Preparing for "The Big One" in the Philippines

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This chapter provides a review of literature related to the study, including information about earthquakes, the predicted "Big One" earthquake that could hit Manila, disaster risk reduction …

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  • Review of Related Literature
  • Synthesis

Chapter II: Review of Related Literature

This chapter contains the literature and related studies from books, dissertations, periodicals and

publications used by the researcher for this study.

Earthquake

Earthquake as many of us know is the movement of the land due to the stored energy on the inside.

According to Gabor Lorant, FAIA (2016), an earthquake happens when two blocks of the Earth suddenly

slip past one another. The surface where they slip is called the fault or fault plane. The location below the

Earth’s surface where the earthquake starts is called the hypocenter, and the location directly above it on

the surface of the Earth is called the epicenter. Sometimes an earthquake has foreshocks. These are smaller

earthquakes that happen in the same place as the larger earthquake that follows. Scientists can’t tell that

an earthquake is a foreshock until the larger earthquake happens. The largest, main earthquake is called

the mainshock. Mainshocks always have aftershocks that follow. These are smaller earthquakes that occur

afterwards in the same place as the mainshock. If the mainshock has released a huge amount of movement,

aftershocks can continue for weeks, months, and even years after the mainshock. The Earth has four major

layers: the inner core, outer core, mantle and crust. The crust and the top of the mantle make up a thin skin

on the surface of our planet. But this skin is not all in one piece – it is made up of many pieces like a

puzzle covering the surface of the earth. These puzzle pieces slowly keep on moving around, sliding past

one another and bumping into each other. We call these puzzle pieces tectonic plates, and the edges of the

plates are called the plate boundaries. The plate boundaries are made up of many faults, and most of the

earthquakes around the world occur on these faults. Since the edges of the plates are rough, they get stuck

while the rest of the plate keeps moving. Finally, when the plate has moved far enough, the edges unstick

on one of the faults and an earthquake happens.


The Big One

According to Philstar, (2017/02/14) there will be an upcoming earthquake that could hit Metro

Manila and its nearby provinces under the West Valley Fault called the "The Big One". Expected to strike

3 to 4 years from now, the earthquake is expected to reach a magnitude 7.2 and might also strike anytime

as confirmed by Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology or PHILVOLCS. As shown by a

study of Japan International Cooperation Agency for PHILVOLCS and the Metropolitan Manila

Development Authority, the earthquake could kill up to 34,00 people and could injure 100,000 others due

to collapsed buildings. PHILVOLCS also said that the National Capital Region or NCR could face

isolation from nearby provinces due to collapsed road and buildings that would be similar of that what

happened to Baguio in 1990.

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

The Philippines is an archipelagic nation, which lies along the “Pacific Ring of Fire” and the

typhoon belt of the Pacific Ocean, making it one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Hence,

the Philippines had established a legal and institutional structure for responding to disasters as early as

1941 where the Civilian Emergency Administration or CEA was created to formulate and execute policies

and plans for the protection and welfare of the civilian population under extraordinary and emergency

conditions. Subsequent laws and regulations regarding disaster management were codified in Presidential

Decree No. 1566, Strengthening the Philippine Disaster Control, Capability and Establishing the National

Program on Community Disaster Preparedness (1978). It created the National Disaster Coordinating

Council or NDCC as the highest policy-making body on matters of disasters in the country and established

disaster coordination from the barangays, to the national level. (Law and Regulation for the Reduction of

Risk from Natural Disasters in the Philippines a National Law Desk Survey July 2012). Due to the

damaged caused by disasters, Disaster Risk Reduction and Management was given importance and further
implementations were made. The Republic Act No. 10121 (Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management of 2010) defined Disaster Risk Reduction and Management as

“The systematic process of using administrative directives, organization, and operational skills and

capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the

adverse impacts of hazard and the possibility of disaster. Prospective disaster risk reduction and

management refers to the risk reduction and management activities that address and seek to avoid

the development of new or increased disaster risks, especially if risk reduction policies are not put

in place.”

National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Council (NDRRMC), is a working group of

various government, non-government, civil sector and private sector organizations of the Government of

the Republic of the Philippines established by Republic Act 10121 of 2009. It is administered by the Office

of Civil Defense under the Department of National Defense. The Council is responsible for ensuring the

protection and welfare of the people during disasters or emergencies (United Nations, 2017). The

NDRRMC studies any hazard that might occur in the Philippines. They conduct seminars, programs, and

other practices to make the community ready in the occurrence of hazards. They give guidelines to every

community in case of hazard emergencies that a family may face to ensure their safety.

Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in Schools

The Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 Section 14 states the

integration of Disaster Risk Reduction into the school curriculum and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK)

program and mandatory training for the public sector employees. Agencies such as DepEd, CHED,

TESDA, and DILG-BFP shall integrate disaster risk reduction and management education in the school

curriculum of secondary and tertiary level of education, including the National Service Training Program
(NSTP), whether private or public, including formal and nonformal, technical-vocational, indigenous

learning, and out-of-school youth courses and programs.( Mogol, 2017).

The Community-based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a specialization course under the

NDRMP that introduces concepts, tools, and mechanisms to help design and implement community-based

disaster risk management programs. The course main goal is to reduce the community’s exposure and

vulnerability and to enhance its capacity for disaster risk management. The course also stated the

important role of educational institutions as indispensable actors in community-based DRRM. It is

believed that the students are considered as the most vulnerable sector of the population, but could also

be the most potent agents in all aspects of the disaster management cycle. The policies and frameworks

states the following: planning/organizing of earthquake drills, developing the school earthquake

evacuation plan, orientation on conducting earthquake drills, and actual conduction of earthquake drills.

(Mogol, 2017).

In 2007, the DepEd initiated the Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into Development

(MDRD), where data gathered shows that the total cost of damage to school buildings resulting from

various types of disaster from year 2000 to 2006 was close to 1.2 billion US dollars. Also, most school

lack existing subject related to DRRM. Hence, DepEd decentralize the construction programs of school

buildings, encouraging the active participation of the community.

Two types of plan for the specification designs of public school was recommended. First is the

Standard Building Plan, where it stated that the standard simple design of a public school building in the

country should be 7m by 9m for urban areas with a classroom-student ratio of 1:45. The design also

requires the completion of basic architectural elements such as cemented floors, finished walls, weather

protection roofing, windows, two access doors, a cathedral- type ceiling, functional electrical wirings and

fixtures, and a blackboard. Second is the Special Building Plan, where the required design that school
should follow should consider the following: soil stability, wind forces, and floods, making sure the

structures are hazard-resilient (Oliva, 2016).

Synthesis

Based on the comprehensive review of literature on the capacity of the Jaime Cardinal Sin Building

in Paco Catholic School to withstand earthquakes in anticipation of the Big One, the researchers

extensively gathered compilation of articles, studies and publications that served as basis of reference to

what the study intended to explore.

Due to Paco Catholic School’s geographical location, which is near the West Valley Fault, its

structure and the community is prone to risks during earthquakes. The government together with the

NDRRMC and DepEd implemented laws to prepare schools in the occurrence of earthquakes. As stated

by Assistant Secretary Reynaldo D. Laguda of the Department of Education, “ No school can be safe

without the involvement of its host community and no community is safe if its schools are not safe.” The

Department of Education provided a Disaster Risk Reduction Resource Manual that provides schools with

information and proper guidelines to ensure that schools in Philippines are not vulnerable to disasters like

earthquakes and are capable of withstanding its impending hazards. The school officials are responsible

of delivering instructions about proper actions that should be taken in times of calamities. To effectively

achieve the expected response during calamities, the school administration and personnel must take proper

measures stated in the resource manual. Implement, practice and internalize the safety guidelines indicated

to ensure the safety of the whole school community before, during and after every disaster that might

happen.
In this regard, examining the capacity of the Jaime Cardinal Sin building in Paco Catholic School

to withstand earthquakes would contribute to the school’s preparation and formulation of risk reduction

plan in anticipation of the Big One.

Common questions

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Key steps in earthquake preparation and risk management for educational institutions include integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) education into the school curriculum at all educational levels, conducting earthquake drills, and developing school-specific earthquake evacuation plans. There is also a need for orientation and training for public sector employees as part of the mandatory requirements set by agencies such as DepEd and CHED. Community-based disaster risk management programs, which emphasize the role of educational institutions and students as vulnerable yet potent agents in disaster management, are critical. Preparations further include decentralizing school building construction to ensure compliance with standard designs that consider hazard resilience, such as soil stability, wind forces, and flood resistance .

Public sector organizations in the Philippines, including DepEd, CHED, TESDA, and DILG-BFP, have integrated disaster risk reduction education through mandatory training for public employees and the incorporation of DRRM into school curricula at secondary and tertiary levels. Programs include the National Service Training Program (NSTP) covering DRRM across formal, non-formal, and technical-vocational education. Despite these efforts, challenges remain in ensuring consistent implementation, updating educational materials to reflect current risk profiles and best practices, and addressing the variability in resource allocation and infrastructure between urban and rural educational settings .

