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SMT Divergence Trading Strategies Explained

This document provides a divergence study using the Smart Money Tool to identify potential short-term swing and day trades in the EURUSD and GBPUSD currency pairs. It analyzes a period of divergence between the pairs from January 31st to February 28th 2019. By zooming in on highlighted areas of the GBPUSD chart, it identifies several breakouts of market structure and entry opportunities using Fibonacci retracement levels, with potential 10-30 pip profit targets. Both conservative trades waiting for retests of support levels and more aggressive entries on the initial breakouts are discussed. Similar analysis is then shown on 15-minute charts to identify additional day trading opportunities within the same price ranges.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
203 views4 pages

SMT Divergence Trading Strategies Explained

This document provides a divergence study using the Smart Money Tool to identify potential short-term swing and day trades in the EURUSD and GBPUSD currency pairs. It analyzes a period of divergence between the pairs from January 31st to February 28th 2019. By zooming in on highlighted areas of the GBPUSD chart, it identifies several breakouts of market structure and entry opportunities using Fibonacci retracement levels, with potential 10-30 pip profit targets. Both conservative trades waiting for retests of support levels and more aggressive entries on the initial breakouts are discussed. Similar analysis is then shown on 15-minute charts to identify additional day trading opportunities within the same price ranges.
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Introduction to Divergence Study
  • Detailed Chart Analysis
  • Trade Stalking Techniques
  • Conclusion and Additional Notes

SMART MONEY TOOL DIVERGENCE STUDY FOR SWING AND DAY TRADES

When we study correlation we expect to see it being respected.

If you have been studying ICT concepts you would know that we use those times when correlation
doesn’t seem to be respected to hunt for short term swing trades and or day trades. We call this a
crack in correlation or Smart Money Divergence Tool (SMT Divergence).

There is observable divergence from 31/01/2019 to 28/02/2019 for EURUSD and GBPUSD as shown
in the chart below.

We expect all XXXUSD pairs to make HH/LL at the same time according to correlation but when to
look at the chart above, it can be seen that we have a crack in correlation – Divergence. As the
EURUSD made a LL, GBPUSD made a HH.

Therefore we want to zoom in the GBPUSD in the area highlighted in the chart below. I chose
GBPUSD for this study but you can choose either for yourself.

Remember we are hunting for shorts. Trade with the trend. The trend is your friend.
By zooming in, we want to see if inside that highlighted small section of price action we can find
something to base our trades from.

Below is a zoomed in 4 hour chart for GBPUSD.

Wow, look at that BMS – Break of Market Structure. Once we see that, we can either be
conservative or be aggressive. If you are conservative you will wait for the market to break the new
LL and try to find an entry on either its retest or fib level or order block test.

We are going to be aggressive and see how taking trades from the first leg that broke structure looks
like. For better clarity let’s look at the more zoomed in 1 hour chart below with some fibs anchored
in too.

Look at that! There is you Sweet Spot 61.8 fib entry or order block fair value repricing entry.

The price has been discounted. There is absolutely no drawdown on this trade even if it’s aggressive
off of the first BMS leg.
You could have found more and more trades using the simple fib tool stalking prices to go lower.
Just take a look at the following chart for more swing trades that you would have captured. Imagine
you could have captures only one trade from all of these. Remember we don’t trade every day. Do
your best to cherry pick one or two trades and milk them hard.

I skipped two more trades in this chart otherwise it would have looked messier that it looks already.

I have not forgotten about day traders, those who loves not holding on to trades that span to the
next day. Well I have something for you too.

Looking at the chart below, I have noted all possible places we could have taken swing trades using
the fib tool.

We want to zoom in and study these very same areas in a 15 minute chart and use the ICT Judas
swing and see how you would have capitalised on the range expansion for some beautiful pips and
probably with a tiny 10 – 30 pip stop.
Look at the 15 minute zoomed out chart below.

This is very beautiful. Since we are hunting for shorts we expect a stop hunt high drop for about 10
to 20 pips.

The green boxes are the range expansions and possible pips pay outs. Only one trade wasn’t going to
work out.

NB: For more detail about ICT Concepts you can learn from a lot or resources shared in this group or
other telegram groups alike. Also if you use BTMM Steve Mauro, Throw in some Mayo, Water, Male,
catchup, TDI etc and see the magic. It will resonate with this naked analysis.

Thanks Folks and Happy Trading.

Analysis and Study by:

Aurthur Musendame

(Zimbabwe)

Common questions

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The effectiveness of using supplementary resources such as BTMM Steve Mauro and related tools mentioned in Source 2 can significantly enhance trading strategies by providing additional frameworks and methodologies for analyzing market conditions. These tools often offer unique perspectives or proprietary techniques that can identify trading opportunities not apparent through traditional analysis methods. By integrating these resources, traders can diversify their approach, foster a comprehensive trading toolkit, and increase adaptability to various market scenarios. However, while these resources add value, their effectiveness is contingent upon proper understanding and application, as misuse or over-dependence could lead to confusion or suboptimal trades. Thus, combining these resources with core trading principles allows traders to reinforce their strategies and achieve a balanced, informed trading practice .

Day traders can use the ICT Judas swing concept to enhance their trading accuracy by identifying engineered false breakouts that occur during specific periods of the trading day, thus avoiding being trapped in deceptive market moves. By anticipating these swings, traders can plan their entries and exits to coincide with the anticipated reversals following the false breakout, an approach that minimizes risk and maximizes profit potential. For example, recognizing potential stop hunt high drops of 10 to 20 pips can allow a trader to set strategic entries just before the market returns to its primary trend, thereby optimizing range expansions and capturing profitable pips with tight stops .

