STRATEGIC INTERVENTION

MATERIAL IN GRADE 11
STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Topic: Estimation of Parameters

RICHARD R. RAQUEÑO

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. Guide Card ----------

B. Activity Card -------

C. Enrichment Card---

D. Assessment Card---

E. Reference Card----

F. Answer Key----------

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 MODULE 1

Confidence Interval Estimates

for the Population Mean

General Learning Competency:

Computes for the confidence interval estimate based on the appropriate form of
the estimator for the population mean.

Specific Objectives:

At the end of the lesson, you are expected to:

1. Define confidence level

2. Define confidence interval
3. Compute confidence interval estimate

Introduction:
When we describe population values, we want to be confident about our
estimates. Other than the poin estimate, we can use a range of values. This range
of values is called interval estimate. You will learn more about estimates in this
lesson.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

My Guide…

This material helps you to understand confidence interval estimates for the
population mean.

We will discuss confidence level and confidence interval. We will also apply the
normal curve concepts in computing the confidence interval estimates.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

What to do:

TEACH YOURSELF
Just like what the saying goes, “AN APPLE A DAY, MAKES THE DOCTOR
AWAY.”

Making notes and information about the topic will help you understand better
the lesson.

TAKE NOTE:

• An interval estimate, also called a confidence interval, is a range of values

where most likely the true value will fall. This parameter may or may not
contain the true parameter value.

• Hence, a confidence interval estimate is a range of values wherein one has

a certain percentage of confidence that the true value will likely fall.

• In determining an interval estimate, a degree of confidence (expresses as

a percentage such as 95%) that the interval contains the true and then
calculate a confidence interval from each sample, these confidence
intervals are constructed wide enough so that 95% of them contain the
true population parameter and 5% do not. The value 95% is also known
as the confidence level.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 The value 95% is
also known as the
confidence level.

• Hence, a confidence interval estimate is a range of values wherein one has

a certain percentage of confidence that the true value will likely fall.
• There are three commonly used confidence intervals: the 90%, the 95%
and the 99% confidence intervals.
• The general formula for confidence intervals for large samples is
constructed as follows:

𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝑬𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 ∓ (𝑻𝒂𝒃𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒓 𝑽𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 × 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝑬𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝑬𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆)

where the Tabular Value depends on the sampling distribution of the point
estimator.

• In particular, for the population mean, the point estimator is the sample mean
while the standard error of the sample mean will be used in the computation.
With a known population variance, 2 and sample size, n the standard error
of the sample mean is computed as a ratio of the standard deviation (square
root of the variance) and the square root of the same size or mathematically,
𝜎
⁄ 𝑛.
√

• Also, since the population variance is known the sampling distribution of the
sample mean will follow the standard normal distribution or the Z
distribution. This would mean that the tabular value would come from the Z-
distribution table. Usually, we use the notation Z/2 as a tabular value in the
Z-distribution table whose area to its right is equal to /2.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

• Thus, a (1-)% confidence interval (CI) of the population mean (µ) when the
population variance (2) is known is constructed as
 
X − z 2 ( n ) < μ < to X − z 2 ( n )

OR
𝜎 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ ∓ (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) or 𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
√𝑛 √𝑛 √𝑛

where 𝑋̅ is the sample mean computed from a simple random sample of size
𝜎
n. The lower limit of the interval is 𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) while the upper limit is 𝑋̅ +
√𝑛
𝜎
(𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ).
√𝑛

• In the general formula for determining the interval estimate for the parameter
µ, the value

𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) is called the lower confidence boundary or limit and the 𝑋̅ +
√𝑛
𝜎
(𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) is called the upper confidence boundary or limit.
√𝑛

• For a 90% confidence interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2 = + 1.65; for a 95% confidence interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2=
+ 1.96 and for for a 90% confidence interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2= + 2.58.

