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PROBABILITY
, Bis the event either A or B 1
Anion 8 oF both and is also denoted as (A+B) and is read a5
B is the event both A
‘id A ysection B. and B and is also denoted as AB and is real as ‘A
3
" }
jy aor Ais the event ‘Not A
“ (a-B)is the event 'A but not B’.
\ For mutually exclusive events we have A B = i.e. null set.
addition Theorem:
fra and B are any two events then
p (AUB) = P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(ANB)
eg. Ptking or Heart Card) = P(king) + P(Heart) ~ (king and Heart)
43 1 6 4
= 45 - ==
5252 52 52 13
IfAand B are mutually exclusive then P (AUB) = P(A) + P().
2 as here P (ANB) = 0.
3
+ ANB EO
eg. P (King or Queen) = P (King)+P (Queen) =
5.
similarly, for three events A, B and C we have,
P (AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)- P(ANB) ~ P(BNO) ~ P(A) + P(ANBMO)
Now, if Ar, Az, As-An are mutually exclusive events then,
P(ALU A2UAs.~ UAn) = P (Ax) + P (Ag) + ont P (An)
Thus, in general “or” implies addition of probabilities for mutually exclusive events.
illustration 1: A bag contains 30 balls numbered from 1 to 30. One ball is drawn at
random. Find the probability that the number of the ball drawn will be (i) a multiple of Sor7
{i}a multiple of 4 or 6 and (i) even number or a multiple of 5.
Solution: Total number of possible outcomes is n = 30
() Let A- Event that the ball drawn has a number which is a multiple of 5.
Let B- Event that the ball drawn has a number which is a multiple of 7.
:. No. of favourable outcomes to event A which are {5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30} ism=6
‘ . 6
“: Probability that the number is a multiple of 5 = P(A)= eee
a
Similarly, Probability that the number is a multiple of 7, which are {7, 14, 21, 28} is
4
P@)=—
30
:. Probability that the number is a ‘multiple of 5 or 7°
events (since no number is common to them) is,
6 4 101
PA i. = P(A) +P (B) = —+—=— =>
(Aor B) ie. P (AUB) = P(A) #P(B)= 20+ 39°3
"or" = = Addition for mutually exclusive events.
which are mutually exclusive
103DECISION sctrwces On
(i) Probability thet the number is a muftiple of 4 ke 4 8 12, 16 20 34 2
PO * 35
Probability that the number is a multiple of 6 Le (6, 12, 18, 24, 30) is say pry) _
Now, these are not mutually exclusive events as the numbers 12 and 24 ara .,,
to both these events.
Probability that the number is a multiple of 4 as well as 6 is P(C mp) _ 2
30 rq
hence,
P (Cor Die P(CUD) = P(C)+P(D)-P(CAD)
as C and D are not mutually exe)
Pope
= 30 * 30730" 30°3
(ili) Similarly, the probability that the number is even or a multiple of 5
= Pleven) + P(multiple of 5) - P (even and Multiple
TG HG uaa B eS
= 30 307 30 ~ 30
2. Theorem on Compound Probability:
For dependent events A and B, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence is
P (Aand B) = P (ANB) = P (A) x P (BJA) = P (B) x P (A/8)
where, P (B|A) called as the conditional probability, implies the probability of occurrence
of event B given that the event A has already occurred.
Eg. If one card is drawn from a pack and then the second is drawn without replacing the
first, the probability of the second draw is dependent on the first draw.
Now, if A and B are independent events, then
P (BJA) = P (B) or P (AJB) = P (A) so that
P (A and B) = P (ANB) = P (A) x P (B) ... Multiplication Theorem
Similarly, for three events A, B, and C
P (AMBAC) = P(A): P (BJA) - P (C|ANB)
and if AB and C are independent then
P (ANBrC) = P (A). P (B). P (C)
of 5)
(i) For independent events Ay, Az, ... Ay we have
P(Happening of at least one of the events Ay, Ap, An)
= 1 ~ P(Happening of none of the events Ay, Ap, ..
(iil) Also from the above formulae we have,
P(AMB)
P(BIA) = aE and P(A|B) a
10.4y
gcrENcES, aa
oe aga
tion 2: Find the probability of q
siuste™ rawing a queen
ds in two consecutive dr:
ak of car Hi aws when the cards dra
pe ag replace
Hind [
vet jution: Let A ~ event that the first card drawn is a queen
PROBABILITY.
and a king in that order from
win are (i) not being replaced (i)
Pay = 3
: if the card is not replaced, i
fy Now _Teplaced, there will be 51 cards in the pack and hence, the
second event B of drawing a king from this pack is dependent a the first.
