 12 CPI(M) 33 Janata Dal 143 Bhartiya Janata Party 85 Independent 12 Others 47 Source: Election Commission Data ‘The next elelctions for the 10th Lok Sabha was held in May-June 1991. It produced a ‘hung’ house once again. In this election BJP contested alone. It was held in the background of upper caste backlash against Mandal's OBC reservations and inter- community tensions /violence due to Advani's Rath yatra for ‘liberating’ Lord Ram from inside the Babri Masjid. BJP's vote share grew to around 20 percent and it improved its seat tally considerably from 86 to 120 seats. It emerged as the second Jargest political party in the Lok Sabha. The Congress (1) occupied the position of the single largest party with 220 seats followed by BJP and the Janata Dal. A minority government under the leadership of the Congress (I) President Mr. P. V. Narasimha Rao, who succeeded the assassinated leader Rajiv Gandhi was installed, Table 1.6. Party Position in 1991 elections Parties Seats Indian National Congress 244 cri 14 cPlM) 35 59 Bhartiya Janata Party 120 Independent ol Others ToT Source: Election Commission DataPolitical Parties and Party System 1s The Eleventh Lok Sabha elections in 1996 also produced a hung Parliament. The Congress vote share declined to then historic low of around 29 percent. For the first time , the Congress was overtaken by the BIP as the largest party. BJP won 161 seats whereas Congress could win only 141 seats. Congress, however, remained the largest. party by vote share with about 29 percent compared to BJP's 20 percent. The BJP formed a minority government under the leadership of A. B. Vajpayee. But the Prime Minister had to relinquish office only after thirteen days. When he was not sure of proving his majority in the House, he resigned, Table 1.7. Party Position in 1996 elections Parties Seats Bhartiya Janata Party 161 Indian National Congress 140 CPI(M) 32 Janata Dal 46 ‘Tamil Manila Cong (M) 20 Independent 09 Others 135 Source: Election Commission Data. ‘The fall of the BJP government paved the way for installation of the United Front government first under H. D. Deve Gowda and then I. K. Gujral on 1 June 1996 and 21 April 1997 respectively. The United Front was a 13 parties coalition, with 9 parties joining the government. Congress gave support from outside. This was another case of spatial alliance. It had a certain ideological mooring, as it was arraigned against antisystem-communal BJP. Even the Eleventh Lok Sabha could not complete its full tenure of five years, The elections of 1996 as well as the failure of the BJP to secure parliamentary ‘support of non-Congress parties in 1996 held lessons for the BJP. Analysing the elections it realised that its rise to new strength was due to its more regionally concentrated Yote in 1996 and that it had now run into the limits of contesting alone with a religiously polarizing agenda. Moreover, the failure of the Vajpayee government in securing the Parliamentary support of other parties represented a significant ideological statement on the part of a range of secular parties. The message was that the BJP must come out of its ‘political untouchable status, if it was serious about forming government at the centre. ‘The next mid term election was held in 1998, The 1998 Parliamentary election was the turning point in India's electoral politics, which not only characterizes the beginning of a perfect coalition era but also brought the Hindu nationalist and the allegedlyIntroduction to Political Processes in India 1.16 communal forces like the BJP into power. The ascendancy of the freon a ~ to iti i history, related to the elections of . The 1989 political power has its own history, | from the earlier trend of Congress Parliamentary elections marked a significant break from hp dominance and reflected a fragmentation of the party system at : The politics by this time ie. late eighties and early nineties had been reconfigured with three major issues of ‘Mandir’, ‘Mandal’ and 'Market’, In the early years after Independence, Congress used patronage network to build vote banks among low castes and minorities to win electoral majorities. This rainbow coalition dampened class conflict, thus politicizing other social identities. Indeed, the Congress systematically tried to bury the class issue and its brand of accommodation was a major obstacle to the cross-caste mobilization of the poor and disadvantaged. It pre-empted the emergence of radical movements by making religion, caste clusters