Design considerations for public school buildings in the Philippines to withstand disasters include the standard building plan and the special building plan. The standard plan recommends a classroom size of 7m by 9m, suitable for urban areas, with a student-to-classroom ratio of 1:45. Essential architectural elements should include solid cemented flooring, finished walls, weather-proof roofing, two access doors, and a cathedral-type ceiling. The special building plan incorporates additional considerations like soil stability, wind forces, and flood resistance to ensure that structures remain hazard-resilient. These criteria are set to ensure that even in disaster-prone areas, school buildings possess the durability to protect the occupants .

Earthquakes occur due to the movement of tectonic plates, which form Earth's crust and top of the mantle. These plates are like a puzzle covering the Earth's surface, constantly moving, sliding past, and bumping into each other. The rough edges of these plates, known as plate boundaries, get stuck while the rest of the plate keeps moving. When the stress builds up enough for the edge to unstick, an earthquake occurs. The process involves slipping along faults, which are fractures in the Earth's surface, starting from a point below the surface called the hypocenter. The movement releases energy which causes the ground to shake .

The NDRRMC, established under Republic Act 10121, is effective in managing disaster risks by serving as a central coordinating body that brings together government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private sectors. It operates under the Department of National Defense and is responsible for policy-making, guiding disaster preparedness and response efforts. The NDRRMC conducts studies on hazards specific to the Philippines, provides community guidelines, and runs educational seminars to empower local communities. Its effectiveness is contingent on its ability to foster collaboration and ensure that policies are implemented at regional and local levels. However, challenges include resource limitations, varying regional capacities, and the need for ongoing system and capacity enhancements to address emerging disaster risks .

Legislation plays a pivotal role in defining and enforcing DRRM policies in the Philippines. Starting with Presidential Decree No. 1566 in 1978, the legal framework has evolved to include Republic Act No. 10121, which extensively redefines DRRM by incorporating comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability and enhancing disaster resilience. This Act mandates the inclusion of various stakeholders and establishes the National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Council (NDRRMC) to coordinate efforts. Legislation ensures a structured approach to disaster risk management, implementing mandatory educational curriculums, and improving infrastructural resilience. While it provides a robust framework, effectiveness hinges on consistent enforcement and adaptation to new challenges and threats .

If 'The Big One' strikes Metro Manila, it is expected to cause catastrophic damage, with a potential magnitude of 7.2. The earthquake could result in the deaths of up to 34,000 people and injure 100,000 others due to building collapses. Additionally, the National Capital Region (NCR) may become isolated from nearby provinces due to infrastructure collapse, affecting roads and buildings similar to the Baguio earthquake in 1990. This isolation would severely impact emergency response and recovery efforts .

Community involvement is of crucial importance to ensuring the safety of schools during disasters. The Department of Education underscores that no school can be deemed safe without the active participation of its host community, and conversely, no community is safe if its schools are not secure. Therefore, the DepEd provides a Disaster Risk Reduction Resource Manual containing comprehensive safety guidelines tailored for schools. These guidelines are intended to prepare and protect the school community by effectively responding to calamities. School officials are tasked with ensuring these guidelines are implemented, practiced, and internalized to safeguard the school community before, during, and after disasters .

The Philippines is vulnerable to natural disasters due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire and the typhoon belt of the Pacific Ocean, exposing it to earthquakes and typhoons. This vulnerability led to the early establishment of legal structures for disaster management with the Civilian Emergency Administration in 1941 and later, Presidential Decree No. 1566 in 1978. This decree created the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) to coordinate disaster preparedness. Over time, this structure evolved into the National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Council (NDRRMC), established by Republic Act 10121 of 2009, which integrates various government, non-government, and private organizations to improve coping strategies and reduce disaster risk. The emphasis is on ensuring community preparedness through guidelines, seminars, and practical safety measures .

Community-based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) plays a critical role in the Philippines' disaster risk reduction strategies by focusing on localized, participatory approaches to disaster management. It emphasizes empowering communities to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their capacity to manage disaster risks. CBDRM's importance stems from its ability to tailor strategies to specific community needs, ensure local engagement, and leverage indigenous knowledge and practices in reducing risk. Its implementation involves training local actors, developing community-specific disaster response plans, and integrating these efforts with the national framework led by the NDRRMC. The approach acknowledges that communities are not only front-line victims but also key agents in effectively responding to disasters .

Chapter II: Review of Related Literature 
 
This chapter contains the literature and related studies from books, dissertation
The Big One 
According to Philstar, (2017/02/14) there will be an upcoming earthquake that could hit Metro 
Manila and its ne
implementations were made. The Republic Act No. 10121 (Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and 
Management of 2010) defined Di
(NSTP), whether private or public, including formal and nonformal, technical-vocational, indigenous 
learning, and out-of-sch
should follow should consider the following: soil stability, wind forces, and floods, making sure the 
structures are hazard-
In this regard, examining the capacity of the Jaime Cardinal Sin building in Paco Catholic School 
to withstand earthquakes w

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