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Machine Learning for E-commerce Sales

The document provides details about a machine learning hackathon problem statement for an ecommerce company. The goal is to analyze user data from the past year to identify if a user will make a purchase or not during an upcoming sales event. The data includes features like page visit types, metrics, operating system, and whether a purchase was made. Participants will build a machine learning model on the training data to predict purchases for the test data to help the company target customers.

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biswasingh88
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
93 views1 page

Machine Learning for E-commerce Sales

The document provides details about a machine learning hackathon problem statement for an ecommerce company. The goal is to analyze user data from the past year to identify if a user will make a purchase or not during an upcoming sales event. The data includes features like page visit types, metrics, operating system, and whether a purchase was made. Participants will build a machine learning model on the training data to predict purchases for the test data to help the company target customers.

Uploaded by

biswasingh88
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Machine Learning Hackathon

Problem Statement
You are a data scientist at Megakkart the largest ecommerce platform in the country. Owing to the
festive season Megakkart is planning a ‘Super Festive Sale’ where it wants to achieve a GMV sales
of INR 5000 crores. You are being provided with the user data for the past one year on various
parameters mentioned below. You need to identify whether the user on the web portal will make a
purchase or not. The company plans to work on various hooks for the customers who are at a risk of
not making a purchase. Your analysis and machine learning model will help the product team to plan
these hooks.

Data Description
• "Administrative", "Administrative Duration", "Informational", "Informational Duration",
"Product Related" and "Product Related Duration" represent the number of different types
of pages visited by the visitor in that session and total time spent in each of these page
categories. The values of these features are derived from the URL information of the pages
visited by the user and updated in real time when a user takes an action, e.g. moving from one
page to another.
• The "Bounce Rate", "Exit Rate" and "Page Value" features represent the metrics
measured by "Google Analytics" for each page in the e-commerce site.
• The value of "Bounce Rate" feature for a web page refers to the percentage of visitors who
enter the site from that page and then leave ("bounce") without triggering any other requests
to the analytics server during that session.
• The value of "Exit Rate" feature for a specific web page is calculated as for all pageviews to
the page, the percentage that were the last in the session.
• The "Page Value" feature represents the average value for a web page that a user visited
before completing an e-commerce transaction.
• The "Special Day" feature indicates the closeness of the site visiting time to a specific
special day (e.g., Mother’s Day, Valentine's Day) in which the sessions are more likely to be
finalized with transaction. The value of this attribute is determined by considering the
dynamics of e-commerce such as the duration between the order date and delivery date. For
example, for Valentine’s Day, this value takes a nonzero value between February 2 and
February 12, zero before and after this date unless it is close to another special day, and its
maximum value of 1 on February 8.
• The dataset also includes operating system, browser, region, traffic type, visitor type as
returning or new visitor, a Boolean value indicating whether the date of the visit is weekend,
and month of the year.
• Revenue is the target variables which represents whether a customer completed a purchase
during the sessions. 1 represents purchase and 0 represents no purchase made.

Data Files
• [Link] – training data with 40,000 records | 18 features | 1 target (Revenue)
• [Link] – test data with 10,000 records | 18 features
• sample_submission.csv – sample file to be used as template for submission of predictions

Common questions

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The 'Special Day' feature is designed to capture temporal factors affecting consumer behavior in relation to specific events, such as Valentine's Day, impacting their purchasing decisions . Its inclusion in a predictive model allows data scientists to account for increased likelihood of purchases around these special times, as consumer intent to buy is often higher. By quantifying this proximity, it helps predict if a customer is more likely to make a purchase due to urgency or relevance connected to these events, making it an important variable in understanding and forecasting sales trends.

Bounce Rate and Exit Rate are crucial metrics that can significantly affect sales performance. A high Bounce Rate indicates that users are leaving the site quickly without engaging further, which can suggest issues with the landing page or the initial user experience . An elevated Exit Rate might imply that users are leaving at critical conversion points, possibly indicating checkout problems or unappealing product pages . Therefore, reducing these rates can potentially increase conversion rates and overall sales performance, especially during high-traffic sale events like the 'Super Festive Sale'. This requires optimization of page content, usability, and the purchasing process itself.

