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Financial Projections and Valuation Analysis

This document summarizes the historical and projected financial performance of a company from 2009-2015. It reports key metrics such as EBITDA, operating income, net income, revenues, expenses, free cash flows, and provides assumptions for a discounted cash flow valuation. The company's revenues are projected to grow steadily across all business segments. EBITDA, operating income and net income are also forecasted to increase year over year as revenues grow and expenses remain a consistent percentage of revenues. The discounted cash flow analysis values the company at $18.9 million based on projected free cash flows and a terminal value estimate of $25.6 million using a perpetuity growth rate of 3%.

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76 views5 pages

Financial Projections and Valuation Analysis

This document summarizes the historical and projected financial performance of a company from 2009-2015. It reports key metrics such as EBITDA, operating income, net income, revenues, expenses, free cash flows, and provides assumptions for a discounted cash flow valuation. The company's revenues are projected to grow steadily across all business segments. EBITDA, operating income and net income are also forecasted to increase year over year as revenues grow and expenses remain a consistent percentage of revenues. The discounted cash flow analysis values the company at $18.9 million based on projected free cash flows and a terminal value estimate of $25.6 million using a perpetuity growth rate of 3%.

Uploaded by

Abinash
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Management Cash Flow Projections
  • Market Cash Flow Projections
  • Valuation Sensitivities

Reported Projected

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


EBITDA $836 $1,008 $1,382 $1,671 $2,248 $2,810 $3,173

Depreciation & Amortization ($266) ($288) ($352) ($403) ($516) ($615) ($694)
% of Revenues -6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

Other Expenses ($66) ($206) ($50) ($58) ($74) $0 $0


% of Revenues -1.6% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Operating Income $504 $514 $980 $1,210 $1,658 $2,195 $2,479


% EBIT Margin 12.4% 12.5% 19.5% 21.0% 22.5% 25.0% 25.0%

Taxes ($121) ($180) ($343) ($424) ($580) ($768) ($868)


% Tax rate -22.3% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

NOPAT $382 $334 $637 $787 $1,078 $1,427 $1,611


9.4% 8.1% 12.7% 13.7% 14.6% 16.3% 16.3%
Depreciation & Amortization $266 $288 $352 $403 $516 $615 $694
Capital Expenditures ($662) ($576) ($603) ($692) ($885) ($1,054) ($1,190)
14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Change in Working Capital ($6.6) (9.3) (220.4) (178.3) (389.1) (341.4) (274.6)

Free cash flow ($20) $37 $165 $320 $320 $647 $841
% FCF Margin -0.5% 0.9% 3.3% 5.6% 4.3% 7.4% 8.5%

Discounted Cash Flows


Assumptions
WACC 7.00% Midpoint of WACC range
EBITDA Multiple 10.4× Median of industry
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Long-term inflation expectations + real growth
TV Perp (1), Multiple (0) -

Year Counter 1 2 3 4 5 6
Free Cash Flow $37 $165 $320 $320 $647 $841
Terminal Value Estimate $32,957
Total Cash Flows $37 $165 $320 $320 $647 $33,798
Present Value of Cash Flows $35 $144 $261 $244 $461 $22,527

Enterprise Value (equity + debt) $23,673 Terminal Value


$1,541 Multiple Perpetuity
Implied Equity Value $25,214 32,957 21,683
Diluted Shares Outstanding 269
Share Price $94
Reported Projected
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue sources
Personalized Genetic Health 1,850.0 1,665.0 2,164.5 2,489.2 2,787.9 3,122.4 3,497.1
% Growth -10.0% 30.0% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Renal and Endocrinology 1,008.0 1,038.2 1,069.4 1,101.5 1,134.5 850.9 595.6
% Growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% -25.0% -30.0%
Biosurgery 513.7 590.8 679.4 781.3 898.5 1,033.2 1,157.2
% Growth 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.0%
Hematology and Oncology 509.8 688.2 894.7 1,118.4 1,342.0 1,543.4 1,774.9
% Growth 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Other 29.1 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.6
% Growth -30.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Pipeline (Prob. Adj.) - - - 20.0 70.0 220.0 300.0
% Growth 250.0% 214.3% 67.0%
Revenues $4,076.67 4,002.6 4,828.9 5,531.9 6,255.2 6,792.8 7,348.4
% Growth -2.9% -1.8% 20.6% 14.6% 13.1% 8.6% 8.2%
COGS ($1,386) ($1,281) ($1,473) ($1,604) ($1,720) ($1,766) ($1,911)
% of Revenues -34.0% 32.0% 30.5% 29.0% 27.5% 26.0% 26.0%

Gross Profit $2,691 $2,722 $3,356 $3,928 $4,535 $5,027 $5,438


% Gross Margin 66.0% 68.0% 69.5% 71.0% 72.5% 74.0% 74.0%
General & Administrative ($1,429) ($1,301) ($1,497) ($1,632) ($1,845) ($2,004) ($2,168)
% of Revenues -35.0% 32.5% 31.0% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5%

R&D ($865) ($841) ($1,014) ($1,162) ($1,314) ($1,426) ($1,543)


% of Revenues -21.2% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%

Service and R&D Revenues $439 $400 $483 $553 $626 $679 $735
10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

EBITDA $836 $981 $1,328 $1,687 $2,002 $2,276 $2,462


Reported Projected
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EBITDA $836 $981 $1,328 $1,687 $2,002 $2,276 $2,462
Depreciation & Amortization ($266) ($280) ($338) ($387) ($438) ($475) ($514)
% of Revenues -6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

Other Expenses ($66) ($200) ($48) ($55) ($63) $0 $0


% of Revenues -1.6% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Operating Income $504 $500 $942 $1,245 $1,501 $1,800 $1,947


% EBIT Margin 12.4% 12.5% 19.5% 22.5% 24.0% 26.5% 26.5%
Taxes ($121) ($175) ($330) ($436) ($525) ($630) ($682)
% Tax rate -22.3% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%

NOPAT $382 $325 $612 $809 $976 $1,170 $1,266


9% 8.1% 12.7% 14.6% 15.6% 17.2% 17.2%
Depreciation & Amortization $266 $280 $338 $387 $438 $475 $514
Capital Expenditures ($662) ($560) ($579) ($664) ($751) ($815) ($882)
14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Change in Working Capital ($7) 17.9 (199.9) (170.1) (175.0) (130.1) (134.4)

Free cash flow ($20) $63 $171 $362 $488 $700 $764
% FCF Margin -0.5% 1.6% 3.5% 6.6% 7.8% 10.3% 10.4%

Discounted Cash Flows


Assumptions
WACC 7.00% Midpoint of WACC range
EBITDA Multiple 10.4× Median of industry
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Long-term inflation expectations + real growth
TV Perp (1), Multiple (0) -

Year ==> 1 2 3 4 5 6
Free Cash Flow $63 $171 $362 $488 $700 $764
Terminal Value Estimate $25,566
Total Cash Flows $63 $171 $362 $488 $700 $26,330
Present Value of Cash Flows $59 $149 $296 $372 $499 $17,549

Enterprise Value (equity + debt) $18,925 Terminal Value


$1,541 Multiple Perpetuity
Implied Equity Value $20,466 $25,566 $19,694
Diluted Shares Outstanding 269
Share Price $76

Reported Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA $836 $1,008 $1,382 $1,671 $2,248 $2,810 $3,173 Depreciation & Am
Reported Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue sources Personalized Genetic Health 1,850.0 1,665.0
Reported Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA $836 $981 $1,328 $1,687 $2,002 $2,276 $2,462 Depreciation & Amor

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