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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
Objectives:
After completing this chapter, you should be able to
• Understand the definitions used in hypothesis testing;
• State the null and alternative hypothesis;
• Find critical values for the z test
• State the five steps used in hypothesis testing.
• Test means when s is known, using the z test.
• Test means when s is unknown, using the t test.
• Test proportions, using the z test.
• Test variances or standard deviations, using the chi-square test.
• Test hypotheses, using confidence intervals.
• Explain the relationship between type I and type II errors and the power of a test.
Nature of Hypothesis Testing
• It is a decision-making process for evaluating claims about a population.
• In hypothesis testing, the researcher must define the population under study, state the particular
hypotheses that will be investigated, give the significance level, select a sample from the
population, collect the data, perform the calculations required for the statistical test, and reach a
conclusion.
• There are two specific statistical tests used for hypotheses concerning means: the z test and the
t test.
Three Methods used to test Hypothesis:
• The traditional method
• The P-value method
• The confidence Interval method
Steps in Hypothesis Testing – Traditional Method
• Every hypothesis-testing situation begins with the statement of a hypothesis.
Definition. A statistical hypothesis is a conjecture about a population parameter. This conjecture may or
may not be true.
Types of Hypothesis Testing
• The null hypothesis, symbolized by H0, is a statistical hypothesis that states that there
is no difference between a parameter and a specific value, or that there is no difference
between two parameters.
• The alternative hypothesis, symbolized by H1, is a statistical hypothesis that states the
existence of a difference between a parameter and a specific value, or states that there is
a difference between two parameters.
Example of how to state the Null and Alternative Hypothesis
Salutation 1. A medical researcher is interested in finding out whether a new medication will have any
undesirable side effects. The researcher is particularly concerned with the pulse rate of the patients who
take the medication. Will the pulse rate increase, decrease, or remain unchanged after a patient takes the
medication?
Since the researcher knows that the mean pulse rate for the population under study is 82 beats
per minute, the hypotheses for this situation are
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 82 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 82
The null hypothesis specifies that the mean will remain unchanged, and the alternative hypothesis states
that it will be different. This test is called a two-tailed test (a term that will be formally defined later in this
section), since the possible side effects of the medicine could be to raise or lower the pulse rate.
Situation 2. A chemist invents an additive to increase the life of an automobile battery. If the mean
lifetime of the automobile battery without the additive is 36 months,
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
then her hypotheses are
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 36 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 36
In this situation, the chemist is interested only in increasing the lifetime of the batteries, so her alternative
hypothesis is that the mean is greater than 36 months. The null hypothesis is that the mean is equal to 36
months. This test is called right-tailed, since the interest is in an increase only.
Situation 3. A contractor wishes to lower heating bills by using a special type of insulation in houses. If the
average of the monthly heating bills is $78.
Her hypotheses about heating costs with the use of insulation are
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = $78 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < $78
This test is a left-tailed test, since the contractor is interested only in lowering heating costs.
To state hypotheses correctly, researchers must translate the conjecture or claim from words into
mathematical symbols. The basic symbols used are as follows:
Equal to = Greater than >
Not equal to ≠ Less than <
The null and alternative hypotheses are stated together, and the null hypothesis contains the equals sign,
as shown (where k represents a specified number).
Two-tailed test Right-tailed test Left-tailed test
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝑘 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝑘 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝑘
𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝑘 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝑘 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝑘
A claim, though, can be stated as either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis; however, the
statistical evidence can only support the claim if it is the alternative hypothesis. Statistical evidence can
be used to reject the claim if the claim is the null hypothesis. These facts are important when you are
stating the conclusion of a statistical study.
Example: State the null and alternative hypotheses for each conjecture.
a. A researcher thinks that if expectant mothers use vitamin pills, the birth weight of the babies will
increase. The average birth weight of the population is 8.6 pounds.
b. An engineer hypothesizes that the mean number of defects can be decreased in a manufacturing
process of compact disks by using robots instead of humans for certain tasks. The mean number
of defective disks per 1000 is 18.
c. A psychologist feels that playing soft music during a test will change the results of the test. The
psychologist is not sure whether the grades will be higher or lower. In the past, the mean of the
scores was 73.
Solution
a. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 8.6 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 8.6
b. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 18 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 18
c. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 73 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 73
After stating the hypothesis, the researcher designs the study. The researcher selects the correct
statistical test, chooses an appropriate level of significance, and formulates a plan for conducting the
study. In situation A, for instance, the researcher will select a sample of patients who will be given the
drug. After allowing a suitable time for the drug to be absorbed, the researcher will measure each person’s
pulse rate.
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
Situations in Hypothesis Testing
• A statistical test uses the data obtained from a sample to make a decision about whether the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
• The numerical value obtained from a statistical test is called the test value.
Possible Outcomes of a Hypothesis Test
In this type of statistical test, the mean is computed for the data obtained from the sample and is
compared with the population mean. Then a decision is made to reject or not reject the null hypothesis
on the basis of the value obtained from the statistical test. If the difference is significant, the null
hypothesis is rejected. If it is not, then the null hypothesis is not rejected.
In the hypothesis-testing situation, there are four possible outcomes. In reality, the
null hypothesis may or may not be true, and a decision is made to reject or not reject it on the basis of the
data obtained from a sample. The four possible outcomes are shown in Figure below. Notice that there
are two possibilities for a correct decision and two possibilities for an incorrect decision.
