USP

Yield per recruit models

Yield per recruit models

Objectives

Since maximizing effort does not maximize catch, the question is if there is an optimum fishing rate that would lead to a maximum yield. The principal purpose of yield per recruit models is to get an idea of the effect of selection pattern and fishing mortality on the yield from a fixed number of individuals that enters the fishery. They often provide reference points for management purposes. They are also informative in providing information on the contribution of a fixed number of individuals to the spawning component of the population (Spawning stock per recruit models).

Type of models

Age based

Necessitates being able to age the fish Necessitates being able to determine accurately the growth rate of a fish. Age needs thus to be known indirectly.

Length based

Biomass development of a year class

After hatching the numbers in one cohort can only decline After hatching the individuals that remain in a cohort generally increase in size with age. The biomass of a cohort at any one time (t) is:

Biomasst = Numberst x mean weightt Number of fish in the beginning Growth rate Natural mortality rate Selection pattern in the fishery Overall fishing mortality

What determines the biomass of a cohort is:

Development of an unfished cohort

1200
Weight N Biomass

160 140 120

Numbers, Weight (g)

1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10

Biomass (kg)

100 80 60 40 20 0 15 20 Time/age

Development of a cohort

The biomass of a cohort generally increases with age to a certain maximum, thereafter the biomass decreases with age

At young age, despite high abundance the weight of the individuals is generally very low, the product of the two resulting in low biomass. As the individual increase in weight the biomass increases up to a maximum the loss of biomass weight due to mortality is countered by gain in biomass of the remaining growing individual. Above a certain maximum biomass weight the biomass loss due to mortality is greater than the biomass gain from the sum of the growth of the remaining individuals.

Development of a fished cohort

F = M = 0.2

1200

160 140 120

Numbers, Weight (g)

1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 Time/age 15 20

Biomass (kg)

100 80 60 40 20 0

The effect of fishing

The effect of fishing on a cohort of a certain fixed initial size results in lowering of the biomass! In general the biomass peaks at a younger age and fewer individuals from the cohort reach older age

Note that the sum of the standing biomass and the yield in the catches are not equivalent to the sum of the standing biomass under unfished state. Note density independence:

Growth rate of the individual Natural mortality

Natural mortality is here the same for all age groups, although that can easily be modified if (g)estimates available

USP

Age based yield per recruit models

Russel 1930: The first calculation

Higher effort Lower effort
years

Sock

weight

Catch

10

The calculation by Russel

Catch rate (%) Natural mortality (%) Total mortality (%) tc Weight 0.042 0.082 0.175 0.283 0.400 0.523 0.700 0.850 0.925 0.990 1.000 Age 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Totals

0.8 0 0.8 1 Catch Catch N (number) (weight) 1000 200 800 66 40 160 28 8 32 9 2 6 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1250 1000 106

0.5 0 0.5 1 Catch Catch N (number) (weight) 1000 500 500 41 250 250 44 125 125 35 63 63 25 31 31 16 16 16 11 8 8 7 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1999 999 186

11

Russels conclusions

Increase in exploitation rate does not necessarily mean increase in yield Different effort/fishing mortality affect both stock size and catch Different effort/fishing mortality affect the size composition of the stock and the catch Increasing effort results in fewer individuals in a stock becoming large and old Increase effort results in individuals in the catch become smaller and lighter

12

From Russel to mathematical models

Russel assumptions:

Natural mortality zero

Conclusions reasonable if F>>M Effectively his calculation is limited to exploring how one obtains the best yield from a given fixed number of fish caught

Ignored different vulnerability to the fishing gear of different sized/aged animals

Analytical methods were derived in the 1950s taking on board the limitation above.

13

Length based Y/R models

Minimum data needed:

K and L Relationship between length and weight Some likely values of natural mortality Selection pattern in the fishery maturity at length (to estimate Spawning Potential) Effectively the same as in the age based yield per recruit

Often also have:

The algorithm

In length based Y/R the inverse VBGF acts is used to convert length to time, the rest of the model algorithm is then the same as in the age based models

The general conclusion when using length based models

Principally the same as in the age based yield per recruit

14

The step by step guide

INPUT F-oldest Age 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 . 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 62.55 62.99 63.42 63.85 2.7500 2.8135 2.8770 2.9405 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2 2 1 1 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RESULTS 1.000 Length 20.00 21.09 22.17 23.23 24.27 25.30 26.31 27.31 28.29 Weight 0.0655 0.0779 0.0917 0.1069 0.1235 0.1414 0.1608 0.1817 0.2039 M 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Sel 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 Biomass Summation 551 Fay 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 N Biomass 1000 65 959 75 920 84 881 94 844 104 807 114 771 124 736 134 701 143 Catch 382 Catch 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 Yield 263 Yield 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1