Hence, probability of drawing a king from the remaining pack of 51 cards is
4
PIA) = =
Ce 51
Hence, Probability of drawing a queen followed by a king is
|. P(A and B) Le, P(ANB) = P(A) x P(BIA) = 4 x4
(ip If the card is replaced back, the event B of drawing of a king is independent of the
first event, as there would be 52 cards again.
4
Hence, P®) ==
=, P(Aand B) ie.
oie
2 * 52
+: "and" = multiplication for independent events
P(AnB) = P(A) xP (8)
Bayes’ Theorem:
If Ay Az = Ak. An are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events and B is any
other event that occurs in conjunction with events Ay, Az, ~ An
P(A, P(BIA,
Then, P(deB) = PAD PE —
LZ P(A) x PIBIAD
k=l
Hence, for three such events Ay, Az, As.
P(Ay) x P(BIA: P(Ay) P(BIA,
PtAs|B) = 3 = P(A P(BIAD + P(A2) P(BIA:) + PCAs) PUBIAs)
Z PAD x P(BIAD
k=1
Tlustration 3, A factory has two machines A and B, A producing 300 units and B
producing 700 units, forming the total output. 5% of the items produced on A are defective
and only 1% produced by B are defective. If a defective item is drawn at random, what is the
probability that it is produced by machine A? Also, find the probability that an item drawn
fandomly from the output is defective.
105PROBLY
that the item is produced on machine a,
produced on machine p,
DECISION SCIENCES
A, - The event _—
A; - The event that the item is
item is defective.
D - Theitemis defe ai
; item is produced on machine A given th,
. ability that the item is P' D “l
@ hpi 7 a) Here 7 and Az are mutually equa (s ony one of
Can happen at a time) and collectively exhaustive (2s thse hn pat
events which form the total output). Also, event D can happ junclon ee
both Ay and Az
By Bayes’ Theorem
Aj
(A) x POI) —__P(Ay) P(DJAy)_—__—
PtAo) => Ales = Bip POIAD + P(A2) P(DIAz)
= P(A) x P(BJAD
k=1
Solution: Let
and
Now, Total output = 300 + 700 = 1000
300 700
=—=0. P(A,) =——=0.7
POA) = T5703 and PAL) =F65
Also, since A produces 5% defective items
5
P(DJAY) = Z99 = 0.05
Similarly, P (D/Az) = 0.01
(0.3) (0.05) 0.015
(03)(0.05)+(0.7)(0.01) 0.015 + 0.007
= 0.682
P (A\|D) =
0.007
Similarly, P(A,/D) =——= 0.318
0.022
(ii) Now, the probability that the item drawn randomly from the total output is defective
is
P(D) = Pi(item is produced on A and is defective) or (item is produced on B and
is defective)]
= P(A,nD) + P (Az)
ss (AyD) and (AgnD) are mutually exclusive
P (Ax) P (DJAx) + P (Az) P (DIA)
uv Events D & Ay Ay are dependent
(Note that this is the denominator term in Bayes’ Theroem)
P(D) = (0.3) (0.05) + (0.7) (0.01)
= 0.015 + 0.007 = 0.022
10.6‘om a well shuffled pack. Find the probability
give . mers ae
problem 1: A card is drawn at random fr
1 (pitis not a spade (i) it is a face cara,
solution: Total number of possible outcomes, n = 52
()_ Let A- Event that a non-spade card is selected,
Now, there are (53 ~ 13) = 39 non-spade cards
., Favourable outcomes for A are m = 39
thal
(i) Let B - Event that the card is a face (King, Queen or Jack) card
:. Favourable outcomes, m= 3 x4 = 12
Problem 2: A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probabili i i
rine (i) multiple of 3 (ii) divisible by 3 or 4. ee een et
Solution: The sample space i.e. (all possible outcomes) consists of
S = (1,1), 2),.. (1, 6, (2 2), (2, 2). (2, 6), 3, 1)... (6, 9)
ie. n = Total possible outcomes = 6? = 36
() A~ Event that the sum is more than 9
The favourable outcomes where the sum is more than 9
ile. The sum is 10 OR 11 OR 12 are ((4, 6), (5, 5), (6,4), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, Oh ie.
