3 period weighted

Day Number Sold a. Two-period b. Four-period moving average

1 25
2 31
3 29 28
4 33 30 28.8
5 34 31 29.5 31.4
6 37 33.5 31.75 32.7
7 35 35.5 33.25 35.3
8 32 36 34.75 35.4
9 38 33.5 34.5 33.9
10 40 35 35.5 35.6
11 37 39 36.25 37.8
12 32 38.5 36.75 38.1
13 34.5 36.75 35.1

w1 0.2
w2 0.3
w3 0.5

w1 0.1
w2 0.2
w3 0.3
w4 0.4
4 period weighted Error Error
moving average alpha 0.85967 Error(ALPHA) (TWO PERIOD) (fOUR PERIOD)

25 36
30.15802 1.3410109978 1
29.1625 14.726368403 9
30.6 32.46148 2.3670299313 9 20.25
32.4 33.7841 10.342011553 12.25 27.5625
34.5 36.54871 2.3985117618 0.25 3.0625
35.2 35.21733 10.351217547 16 7.5625
34.1 32.45149 30.785986792 20.25 12.25
35.5 37.22138 7.7207426414 25 20.25
37.3 39.61008 6.8124969816 4 0.5625
37.6 37.36627 28.796873512 42.25 22.5625
35.7 32.75305
MSE 13.785659102 13.9 14.2578125
RMSE 3.7129044025 3.728270376461 3.775951866748
MAD
Error(3-PERIOD WEIGHTED) REGRESSION ERROR
29.2564102564 18.117028271 28.46969697 a 29.256410256
30.0431235431 0.9156125537 0.7867132867 b 30.043123543
30.8298368298 3.3483028238 30.82983683
17.64 31.6165501166 1.91393358 31.616550117
6.76000000000001 32.4032634033 2.5495677594 32.403263403
18.49 33.18997669 14.516277623 33.18997669
0.0899999999999983 33.9766899767 1.0471634038 33.976689977
11.56 34.7634032634 7.6363975962 34.763403263
16.81 35.5501165501 6.001928918 35.55011655
19.36 36.3368298368 13.418815644 36.336829837
0.639999999999995 37.1235431235 0.0152629034 37.123543124
37.21 37.9102564103 34.931130835 37.91025641

14.2844444444444 8.700951826
3.7794767421489 2.9497375859
 Passenger
Year
Period Vehicle Sales
1 2004 1061572 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2 2005 1143076
3 2006 1379979 Regression Statistics
4 2007 1549882 Multiple R 0.938724
5 2008 1552703 R Square 0.881203
6 2009 1951333 Adjusted R Square 0.872718
7 2010 2501542 Standard Error 269148
8 2011 2629839 Observations 16
9 2012 2665015
10 2013 2503509 ANOVA
11 2014 2601111 df SS MS F
12 2015 2789678 Regression 1 7.52E+12 7.52E+12 103.8485
13 2016 3047582 Residual 14 1.01E+12 7.24E+10
14 2017 3288581 Total 15 8.54E+12
15 2018 3377389
16 2019 2773575 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value
17 2020 3565383.225 a Intercept 1036663 141142.4 7.344798 3.649E-06
b X Variable 1 148748.3 14596.6 10.19061 7.39E-08

Intercept 1036662.525
slope 148748.27647
Significance F
7.39E-08

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
733942.1 1339383 733942.1 1339383
117441.7 180054.9 117441.7 180054.9
 Period(t) Dt Lt Tt Ft Error α
1 26 24.27 1.69 0.3675794
2 28 26.71 1.93 25.95 4.19
3 29 28.77 1.97 28.63 0.13
4 31 30.84 2.00 30.74 0.07
5 32 32.53 1.90 32.84 0.71
6 35 34.64 1.97 34.43 0.32
7 0 36.61
𝐹_(𝑡+1)=𝐿_𝑡+𝑇_𝑡 MSE 1.08
RMSE 1.0409940075
𝐿_𝑡= 〖𝛼𝐷〗 _𝑡+(1−𝛼)(𝐿_(𝑡−1)+𝑇_(𝑡−1) )
𝑇_𝑡=𝛽(𝐿_𝑡−𝐿_(𝑡−1) )+(1−𝛽) 𝑇_(𝑡−1)
 β
0.3233587 Dt
40

