Data from a statewide survey of 600 registered

voters conducted February 3, 7-8, 2011.

Project # 11045
Statistically valid survey of 600 voters throughout
Arizona
Interviews conducted February 3, 7-8, 2011
Overall margin of error of +4.0%
+4 0%
Bipartisan research team of Public Opinion
Strategies
g and FM3 Research
Survey was informed by four separately conducted
focus groups among Phoenix area voters
Lori Weigel and David Metz were principal
researchers, with analytic support from Becky
Kramer and Trip Mullen.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 2

 Arizona voters demonstrate a strong preference
for transitioning away from coal and increasing the
use of clean, renewable energy to meet Arizona’s
future electricity needs. They have more positive
impressions of solar, wind, and hydro
hydro-electric
electric
power than they do of coal or nuclear.

While there has been an increasing focus on

affordability and reliability among voters, they
reject the idea renewable energy cannot meet
both criteria. They say that having more
affordable electricity is not worth the pollution,
and say they are willing to pay higher energy
prices to increase the use of renewable
alternatives.
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 4
 Framing the issue as a choice facing electricity
providers in light of updated air quality standards
is important. Air pollution is perceived as the
biggest environmental problem facing the state,
and two-in-five say they or a family member have
a respiratory
i t illness.
ill The
Th idea
id off “transitioning”
“t iti i ”
to clean, renewable energy is also more
palatable.

There are an abundance of compelling messages

in support of transitioning to clean energy, chief
among them one that focuses on the public
health benefits (the American Lung Association
is one of the most credible messengers, along
) Messages
with scientists). g in opposition
pp are not
nearly as compelling. Voters stay solidly in
support of investing in renewable energy.
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 5
 Air pollution is the biggest top-of-mind
environmental concern for every key
sub-group of Arizonans.
“What would you say are the top two or three most important environmental problems or issues today?”

Air pollution/quality/emissions 42%

Global warming 12%
Water /water pollution /clean water 12%
Energy issues/general 10%
P ll ti (general)
Pollution ( l) 10% Air Pollution
Percent
Top Sub-Groups
Oil/gas drilling 9% Native American 55%
SRP Age 55+ 54%
Climate change
g 8% Democrat Age 55+
55 53%
10-15 Year Resident 52%
Drought/lack of water 7% City Women 51%

Water supplies/drought 6% All Respondents 42%

Recycling 5%

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 7

 Arizonans have positive views of renewable
resources like solar and wind
wind.
“I am going to read you some different energy sources. For each one, please rate your feelings toward that energy source
using a zero to one hundred scale, where zero means you have a cold/very unfavorable feeling and one hundred means
you have a warm/very favorable feeling and fifty is neutral. Of course, you can choose any number between one and one
hundred depending on how you feel.”
Mean
Ranked by % 100

Solar Power 41% 71% 83

Wind Power 31% 57% 76

H d l ti
Hydro-electric 22% 46% 73

Natural Gas 16% 37% 68

Nuclear Power 14% 28% 57

Coal 4% 12% 45

% 100 % 76-100
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 8
 As we saw in 2007, voters place a high level of
importance on having reliable and affordable energy
energy.

“Thinking about Arizona’s energy and electricity needs, please tell me how important each of the following is to you
ll IIs it very iimportant,
personally. t t somewhat
h t iimportant,
t t nott very iimportant
t t or nott att all
ll iimportant
t t tto you?”
?”

2011 95% 100%

Having energy that is reliable
2007 88% 99%
2011 87% 99%
Having energy that is affordable
2007 78% 99%

Using energy more efficiently in 2011 82% 98%

our homes and businesses 2007 76% 97%

Using more clean sources of energy 2011 75% 95%

that do not pollute our air and water 2007 80% 97%
% Very Important % Important
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 9
 There is strong agreement that Arizona should start
replacing coal with other energy sources.
sources

“Now I would like to read you a few statements about energy. For each one, please tell
me if you agree or di ith th
disagree with thatt statement...”
t t t ”

We should start replacing coal

with other energy sources like 61% 79%
wind and solar power.

Even with modern technology,

coal-burning power plants pollute 40% 67%
more than other energy sources.

Having more affordable electricity

is not worth the pollution caused 33% 63%
by coal burning power plants.

% Strongly Agree % Total Agree

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 10
 Three-quarters of voters reject the idea that
renewable energy is unreliable,
unreliable including majorities
across the political spectrum.
“Now I would like to read you a few statements about energy. For each one, please tell
me if you agree or disagree with that statement...
statement...”

