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Bike-Sharing Demand Analysis Project

The document describes a project to analyze bike sharing demand data from Lyft and build a predictive model. Key steps include: 1. Exploring and cleaning the data, including checking for null values and outliers. 2. Performing univariate and bivariate analyses to understand patterns and relationships between features like season, weather, and bike counts. 3. Pre-processing categorical features and splitting the data into train and test sets. 4. Building a linear regression model on the train set and evaluating its performance on the test set using the R2 score. The goal is to accurately predict bike demand based on environmental factors.

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Amit Kumar
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275 views14 pages

Bike-Sharing Demand Analysis Project

The document describes a project to analyze bike sharing demand data from Lyft and build a predictive model. Key steps include: 1. Exploring and cleaning the data, including checking for null values and outliers. 2. Performing univariate and bivariate analyses to understand patterns and relationships between features like season, weather, and bike counts. 3. Pre-processing categorical features and splitting the data into train and test sets. 4. Building a linear regression model on the train set and evaluating its performance on the test set using the R2 score. The goal is to accurately predict bike demand based on environmental factors.

Uploaded by

Amit Kumar
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Project Overview
  • Data Loading and Cleaning
  • Univariate Analysis
  • Bivariate Analysis
  • Data Pre-Processing and Modeling

Data Analytics with Python

Certification Project
Bike-Sharing Demand Analysis

Objective: Use data to understand what factors affect the number of bike trips. Make a
predictive model to predict the number of trips in a particular hour slot, depending on the
environmental conditions.

Problem Statement:
Lyft, Inc. is a transportation network company based in San Francisco, California and operating
in 640 cities in the United States and 9 cities in Canada. It develops, markets, and operates the
Lyft mobile app, offering car rides, scooters, and a bicycle-sharing system. It is the second
largest rideshare company in the world, second to only Uber.
Lyft’s bike-sharing service is also among the largest in the USA. Being able to anticipate demand
is extremely important for planning of bicycles, stations, and the personnel required to
maintain these. This demand is sensitive to a lot of factors like season, humidity, rain,
weekdays, holidays, and more. To enable this planning, Lyft needs to rightly predict the demand
according to these factors.

Domain: General

Analysis to be done: Rightly predict the bike demand

Content: Dataset: Lyft bike-sharing data ([Link])


Fields in the data:
- instant: record index
- dteday: date
- season: season (1:spring, 2:summer, 3:fall, 4:winter)
- yr: year (0: 2011, 1: 2012)
- mnth: month (1 to 12)
- hr: hour (0 to 23)
- holiday : whether the day is a holiday or not
- weekday : day of the week
- workingday : if the day is neither weekend nor a holiday is 1, otherwise is 0
- weathersit :
- 1: Clear, Few clouds, Partly cloudy
- 2: Mist + Cloudy, Mist + Broken clouds, Mist + Few clouds, Mist
- 3: Light Snow, Light Rain + Thunderstorm + Scattered clouds
- 4: Heavy Rain + Ice Pellets + Thunderstorm + Mist, Snow + Fog
- temp : normalized temperature in Celsius; the values are divided to 41 (max)
- atemp: normalized temperature felt in Celsius; the values are divided to 50 (max)
- hum: normalized humidity; the values are divided to 100 (max)
- windspeed: normalized wind speed; the values are divided to 67 (max)
- casual: count of casual users
- registered: count of registered users
- cnt: count of total rental bikes including both casual and registered

Steps to perform:
As the first step, look at the null values in the file. A sanity check, to ensure that you have clean
records and the data is good to go ahead, is very important. Then, you’ll do univariate and
bivariate analyses to identify the patterns in the data and the nature of the individual features.
This is a very important step as this helps to not only identify features which could be
interesting for the predictive model later, but also helps understand what’s going on in the
data. The EDA will help identify the need to apply transformations on the features before
building the model. Finally, you will make a predictive model using linear regression.

Solution
1. Load the data file
inp0 = pd.read_csv("[Link]")
[Link]()

2. Check for null values in the data, drop records with NAs
[Link]().sum(axis=0)
Looks like there are no records with null values. Looks good so far.