Incorporating data on 'Operating System', 'Browser', 'Region', and 'Traffic Type' helps Megakkart understand market segments more deeply and tailor their strategies effectively. Different operating systems and browsers may have various compatibility issues, influencing user experiences, while regional data can reveal geographical trends and preferences . Understanding traffic types – organic, direct, referral, etc. – aids in identifying the most effective channels for customer acquisition. This comprehensive analysis equips the company to optimize technological, geographic, and channel-specific approaches, thereby increasing the likelihood of conversion.

These features provide insights on user behavior that are critical for crafting effective customer strategies during sales events. A high Bounce Rate suggests a need to revise entrance pages to retain users, while the Exit Rate could point toward optimizing final steps in the purchase funnel to prevent abandonment . Page Value indicates which pages contribute most to eventual transactions, guiding focus toward enhancing user experiences on these key pages. Leveraging these insights, marketers can refine targeted interventions to increase engagement and conversion rates during the sale, ensuring maximized impact.

Relying solely on weekend indicators could miss nuanced behavioral patterns tied to other temporal factors such as holidays, sales events, or unexpectedly high traffic days like Cyber Monday, which don't always align with weekends. Sole focus on weekends might also overlook weekday shopping increases due to personal schedules or preferences . Moreover, it could lead to oversimplified assumptions about transactional behavior, prevent contextual understanding, and result in underutilization of temporal data variability essential in richer predictive modeling.

'Page Value' measures the importance of a page in the pathway to conversion, providing insights about its role in the broader customer purchase journey . By analyzing which pages have high values, an e-commerce platform can identify the most critical pages that lead to purchases, highlighting which areas of the site drive revenue and engagement effectively. These pages can then be targeted for enhancement to improve user experience or optimize supporting content and offers, reinforcing their role as high converters and ensuring that the site encourages transactions effectively.

Identifying whether a visitor is 'new' or 'returning' is vital because their purchasing behaviors tend to differ. Returning visitors may have a higher likelihood of making a purchase as they are already familiar with the website, its products, and possibly have a developed trust with the brand . In contrast, new visitors might need more convincing or engagement before committing to a purchase. Consequently, predictive models can be enhanced by differentiating strategies for these two segments, such as personalized recommendations for returning visitors and introductory offers for newcomers, to optimize conversion rates during the sale.

The time spent on different types of web pages is indicative of user engagement and can influence purchase predictions by highlighting user interests and intentions . A longer 'Product Related Duration' suggests deeper engagement with the product offerings, possibly indicating higher purchase intent. On the other hand, 'Administrative Duration' and 'Informational Duration' can reflect back-end necessities or information gathering that might correlate differently with purchases . By analyzing these durations, one could infer the effectiveness of product details and administrative processes in influencing consumer decisions.

The 'Special Day' feature is crucial for capturing temporal demand spikes and fluctuations in online purchasing behavior linked to significant dates e.g., holidays that align with Megakkart's sales peaks . Incorporating this feature enables predictive models to leverage the shopping trends around these dates to accurately forecast spikes in purchasing activity and anticipate increased traffic. It also helps in strategizing targeted campaigns and promotions focused around these times, directly supporting sales objectives like achieving INR 5000 crores GMV during festive sales.

Considering both 'weekend' boolean values and monthly trends allows for a comprehensive analysis of temporal shopping patterns. While weekend data can provide insight into increases in leisure shopping, monthly trends capture broader seasonal effects and specific time-bound behaviors such as month-end payday effects or beginning-of-month buying power . Together, these insights aid in understanding and predicting consumer behavior more fully, ensuring the predictive model captures both immediate and broader cyclical influences. This dual approach helps in more accurately forecasting demands and tailoring marketing initiatives effectively throughout the year.

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