Integrated Climate Impact Assessment Tool for Urban Policy Makers
Dr R. K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI Director, Yale Climate and Energy Institute
8 August, 2011 Manila, Philippines
Climate change is unequivocal
Understanding climate change Causes of change
Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004
Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
Climate Change and Urbanization
Climate change and Urbanization
Urbanization is increasing very rapidly with the fastest rates currently taking place in the least developed countries (UN Habitat 2011) Urban developments contribute to climate change as they are major emitters of GHG emissions and cause changes in land use. Climate change exacerbates other stresses on urban settlements These stresses can be serious enough that any significant additional stress could be the trigger for undesirable outcomes.
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Centres
Projected impacts on urban centres
Will affect physical infrastructure of cities Impacts on economic activities and welfare of city dwellers A large number of displaced people are a likely consequence of extreme events Impacts on public health
Vulnerability of coastal zones
Under various scenarios, coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion (1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion by 2080s 60% of the worlds metropolises with a population of over 5 million are located within 100 km of the coast, including 12 with populations greater than 10 million. Asian megadeltas especially are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability Without adaptation, over 100 million people will be flooded annually above a 40 cm sea level rise for all SRES scenarios Asia dominates the global exposure to flooding by storm surge with its large coastal population
Table 6.5. Estimates of the population (in millions) of the coastal flood plain in 1990 and the 2080s
Vulnerability of coastal deltas
Extreme (> 1 million people potentially displaced by current sea-level trends by 2050) High (50 000 to 1 million) Medium (500 to 50 000)
Though urban centres are vulnerable to climate change, they also represent hubs of opportunities to deal with it
Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Main challenges to adaptation strategies
Insufficient information and knowledge on the impacts of climate change Lack of co-ordination in the formulation of responses Poverty (identified as the largest barrier to developing the capacity to cope and adapt) The biggest challenge is to have adaptation priorities recognized as a central dimension of development, economic strength and poverty reduction (UN Habitat 2011)
There is substantial [] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could [] reduce emissions below current levels - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)
GDP
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term
GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation Current Schematic graph
2030
Time
Key mitigation options and co-benefits at urban level
Energy efficient buildings Increased building value, improved comfort, poverty alleviation Renewable energy production Job creation, improved air quality, energy security Construction density and green spaces
Improved quality of life and air quality
Public and non-motorized transport
Social equity, financial savings, improved public health, space gain
Opportunities Mitigation targets
Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030
Need for an integrated framework for urban system analysis
Such a tool is not yet available and will be a major innovation This tool will be of crucial help to local policy makers and a guide to global climate financing Capacity and institution building are key Asian Development Bank is in a strategic position to launch and promote this tool
Collaboration between international financial institutions and other organizations is the way to success
Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them
- Albert Einstein