m = No. of favourable outcomes = 6
2 Pae =
a
(i) B - Event that the sum is a multiple of 3
The outcomes where the sum is a multiple of 3 are
{(2, 2), (1, 5), (2, 2, (2, 4), (3, 3), 3, 6), (4, 2), (4, 5), 5, 2, (5: 4), (6, 3), (6, 6))
iem=12
2 P@)= Maat
n 36 3
(ii) C - Event that the sum is a multiple of 4
. Favourable outcomes are ((1, 3), (2, 2), (2, 6), 3 1), 3, 5), 4,4), (5, 3), (6, 2), (6, 8)
10.9ie
LOLCISION SCHNCES ORI,
OF these outcomes, ((6 6)) Is common to events Band C
Pisuny isa multiple of 3 and 4)
= PROD = 4
Probability that the sum is divisible by 3 of 4 Le. (C189 multiple of 3 of 4 js
P(BUO » P(A) + PO) = (BNC)
ett bass ttt
34% 12 36 12 36
Problem 3: What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will hag
53 Mondays?
Solution: A leap year has 366 days. Now,
Thus, there are 52 full weeks containing 52 Mondays. Now, the remaining (366 ~ 364 = »
days could be Sun-Mon, Mon.-Tue, Tue-Wed, ... etc. ie.7 possible combinations. Out of
these, only 2 combinations will have a Monday in them. Hence, the probability that there wil
52 weeks cover (52 x 7) = 364 days.
be a 53" Monday =:
2
ie. The probability that the leap year will have 53 Mondays = —
Problem 4: The daily production (in number of units) for a week in a factory is 56, 59, 62,
57, 53, 60, 66 units. If it is checked at random on a day, what is the probability that it will be
less than the average?
Solution: Number of days considered, n= 7
Let, x - The daily production
Sx _ 564594 62+57+53+60+66 413 _
Ze 7 a
Let A - Event that the production is less than the average on a day i.e. (56, 57, 53}
Average production =
m=3
P(A) =
se
Problem 5: Two friends A and B apply for two vacancies at the same post. The
probabilities of their selection are 1/4 and 1/5 respectively. What is the chance that (i) One of
them will be selected, (i) Both will be selected, (ii) None will be selected, (iv) At least one will
be selected.
10.10
piteemiceeusmctneb, 4y
ces.
oy SCIENCES PROBABILITY.
os —
ation: Let A> Event that A is Selected, 8 - Event th
pa) = WA and PB) = 1/5
sol at Bis selected
ot selected) =P(A) = 1- pay =] 22 5
ee POA) = 1-3 = 4 and p(B) = 1 P(B) =
te only one t ae
0 Ne selected i. (A is selected and B is not) or (B is selected and A is
not) then Required probability
eles . _. mutually exclusive events
= P(A)-P(B)+P(B). P(A) independent events
OR Se
(i) If both are selected, then
Required probability
= P(ANB)
eae independent events
ry) t
- Ges
(i) P(None of them is selected) = 1 — P( at least one is selected)
= 1-P(oneis selected or both are selected)
(Z ‘| 8 ids
= 1-|—+— ]J=l-—= —=-
20 20] 20 2 5
. ee (3\(4)\ 2
Alternately, P(none is selected) i.e. (ANB) = P(A) PB) =|4)\5)= 5
(iv) P(At least one will be selected)
= P (one is selected or both are selected)
= P (one selected) + P(both are selected)
Problem 6: Probability that a man will be alive 25 years hence is 0.3 and the probability
that his wife will be alive 25 years hence is 0.4. Find the probability that 25 years hence
@ both will be alive, (ji) only the man will be alive, (i) only the woman will be alive, (iv) at
least one of them will be alive.
10.11DECISION SCIENCES
Solution: Let A ~ The man will be alive 25 years hence, B = His wife will be alive 25 yey
hence, ars
We have P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4
P(man will not be alive) = P(A)=1-P(A)=1-0.3=0.7
Similarly, P(B) = 1-04 = 06
()_ Probability that, both man and his wife will be alive, is
~ P(ANB) = P(A) x P(B) as events are independengl
= (0.3) (0.4) = 0.12
(ii) Probability that only the man will be alive i.e. the man will be alive and his wife Not,
ie. P(ANB) = P(A) - P(B) = (0.3) (0.6) = 0.18
(ii) Similarly, Probability that only the woman will be alive is
P(AnB) = P(A) - P(B) = (0.7) (0.4) = 0.28
(iv) Probability that at least one of them is alive i.e. Probability that either man or woman
is alive
i.e, P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) - P(ANB) = (0.3) + (0.4) - (0.12) = 0.58
Alternately, Probability that at least one of them is alive
= 1~Probability that none of them is alive.