35
f(x) = 1.68571428571429 x + 24.2666666666667
30 R² = 0.978266978922716

25

20

15

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5 6 7
 a
3.72465986394558

Week Day Period (Days) Demand deseasonalized demand

1 Sun 1 2
1 Mon 2 3
1 Tue 3 5
1 Wed 4 12 4.4286
1 Thu 5 6 4.5714
1 Fri 6 2 4.7143
1 Sat 7 1 4.7143
2 Sun 8 3 5.0000
2 Mon 9 4 5.1429
2 Tue 10 5 5.2857
2 Wed 11 14 5.4286
2 Thu 12 7 5.4286
2 Fri 13 3 5.5714
2 Sat 14 2 5.8571
3 Sun 15 3 6.2857
3 Mon 16 5 6.2857
3 Tue 17 7 6.4286
3 Wed 18 17 6.5714
3 Thu 19 7
3 Fri 20 4
3 Sat 21 3
4 Sun 22
4 Mon 23
4 Tue 24
4 Wed 25
4 Thu 26
4 Fri 27
4 Sat 28
Step 1. Deseasonalize the demand:

d4 = (d1 +d2 +d3 +d4 +d5 +d6 +d7)/7 = (2+ 3+ 5+ 12+ 6+ 2+ 1)/7 = 4.4285.

possible to get an exact middle period. For example is the periodicity is 4, then the center lies
4. We would need to do the averaging slightly differently for deseasonalizing
Step 2. Trend Line Estimation from the Deseasonalized Data:

Step 3. Estimating the Seasonality Factors Associated with the Week_x0002_days:

The interpretation of the seasonality factor is how much the demand is shrunk or inflated due
effect of seasonality in a specific period. The seasonality factor is estimated as a
ratio of the actual demand and the fitted deseasonalized demand.
Si = Actual observed demand/ Fitted Deseasonalized Demand

Notice that the seasonality factors associated with each day of the week for
different weeks are similar but not exactly the same. To get one seasonality
factor for each day of the week we would take an average of the seasonality
factors for a day from all three weeks.

Step 4. Computing the Final Forecast:

b 3.72+0.156t
0.156632653061224

Fitted deseasonalized demand seasonality factors AVERAGE seasonality factor

3.88 0.515292261852598 0.537291329977507
4.04 0.742955818557048 0.774829728453602
4.19 1.19202075900097 1.07764304475976
4.35 2.7578659370725 2.64185887153557
4.51 1.33101939183581 1.20824704075407
4.66 0.428774565209465 0.510948937160867
4.82 0.207422040355581 0.324373650128695
4.98 0.602685435101985 0.537323283133747
5.13 0.779065915866181 0.774880299740798
5.29 0.945003375012054 1.07771617517917
5.45 2.56993006993007 2.6420507197307
5.60 1.24905167966498 1.20833791949926
5.76 0.520753380173584 0.510991587797719
5.92 0.337979594769363 0.324402787787589
6.07 0.493896292977937 0.537323283133747
6.23 0.802467450937577 0.774880299740798
6.39 1.09590500026626 1.07771617517917
6.54 2.59778060760415 2.6420507197307
6.70 1.04467005076142 1.20833791949926
6.86 0.583318866099551 0.510991587797719
7.01 0.427719315261142 0.324402787787589
7.17 0.537323283133747
7.33 0.774880299740798
7.48 1.07771617517917
7.64 2.6420507197307
7.80 1.20833791949926
7.95 0.510991587797719
8.11 0.324402787787589
y is 4, then the center lies between 3 and
onalizing

ek_x0002_days:

d is shrunk or inflated due to the

timated as a
Final Demand Forecast Error
2.08538481849433 0.007291 Demand
3.12870446303977 0.016565
4.52023606393788 0.230173 18