3. Sanity checks:
a. Check if registered + casual = cnt for all the records. The two must add to cnt, if not
the row is junk and should be dropped.
[Link](([Link] + [Link]) != [Link])

b. Month values should be 1-12 only


[Link]([Link])

c. Hour should be 0-23


[Link]([Link])
4. Variables ‘casual’, ‘registered’ are redundant and need to be dropped. ‘Instant’ is the
index, and needs to be dropped too. The date column dteday will not be used in the
model building, and hence needs to be dropped. Create new dataframe named ‘inp1’.
cols_to_drop = ['casual', 'registered', 'dteday', 'instant']
inp1 = [Link](cols_to_drop, axis=1).copy()

5. Univariate analysis –
- Describe the numerical fields in the dataset using pandas describe method
[Link]()

- Make density plot for temp. This would give a sense of the centrality and the
spread of the distribution.
[Link]()

- Boxplot for atemp.


o Are there any outliers?

[Link]([Link])
There don’t seem to be any outliers for atemp.

- Histogram for hum


o Do you detect any abnormally high values?
[Link]()

No visible abnormally high values

- Density plot for windspeed


[Link]()
- Box and density plot for cnt – this is the variable of interest.
o Do you see any outliers in the boxplot?
o Does the density plot provide a similar insight?
[Link]()

[Link]([Link])
Both plots show similar picture – some high values are present in cnt.

6. Outlier treatment –
1. Cnt – looks like some hours have rather high values of cnt. We’ll need to treat these
outliers so that they don’t skew our analysis and our model.
a. Find out the following percentiles - 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, 95, 99
b. Decide the cutoff percentile and drop records with values higher that the
cutoff. Name the new dataframe ‘inp2’.
[Link]([0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.70, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99])

563 is the 95th percentile – only 5% records have a value higher than this. Taking this as the
cutoff.
inp2 = inp1[[Link] < 563].copy()

7. Bi-variate analysis
1. Make box plot for cnt vs hr
a. What kind of pattern do you see?
[Link](figsize=[12,6])
[Link]("hr", "cnt", data=inp2)

It’s evident that the peak hours are 5PM – 7PM, the hours 7-8AM also have high upper quartile.
A hypothesis could be that a lot of people use the bikes for commute to workplace and back.

2. Make boxplot for cnt vs weekday


a. Is there any difference in the rides by days of the week?
[Link](figsize=[8,5])
[Link]("weekday", "cnt", data=inp2)
3. Make boxplot for cnt vs month
a. Look at the median values. Any month(s) that stand out?
[Link](figsize=[10,6])
[Link]("mnth", "cnt", data=inp2

Looks like end of winter/ early spring months have the least bike riding instances.
4. Make boxplot for cnt vs season
a. Which season has the highest rides in general? Expected?
[Link](figsize=[10,6])
[Link]("season", "cnt", data=inp2)
5. Make a bar plot with the median value of cnt for each hr
a. Does this paint a different picture than the box plot?
[Link](figsize=[8,5])
[Link]([Link](), [Link])

Paints a similar picture to the boxplot. Although the view is much cleaner and the pattern
comes out much easier.
6. Make a correlation matrix for variables – atemp, temp, hum, windspeed
a. Which variables have the highest correlation?
num_vars = ['temp', 'atemp', 'hum', 'windspeed']
corrs = inp2[num_vars].corr()

Bonus: Heatmap of the correlations


[Link](corrs, annot=True, cmap="Reds")
8. Data pre-processing
A few key considerations for the pre-processing –
We seem to have plenty of categorical features. Since these categorical features can’t be used
in the predictive model, we need to convert to a suitable numerical representation. Instead
of creating dozens of new dummy variables, we will try to club levels of categorical features
wherever possible. For a feature with high number of categorical levels, we can club the
values that are very similar in value for the target variable
First, create a copy of the dataframe into inp3
1. Treating ‘mnth’ column
a. For values 5,6,7,8,9,10 – replace with a single value 5. This is because these
have very similar values for cnt.
b. Get dummies for the updated 6 ‘mnth’ values
inp3 = [Link]()
[Link][[Link]([5,6,7,8,9])] = 5
[Link]([Link])

2. Treating ‘hr’ column


a. Create new mapping: 0-5: 0, 11-15: 11, other values are untouched. Again, the
bucketing is done in a way that hr values with similar levels of cnt are treated
the same.
[Link][[Link]([0,1,2,3,4,5])] = 0
[Link][[Link]([11,12,13,14,15])] = 11
3. Get dummy columns for season, weathersit, weekday, mnth, hr. We needn’t club
these further, because as seen from the box plots, the levels seem to have different
values for the median cnt.
cat_cols = ['season', 'weathersit', 'weekday', 'mnth', 'hr']
inp3 = pd.get_dummies(inp3, columns=cat_cols, drop_first=True)

9. Train test split – apply 70-30 split


- call the new dataframes df_train, df_test

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split


df_train, df_test = train_test_split(inp3, train_size = 0.7,
random_state = 100)