At each time step calculate:

The stock size The catches The biomass The yield Sum the latter

t t Nt t Nt e t Ft M t Ct Ft Ft M t 1 e Nt Bt Nt wt Yt Ct wt two for the whole life time of the cohort

t M

15

The effect of changing fishing mortality

INPUT F-oldest Age 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 . 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 INPUT F-oldest Age 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 . 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 62.55 62.99 63.42 63.85 2.7500 2.8135 2.8770 2.9405 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2 2 1 1 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62.55 62.99 63.42 63.85 1.000 Length 20.00 21.09 22.17 23.23 24.27 25.30 26.31 27.31 28.29 Weight 0.0655 0.0779 0.0917 0.1069 0.1235 0.1414 0.1608 0.1817 0.2039 M 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Sel 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 2.7500 2.8135 2.8770 2.9405 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 RESULTS Summation Fay 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 43 41 38 36 119 115 111 106 Biomass 551 1 1 1 1 Catch 382 Catch 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 2 2 2 2 Yield 263 Yield 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 RESULTS 0.200 Length 20.00 21.09 22.17 23.23 24.27 25.30 26.31 27.31 28.29 Weight 0.0655 0.0779 0.0917 0.1069 0.1235 0.1414 0.1608 0.1817 0.2039 M 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Sel 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 Biomass Summation 1399 Fay 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 N Biomass 1000 65 960 75 922 85 886 95 850 105 816 115 784 126 752 137 721 147 Catch 165 Catch 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Yield 207 Yield 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

N Biomass 1000 65 959 75 920 84 881 94 844 104 807 114 771 124 736 134 701 143

16

The effect of changes in fishing mortality

300

3000

250

2500

Y/R

SSB/R 150 1500

100

1000

50

500

0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Fishing mortality

Biomass per recruit

200

2000

Yield/Recuit

17

The yield per recruit calculation is species specific

60

700

50

Y/R B/R

600

500 40 400 30 300 20 200

10

100

0 0.00 0.11 0.21 0.31 0.41 0.51 0.61 0.71 0.81 0.91 1.01 1.11 1.21 1.31 1.41 1.51 1.61 1.71 1.81 1.91

USP

Case example: Icelandic cod (age based)

19

The output of the analysis

Input Output
pa 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.32 0.57 0.78 0.89 0.95 0.96 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 fa 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.32 0.59 0.85 1.04 1.22 1.18 1.13 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 M 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Way Way(SSB) 100 100 400 499 1265 1101 1784 1634 2595 2410 3617 3525 4901 4852 6207 6284 7469 7675 8990 9370 10645 11313 12261 13063 13931 14402 15587 15587 16637 16637 18588 18588 18768 18768 20509 20509

age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

age 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Na Na(SSB) 1.492 0.000 1.222 0.000 1.000 0.032 0.793 0.096 0.567 0.181 0.362 0.206 0.208 0.162 0.110 0.098 0.054 0.051 0.027 0.026 0.014 0.014 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Ca 0.000 0.000 0.029 0.091 0.113 0.099 0.067 0.040 0.019 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Ya (g) SSBa (g) 0 0 0 0 36 35 163 157 293 436 358 725 329 786 250 619 143 391 83 242 47 154 29 93 19 55 11 31 6 16 3 9 2 5 1 3 Y SSB 1.77 3.76 kg

M: Natural mortality Wa: Weight in the catch Wa (SSB): Weight of mature fish pa: Proportion of fish mature fa: fishing patter

Na: Number of fish alive at age a Na: (SSB): Number of mature fish alive Ca: Catch in numbers Ya: Catch in weight SSBa: Spawning stock weight

20

Icelandic cod: The yield from one fish

2.0 1.8
Yield per recruit (kg)

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 F5-10 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

1. No fishing, no catch 2. Yield increases dramatically as fishing mortality increases 3. Maximum yield obtained at some F, defined as Fmax 4. Yield falls slowly (and sometimes not at all) as F increases above Fmax 5. If F becomes very high, the yield is equal to the youngest fish entering the fisheries

21

Another example

Y/R models are stock specific

22

The shape of the yield per recruit curve

The shape of the yield per recruit curve depends on the combined effect of weight increase of the cohort due to growth of surviving fish and weight loss of the cohort due to decline in numbers (mortality).