Renewable energy like wind and solar power is too unreliable to be a

significant part of our energy supply.
85%
73% 70%
64% 58%
45% Strongly
48% Strongly
41%
Strongly
32% Strongly
30%
25%
9% S
15%
Strongly
l 10%
15%
4%
Strongly Strongly Strongly

Total GOP IND DEM

(36%) (30%) (32%)
Total Agree Total Disagree
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 11
 Nearly three-quarters of Arizonans prefer investing
in renewable energy over investing in pollution
control equipment for coal-burning power plants.
“Now, air quality standards are being updated to reduce the amount of nitrogen oxide, mercury, sulfur and other pollutants
being emitted into the air
air, much of which comes from coal
coal-burning
burning power plants.
plants Therefore,
Therefore the two major electricity
providers in Arizona are facing a choice in how they produce electric power.”
“Please tell me which approach you would prefer - should the electricity providers…”

Invest more in renewable

energy, like wind and solar
power and transition from
p
coal-burning power

Invest in pollution control

equipment and continue to
generate power from
coal-burning plants
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 13
Majorities of all partisan sub-groups are more likely
to support investing in renewables.
renewables

“Please tell me which approach you would prefer - should the electricity providers invest in…”

84% 79%
77%
56% 53%
32% 36%

12% 10% 12%

GOP IND DEM Tea Party Non-Tea Party

(36%) (30%) (32%) (29%) (64%)

Renewable Energy Pollution Control

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 14
 Large majorities of both APS and SRP
customers favor investing in renewables over
investing in pollution control.
“Please tell me which approach you would prefer - should the electricity providers invest in…”

74% 70%

18% 20%

APS SRP
(39%) (34%)
Renewable Energy Pollution Control
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 15
The majority of Arizonans believe that investing in
renewables will create new jobs in the state.
state
“And, if Arizona did invest more in renewable energy and move away from coal-burning
power
power, do you think that
that…”

Will Create New Jobs Percent

Under $20K 74%
Native American 69%
White Democrat 68%
Democrat College Plus 67%
Will Not APS Customer/ Under $60K 66%
Affect Jobs Will C
Create
eate
Independent College Plus 66%
20% New Jobs Town/Rural Women 66%
54% Democratic Women 65%
Independent Women 65%
Will Cut Women/College Plus 65%
Jobs
12% Less than 15 Year
Unsure/ 64%
Resident/Women
Refused
10% SRP Age 55+ 64%
Lose Some Age 55-64 63%
Jobs/Gain Democrat 63%
Some Jobs
4% All Respondents 54%

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 16

Over half of voters say that moving away from coal-
burning power will increase their electricity rates.
rates
“And, if Arizona did invest more in renewable energy and move away from coal-burning power, do you
think that will increase OR decrease the rates you pay for electricity, or would it not have much impact
one way or the other?”

Increase Percent
Republican
p Men 71%
Republican 67%
SRP Age 55+ 67%
Men Over $80K 66%
Not Much Increase 15+Year Resident/Men 65%
Impact 57% Tea Party 65%
19% Men College Plus 64%
SRP Over $60K 64%
Town/Rural Men 64%
Decrease Age 55-64 63%
17% Independent Men 63%
Less that 10 Year Resident 63%
Don't $80K-$100K 62%
Know
7% All Respondents 57%

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 17

 Importantly, by a two-to-one margin, those
who think their electricity rates will increase
as a result of transitioning to cleaner energy
still support that change.
“Please tell me which approach you would prefer - should the electricity providers invest in…”

93%
80%
61%

27%
4% 10%

Rates Will Increase Rates Will Decrease No Impact On Rates

(57%) (17%) (19%)

Renewable Energy Pollution Control

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 18
 In fact, nine-in-ten Arizonans say they would be
willing to pay more to increase the amount of
energy coming from renewable sources.
“Now,
Now, let
let’s
s say that electricity prices did increase – What is the most you would be willing to pay in higher
electricity prices per month to increase the amount of our energy needs which are met by renewable
sources like wind and solar power?”

91%

34%
22%
14% 9% 12% 6%
Total 15 Dollars 10 Dollars 5 Dollars 1 Dollar 50 Cents None/
Willing to or More or Less Oppose
Pay
P More
M Increase
I

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 19

 Over half of APS and SRP customers are
willing to pay at least $10 more per month.
month

“Now, let’s say that electricity prices did increase – What is the most you would be willing to pay in higher electricity prices
per month to increase the amount of our energy needs which are met by renewable sources like wind and solar power?”

