Apophis T–9 Years 2020 (LPI Contrib. No. 2242) 2043.
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THE PLANETARY DEFENSE AND SCIENCE CASE FOR A MISSION TO STUDY APOPHIS BEFORE,
DURING, AND AFTER ITS CLOSEST EARTH APPROACH IN 2029. R. T. Daly1, O. S. Barnouin1, A. F.
Cheng1, J. B. Plescia2, D. C. Richardson2, J. V. DeMartini2, N. C. Schmerr2, J. M. Sunshine2, C. M. Ernst1, B. W.
Denevi1, J. T. Cahill1, A. K. Davis1, N. C. Chabot1, and D. S. Lauretta3. 1Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics
Laboratory, Laurel, MD, USA ([Link]@[Link]), 2University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 3University of
Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
Introduction: In April 2029, the asteroid 99942 state of Apophis leading up to, during, and after its
Apophis will pass within ~36,700 km (5.7 Earth radii) closest approach, we can learn about each of these
of the Earth—a distance comparable to geosynchronous processes. The Apophis Earth flyby also provides an
orbit (~36,000 km). Apophis’ close approach in nine opportunity to test the idea that tidally induced
years does not, in and of itself, justify a sending a resurfacing from close encounters with Earth may
spacecraft. Two factors, however, compellingly explain the presence of unweathered surfaces on Q-type
motivate a mission to Apophis. asteroids [3].
First, according to impact risk data from the Sentry Although models predict that Apophis will not be
program, Apophis is among the top three potentially reshaped at large scales by tidal forces during the
hazardous asteroids (PHAs), as rated by the Palermo encounter, they do suggest that smaller-scale motion or
scale [1]. Characterizing key properties (e.g., mass, displacements may occur, processes that could trigger
detailed shape, topography, and internal structure) of seismic activity [e.g., 8]. Apophis has surface slopes as
Apophis and refining its orbital properties and spin state steep as 45° (Figure 1); such slopes should be close to
will improve predictions for future Earth flybys and aid failure.
the planning of successful mitigation efforts, should the
need arise. Furthermore, Apophis provides a unique test
of models, physical assumptions, and remote inferences
about PHAs that will help inform mitigation efforts for
any future hazardous object.
Second, the 2029 Earth encounter provides a rare
opportunity to observe active tidal forces on a ~340-m
diameter asteroid. Tidal forces will not be strong enough
to break apart Apophis, but may trigger measurable
changes in asteroid rotational dynamics, surface
morphology, exposure of space weathered materials,
and seismic activity [2–8]. The 2029 close passage of
Apophis is the best near-term opportunity to study these
tidal disturbances, which also affect other Solar System
objects that encounter tidal stresses.
Here we focus on the science and planetary defense
motivations for a dedicated mission that targets Apophis
in time for its 2029 Earth encounter. Potential mission
concepts are discussed elsewhere [e.g., 10–12]. A
mission that takes fullest advantage of the science and Figure 1. Radar-based shape model of Apophis [13],
planetary defense opportunities presented by the colored by surface slope.
Apophis flyby will study the asteroid before, during,
and after its closest approach. It would be wise, however, to remember that
Why Apophis in 2029: The evolution of small missions often yield results at odds with pre-encounter
asteroids (<5 km) is influenced by YORP driven spin- models or predictions. Every asteroid visited by
up, impact processes (including impact-induced spacecraft has surprised the scientific community (e.g.,
seismicity), thermal fragmentation processes, and tides, Itokawa, Bennu, Ryugu, Eros, Mathilde, etc.), with
when in close-enough proximity to a planet. The 2029 observations that have defied pre-encounter predictions
Apophis apparition is uniquely suited for studying how and models. For instance, OSIRIS-REx has observed
planetary tides affect asteroids, while also providing multiple particle ejection events at Bennu [9]. No pre-
insights into impacts and thermal fragmentation. By encounter models predicted that Bennu would be
studying the surface, interior seismicity, and rotational
Apophis T–9 Years 2020 (LPI Contrib. No. 2242) [Link]
ejecting particles as large and as often as it does. The (an active seismic source could be brought, in case
extent to which features on Apophis will be reshaped, micrometeorites or tidal sources were insufficient to
the interior structure adjusted, and the asteroid’s spin measure the deep interior structure) or radar sounding.
state modified by the Earth encounter in 2029 should be Asteroid internal structure is poorly understood [17], yet
viewed as open questions—questions that can only be will significantly affect the outcomes of asteroid
answered by a rendezvous mission that characterizes deflection attempts. Apophis in 2029 is, for the next
Apophis before (to establish a baseline for reference), few decades, our sole chance to study the effects of
during, and after Earth closest approach. A mission that Earth tides on PHAs. We maximize our ability to
studied Apophis only after closest approach would not interpret the tidal effects and prepare for a future
provide the crucial before-and-after comparisons deflection attempt (should the need materialize) if we
required to fully characterize the effects of the Earth determine the structure of Apophis’ interior.
encounter. If a mission to Apophis were executed, Apophis and
Relevant instruments on an Apophis rendezvous Bennu (which is also one of the top 3 PHAs on the
mission could include a high-resolution color camera, Palermo scale [1]) would become the best-characterized
seismometers, and/or a radar sounding instrument, PHAs. The two bodies have very different compositions
among others [10–12]. The impactor flux in near-Earth and properties, which makes them useful endmembers
space, and therefore at Apophis, is reasonably well- for considering how the diverse properties of PHAs
understood. The flux is such that, within a year, a natural could affect asteroid deflection efforts (if needed at a
impact should occur that produces seismic signals that future time), since the specific type of PHA requiring
could be detected by a seismometer on the surface. deflection is not known in advance.
A null result (e.g., no detectable change in the spin Acknowledgments: O.S.B and J.B.P. acknowledge
state, surface, or interior of Apophis) would still provide previous support from the NASA Planetary Science
useful information. It would serve as a point of reference Deep Space SmallSat Studies program under grant
for validating tidal deformation models and bound the NNX17AK33G. N.C.S., D.C.R., & J.M.S. acknowledge
values of properties critical to planetary defense, such support from NASA grant 80NSSC19M0216.
as the bulk strength, porosity, and internal structure of References: [1] JPL Center for Near Earth Object
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