10. Separate X and Y for df_train and df_test. For example – you should have X_train, y_train
from df_train. y_train should be the cnt column from inp3, X_train should be all other
columns.
y_train = df_train.pop("cnt")
X_train = df_train

y_test = df_test.pop("cnt")
X_test = df_test

10 . Model building
- Use Linear regression as the technique
- Report the R2 on the train set
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
lr = LinearRegression()
[Link](X_train, y_train)

Reporting r2 for the model


from [Link] import r2_score
y_train_pred= [Link](X_train)
r2_score(y_train, y_train_pred)

11. Make predictions on test set, report R2


y_test_pred= [Link](X_test)
r2_score(y_test, y_test_pred)

Common questions

Powered by AI

Temporal features such as 'hour' and 'month' are crucial for understanding variations in bike usage patterns over time. By bucketing similar hours or months based on consistent bike rental levels, preprocessing improves model focus while reducing dimensionality. For example, mapping late-night hours to a single category captures minimal demand periods succinctly, while peak and non-peak hours are treated distinctly to highlight major demand influencers .

Bi-variate analysis comparing 'cnt' to temporal factors like months and seasons uncovers cyclical patterns which influence demand. Observing that early spring months have lower usage can guide the model to adjust seasonal parameters thus improving accuracy. Recognizing seasonality informs how seasonal effects need adjusting in the model to capture temporal variation in demand effectively .

Removing redundancies like 'casual' and 'registered' simplifies the data and mitigates issues of multicollinearity, where strongly correlated inputs could lead to overfitting. This streamlines data processing, focusing the model on the aggregated 'cnt' variable, thus enhancing accuracy by avoiding duplicative input that does not contribute additional information about overall demand .

The hours of 5 PM to 7 PM and 7-8 AM show the highest and most consistent demand for bike-sharing, as evidenced by the peak values in the boxplot analysis. This demand pattern suggests strong usage associated with commuting, as many people likely use the bikes for traveling to and from work during these hours .

Dropping redundant columns such as 'casual' and 'registered' is crucial for simplifying the data model and avoiding multicollinearity issues. Since 'cnt' is the sum of 'casual' and 'registered', retaining them would introduce redundancy and potential noise into the predictive model. Simplifying the dataset by focusing only on 'cnt' helps improve model performance and interpretability .

The correlation matrix helps identify which variables have high correlations, indicating a strong interrelationship. For the bike-sharing dataset, examining the correlation matrix for 'temp', 'atemp', 'hum', and 'windspeed' variables can reveal how these environmental factors potentially influence each other. High correlation between 'temp' and 'atemp' suggests that the felt temperature is closely linked to actual temperatures, and understanding these correlations helps build a more accurate predictive model .

Outliers can skew the analysis and lead to biased or inaccurate predictions in a predictive model. To address this, outlier treatment involves identifying unusually high or low values compared to a distribution benchmark, such as the 95th percentile. In the bike-sharing dataset, it was decided to drop records with 'cnt' values higher than the 95th percentile (value of 563) to mitigate skewness .

Rescaling certain hours into simpler bins aims to reduce complexity and account for minimal variation in specific periods, notably very low or consistent demand hours. This grouping reduces dimensional noise and enhances the model's capability to generalize over non-distinguishable patterns, focusing learning on hours where demand significantly varies. Such binning effectively biases the model towards core, informative patterns, thereby enhancing predictive performance .

Transformations are crucial preparatory steps to ensure that data aligns well with regression assumptions and to enhance feature utility. In the case of linear regression, transformations help normalize distributions, adjust for skewness (e.g., removing outliers), and convert categorical data into usable forms, optimizing the model's capacity to learn complex relationships and deliver accurate predictions effectively .

Transforming categorical features into numerical representations is vital because many machine learning algorithms, including linear regression, require numerical input. By creating dummy variables or grouping similar categories (e.g., collapsing certain months into a single category based on similar rental counts), the predictive model can more accurately and efficiently capture relationships between variables, improving prediction quality and maintaining manageable complexity .

Data Analytics with Python Certification Project
Bike-Sharing Demand Analysis Objective: Use data to unders
- atemp: normalized temperature felt in Celsius; the values
Looks like there are no records with null values. Looks goo
4. Variables ‘casual’, ‘registered’ are redundant and need
There don’t seem to be any outliers for atemp. - Histogram
- Box and density plot for cnt – this is the variable of in
Both plots show similar picture – some high values are pres
plt.figure(figsize=[12,6]) sns.boxplot("hr", "cnt", data=in
3. Make boxplot for cnt vs month a. Look at the median valu

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