or tribal groups the primary identity through which economic discontent was articulated. Therefore, it was not surprising that during Rajiv Gandhi's tenure from 1984-89 the Congress took refuge into a different kind of vote bank politics while trying to cash on important social cleavages like that of religion and caste by replacing the class issues of earlier Congress systems. The Congress compromised with both Muslim and Hindu fundamentalist forces in late eighties by succumbing to the demands of Muslim fundamentalism in the Shah Bano case (1986) and then tried to balance it with opening the doors of Babri Masjid while permitting Shilan Puja within the premises of the historic mosque. In this Way, a mainstream national party with its secular credentials actually legitimized the identity politics in India. Thus, it contributed in reshaping the political language and to some extent changing the political culture of the largest democracy of the world. Though Congress had made compromises with communalism on several occasions, generally, it was not regarded as a communal party, Though Congress retained vote plurality in all elections between 1989 and 1998 and also 1999 it failed to get a seat majority , winning fewer seats than the BJP in 1996, 1998 and 1999. The rise of the BJP was spectacular from 1989 as we shall see later. To get a sense of this dramatic rise the BJP and its earlier avtar the Bhartiya Jan Sangh's track record will be instructive to note here. Prior to 1989, the BIP/BIS had never secured more than 10 percent ofthe votes or 35 seats nationally, except in 1977 When as a member of the Janata party coalition , the BJS faction won 99 out of the ce ace Fo te, 98 ete mostly in de-facto alliance with Janata Dal Thee ere ties ren mtested on 226 seats performance: (a) seat adjustment with the Janata Del ene sons for this spectacular dq ‘a Dal in most f the seats BJP contested in North and West India and (b) sizeable a swing in favor uur of the BJP a i Concentration of this increase in votes, TP gel (2) regonal ‘There was another significant development after the 1980 Party system, The coalition politics gained a new trend: ‘o Government from outside without formally joining it, Without assuming any responsibility, Article 75 @B)o elections affecting the Parties’ tended to lend support thus. ostensibly sharing power nly says that the Council of= Political Parties and Party System Ministers shall be collectively responsible to the House of the People. The manner in which this condition is met from coalition partners or from those outside it, is of no constitutional significance. However, the experience of government formation with outside support both at the national and state level has invariably created instability in Indian politics. A corollary to these developments has been the emergence of an environment of ‘blackmail’ within the party alliances, where not only a minority government or an alliance of parties felt insecure to implement its minimum election program or polices but also faced considerable hindrances in taking hard executive or routine administrative decisions in matters of appointments to council of ministers or representing a particular interest, constituency or any party's viewpoint in any policy move Another distinctive feature of 1989-98 phase is the emergence of caste and religious identities (i.e. symbolically Mandal’ and Mandir’) as deciding factors in India's electoral _ politics . In these circumstances, the electoral success of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was rather astonishing in terms of Lok Sabha seats won by that party: Two seats in 1984 to 86 seats in 1989, 121 seats in 1991, 161 seats in 1996, 181 seats and 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 respectively. The 'Mandir' issue became instrumental behind the rise of BJP apart from upper caste assertion and consolidation behind BJPs anti Mandal mobilization. The BJP also gained from building up calculated electoral alliances with the regional parties in several states which enabled the BJP to mobilize a section of OBC, Dalit and Tribal votes as it expanded in non-traditional states i.e. beyond the North-Indian Hindi heartland and western states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa. Generally, the political theorists have described BJP as a ‘party of the elites’ constituting the upper castes and upper and middle-classes but by late nineties it tried to grab the votes of a significant section of