For a 90% confidence interval

𝑍𝛼⁄2= + 1.65;
for a 95% confidence interval
𝑍𝛼⁄2= + 1.96
and for a 99% confidence
interval
𝑍𝛼⁄2= + 2.58.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 Example 1: Hours Spent on Watching Television

A researcher wants to estimate the number of hours that 6-year old

children spend watching television. A sample of 50 6-year old children was
observed to have a mean viewing of 3 hours. The population is normally
distributed with a population standard deviation 𝜎 = 0.5 hours. Find the
95% confidence interval of the population mean.

Solution:
Determine the confidence interval.
a. Determine the confidence The confidence level is 95%.
level.
b. Determine the confidence The confidence coefficient is 1.96
coefficient.
𝜎
c. Find the maximum error E. E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 × 𝑛
√
0.5
= 1.96 ×
√50
= 1.96 × 0.07
= 0.14
d. Find the lower and the upper 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
confidence limits. √𝑛 √𝑛
0.5 0.5
𝑋̅ − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (1.96 × )
√50 √50
3 – 0.14 to 3 + 0.14
2.86 to 3.14
e. Describe the results. Thus, we can say with 95% confidence
that the interval between 2.86 hours
and 3.14 hours contain the population
mean 𝜇 based on 50 6-year old
children’s TV viewing time.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 Example 2: Weights of Grade 11 students

A random sample of 10 students in Grade 11 has the following

weights.
40 45 46 48 48 50 55 55 56 58

Assuming that the population standard deviation of the weights of all

students in Grade 11 is nine kilograms (9 kg), find the 99% confidence
interval estimate of the true average weight of the students.

Solution:
a. Determine the The confidence level is 99%.
confidence level.
b. Determine the The confidence coefficient is 2.58.
confidence
coefficient.
c. Find the sample ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
mean. 𝑥̅ =
𝑛
40 + 45 + 46 + 48 + 48 + 50 + 55 + 55 + 56 + 58
=
10
501
=
10

= 5.01

d. Find the maximum E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 × 𝜎

√𝑛
error E. 9
= 2.58 × 10
√
= 1.96 × 0.07
= 0.14
e. Find the lower and 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 ×
)
the upper confidence √𝑛 √𝑛
limits. 0.5 0.5
𝑋̅ − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (1.96 × )
√50 √50
3 – 0.14 to 3 + 0.14
2.86 to 3.14
f. Describe the results. Thus, we can say with 95% confidence that the
interval between 2.86 hours and 3.14 hours
contain the population mean 𝜇 based on 50 6-
year old children’s TV viewing time.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

It’s Your Turn to Perform

Let’s see how far have you gone to your lesson.

1. A sample of 60 Grade 10 students’ ages was obtained to estimate the
mean age of all Grade 10 students, 𝑋̅ = 15.3 years and the population 𝜎
is 16. Find the 99% confidence interval for 𝜇.

Solution:
Determine the confidence interval.
a. Determine the confidence The confidence level is 99%.
level.
b. Determine the confidence The confidence coefficient is ________ .
coefficient.
𝜎
c. Find the maximum error E. E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 × 𝑛
√
16
= _______ ×
√60
= _______ × ________
= ___________
d. Find the lower and the upper 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
confidence limits. √𝑛 √𝑛
16 16
𝑋̅ − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (1.96 × )
√60 √60
15.3 – _______ to 15.3 + _________
2.86 to 3.14
e. Describe the results. Thus, we can say with 99% confidence
that the interval between 11.26 years
and 19.34 years contain the population
mean 𝜇 based on 60 Grade 10
students

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

 2. A random selection of 40 entering Mathematics majors has the following
GPAs. Assume that 𝜎 = 0.46.
4.0 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.1 4.0 3.9 3.5
3.2 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.0
3.0 2.8 5.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5 2.8 3.3 3.1
3.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.8
Estimate the true mean GPA with 95% confidence.

