Scribd
Upload
18 views3 pages

Revenue and Cost Assumptions Analysis

This document contains the assumptions for the base case of a 5-year financial forecast for an organic pizza and shake company. It includes assumptions for revenue growth rates, average prices, cost of goods sold percentages, and operating expense growth rates for pizza units sold and average prices, shake units sold and average prices, input costs per pizza and shake, and staff costs. The base case assumes stable, historical growth rates across most metrics.

Uploaded by

Nouf A
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
18 views3 pages

Revenue and Cost Assumptions Analysis

This document contains the assumptions for the base case of a 5-year financial forecast for an organic pizza and shake company. It includes assumptions for revenue growth rates, average prices, cost of goods sold percentages, and operating expense growth rates for pizza units sold and average prices, shake units sold and average prices, input costs per pizza and shake, and staff costs. The base case assumes stable, historical growth rates across most metrics.

Uploaded by

Nouf A
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Assumptions Active Case: Base Case

Dec-YE Unit 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

* Case Chooser

Active Case # 1 Base Case


Base Case # 1
Upside Case # 2
Downside Case # 3

* Revenue Assumptions

Organic Pizza
Units Sold # 200,000 250,000 290,000 324,800 357,280 385,862 409,014 425,375
Annual Growth % 25.0% 16.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
Base Case % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Cascading growth
Upside Case % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%
Downside Case % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

Average Price $ 11.50 11.87 12.25 12.62 13.00 13.39 13.79 14.20
Annual Growth % 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Organic Shakes
Units Sold # 110,000 175,000 239,000 298,750 365,969 439,163 516,016 593,418
Annual Growth % 59.1% 36.6% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0%
Base Case % 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% Expecting buoyant demand
Upside Case % 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0%
Downside Case % 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0%

Average Price $ 5.50 5.68 5.86 6.04 6.22 6.40 6.60 6.79
Annual Growth % 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

* COGS Assumptions

Organic Pizza
Cost of Dough per Pizza $ 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31
Annual Growth % 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cost of Cheese per Pizza $ 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74
Annual Growth % 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cost of Sauce per Pizza $ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Annual Growth % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Downside Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Cost of Toppings per Pizza $ 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.15
Annual Growth % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Base Case % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Downside Case % 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Cost of Packaging per Pizza $ 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Annual Growth % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Base Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Downside Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Organic Shakes
Cost of Ingredients per Shake $ 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11
Annual Growth % 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cost of Packaging per Shake $ 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Annual Growth % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Base Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Downside Case % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

* Operating Expenses Assumptions

Staff Costs $ 800,000 880,000 930,000 976,500 1,015,560 1,046,027 1,077,408 1,109,730
Annual Growth % 10.0% 5.7% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Cascading growth
Upside Case % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Rental & Utilities Costs $ 180,000 192,600 206,000 220,420 235,849 252,359 270,024 288,926
Annual Growth % 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Base Case % 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Downside Case % 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%

Marketing Costs $ 250,000 325,000 380,000 433,200 485,184 533,702 576,399 610,983
Annual Growth % 30.0% 16.9% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%
Base Case % 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Cascading growth
Upside Case % 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%
Downside Case % 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%

Other Costs $ 50,000 52,000 53,500 55,105 56,758 58,461 60,215 62,021
Annual Growth % 4.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Stable growth with hist.
Upside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Downside Case % 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

* Capital Asset Assumptions

Net Capex as a % of Revenue % 15.0% 13.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
Base Case % 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Stable; conservative
Upside Case % 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
Downside Case % 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%

Depreciation as a % of Revenue % 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Base Case % 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% Stable; conservative
Upside Case % 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Downside Case % 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

* Financing Assumptions

Debt Interest Rate % 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Base Case % 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Stable; conservative
Upside Case % 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Downside Case % 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

Cash Interest Rate % 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Stable; conservative
Upside Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Downside Case % 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

New Equity Issuance $ - - - - -


Base Case $ - - - - -
Upside Case $ - - - - -
Downside Case $ - - - - -

New Debt Issuance $ - - - - -


Base Case $ - - - - -
Upside Case $ - - - - -
Downside Case $ - - - - -

* Other Assumptions

Tax Rate % 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Base Case % 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Stable
Upside Case % 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Downside Case % 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Dividend Payout Ratio % 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Base Case % 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Stable
Upside Case % 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Downside Case % 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%

Receivable Days days 11.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Base Case days 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 Stable
Upside Case days 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Downside Case days 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

Inventory Days days 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Base Case days 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Stable
Upside Case days 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Downside Case days 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Payable Days days 20.0 19.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Base Case days 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Stable
Upside Case days 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Downside Case days 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