disadvantaged groups apart from its core constituencies. The fourth Phase (1998- 2014) is a period of stable ‘Coalition ', and reflects the reconfiguration of the fragmented party system in in terms of bi-polar mutli party system.. In 1998, the BJP changed its strategy of fighting alone and entered into alliances with a number of state based and regional parties., which were earlier part of the United Front. This strategy helped the BJP to improve its own score and also that of the alliance, The BJP won about 25 percent of the votes and its allies got another 11 percent giving the alliance 37 percent votes.IIe: Introduction to Political Processes in India Table 1.8. Party Position in 1998 elections Parties Seats Bhartiya Janata Party 182 Indian National Congress 141 cPLM) 32 Samajwadi Party 20 Anna Dravida Munnetra kazgam 18 Independent 06 Others 144 Source: Election Commission Data ‘The contest in this phase was mainly between two major pre-poll alliances. One Was Ted by BIP and consisted of Samata Party, Harayana Vikas Party, Lok Shakti, Shiv Sena, Biju Janata Dal, Akali Dal, AIADMK, MDMK, Janata Party, PMK, Tamil Nadu Rajiv Congress, Loktantrik Congress, Jantantrik BSP, Janata Party (Rajaram), Trinamul Congress etc, The other alliance was led by the Congress Party and was Composed of RID, Samajavadi Party, Republican Party of India, BSP, TUTS, TNP, the country's political scene. On the basis of the voting pattern, it could be said that the voters in almost every State hinted that they did not want their Preferences to be divided only between the two major poles of alliances, ‘They identified the two major Contenders and confined their preferences to this cither-or option. Both BJP and Congress could do well only in those States where they had struck alliance with some Parties. This was an interesting phenomenon which was likely to continue and usher in the country an era of polarization between two Parties/alliances, ‘The defeat of the BJP led alliance government by a single vote in the Lok i Sabha May 1999 when the AIADMK suddenly withdrew Support paved the way for ns 13th ion was held in October after the as "Operation Vijay". The vi sentiments of the electorate j sIPieanDe we Seat strength rose to 305, Cong N won only 114 seats and its ress on the other hand alliance got only 134 seats,sical Parties and Party System Pol Lig The two BJP led coalitions that ruled from 1998 to 1999 and from 1999 to 2004 were based on spatial compatibility and ideological comprises. In south and East B3P and regional parties could come together easily whereas Congress could not built such alliance with regional parties as Congress was their principal opponent . Secondly several of the secular parties which were UF components moved towards the BJP, ignoring its past communal track record after BJP willingly dropped the three crucial issues in the Hindu Nationalist Plank-UCC , Article 370 and Ram Mandir, ‘The 1999 election also saw massive shifts among several parties to change their camps and characterized the ultimate fragmentation and dissolution of the "Third Front. The verdict of the 1999 election slowly gave rise to two major political camps namely the NDA and the Anti-NDA forces comprising of myriad political parties that were not united during election but were to evolve as a united opposition in due course of time. Both 1998 and 1999 elections also witnessed the rise of a new social block namely the ‘urban middle class' rallying behind the BJP led NDA with the aspiration of wallowing into the benefits of proconsumerist economic reforms . Table 1.9. Electoral performance of coalitions in 1999 elections BJP+ Seats | INC+ ‘Seats BIP 182__| INC 112 BID 10 | AIADMK mn DMK 12 | KECM aT HVC 01 | MUL 02 INLD 05 =| RID 07 ID) 20 | RLD 20 LOKTANTRIK o1 | TOTAL 134 MDMK 01 | OTHERS MscP o1 | SP 26 NC 04 | BSP 14 PMK 05 | CPL 4 SAD 02 | CPI(M) 32 SHIV SENA 15 | FBL 02 TRINAMOOL 08 KEC ol TDP 29 | RSP 03 IND 03 | INDEPENDENT & OTHERS 18 TOTAL 303 Source: Election Commission of India dataIntroduction to Political Processes in yg Ha 1.20 everal internal problems within its my, Post- mee Pian riots in 2002 and Jayalalitha's excesses in Tamil Nadu an MK of sition ticularly targeting M. Karunanidhi, upset important coajg the DMK FBP. ‘The fnternal feud within the NDA resulted into the exit of seven para and state-based leaders from the BJP-led apes He ah example, Duk ‘Trinamool Congress and Lokjanshakti Party teft NDA and fought as Congress allies, 2004 