=_1-(AnB) = 1~ PA) - P®) = 1- (0.7) (0.6) = 1- 0.42 = 0.58
Problem 7: 12% of the items produced on a machine are defective. The quality inspector
makes incorrect classification of the items 10% of the time during its testing further. oi
600 items are supplied, how many of them are expected to be defectives?
Solution: Let D - Item produced is defective and I - Classification is incorrect.
P(D) = 0.12
P(B)=1-0.12=0.88 and
P=01 . P(T)=1-01=09
P (Item is classified as good for supply)
= P [{ft is non-defective and correctly classified) or (it is defective and incorrectly
classified)} 4
= P(Dnl) + P(On}) .. Mutually Exclusive Events
= P(D) P(I) + P(D) P® .-- Independent events
(0.88) (0.9) + (0.12) (0.1) = 0.792 + 0.012 = 0.804
Out of these, probability of defective items = P(Dnl) = P(D) P(1) = (0.12) (0.1) = 0.012
10.12SCIENCES,
ecsion PROBABILITY
This implies that if 1 items is produced, (0.804)
agofectives. ) of it will be supplied and 0.012 of it will be
;. Probability that the item supplied is defective = 9-012
; ; 0.804 .
Thus, fone item is supplied (0.015) of itis defective
.. 1600 items are supplied, No. of defective items =
similarly, percentage defective items supplied
Problem 8:
(0.015) (600) = 9.
= (0.015) (100) = 15%.
A can hit a target 1 out of 4 times. B can hit the target 2 out of 3 times and
C can hit the target 3 out of 4 times. Find the Probability that, (i) The target is hit, (ii) At least
two hit the target
Solution: We have, P(A) = + , P(g) <2 pQ=3
3 4
P(A not hitting the target) i.e. P(A)
Similarly, P(B)=1-
(i) -. Probability that the target is hit i.e. Probability that at least one hits the target
= 1-P(No one hits the target)
= 1- Probability that (A does not hit and B does not hit and C does not hit)
= 1-P(ANBAG)
= 1-P(A). P(B).P(C) [Link] events
“C0
(i) If at least two hit the target ie. either two or all hit the target i.e. events
(An890 oF (ANBAO or (ANBOC) oF (ANBAC) take place.
<. Required Probability
= P(ARBAQ + P(ANBAQ) + P(ANBAO) + P(ANBOC) ... mutually exclusively events
-(3)(2)(3) (2)(2)(2}-()8) 2).(\2)(2) _.. independent events
"4 VEGI BAG GAMA) GBA.
3.1 11
10.13DECISION SCIENCES a ————$+$_ tan
Problem 9: In a certain examination three papers were administered and following ,,
the results 30% 20%, and 25% of the candidates failed in papers 1. 2. and 3 ‘Spectivafal
10% failed in both papers 1 and 2, 8% failed in papers 2 and 3 and 6% failed in paper, Me
3. 2% failed in all papers. If a candidate is selected at random find
(The probability that he has failed in either of the three papers
(ii) Probability that the candidate has passed in all 3 papers
Solution: Let A - Event that candidate fails in paper 1. B - Event that candidate fai,
Paper 2 C - Event that candidate fails in paper 3.
We have, P (A) = 0.30, P (B) = 0.20, P (C) = 0.25 and
P(ANB) = 0.1, PBAC) = 0.08, PIANC) = 0.06 and PIANBN) = 0.02
Probability that the candidate has failed in either of the three papers
= P(ALBUQ)
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) ~ PAMB) ~ P(BAC) - PIANC) + PANE)
= 0.30 + 0.20 + 0.25 - 0.1 - 0.08 - 0.06 + 0.02
= 053
(ii) Probability that the candidate passes in all papers = 1 ~ Probability that he fails iq
either of the three papers
ie. P(AMBAO) = 1 - P(AUBUC) = 1- 0.53 = 0.47
Problem 10: Four cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find tha
probability that: ‘
(i) They are a king, a queen, a jack, and an ace.
(ii) Two are kings and two are jacks
(iil) All are clubs
(iv) All are red or all are blacks.