11.4952311612649 0.254792
Chart Title
16
5.44656395616112 0.306291 25
2.38329872440665 0.146918
14
1.56383405337555 0.317909
2.67464543776219 0.105856
20 12
3.97850956618617 0.000462
5.70218162006791 0.493059
10
14.3928858255806 0.154359
6.77182984035017 0.052062 15 8
2.9437634430374 0.003163
1.91965901378727 0.006455 6
3.26378203748383 0.069581
4.82811046625912 0.029546 10 4
6.88382042642507 0.013498
17.2897057218567 0.083929 2
8.09668605922971 1.20272
5 0
3.50402921965847 0.245987 0 5 10 15
2.27534349896866 0.525127
3.85291863720547
5.67771136633206 0
8.06545923278224 0 5 10 15

20.1865256181329 Demand Final Dem

9.42154227810926
4.06429499627955
2.63102798415006

MSE 0.203131
RMSE 0.4507

SUMMARY OUTPUT SS
6.869461
Regression Statistics 0.145505
Multiple R 0.989575 7.014966
R Square 0.979258
Adjusted R 0.977662
Standard Error
Standard E 0.105796 0.07472
Observatio 15 0.006322

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 13
Total 14

Coefficients

Intercept 3.72466
X Variable 0.156633
 Demand

Chart Title

10 15 20 25

10 15 20 25 30

Demand Final Demand Forecast

MS F Significance F
6.869461 613.7437 2.513E-12
0.011193
 t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
49.84843 3.119E-16 3.563238 3.886082 3.563238 3.886082
24.77385 2.513E-12 0.142974 0.170292 0.142974 0.170292
Period Week Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
6 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
10 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
11 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
12 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
13 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
15 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
17 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
18 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
19 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
20 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
21 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
22 4
23 4
24 4
25 4
26 4
27 4
28 4
 1.071+sun*w
Demand Regression Forecast
2 1.5952380952381 SUMMARY OUTPUT
3 2.92857142857143
5 4.5952380952381 Regression Statistics
12 13.2619047619048 Multiple R 0.996619
6 5.5952380952381 R Square 0.99325
2 1.92857142857143 Adjusted R Square 0.912692
1 0.92857142857143 Standard Error 0.712268
3 2.66666666666667 Observations 21
4 4
5 5.66666666666667 ANOVA
14 14.3333333333333 df SS MS F Significance F
7 6.66666666666667 Regression 8 970.4048 121.3006 239.0979 4.854E-12
3 3 Residual 13 6.595238 0.507326
2 2 Total 21 977
3 3.73809523809524
5 5.07142857142857 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
7 6.73809523809524 Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
17 15.4047619047619 X Variable 1 1.071429 0.190362 5.628383 8.223E-05 0.660177
7 7.73809523809524 Sun 0.52381 0.56041 0.93469 0.366986 -0.686882
4 4.07142857142857 Mon 1.857143 0.56041 3.313902 0.005596 0.646451
3 3.07142857142857 Tue 3.52381 0.56041 6.287917 2.798E-05 2.313118
4.80952380952381 wed 12.19048 0.56041 21.7528 1.313E-11 10.97978
6.14285714285714 thu 4.52381 0.56041 8.072326 2.026E-06 3.313118
7.80952380952381 Fri 0.857143 0.56041 1.529493 0.150105 -0.353549
16.4761904761905 Sat -0.142857 0.56041 -0.254916 0.802777 -1.353549
8.80952380952381
5.14285714285714 the overall
4.14285714285714 X Variable 1 demand is increasing by 1.0714 units every week.