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
If a null hypothesis is true and it is rejected, then a type I error is made. In situation A, for instance,
the medication might not significantly change the pulse rate of all the users in the population; but it might
change the rate, by chance, of the subjects in the sample. In this case, the researcher will reject the null
hypothesis when it is really true, thus committing a type I error.
On the other hand, the medication might not change the pulse rate of the subjects in the sample,
but when it is given to the general population, it might cause a significant increase or decrease in the pulse
rate of users. The researcher, on the basis of the data obtained from the sample, will not reject the null
hypothesis, thus committing a type II error.
• The level of significance is the maximum probability of committing a type I error. This probability
is symbolized by a (Greek letter alpha). That is, 𝑃(𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) = 𝛼.
• The critical value separates the critical region from the noncritical region. The symbol for critical
value is C.V.
• The critical or rejection region is the range of values of the test value that indicates that there is
a significant difference and that the null hypothesis should be rejected.
• The noncritical or nonrejection region is the range of values of the test value that indicates that
the difference was probably due to chance and that the null hypothesis should not be rejected.
• A one-tailed test indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in
the critical region on one side of the mean. A one-tailed test is either a right-tailed test or left-
tailed test, depending on the direction of the inequality of the alternative hypothesis.
• To obtain the critical value, the researcher must choose an alpha level. In situation B, suppose the
researcher chose 𝛼 = 0.01. Then the researcher must find a z value such that 1% of the area falls
to the right of the z value and 99% falls to the left of the z value, as shown in Figure (a) above.
Next, the researcher must find the area value in Table E closest to 0.9900. The critical z value is
2.33, since that value gives the area closest to 0.9900 (that is, 0.9901), as shown in Figure (b)
above.
Critical and Noncritical Regions for 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏(Right-Tailed Test)
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
Now, move on to situation C, where the contractor is interested in lowering the heating bills. The
alternative hypothesis is 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < $78. Hence, the critical value falls to the left of the mean. This test is
thus a left-tailed test. At 𝑎 = 0.01, the critical value is -2.33, since 0.0099 is the closest value to 0.01.
This is shown in the next figure.
• In a two-tailed test, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in either of the
two critical regions.
For a two-tailed test, then, the critical region must be split into two equal parts. If a 0.01, then one-half
of the area, or 0.005, must be to the right of the mean and one-half must be to the left of the mean, as
shown in the next figure.
In this case, the z value on the left side is found by looking up the z value corresponding to an area of
0.0050. The z value falls about halfway between -2.57 and -2.58 corresponding to the areas 0.0049 and
0.0051. The average of -2.57 and -2.58 is[(-2.57) + (-2.58)] / 2 =2.575 so if the z value is needed to three
decimal places, -2.575 is used; however, if the z value is rounded to two decimal places, -2.58 is used.
On the right side, it is necessary to find the z value corresponding to 0.99 + 0.005, or 0.9950. Again, the
value falls between 0.9949 and 0.9951, so +2.575 or 2.58 can be used.
Prepared by: Donna Ruth P. Talo, MSc.
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
Example:
Using Table E in Appendix C, find the critical value(s) for each situation and draw the appropriate figure,
showing the critical region.
a. A left-tailed test with 𝑎 = 0.10.
b. A two-tailed test with 𝑎 = 0.02.
c. A right-tailed test with 𝑎 = 0.005.
Solution a
Step 1 Draw the figure and indicate the appropriate area. Since this is a left-tailed test, the area of 0.10
is located in the left tail, as shown in Figure 8–10.
Step 2 Find the area closest to 0.1000 in Table E. In this case, it is 0.1003. Find the z value that
corresponds to the area 0.1003. It is -1.28.
Solution b
Step 1 Draw the figure and indicate the appropriate area. In this case, there are two areas equivalent to
0.02
𝑎/2, or = 0.01.
2
0.02
Step 2 For the left z critical value, find the area closest to 𝑎/2, or = 0.01. In this case, it is 0.0099.
2
0.02
For the right z critical value, find the area closest to 1 − 𝑎/2, or 1 - = 0.9900. In this case, it is
2
0.9901.
Find the z values for each of the areas. For 0.0099, z= -2.33. For the area of 0.9901, z = 0.9901, z= +2.33.
Solution c
Step 1 Draw the figure and indicate the appropriate area. Since this is a right-tailed test, the area 0.005
is located in the right tail,
Step 2 Find the area closest to 1 − 𝑎, or 1 − 0.005 = 0.9950. In this case, it is 0.9949 or 0.9951. The
two z values corresponding to 0.9949 and 0.9951 are +2.57 and +2.58. Since 0.9500 is halfway between
these two values, find the average of the two values (+2.57 + 2.58) / 2 = +2.575. However, 2.58 is most
often used.
Prepared by: Donna Ruth P. Talo, MSc.
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Lecture Notes #1: Hypothesis Testing
Five Steps in Hypothesis Testing
1. State the hypotheses. Be sure to state both the null and the alternative hypotheses.
2. Design the study. This step includes selecting the correct statistical test, choosing a level of
significance, and formulating a plan to carry out the study. The plan should include information
such as the definition of the population, the way the sample will be selected, and the methods
that will be used to collect the data.
3. Conduct the study and collect the data.
4. Evaluate the data. The data should be tabulated in this step, and the statistical test should be
conducted. Finally, decide whether to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
5. Summarize the results.
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