Solution: Four cards can be drawn from a well shuffled pack in n = °C, number of ways.
(One king can be drawn from 4 kings in‘c, number of ways. Similarly a queen, a jack
and an ace each can be drawn in “Cc, number of ways. Since all must be drawn
simultaneously, the total number of favourable cases will be “Cc, x *C,x ‘c, x ‘c,.
i
«. Required Probability = <1 Si" Svs © _ Sxtxdnd _
eq ity %, %o, "Be,
(ii) Here number of favourable cases will be *C,x*C,
4x3 4x3
. on 36
-. Required Probabili 1x2_1x2
ac. ac,
10.14PROBABILITY.
umber of favourable case
y Here"
a <
__ required Probability = +
wares cards (Hearts and Diamonds) can be drawn in Cc, ways. Similarly, black cards
in
can be drawn in C, ways. Also, there are no common cards. We have t find
obabilty of drawing all red or all black cards, which are mutually exclusive events.
. favourable cases = co, + 0,
Beas %ey 2x%e, 2% ax2x3x4
c
Required probability = —“7-—“* =
*Cy
= 2X26X25x23 __ 52x 25x23
BC, 52x51 x50x49
1x2x3x4
= S2x25x23x 2x34
= 52xs1x50x49 = Ott
m 11: An urn contains 8 white and 3 red balls. If two balls are drawn at random,
proble i
seis the chance that, () both are white, (i) both are red, (ii) one is of each colour, (iv) both
gered or both are white.
Solution: There are in all 8+3 = 11 balls in the urn. Out of these 2 balls can be drawn in
10
getias EAP number of ways, « Exhaustive numberof cases = n= 55
. 8x7
{), Two balls from 8 white balls can be drawn in "C2 = Tp = 28 number of ways.
|. No, of favourable outcomes = 28.
.. Required probability =
8x
(i) Two red balls can be drawn from 3 balls in 3a = Tg = 3 number of ways.
a
z. Required probability = —
quired pI ty =
m 8 balls in ®C, = 8 number of ways. Also one red
=3 number of ways. As, this must happen
8x3=24
as the events are independent.
(i) One white ball can be drawn fro
ball is drawn from 3 balls in°C,
simultaneously, total number of favourable cases =
24
55
.. Required probability
10.15PORE
DECISION SCIENCES
1 of favourable cases wh,
(iv) Since the events are mutually exclusive, the numbe! where both
5 = 31
are red or both are white = °Cz + °C = 28 +3
31
- Required probability =
OR (Red or White) = P (Red) + P (White)
Sc, 7c, _ 28,3 1
= 45 755 55 55 55
Problem 12: If 3 out of 20 tubes in a lot are defective and if 4 of ther are random
nly one of the defective tubes wi ball
chosen for inspection, then what is the probability that
selected.
Solution: 4 tubes can be selected from a lot of 20 tubes in
n=*c, 20! 20! _ 20x19x18x17 oe
0-4)! 41161) Lx2x3x4
The sample of 4 tubes should have only one defective tube. Hence, there should be
1 defective tube (out of 3) and 3 non defective tubes (out of remaining 172) simultaneously,
Now one tube can be selected from 3 defective tubes in °C, = 3 ways and 3 tubes can be
ary _1TxL6xI5
selected from 17 non-defective tubes in ""C3=——_> 5 ways
No. of ways in which one defective and 3 non defective tubes are selected = FE x"c,
17x16x15
M7 x:
: 2 x7C,_ bax3
Required probability = —2>.— = 3ox49x18xi7
pees cox beLEnla)
1x2x3x4
2x3x4 8
20x19x18x17 19
Problem 13: A committee of four has to be formed from among 3 economists,
4 engineers, 2 statisticians and 1 doctor.
(i) What is the probability that each of four professions is represented in the committee?
421
(i) What is the probability that the committee consists of the doctor and at least one
economist?
Solution: There are 3 + 4 + 2 + 1 = 10 members in all.
a ; 10x9x8x7
=
A committee of 4 can be formed in total of n = *°C, 1x2x3x4 number of ways.