The coefficients corresponding to the variables Sun, Mon, etc., (cre

variable day) can be interpreted as the additive effect for th
As an example, the forecast for the period corresponding to the Sun
= 1.0714 × W + 0.5238.
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
#N/A #N/A #N/A
1.48268 0.660177 1.48268
1.734501 -0.686882 1.734501
3.067834 0.646451 3.067834
4.734501 2.313118 4.734501
13.40117 10.97978 13.40117
5.734501 3.313118 5.734501
2.067834 -0.353549 2.067834
1.067834 -1.353549 1.067834

riables Sun, Mon, etc., (created from the categorical

as the additive effect for that particular day.
d corresponding to the Sunday of week W is DˆW,Sun
714 × W + 0.5238.
 Intercept 4.153875291
Slope 0.106774476

Fitted Average
qtr period Demand DD decentralized Seasonality Seasonality Final Demand
Factor Forecast
demand Factor
1 1 1.80 - 4.26 0.42 0.45 1.93
2 2 3.90 - 4.37 0.89 0.90 3.94
3 3 9.20 4.34 4.47 2.06 2.12 9.49
4 4 2.30 4.41 4.58 0.50 0.48 2.18
1 5 2.10 4.64 4.69 0.45 0.45 2.13
2 6 4.20 4.85 4.79 0.88 0.90 4.33
3 7 10.70 4.96 4.90 2.18 2.12 10.40
4 8 2.50 5.14 5.01 0.50 0.48 2.39
1 9 2.80 5.34 5.11 0.55 0.45 2.32
2 10 4.90 5.46 5.22 0.94 0.90 4.71
3 11 11.60 5.40 5.33 2.18 2.12 11.30
4 12 2.60 5.35 5.44 0.48 0.48 2.59
1 13 2.20 5.41 5.54 0.40 0.45 2.51
2 14 5.10 5.44 5.65 0.90 0.90 5.10
3 15 11.90 - 5.76 2.07 2.12 12.21
4 16 2.50 - 5.86 0.43 0.48 2.79

MSE
 Error

0.02
0.00 14.00
0.08
0.01 12.00

0.00 10.00
0.02
0.09 8.00
0.01
6.00
0.23
0.04 4.00
0.09
0.00 2.00
0.10
0.00
0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
0.09
Demand Final Demand Forecast
0.09

0.054569
 a 4.1538752914
Year qtr period Demand DD Fitted deseasonalized demand SF
1 1 1 1.8 4.26064976689977 0.4224707729
1 2 2 3.9 4.36742424242424 0.8929748482
1 3 3 9.2 4.3375 4.47419871794872 2.0562341058
1 4 4 2.3 4.4125 4.58097319347319 0.502076721
2 1 5 2.1 4.6375 4.68774766899767 0.4479763307
2 2 6 4.2 4.85 4.79452214452215 0.8759997083
2 3 7 10.7 4.9625 4.90129662004662 2.1830957866
2 4 8 2.5 5.1375 5.0080710955711 0.4991941912
3 1 9 2.8 5.3375 5.11484557109557 0.5474261072
3 2 10 4.9 5.4625 5.22162004662005 0.9384060802
3 3 11 11.6 5.4 5.32839452214452 2.1770159758
3 4 12 2.6 5.35 5.435168997669 0.4783659903
4 1 13 2.2 5.4125 5.54194347319347 0.3969726524
4 2 14 5.1 5.4375 5.64871794871795 0.9028597367
4 3 15 11.9 5.75549242424243 2.0675902465
4 4 16 2.5 5.8622668997669 0.4264561888
b 0.106774475524476
AVSF Final Demand Forecast ERROR
0.45371147 1.93310565099683 0.0177171143
0.90256009 3.94186283193061 0.0017524967
2.12098403 9.48970402182303 0.0839284203
0.47652327 2.18294033891432 0.0137029643
0.45371147 2.12688486619741 0.000722796
0.90256009 4.32734435431663 0.0162165846
2.12098403 10.3955718508471 0.092676498
0.47652327 2.38646242904214 0.01289078
0.45371147 2.32066408139798 0.2297629229
0.90256009 4.71282587670263 0.0350341524
2.12098403 11.3014396798712 0.0891382648
0.47652327 2.58998451916996 0.0001003099
0.45371147 2.51444329659855 0.0988745868
0.90256009 5.09830739908865 2.864898E-06
2.12098403 12.2073075088954 0.094437905
0.47652327 2.79350660929779 0.0861461297

MSE 0.0545690494
RMSE 0.2336001914