elections. Omprakash Chautala led INLD also moved out and fought independen iy in 2004. In 2004, BJP-led United Progressive Allaiance ( A, encountered cons NDA lost the election to a newly formed Congress led Coalton, UPA). For this election Congress decided to forge a pre. lection alliance with other secular parties . This was a major change in the Congres *s earlier stance on coalition. The Congress led UPA , consisting of 19 parties, secured 36 percent votes and 222 seats. The NDA won only 186 seats though in terms of Votes it had nearly as much as the the UPA. The UPA received external support ofthe left parties , who had 61 seats and with Left support UPA got parliamentary majority and formed the government. ; The 2004 parliamentary election is said to be a silent upheaval. It was like any other normal election without a national crisis at play, no major populist mobilization and no fracturing identity politics, but it eventually turned out to be a wave election. It turned out to be a watershed election that completely surprised and nullified the popular perception generated by the media and pollsters that BJP will again come back to power. In the hindsight, it seems that the BJP’s, 'India-shining' and ‘Feel Good’ campaign orchestrated by the propaganda managers of BJP, did not resonate with common people. Interestingly, BJP was also routed in its traditional strongholds of urban centres. Congress emerged as the single largest party with 145 seats in this election. On the other hand, the NDA got only 189 seats with BJP lowering its tally from 182 seats in 1999 to 138 seats in 2004-a loss of 44 seats for BJP and 89 seats for NDA. BY contrast, the Congress and its allies together got 222 seats, a gain of 69 seats from 1999 for the alliance and a gain of 31 seats for the Congress. In this election, as mentioned above, the Congress had formed a 19-party grand alliance while the NDA suffered from ally secieaon It had only 7 ‘3-panry aun down from 24 in 1999. After the elections, the Left supported the Congress on the pat Conicn Minimum Programme (CMP) in order to keep the communal , aan Although it had a direct fight with Congress in Kerala, West eae ant Pre: he left parties had made tactical and strategic alliances with Cangreng and idhra Pradesh and the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Allianc® Pa ‘adu where the Congress was also a component of DPA. in Tes 2004, election also witnessed the emergence of the Left as an important fore? Politics. The Left reached its highest ever tally of 61 seats in this electio™ The Congress led UPA. ; 8.01% voce ra UPA. NDA and the Left got 36.53% votes, 35.88% votes and"politcal Parties and Party System 121 Table 1.10. Party Position in the 2004 elections | uPA | SEATS NDA SEATS | LEFT | SEATS OTHERS SEATS inc 145 | BIP 138 | CPM) | 43.‘ | BSP 19 DMK 16 | DU) 08 CPL 10 | sP 36 [nce oo [arte 02 RSP 03 | TDP 05 RID 21__| SAD 08 AIFB 03 | ID(S) 03 LP o4 | SHIVSENA| 12 RLD 03 TRS 05 BID a AGP 02 PMK 06 «| NPF o1 NC 02 IMM os_| MNF o1 KERALACONGRESS | _01 MDMK | 04 SIKKIM oO DEMOCRATIC FRONT TUML ol AIMIM o1 RPI o1 NATIONAL oa LOKTANTRIK PARTY PDP o1 OTHERS 03 In 2009 the fifteenth general elections of India were held. Once again the Congress led UPA Defeated the depleted NDA. UPA's victory was much more emphatic than the past, Congress won 206 seats on its own and 263 with its pre-electoral allies. Congress however had lost the Left , on the nuclear issue. The Congress led UPA government had five other parties in the government- AITC, DMK, NC and Muslim League . The NDA suffered najor partial seat adjustment partner in Jharkhand , Andhra Pradesh, and TamilNadu. Congress had also lost JD, LIP,TRS, PMK, MDMK and PDP. But it “had added AllIndia Trinamool ally- depletion with the loss of TDP, BJD and the split in _the Shiv sena, But it had added the AGP, RS and RLD.1.22 Introduction to Political Processes in Indig Table 1.11. Party Position in the 2009 elections UPA SEATS] NDA | SEAT | LEFT | SEATS | OTHERS ~ | seats s INC 206 BIP 16 | cpu) | 16 _| BSP 2 DMK 18 ID) 20 | cer 04 | sp 3 NCP 09 RLD os | rsp | 02 | TOP 06 NATIONAL | 03 SAD o | are | 02 | sD) 3 CONF. AITC 19 _[suivsena | | rsp | 2 | BD 4 IMM 02 ‘TRS 02 AIADMK 09 TUML oe AGP o1 MDMK OL a o1 JVM) o1 vCK o1 SIKKIM 01 DEMOCRATIC FRONT BODOLAND | Ot RD 7 PEOPLE'S FRONT [xeeara [on = = CONGRESS (MAND) INDEPENDEN | 13, \ T & OTHERS Source: CSDS Data tables ‘The last decade of the 20th century saw a sharp rise in political mobilization on the basis