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Probability of Sample Proportions

This document discusses sampling distributions of sample proportions and means. It provides examples of using the normal distribution to calculate probabilities related to sample proportions and means. For sample proportions, it shows how to calculate the standard error and z-score to find the probability that a sample proportion is above or below a given value. For sample means, it demonstrates a similar process of finding the standard error and z-score to calculate probabilities about where a sample mean might fall. Practice problems apply these techniques to real-world examples involving political polls, production times, and GPA data.

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Olaolu Joseph
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19 views6 pages

Probability of Sample Proportions

This document discusses sampling distributions of sample proportions and means. It provides examples of using the normal distribution to calculate probabilities related to sample proportions and means. For sample proportions, it shows how to calculate the standard error and z-score to find the probability that a sample proportion is above or below a given value. For sample means, it demonstrates a similar process of finding the standard error and z-score to calculate probabilities about where a sample mean might fall. Practice problems apply these techniques to real-world examples involving political polls, production times, and GPA data.

Uploaded by

Olaolu Joseph
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Unit 8: Linking Probability to Statistical Inference

Module 19 – Distribution of sample proportions and means

1. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion


Example:
Recall that a 2007 report by the Pew Research Center stated that about 10% of the
3.1 million 18- to 24-year-olds in the United States were enrolled in a community
college. Let’s suppose we randomly selected 100 young adults in this age group and
found that 15% of the sample was enrolled in a community college.
What is the probability that a random sample of this size has 15% or more enrolled
in a community college?
Solution:
Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 & (1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 100 𝑝= 0.10 and 𝑝̂ = 0.15

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 100 * 0.1 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 (1 − 𝑝) = 100*0.9 = 90

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard error =
√ p(1− p)
n
=
√
0.1×(1−0.1)
100
=0.03

0.15−0.10 0.05
Z= = =1.67

√ 0.1×(1−0.1) 0.03
100

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

P ( ^p ≥ 0.15| p=0.10¿=P ( Z ≥1.67 )=0.0475

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that it is true that 10% of the population (3.1 million) of 18- to 24-
year-olds are enrolled at a community college, then it is unusual to see a random sample of 100
with 15% or more enrolled. The probability is as low as about 0.0475.
Practice Question 1: the 2008 presidential election, newspapers reported that Obama received
40% of the white male vote. If this is true, what is the probability that a random sample of 200
white male voters had less than 35% voting for Obama?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 &(1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 200 𝑝 = 0.40 and 𝑝̂ = 0.35

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 200 * 0.40 = 80 𝑎𝑛𝑑 (1 − 𝑝) = 200 * 0.60 = 120

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using


Standard error =
√
p(1− p)
n
=
√
0. 40×(1−0. 40)
2 00
=0.0346

0.3 5−0. 4 0 −0.05


Z= = =−1.445

√ 0. 40 ×(1−0. 40) 0.03 46


2 00

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

P ( ^p < 0.3 5| p=0. 4 0 ¿=P ( Z ←1. 445 )=0. 0743

Step4: Conclusion: The chance that a random sample of 200 white males will have, at
most, 35% of them supporting Obama if 40% of this population supports Obama is
0.0742 which is about 7.42%.
Practice Question 2:
Suppose it is known that 43% of Americans own an iPhone. If a random sample of 50
Americans were surveyed, what is the probability that the proportion of the sample
who owned an iPhone is between 45% and 50%?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 10 &(1 − 𝑝) ≥ 10)

𝑛 = 50 𝑝= 0.43 and 𝑝̂1 = 0.45 𝑝̂2 = 0.50

𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑: 𝑛𝑝 = 50*0.43 = 21.5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 (1 − 𝑝) = 50*0.57 = 28.5

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using

Standard error =
n √
p(1− p)
=
√
0. 43× 0.57
50
=0. 07

( )
0.45−0.43 p−^p 0.50−0.43
P ( 0.45< ^p <0.50 ) =p < <

√
0.07 p(1− p) 0.07
n
¿ p ( 0.2857< Z<1 ) =0.8413−0.6126=0.2287

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that the true proportion of Americans who own an iPhone
is 43%, then there would be a 22.87% chance that we would see a sample proportion
between 45% and 50% when the sample size is 50 that own an iPhone.
2. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
Example:
When a production machine is properly calibrated, it requires an average of 25
seconds per unit produced, with a standard deviation of 3 seconds. For a simple
random sample of n = 36 units, the sample mean is found to be 26.2 seconds per
unit. When the machine is properly calibrated, what is the probability that the
mean for a simple random sample of this size will be at least 26.2 seconds?

Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛 ≥ 30)

𝑥̅ = 26.2 𝜇= 25 and 𝜎 =3

𝑛 = 36 which is greater than 30, therefore, the normality condition is met

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using


Standard Error:
σ 3
σ X= = =0.5
√ n √36
X−μ 26.2−25
Z= = =2.4 0
σ 0.5
√n
Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model
P ( X ≥26.2 ) =P ( Z ≥ 2.40 )=0.0082

Step4: Conclusion: Provided that a production machine is properly calibrated, the probability
that the mean for a simple random sample of this size 36 will be at least 26.2 seconds is about
0.0082
Practice:
The numerical population of grade point averages at a college has mean
2.61 and standard deviation 0.5 if a random sample of size 100 is taken from the
population, what is the probability that the sample mean will be between 2.51 and
2.71
Step1: State given information & Check normality conditions (𝑛 ≥ 30 )

𝑥̅1 =2.51 𝑥̅2 = 2.71 𝜇= 2.61 and 𝜎 = 0.5

𝑛 =100 which is also greater than 30; hence, the normality condition is obeyed.

Step2: Find the Standard Error & Z-score by using


σ 0.5
Standard Error: σ X = = =0.05
√ n √100

( )
2.51−2.61 X −μ 2.71−2.61
P ( 2.51< X <2.71 )= p < <
0.05 σ 0.05
√n
¿ p (−2<Z <2 )

Step3: Find the probability using the standard normal model

¿ p (−2<Z <2 )=0.9773−0.0228=0.9545

Step4: Conclusion: if a random sample of size 100 is taken from the population of grade point
averages at the college, the probability that the sample mean will be between 2.51 and 2.71 is
about 0.9544 which is 95.4%

Common questions

Powered by AI

A sample proportion significantly higher or lower than the population proportion suggests it may be an outlier or caused by random sampling variability. A low probability of this occurrence indicates it is an unusual result under normal conditions .

To check if the normality conditions are met, verify that both np ≥ 10 and n(1-p) ≥ 10, where n is the sample size and p is the proportion of interest. If this condition is met, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be approximated using a normal distribution .

With a true support of 40%, the probability that a random sample of 200 white males would show less than 35% support is about 0.0742, indicating that such a sample result is not highly probable .

Given a mean of 2.61, standard deviation of 0.5, and a sample size of 100, calculate Standard Error = σ/√n = 0.05. This converts the interval to Z-scores: (2.51-2.61)/0.05 and (2.71-2.61)/0.05, resulting in Z-scores of -2 and 2. Use normal distributions to find P(-2 < Z < 2) = 0.9545 .

A probability of 0.0082 suggests that it is highly unlikely for the mean time to produce a unit to be at least 26.2 seconds when the machine is properly calibrated, as this low probability indicates a rare event under normal circumstances .

Checking the conditions np ≥ 10 and n(1-p) ≥ 10 ensures the sample size is large enough for the sampling distribution to approximate normality. This is crucial for reliable probability calculations using the standard normal model .

In the given scenario, where 10% of the young adult population is actually enrolled in a community college, the probability that a sample of 100 young adults will show 15% or more enrolled is approximately 0.0475, indicating such an occurrence is unusual .

Firstly, check normality conditions. Then calculate the standard error as √(p(1-p)/n). Then, convert the sample proportions to Z-scores using the formula Z = (p̂ - p) / standard error. Calculate the probabilities using the Z-score table and subtract to find the range probability: 0.8413-0.6126=0.2287, indicating a 22.87% chance .

To calculate the Z-score for a sample mean, use the formula Z = (X̄ - μ) / (σ/√n), where X̄ is the sample mean, μ is the population mean, σ is the standard deviation, and n is the sample size. This standardizes the sample mean, allowing probability calculations from the normal distribution .

A probability of 0.0475 indicates that the sample outcome is rare and statistically unusual if the stated conditions of the population are true, occurring only about 4.75% of the time under repeated sampling from the population .

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