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Stat 310 Fall 2021 Problem Set 4

This document is a problem set for a statistics class consisting of 18 problems covering topics related to probability distributions, functions of random variables, joint and marginal probability distributions, independence, covariance, correlation, inequalities, laws of large numbers, and the central limit theorem. Students are instructed to show their work and submit their answers through Canvas by the due date.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
40 views2 pages

Stat 310 Fall 2021 Problem Set 4

This document is a problem set for a statistics class consisting of 18 problems covering topics related to probability distributions, functions of random variables, joint and marginal probability distributions, independence, covariance, correlation, inequalities, laws of large numbers, and the central limit theorem. Students are instructed to show their work and submit their answers through Canvas by the due date.

Uploaded by

Karen Lu
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

McGuffey  Fall 2021 Stat 310 Problem Set

U NIT 4 P ROBLEM S ET (PS4)


Due: 11 pm CT on Monday, October 25, 2021.
Submission instructions are on Canvas.

All textbook problems refer to problems from Introduction to Probability, Second Edition, by Bert-
sekas and Tsitsiklis. All problems will be graded for effort and completeness. Work must be
shown thoroughly for a problem to be considered complete. See Canvas for answers and com-
plete solutions.

Lesson 3.3: Functions of RVs, MGFs


These two problems were moved from PS3. If you submitted them with PS3, please resubmit with PS4.

1. For each MGF stated below, what named distribution does X follow? State the name and
parameter value(s).
2
(a) MX (s) = (0.3es + 0.7)10 (c) MX (s) = e4s
( 5s es
e es
4s − 4s 6 0
for s =
(b) MX (s) = s
1 for s = 0 (d) MX (s) = e−0.7 e0.7e

2. (Textbook, pg. 257) Ch. 4, Problem 36 parts (b) and (c) only.

Lesson 3.4: Intro to Joint PDFs


3. Suppose you (simultaneously) buy a used clothes washer and dryer. Let X be how long the
washer will last, in days, and let Y be how long the dryer will last, in days. Assume X and Y
are independent and jointly uniform, with 0 < x < 400 and 0 < y < 260.

(a) State the joint PDF of X and Y . Be sure to include the support.
(b) What is the probability the washer fails before the dryer?

4. Consider r.v.s X and Y with joint PDF f (x, y ) = 31 (x + y ) for 0 < x < 2 and 0 < y < 1.
2
(a) Find P(X + Y > 1). (b) Find P( XY < 1). (c) Find P(|X − Y | > 0.6).

5. Consider r.v.s X and Y with joint PDF f (x, y) = cxy for 0 < y < x < 2. Find P(X − Y ≤ 0.5).
Hint: First find the value of c that makes this a valid PDF.

Lesson 3.5: Joint PDFs, Independence, Covariance & Correlation


6. (Textbook, pg. 190) Ch. 3, Problem 18 part (a).
7. Show that ρ(X , aY + b) = ρ(X , Y ) for r.v.s X and Y and scalars a > 0 and b. (This is one
of the covariance/correlation properties in the Lesson 3.5 notes.) Briefly justify each step;
a word or short phrase is fine, such as “correlation definition”, “covariance property 4”, or
“algebra”. Hint: Start by using the definition of correlation.
8. (Textbook, pg. 249) Ch. 4, Problem 18.

PS4  Page 1/2


McGuffey  Fall 2021 Stat 310 Problem Set

9. Again consider r.v.s X and Y with joint PDF f (x, y ) = 31 (x + y ) for 0 < x < 2 and 0 < y < 1.
(a) Find the marginal PDF of X . Remember to state the support.
(b) Find the conditional distribution of Y given that X = x.
(c) Find E[Y | X = 1].
(d) Calculate the covariance of X and Y .
10. Consider r.v.s X , Y , and Z . Suppose Var (X ) = 4, Var (Y ) = 9, Var (Z ) = 16, Cov (X , Y ) = −1,
ρ(X , Z ) = 0.3, and ρ(Y , 3Z ) = −0.9. Hint: Use the definitions and properties of covariance
and correlation.
(a) Find ρ(X , Y ). (c) Find Cov (X , Z ). (e) Find Cov (X + Y , Y ).
(b) Find ρ(Z , Y ). (d) Find Cov (X + 0.5, 2.5Y ).

Lesson 4.1: Inequalities and Law of Large Numbers


11. Let X ∼ Exponential(λ = 0.5). For each of the following, use the Markov inequality to find an
upper bound on the probability and use the exponential PDF or CDF to calculate the exact
probability.

(a) P(X ≥ 0.5) (b) P(X ≥ 2) (c) P(X ≥ 4) (d) P(X ≥ 8)


12. (Textbook, pg. 284) Ch. 5, Problem 1, parts (a) and (b) only. Hint: Be careful with units.
13. Let Xi , i = 1, ..., n, be i.i.d. continuous random variables with Var (Xi ) = 2.7, and consider
their mean X n . For the values of n below, use Chebyshev’s inequality to calculate an upper
bound for the probability that X n is at least 0.5 units away from its expected value.
(a) n = 15 (b) n = 100 (c) n = 1000
(d) What value does the Law of Large Numbers tell us these probabilities should tend
towards as n increases?