10.16y
conc
oN. pacasensrt
conomist can be included
ne C0" ded from 3 in tc
2 rumbser of wars. Seviarty
f
‘or, 1 statistician and 1 doc
1 engine’ Ind 1 doctor can be included in'C,.?Cend 'C, number of
ways respec tively, This must happen simuttaneoust i
wheats tne cotal number of favourable cases Matty and at these are independent
2 24,
Cyr Cyn Cx eye dx 4x 2rl
pequired probability « 4 . 4
‘ommittee must have one doc
ie we one doctor and at least one economist. Hence. the
composition could be: [1 doctor and 1 economist and 2 others (from 4 + 2= 6)1 OF
[i doctor and 2 economists and 1 other] or (1 doctor and 3 economists] :
these are mutually exclusive cases
epee yet
Wer
G
Requited probability =
3x
1 6x5 2 ]
. ry [1328 od 6413]
(4541841) 64
2 =— = 0:05
210 210
Problem 14: There are 4 hotels in a certain town. If 3 men check into hotels in 2 day,
what is the chance that each checks into a different hotel.
Solution: Since each man can check into any one of the four hotels i.¢. in‘c, =4 number
ofways and as there are 3 men, Total number of exhaustive cases = 4x4x4= 64.
Now, they must check into different hotels. Thus, first man can check into any of the four
hotels in'C, = 4 ways, the second can check into any one of the remaining 3 hotels in?C, =3
ways and the third man can check into any one of the remaining 2 hotels in*c, =2 number
f ways. This must happen simultaneously. Hence, total number of favourable cases
24x3% 2224.
_ Required probability = 7 =0:375
64
Problem 15: A box contains 25 articles including 5 defectives. Two articles are drawn one
ater the other at random. What is the probability that they are both defective when,
(The first is replaced before drawing the second, (i) The first is not replaced.
Solution: A - Event of drawing a defective article in first draw.
B - Event of drawing a defective article in second draw.
10.17PR 3
DECISION SCIENCES ;ObABLITy,
() Here, the events are independent as the article is replaced. Thus, for second day,
also there will be 25 articles in the box.
Now, P(A) =
Ble Ble
wile wie
Also, P(B) =
112
P(AnB) = P(A) P(B) = 55 = 25
(ii) If the first article is not replaced then for the second draw there will be 24 articles
including 4 defectives as one defective article is already drawn. Thus, the events ate |
dependent. 4
oD
ami" 35
and probability of drawing defective article when the first event A has taken place ig
4
P(B/A) =
Problem 16: A box contains six white and eight red balls. The second box contains nine
white and ten red balls. One ball is drawn at random from the first box and put in the second
box without noticing it's colour. A ball is drawn at random from the second box. What is the
probability that it is red?
Solution: First box contains 6(W) + 8(R) = 14 balls.
6
Probability of drawing a white ball from the first boxis, POW) = ——
8
and probability of drawing a red ball is, P(R) = a
Now, two dependent cases can take place:
(i) The ball drawn from first box and kept in second box is white.
Second box has (9+1) (W) + 10(R) = 20 balls.
Probability of drawing a red ball now = P(R/W) = >
0
(ii) If the first ball is red, then second box will have 9(W) + (10 + 1) (R) = 20 balls again j
and probability of drawing a red ball now = P(R/R) = a
10.18post scuncss PROBABILITY
Thus we have,
probability of drawing a red ball from second box
= P(Transferting white ball : '
and drawing ted bell od S*@wing red ball) or PCTransferring red ball
= P(W). P(RAW) + P(R). P(RVR)
- (SJE): couse
14)\20 14 )\20 ~ (14)(20) ~ 280
Problem 17: A card is drawn from a pack of cards. What is the chance of drawing a red
queen given that the card drawn was a face card?
solution: We have, n = 52.
Let A - Event of drawing a red queen (Heart or Diamond)
B - Event of drawing a face card (King, Queen or Jack)
P(A) = 2
3x4 12
52 = 52
We have to find the probability that the card is a red queen given that it is a face card
ie. P(A/B)
and P(B)
Now, P (AmB) = P (8). P (AIB)
P(ANB)
PIB) = “Bey
Now, mie. number of favourable cases for (ANB) = 2,
. (ANB) = 2
52
2
3221
<. PAB) = 22=—=—
WB) = Bae
52
Problem 18: The probability that a person stopping at a petrol pump will get his tyre
checked 0.12, the probability that he will get his oil checked is 0.29 and the probability that
he will get both checked is 0.07.
(i) What is the probability that the person will have neither his tyres nor oil checked?
(i) Find the probability that a person who has his oil checked will also have tyres
checked.
(i Find the probability that a person checks tyres but not oil. (P.U. MBA- Dec.05)
10.19