Solution:
a. Determine the confidence The confidence level is 95%.
level.
b. Determine the confidence The confidence coefficient is ______.
coefficient.
c. Find the sample mean. ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
𝑥̅ =
𝑛

= _________________
𝜎
d. Find the maximum error E. E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ×
√𝑛
0.46
=_____ ×
√40
= _______ × 0.07
= ________
e. Find the lower and the upper 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
confidence limits. √𝑛 √𝑛
0.46 0.46
𝑋̅ − (_____ × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (_____ × )
√40 √40
_______ – ________to _______ – _______
So the lower and the upper boundary
limits rage from 3.20 – 3.48
f. Describe the results. Thus, we can say with 95% confidence
that the interval between 3.20 and 3.48
contains the true mean GPA of the
population based on the sample GPA of
40 entering mathematics majors.

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

For Your Enrichment:
You have learned how to compute the interval estimates for the population mean.
Let us recall what you have learned for your mastery of the lesson.
1. In Statistics, estimation is the process of determining values of
parameters.

2. The confidence level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the

probability that the interval estimate contains the parameter. It
describes what percentage of intervals from many different samples
contains the unknown population parameter.

3. For a 90% confidence interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2 = + 1.65; for a 95% confidence

interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2= + 1.96 and for for a 90% confidence interval 𝑍𝛼⁄2= +
2.58.

4. An interval estimate, called a confidence interval, is a range of values

that is used to estimate a parameter.

5. General formula for confidence intervals for large samples:

𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
√𝑛 √𝑛

6. Computing formula for E.

𝜎
E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ×
√𝑛

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

Challenge:
1. Which of the following illustrates confidence level?
a. 95% b. 12.5 c. 50.0 d. 90-95
2. Which of these illustrates confidence interval?
a. 0.95 b. 99% c. 100 d. 54 - 59
3. Given the information: the sampled population is normally distributed,
𝑋̅ = 36, 𝜎 = 3 and n=20. What is the 95% confidence interval estimate
for u?
4. Given n = 58, 𝑋̅ = 75 and 𝜎 = 10. The sampled population is normally
distributed. Find the 99% confidence interval for u.
5. A sample of 60 Grade 11 students’ ages was obtained to estimate the
mean age of all Grade 11 students. 𝑋̅ = 15.3 years and the population
variance is 16. Find the 90% confidence interval for u.

References:
1. Statistics and Probability for Senior High School Curriculum Guide
2. Statistics and Probability for Senior High School Teachers Guide
3. Statistics and Probability
By: Rene R. Belecina, Elisa S. Baccay and Efren B. Mateo

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

Answer Key:
It’s Your Turn to Perform

1. Solution:
Determine the confidence interval.
b. Determine the confidence The confidence coefficient is 2.58.
coefficient.
𝜎
c. Find the maximum error E. E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ×
√𝑛
16
= 1.96 ×
√60
= 1.96 ×2.06
= 4.04
d. Find the lower and the upper 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
confidence limits. √𝑛 √𝑛
16 16
𝑋̅ − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (1.96 × )
√60 √60
15.3 – 4.04 to 15.3 + 4.04
11.26 to 19.34

2. Solution:
a. Determine the confidence The confidence coefficient is 1.96.
coefficient.
b. Find the sample mean. = 3.34
𝜎
c. Find the maximum error E. E = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ×
√𝑛
0.46
=1.96 ×
√40
= 1.96 × 0.07
= 0.14
d. Find the lower and the upper 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
confidence limits. √𝑛 √𝑛
0.46 0.46
3.34 − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 3.34 + (1.96 × )
√40 √40
3.34 – 0.14 to 3.34 + 0.14
3.20 to 3.48

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño

Challenge

1. b
2. d
𝜎 𝜎
3. 𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
√𝑛 √𝑛
3 3
36 − (1.96 × ) < 𝜇 < 36 + (1.96 × )
√20 √20
36 – 1.31 to 36 + 1.31
34.69 – 37.31

𝜎 𝜎
4. 𝑋̅ − (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × ) < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + (𝑍𝛼⁄2 × )
√𝑛 √𝑛
10 10
75 − (2.58 × ) < 𝜇 < 75 + (2.58 × )
√58 √58
75 – 3.39 to 75 +3.39
71.61 – 78.39

Strategic Intervention Material in Statistics and Probability by Richard R. Raqueño