Lesson 4.2: Central Limit Theorem


14. (Textbook, pg. 275) This is Example 5.9. We load on a plane 100 packages whose weights
are independent r.v.s that are uniformly distributed between 5 and 50 pounds. Use the CLT
to find the approximate probability that the total weight will exceed 3000 pounds. Report your
answer in Φ notation and provide a final numerical answer.
15. Let X be the mean of a random sample of size 50 from a geometric distribution with mean 3.
(a) Calculate P(2.5 ≤ X ≤ 4). Note that this is asking about a single X , not X .
(b) Use the approximate distribution of X , based on the CLT, to calculate P(2.5 ≤ X ≤ 4).
16. The tensile strength X of paper, in pounds per square inch, has µ = 30 and σ = 3. A random
sample of size n = 100 is taken from the distribution of tensile strengths. Compute the
(approximate) probability that the sample mean X is greater than 29.5 pounds per square
inch. Provide your answer in Φ notation and calculate a final numerical answer.
17. Let S = X1 +X2 +· · ·+X30 be the sum of 30 i.i.d. r.v.s, where each Xi has the distribution defined
by PDF fX (x) = 1.5x 2 for −1 < x < 1. Use the CLT to approximate P(−0.3 < S < 1.5).
18. THIS PROBLEM IS OPTIONAL: (Textbook, pg. 290) Ch. 5, Problem 8. Background: If the
roulette is fair, then each number (1 - 36) is equally likely to be the result of the round.

PS4  Page 2/2

Common questions

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The correlation coefficient ρ(X, Y) is calculated by dividing the covariance by the product of the standard deviations: ρ(X, Y) = Cov(X, Y) / (σ_Xσ_Y) = -1 / (2*3) = -1/6. This uses the relation between covariance and correlation .

For the exponential distribution, Markov's inequality gives P(X ≥ 2) ≤ E(X)/2 = 1/λ / 2 = 1. Using Markov’s inequality provides a loose upper bound based on expectation and requires knowing E(X) = 1/λ .

The moment generating function M_X(s) = (0.3e^s + 0.7)^10 indicates that X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 10 and p = 0.3. This can be determined by recognizing the pattern of the MGF for a binomial random variable, which is (pe^s + q)^n, where q = 1 - p .

Chebyshev’s inequality states P(|X̄ - μ| ≥ kσ) ≤ 1/k². For X̄ with n = 15, Var(X̄) = 2.7/15. For k such that kσ = 0.5, k = 0.5/sqrt(2.7/15). Substituting into Chebyshev’s gives an upper bound: P(|X̄ - μ| ≥ 0.5) ≤ (2.7*15)/(15*0.5²) = 0.18. This provides an upper probability bound .

The correlation ρ(X, aY + b) = ρ(X, Y) follows from the definition of correlation ρ(X, Y) = Cov(X, Y)/(σ_Xσ_Y). Using covariance property: Cov(X, aY + b) = aCov(X, Y) and standard deviation scaling: σ(aY + b) = aσ(Y), substituting gives ρ(X, aY + b) = (aCov(X, Y))/(σ_Xaσ_Y) = ρ(X, Y).

Using the Central Limit Theorem, the total weight is approximately normally distributed with mean 2750 and variance 10416.67. Thus, P(total weight > 3000) can be calculated as P(Z > (3000 - 2750)/sqrt(10416.67)) = P(Z > 7.75) ≈ Φ(-7.75) ≈ 0 (practically almost 0), assuming standard normal distribution properties .

Since X and Y are independent and uniformly distributed, the probability that the washer (X) fails before the dryer (Y) can be calculated as P(X < Y) = Integral from 0 to 400 of (x/260)dx * (1/400) = (400^2)/(2*400*260) = 0.5. This result comes from integrating the joint PDF of independent uniform distributions over the region where x < y .

The marginal PDF of X is obtained by integrating the joint PDF over y, resulting in f_X(x) = Integral from 0 to 1 of 1/3(x + y) dy = 1/3(x + 0.5) for 0 < x < 2, which is the support of X. This requires integrating the joint distribution with respect to the other variable .

According to the Law of Large Numbers, as n increases, the probabilities that the sample mean diverges from the population mean decrease to 0. This result implies that with a larger sample size, the sample mean becomes a more accurate estimate of the population mean, leading to probabilities of deviation tending towards zero .

Using the Central Limit Theorem, S ~ N(nμ, nσ²) where μ = E(X_i) and σ² = Var(X_i) calculated from the given PDF. Approximate P(-0.3 < S < 1.5) using Z=(S-nμ)/sqrt(nσ²), adapting probabilities to the standard normal table Φ: P((Z+0.3/sqrt(nσ²)) < (S-nμ)/sqrt(nσ²) < (1.5-nμ)/sqrt(nσ²)). This provides a normal approximation for sum probabilities .

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