Minimizing drawdowns in a trading strategy is significant because it preserves trading capital, allowing traders to withstand periods of adverse market conditions without significant losses. A strategy that minimizes drawdowns increases the patience and resilience needed to capture favorable trades while maintaining psychological confidence. In relation to the Smart Money Divergence Tool (SMT Divergence), minimizing drawdowns ensures that trades taken during periods of divergence are aligned with market structure breaks and optimal retracement levels, like fib entries. This allows traders to capitalize on price dislocations with carefully assessed risk, fostering a systematic approach that limits potential losses while maximizing trading opportunities .

The "ICT Judas swing" is a trading term used to describe an engineered false breakout that occurs at specific times during the trading day, often used to trap traders moving in a particular direction before reversing. This technique influences a trader's decision-making process by alerting them to potential manipulative market moves designed to create liquidity, allowing smart money to capitalize on the established range. While planning day trades, traders use the ICT Judas swing concept to identify potential points for range expansion and capitalize on these engineered moves with minimal drawdown risk. For instance, when anticipating range expansions, traders would look for stop hunt high drops within a specific pip range, thus entering trades that align with expected market behavior .

Fib tools integrate into forex chart analysis by providing traders with key levels of potential price retracement, particularly useful for identifying entry points in short-term trades. These tools highlight levels like the 61.8 fib, where prices are expected to find support or resistance, offering opportunities for trade entries or exits. In the context of short-term trades, fib tools assist traders in assessing where price movements might reverse, ensuring trades are aligned with prevailing trends and minimizing potential losses. By anchoring fib levels onto a chart, traders can stalk for prices to go lower or higher, leveraging the benefits of precision in capturing short-term price fluctuations that align with the larger market structure .

The concept of "trading with the trend" enhances the probability of success in forex markets by aligning trades with the prevailing direction of market movements, thereby increasing the likelihood of trades moving profitably. During periods of divergence, such as when a crack in correlation is observed, following the trend means choosing trades that go with the longer-term market direction despite short-term reversals or divergences. This alignment helps traders avoid contrarian positions that challenge the larger trend, reducing the risk of losses associated with unpredictable and volatile market behavior. By sticking to trend trading, traders exploit the momentum and avoid the traps associated with attempting to trade against the prevailing market movements or during false breakouts .

Detailed chart analysis plays a crucial role in identifying clear trading signals, crucial for traders using the Smart Money Divergence Tool (SMT Divergence) to develop robust trade strategies. By thoroughly analyzing chart patterns, traders uncover divergences and market structure breaks indicating shifts in market sentiment or trader behavior. These insights help traders to pinpoint precise entry and exit points while aligning trades with developed patterns, such as fib retracements and order blocks, to enhance trading decisions' accuracy. Detailed chart analysis also aids in discerning whether observed divergences align with general market trends or create exceptions that might result in profitable trades, thus refining trade strategies to improve risk-reward ratios and overall outcomes .

When deciding between a conservative and an aggressive trading approach after identifying a Break of Market Structure (BMS), traders must consider their risk appetite and market conditions. A conservative trader would wait for further confirmation of the new trend, such as a retest of the broken structure's low or testing of fib levels or order blocks, ensuring a lower risk entry with potentially smaller but more secure gains. Conversely, an aggressive approach involves entering the market as soon as the structure is broken, capitalizing quickly on the opportunity with the potential for higher returns, albeit with increased risk of drawdowns. This decision requires careful analysis of the chart patterns and confidence in the chosen trade's potential success, such as observing a sweet spot like a 61.8 fib entry that aligns with the prevailing trend .

Relying heavily on trading strategies based on pattern recognition, such as the Break of Market Structure (BMS), carries several potential pitfalls. Firstly, these strategies assume that past price patterns will repeat, which may not always be the case due to market unpredictability and changing conditions. Secondly, pattern recognition strategies might lead traders to overlook other significant market signals or fundamentals, leading to biased trading decisions. Additionally, BMS strategies often require precise timing for entries and exits; misjudging these moments due to market noise can lead to missed opportunities or unexpected losses. Furthermore, over-reliance can spur overconfidence, reducing a trader's adaptability when their chosen pattern does not emerge as anticipated. Consequently, traders risk becoming victims of confirmation bias by only trading setups that fit predefined patterns instead of considering broader market analysis .

The importance of observing correlation in forex trading strategies lies in the expectation that certain currency pairs, like the EURUSD and GBPUSD, should typically exhibit correlated movements, making higher highs (HH) and lower lows (LL) simultaneously. However, when there is a divergence, such as the EURUSD making a lower low while GBPUSD makes a higher high, it indicates a crack in the correlation. This divergence is known as the Smart Money Divergence Tool (SMT Divergence) and signals a potential opportunity for swing trades for traders to exploit the temporary dislocation in price movements. By zooming into the specific currency pair demonstrating divergence, such as GBPUSD, traders can identify potential trade entries, like breaks in market structure (BMS) or fib level retracements, aligning with the trend to maximize trade outcomes .

SMART MONEY TOOL DIVERGENCE STUDY FOR SWING AND DAY TRADES 
When we study correlation we expect to see it being respected. 
I
By zooming in, we want to see if inside that highlighted small section of price action we can find 
something to base our tra
You could have found more and more trades using the simple fib tool stalking prices to go lower. 
Just take a look at the fol
Look at the 15 minute zoomed out chart below. 
 
 
This is very beautiful. Since we are hunting for shorts we expect a stop h

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