of social cleavages based on ascriptive identities, in particular of religion and caste. Casteism, communalism and personality domination have been the main planks around which the fragmentation of political parties has| taken place, which kas resulted in more caste and class-based political violence in the society. Political parties have invariably exploited these sentiments for gaining flectoral support and political mobilisation of the voters, In the 2014 General Elections the BJP recorded ijts best ever performance in Lok Sabha polls (282 seats). It became the only party to get a comfortable majority since 1984 (30 years). In the four State Assembly Pols which followed, BJP formed Government in three states. Today, BJP-led NDA hlas Governments in 12 States - 8 BJP CMs and 4 CM of allies (best ever tally since formation of BJP). It is being said that in the future one can see the revival of the eral of one party dominant system.Political Parties and Party System Table 1.12, Party Position in the 2014 elections States. BHARTIYA JANTA PARTY CPI 282 1.23 CPIM) oO 09 CONGRESS (1) NCP AAM AADMI PARTY 06 04, AIADMK 37 ALL INDIA NR CONG. Or ALL INDIA TRINAMOOL CONG - 34 ALL INDIA UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT 03. BIJU JANTA DAL 20 INDIAN NATIONAL LOK DAL 02 INDIAN UNION MUSLIM LEAGUE, 02, JAMMU & KASHMIR PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC PARTY 03, JANATA DAL ( UNITED) 02 JANATA DAL ( SECULAR) 02 JHARKHAND MUKTI MORCHA 02 KERALA CONGRESS (M) ol LOK JANSHAKTI PARTY 06 NAGA PEOPLE’S FRONT o1 PATTALI MAKKAL KATCHI OL RASHTRIYA JANATA DAL oF REVOLUTIONARY SOCIALIST PARTY OL SAMAJWADI PARTY 05 SIROMANI AKALI DAL 04 SHIV SENA 18 SIKKIM DEMOCRATIC FRONT TELANGANA RASHTRA SAMITI At TELUGU DESHAM PARTY 16 ALL INDIA MAJLIS-E-ITTEHADUL MUSLIMEEN Ol APNA DAL 02 RASHTRIYA LOK SAMTA PARTY. 03 SWABHIMAN PAKSHA Ol YUVAJANA SRAMIKA RYTHU CONGRESS PARTY ac) INDEPENDENT 03 Source: Election Commission Data1A Introduction to Political Processes in Indig 1.5 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS AND THE RISE OF BJP AS DOMINANT PARTY The results of the 2014 general elections show that we are at a watershed moment in the electoral history of the country. The era of regional parties, having significant influence on national politics, seem to be over. It is after three decades that the country today has a majority government. The Congress, on the other hand, recorded its worst performance in Lok Sabha polls (44 seats). Rudderless leadership and huge anti-incumbency against the UPA Government cost Congress dearly. The party is in deep mess. In contrast, the BJP recorded its best performance in Lok Sabha polls (282 seats). It became the only party to get a comfortable majority since 1984 (30 years). In the 5 State Assembly polls which followed, BJP has formed Government in 3 States. In the 4th State, J&K, the BJP has made good inroads in the State and has formed a coalition government with the People's Democratic Party (PDP). In Delhi Assembly polls, it however, lost the elections badly to a newly formed AAP party. Today, BJP-led NDA has Governments in 11 States - 8 BJP CMs and 3 CM of allies (best ever tally since formation of BIP).The BJP has become today the principal party in India, a position held by Congress prior to 1989. As a result, the politics of opposition parties (parties not in NDA) is now anti-BJP and not anti-Congress. This is a paradigm shift in Indian politics. This is being increasingly seen in the behaviour of regional parties like Trinamool and in the efforts of the erstwhile Janata Parivar to unite. The election results in Bihar assembly elections in Oct-Nov 2015 , which brought together arch rivals Lallu Yadav RID and Nitish led Janta Dal(u) in a coalition with the Congress to trounce the BJP-led NDA suggests that opposition parties are closing ranks as anti-BJP sentiments is on the upswing. NOTES Ajay K. Mehra, Khanna D.D.(etl), Political Parties and Party System, Sage Publications, New Delhi, 63 (2003) Ajay K. Mehra, [Link]., p-71 ae Balveer Arora, 'Regional Aspirations and National Cohesion: Federal Coalition in 1998 Lok Sabha Elections’, West Bengal Political Science Review, Calcutts, 1 69-70 (1998) [Link], BJP led Government and Elections 1999 (Delhi: Shipra Publications 2000) p.148 [Link], BJP led Government and Elections 1999 (Delhi: Shipra Publications, 2000) p.148 ; E, Sridharan, ‘Electoral Coalitions in 2004 General Elections: Theory and Evidence in EPW, Dec.18, 2004, p.5419