* END
P&L Active Case: Base Case

Dec-YE Unit 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Organic Pizza Revenue $ 2,300,000 2,967,500 3,552,500 4,098,164 4,643,220 5,165,118 5,639,276 6,040,792
Organic Shakes Revenue $ 605,000 994,000 1,400,540 1,803,195 2,275,182 2,812,124 3,403,374 4,031,296
Total Revenue $ 2,905,000 3,961,500 4,953,040 5,901,359 6,918,401 7,977,242 9,042,649 10,072,088
Growth % 36.4% 25.0% 19.1% 17.2% 15.3% 13.4% 11.4%

Cost of Dough $ (50,000) (64,500) (77,140) (88,989) (100,824) (112,157) (122,453) (131,171)
Cost of Cheese $ (120,000) (155,000) (185,600) (214,108) (242,585) (269,851) (294,623) (315,601)
Cost of Sauce $ (10,000) (12,625) (14,790) (16,730) (18,588) (20,275) (21,707) (22,801)
Cost of Toppings $ (200,000) (255,000) (301,600) (344,548) (386,583) (425,859) (460,439) (488,434)
Cost of Pizza Packaging $ (60,000) (75,000) (87,000) (97,440) (107,184) (115,759) (122,704) (127,612)
Cost of Shakes Ingredients $ (99,000) (162,750) (228,962) (294,789) (371,949) (459,730) (556,388) (659,041)
Cost of Shakes Packaging $ (5,500) (8,750) (11,950) (14,938) (18,298) (21,958) (25,801) (29,671)
Gross Profit $ 2,360,500 3,227,875 4,045,998 4,829,818 5,672,391 6,551,653 7,438,534 8,297,757
Margin % 81.3% 81.5% 81.7% 81.8% 82.0% 82.1% 82.3% 82.4%

Staff Costs $ (800,000) (880,000) (930,000) (976,500) (1,015,560) (1,046,027) (1,077,408) (1,109,730)
Rental & Utilities Costs $ (180,000) (192,600) (206,000) (220,420) (235,849) (252,359) (270,024) (288,926)
Marketing Costs $ (250,000) (325,000) (380,000) (433,200) (485,184) (533,702) (576,399) (610,983)
Other Costs $ (50,000) (52,000) (53,500) (55,105) (56,758) (58,461) (60,215) (62,021)
EBITDA $ 1,080,500 1,778,275 2,476,498 3,144,593 3,879,039 4,661,104 5,454,489 6,226,098
Margin % 37.2% 44.9% 50.0% 53.3% 56.1% 58.4% 60.3% 61.8%

Depreciation & Amortisation $ (265,561) (311,328) (358,976) (406,919) (453,244)


EBIT (Operating Income) $ 2,879,032 3,567,711 4,302,128 5,047,570 5,772,854
Margin % 48.8% 51.6% 53.9% 55.8% 57.3%

Interest Income $
Interest Expense $
Profit Before Tax (PBT) $ 2,879,032 3,567,711 4,302,128 5,047,570 5,772,854
Margin % 48.8% 51.6% 53.9% 55.8% 57.3%

Tax Expense $ (863,710) (1,070,313) (1,290,638) (1,514,271) (1,731,856)


Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) $ 2,015,322 2,497,398 3,011,490 3,533,299 4,040,998
Margin % 34.2% 36.1% 37.8% 39.1% 40.1%

Dividend Payout Ratio % 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%


Dividends Paid $ 1,209,193 1,498,439 1,806,894 2,119,979 2,424,599

* END
Cash Flow Statement Active Case: Base Case

Dec-YE Unit 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

EBITDA $ 3,144,593 3,879,039 4,661,104 5,454,489 6,226,098


Taxes $ (863,710) (1,070,313) (1,290,638) (1,514,271) (1,731,856)
Change in Net Working Capital $
Interest Income $
Interest Expense $
Cash Flow from Operations $ 2,280,883 2,808,726 3,370,466 3,940,218 4,494,241

Net Capex $ (737,670) (864,800) (997,155) (1,130,331) (1,259,011)


Cash Flow from Investing $ (737,670) (864,800) (997,155) (1,130,331) (1,259,011)

Dividends Paid $ (1,209,193) (1,498,439) (1,806,894) (2,119,979) (2,424,599)


New Equity Issuance $ - - - - -
New Debt Issuance $ - - - - -
Cash Flow from Financing $ (1,209,193) (1,498,439) (1,806,894) (2,119,979) (2,424,599)

Net Cash Flow $ 334,020 445,487 566,417 689,908 810,632


Debt Drawdown / (Repayment) $
Cash to Balance Sheet $ 334,020 445,487 566,417 689,908 810,632

Opening Cash Balance $ 115,000 449,020 894,507 1,460,924 2,150,831


Cash to Balance Sheet $ 334,020 445,487 566,417 689,908 810,632
Closing Cash Balance $ 115,000 449,020 894,507 1,460,924 2,150,831 2,961,463

* END

You might also like