GRANO PANIFICABILE – feb. 2011 MATIF: 259.
5
COLZA – mar. 2011 MATIF: 514.75
Daily Canola Report
By Ed White, Winnipeg bureau
Posted: May 31, 2011 - 2:30 p.m. CST
Canola futures were mixed Tuesday with old crop down, but new crop higher on
continued seeding difficulties in the eastern Prairies.
Russia’s return to the wheat export market July 1 pushed wheat lower, but spring wheat
futures fell less than winter wheat because of concerns about seeding delays in the eastern
Canadian Prairies and North Dakota.
After markets closed the USDA reported that 68 percent of U.S. spring wheat had been
planted, compared to the five-year average of 95 percent. Only 55 percent of North
Dakota’s wheat crop was seeded.
In canola, 40 percent was seeded in the state, down from 90 percent.
The situation was worse for durum in the state, where only 17 percent was planted, down
from the normal 86 percent.
Also, traders had expected 89 percent of corn across the U.S. to be seeded, but the
number came in at 86 percent.
Traders had expected Russia would end export restrictions, but some thought they’d wait
until after the harvest was in. The early removal of the ban could mean Russia might be
able to export as much as 13 million tonnes of wheat. The U.S. Department of
Agriculture had forecast it to export 10 million tonnes.
Wheat was also pressured by rain in Western Europe, which has been suffering drought.
Oil World has updated its forecast for Germany’s rapeseed crop. It now spots it at 4.65
million, down from 5.7 million last year and said it could slip to 4.4 million if the drought
continues.
Oil World puts the European rapeseed crop at 19.2 million tonnes, down 1.4 million from
last year.
Dow Jones reported the Pakistan recently bought two cargos of Canadian canola totaling
100,000 tonnes at about $678 basis cost and freight. One ship sailed this month and the
other will go in June.
European officials met in Vienna to sketch out options for a second bailout package for
debt-burdened Greece.
Stronger crude oil prices supported grains.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jul 11 $589.50, down $1.30
Canola Nov 11 $594.10, up 50 cents
Canola Jan 12 $602.20, up $1.80
Canola Mar 12 $608.50, up $4.20
The previous day’s best basis was $18 under the July contract according to ICE Futures
Canada in Winnipeg.
The July contract’s 14-day Relative Strength Index was 59. The rule of thumb is an RSI
of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market
French analysts Agritel have today forecast 2011 wheat output to fall by 11.5% to
31.7Mt. The reduction in production is seen as a direct consequence from the prolonged
period of dry weather that the country has seen over the past 3 months. Yields in France
in 2011 are forecast 13% lower at 6.31t/ha, down from 7.25t/ha a year ago; the lower
yields greatly outweigh a 2% increase in planted area at 5Mha.
In Germany, again due to the recent dry weather, 2011 production is also forecast
lower. The German Farm Co-Operatives Association puts 2011 total grain production at
40.7Mt, down from 44.2Mt in 2010 and 44.1Mt forecast in April.
For rapeseed, the German crop is forecast to fall by 22.6% from a year ago to 4.4Mt;
forecasts in April put the 2011 rapeseed crop at 5.1Mt. Also in Germany, it has been
announced that a central German crushing mill with capacity for 1.1Mt of rapeseed will
re-open in August after closing due to fire damage in April 2010, and will have the ability
to process seed from the 2011 harvest.
The impact of the potential lower EU crops is uncertain in global terms as availabilities
of Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports may increase in 2011/12 after the drought hit
2010 harvest led to an export ban. In Russia it is reported that exporters are already
making modest purchases of wheat in the expectation that the export ban may be lifted
once the Russian harvest is underway and domestic requirements are met.
The dry weather is likely to continue to influence European grain market over the coming
days as little rain is forecast for the parched lands. For rapeseed, tighter supplies and
continued demand is likely to keep the domestic European balance tight and increase the
EU's reliance on imports mainly from Russia, Ukraine and Australia.