12.
The Binomial Probability Distribution
A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following
properties:
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• Mean and variance of a binomial distribution
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials;
2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as
a success or a failure (hence the name, binomial);
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains
constant from trial to trial and repeated trials are
independent.
The number of successes X in n trials of a binomial experiment
is called a binomial random variable.
The probability distribution of the random variable X is called
a binomial distribution, and is given by the formula:
P(X) = Cnxpxqn−x
where
n = the number of trials
x = 0, 1, 2, ... n
p = the probability of success in a single trial
q = the probability of failure in a single trial
(i.e. q = 1 − p)
Cnx is a combination
P(X) gives the probability of successes in n binomial trials.
Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution
If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure
in a binomial trial, then the expected number of successes
in n trials (i.e. the mean value of the binomial distribution) is
E(X) = μ = np
The variance of the binomial distribution is
V(X) = σ2 = npq
Note: In a binomial distribution, only 2 parameters,
namely n and p, are needed to determine the probability.
EXAMPLE 1
A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of
(a) No fives turning up?
(b) 1 five?
(c) 3 fives?
Answer
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes (we
get a 5 or we don't).
Now, n = 3 for each part. Let X = number of fives appearing.
(a) Here, x = 0.
(b) Here, x = 1.
(c) Here, x = 3.
EXAMPLE 2
Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain
disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly
selected patients, 4 will recover?
Answer
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient
dies, or does not).
Let X = number who recover.
Here, n = 6 and x = 4. Let p = 0.25 (success - i.e. they live), q = 0.75 (failure,
i.e. they die).
The probability that 4 will recover:
Histogram of this distribution:
We could calculate all the probabilities involved and we would get:
The histogram (using Excel) is as follows:
It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the probability that none of them will
recover is 0.17798, the probability that one will recover is 0.35596, and the
probability that all 6 will recover is extremely small.
SNB "Histogram"
Alternatively, we can use Scientific Notebook's "Plot Approximate Integral" to
give us something approaching the histogram of this experiment. Of course,
the x-values are not quite right in the SNB answer (because it was not designed
to do this), so I have made an adjustment to the x-axis.
EXAMPLE 3
In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any
attempt to make a telephone call. (This often depended on the
imortance of the person making the call, or the operator's
curiosity!)
Calculate the probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.
Answer
Probability of success p = 0.8, so q = 0.2.
X = success in getting through.
Probability of 7 successes in 10 attempts:
Histogram
Using the following function in SNB,
we have:
EXAMPLE 4
A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the
target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the probability
of
(a) more than 2 hits?
(b) at least 3 misses?
Answer
Here, n = 4, p = 0.8, q = 0.2.
Let X = number of hits.
Let x0 = no hits, x1 = 1 hit, x2 = 2 hits, etc.
(a)
(b) 3 misses means 1 hit, and 4 misses means 0 hits.
EXAMPLE 5
The ratio of boys to girls at birth in Singapore is quite high at
1.09:1.
What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will
have at least 3 boys? (Ignore the probability of multiple births.)
[Interesting and disturbing trivia: In most countries the ratio of
boys to girls is about 1.04:1, but in China it is 1.15:1.]
Answer
The probability of getting a boy is
Let X = number of boys in the family.
Here,
n = 6,
p = 0.5215,
q = 1 − 0.52153 = 0.4785
So the probability of getting at least 3 boys is:
NOTE: We could have calculated it like this:
EXAMPLE 6
A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12%
of his pistons are rejected because they are either oversize or
undersize. What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will
contain
(a) no more than 2 rejects? (b) at least 2 rejects?
Answer
Let X = number of rejected pistons
(In this case, "success" means rejection!)
Here, n = 10, p = 0.12, q = 0.88.
(a)
No rejects
One reject
Two rejects
So the probability of getting no more than 2 rejects is:
(b) We could work out all the cases for X = 2, 3, 4, ..., 10, but it is much easier
to proceed as follows:
Histogram
Using SNB , we can define the
function and then use matrices to
find the values at 0, 1, 2, ... which gives us the histogram:
Alternatively, using SNB :
11. Probability Distributions - Concepts
13. Poisson Probability Distribution