When fishing mortality is very high (Finf) all the fish in the cohort are caught in the first time period (year/month) that they enter the fisheries. In this case the Y/R is equivalent to the mean weight of the individual fish at that time. With lower fishing mortality more fish remain in the stock for a longer time and individuals are caught at a later and larger size. The reduction in fishing mortality from very high to some moderate level result in some gain in yield since although more fish have died because of natural reasons the weight increase of remaining fish weighs up the biomass loss due to the former process. If fishing mortality is very low, the biomass loss of the cohort due to natural mortality is greater than the biomass increase do the growth of the remaining individuals. The extreme case is if F=0, then the Yield = 0!

23

Reference points: Fmax

The maximum yield

Y/R at Fmax 2.0

1.8
Yield per recruit (kg)

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 F5-10 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Fmax

24

Reference points: F0.1

The yield at 10% of the slope at the origin

2.0 Yield at Fk 1.8

Yield per recruit (kg)

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

Slope at origin

10% of slope at origin Fk

0.4 0.5 F5-10 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

25

Fmax or Fk?
2.0 1.8
Yield per recruit (kg)

25
Spawning stock per recruit (kg)

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 F5-10

20

15

10

Fk

Fmax

26

Effect of fishing mortality on catch and stock

Often observe that once effort reaches as certain level, increase in effort does not result in increased yield Changes in effort may however affect the amount of fish that is left to spawn. Thus lowing of effort from Fmax to F0.1 results in some slight loss in yield. The increase in the contribution to spawning is however almost 50%

The 0.1 reference value is an arbitrary value

In some cases fishing mortality reference points have been defined from SSR/R analysis. E.g.

FSPR30%: Fishing mortality where there spawning stock per recruit is 30% of that what is obtained under no fishing (F=0).

Catch composition
27
> 14 kg 12-14 kg 10-12 kg 8-10 kg 6-8 kg 4-6 kg 2-4 kg < 2 kg

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Spawning stock composition

28
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

0%

10%

20% 0% 30% 10%

20%

30%0%

10%

20%

30%

15

10

0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

29

Catch and stock composition

Although the total yield may not change much under different effort we observe a change in the catch composition:

Moderate effort normally results in yield that is composed of number of age classes at any one time (if generations overlap)

The effort has profound effect on the stock size and also stock composition:

Moderate effort results in stock size that is composed of a number of age classes at any one time (if long lived)

USP

Effect of different values

31

Changing the fishing pattern

1 year 1.0 0.9 0.8
Fishing pattern

2 year

3 year

4 year

5 year

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Age / size

32

Effect of selection patterns

1 year 1.4 1.2
Yield per recruit (kg)

2 year

3 year

4 year

5 year

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 F5-10 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
1. 2. Increasing the age at entry into the fisheries results in higher yield Irrespective of the age of entry into the fishery, high yield is generally obtained at intermediated fishing mortality

33

Effect of change in growth (mean weight at age)

Cod
12 10
Mean weight (kg)

6 year

7 year

8 year

9 year

10 year

8 6 4 2 0 1920

1928-1949
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

1978-1999
1980 1990 2000

34

Cod: Mean weight at age over two periods

28-49 25 20
Mean weight (kg)

78-99

15 10 5 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Age

35

Effect of different mean weight

28-49 2.0 1.8
Yield per recruit (kg)

78-99

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 F5-10 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
1. Higher weight/growth higher yield 2. Moderate effort gives higher yield irrespective of growth

36

The effect of M on yield

M=0.30 3.5 3.0
Yield per recruit (kg)
1. Lower M, higher yield 2. Lower M, maximum yield obtained at lower F 3. Difference in yield decreases as F increases 4. Generally obtain higher yield at moderate F

M=0.25

M=0.20

M=0.15

M=0.1

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 F5-10

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

37

Length based Y/R models

Minimum data needed:

K and L Relationship between length and weight Some likely values of natural mortality Effectively the same as in the age based yield per recruit

The algorithm

In length based Y/R the inverse VBGF acts is used to convert length to time, the rest of the model algorithm is then the same as in the age based models

The general conclusion when using length based models

Principally the same as in the age based yield per recruit

38

Limitation of yield per recruit model

There is normally no density dependency in the model

The weight at age is constant irrespective of stock size The natural mortality is constant irrespective of stock size The conclusions drawn are often highly dependent on the assumption of natural mortality.

Natural mortality is generally unknown

Does not take into account potential effect population crash at high fishing mortality Is a single species model and is thus if used only applicable as a management tool for single species fisheries

39

Multi-species yield per recruit

YF: Yellow tail flounder AC: Atlantic cod H: Haddock WF: Winter flounder

Single species Emax