APS SRP
(40%) (33%)
Some Amount More 90% 90%
$10 or More 56% 58%

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 20

 Not surprisingly, income level plays a
significant role in determining how much
extra Arizonans are willing to pay.

“Now, let’s say that electricity prices did increase – What is the most you would be willing to pay in higher electricity prices
per month to increase the amount of our energy needs which are met by renewable sources like wind and solar power?”

Under $20K-
$ $40K-
$ $60K-
$ $80K-
$
$100K+
$20K $40K $60K $80K $100K
Some Amount More 88% 96% 89% 88% 90% 96%
$10 or More 43% 58% 51% 45% 68% 75%

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 21

 The focus groups tested
dozens of potential ways to
talk about the change from
relying on coal-burning
power plants to increasing
the use of energy sources
like wind and solar
solar. Based
on the respondents’
reactions we then tested
four that seemed to
resonate most strongly
strongly.
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 23
 Nearly half of Arizonans say the phrase “transition
to clean energy”
energy gives them the most favorable
impression of this change.
“There are actually a number of ways to talk about the approach of investing more in renewable energy and moving away from
coal-burning power. Which one phrase would give you the most favorable impression of this change? Is it that Arizona…”

T
Transition
iti tot clean
l energy

Shift to clean energy

Rebuild our energy supply

Phase out coal plants

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 24

 We saw in the focus
groups that voters did
not initially understand
the connection
between the potential
change at the power
plants and how that
could affect the ability
to pump water to
residents of their area.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 25

 Two-thirds of voters side with a rebuttal message
to allegations that transitioning to clean energy
will cost Arizonans more for water.
“And let me read you two view points about this and tell me which one comes closer to
your own, even if neither
ith one exactly
tl matches
t h your views.”
i ”

Arizona has plenty of choices in how it

prod ces the power
produces po er to pump
p mp water
ater to its
citizens. Rather than relying on coal, we should
instead use cleaner sources like solar or wind
energy,
gy or conserve water so that less needs to
be pumped from the Colorado River.

These power plants not only keep our lights

and air conditioning running,
running but provide the
power to pump much of our water to us.
Shutting them down will mean higher electric
bills and higher water bills for home owners,
small businesses and farmers.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 26

 Republicans are divided on the issue, while
Independents and Democrats continue to side with
transitioning to renewable energy.
“And let me read you two view points about this and tell me which one comes closer to
your own, even if neither
ith one exactly
tl matches
t h your views.”
i ”

74% 77%

48% 47%

21% 18%

GOP IND DEM

(36%) (30%) (32%)

Use Cleaner Sources Shutting Down Means Higher Bills

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 27
 We also tested a wide range of messages in
supportt off th
the proposal,
l a number
b off which
hi h were
refined based on the focus groups. Many of
these rate strongly with Arizonans
Arizonans.

“I am going to read you some arguments that

people have made in favor of investing in
renewable energy and moving away from
coal-burning
lb i power. After
Aft I read d each
h one,
please tell me whether the argument is very
convincing somewhat convincing,
convincing, convincing not too
convincing or not at all convincing as a
reason to support
pp this proposal...”
p p

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 28

 Giving Arizona healthier air and keeping
the state economically competitive are
the two strongest messages.
“We should invest in renewable energy and move away from coal because…”

Tier 1 Messages: 47% Very Convincing- 44% Very Convincing % Very Convincing

Transitioning from coal-burning power plants to clean and renewable energy

sources will g
give Arizona healthier air,, reduce asthma and lung
g disease,, and
ultimately save lives.

Arizona has some of the best renewable energy resources in the nation but is
behind neighboring states in attracting new clean energy-related business and
manufacturing.
f t i Wind,
Wi d solar
l and d geothermal
th l are Arizona-based
Ai b d resources that
th t
will never run out and that will help keep the state economically competitive.

The priorities we set now will impact future generations of Arizonans. We

should move away from coal,
coal one of the oldest and dirtiest sources of energy
energy,
and move toward cleaner air and a stable, reliable source of abundant energy.

These power plants were built in the nineteen sixties and seventies and do not
have the most modern p pollution controls. Rather than spending
p g hundreds of
millions of dollars to upgrade an old power plant, we should instead invest in
cleaner, more modern energy sources, like wind and solar.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 29

 These messages also resonate with voters.
“We should invest in renewable energy
gy and move away
y from coal because…”
Tier 2 Messages: 43% Very Convincing- 40% Very Convincing % Very Convincing

Coal-burning power plants are one of the biggest industrial users of water in Arizona.
Each year, these plants use more water than all the homes and businesses in the city of
Flagstaff do in three years. We could save this water by shifting to clean, renewable
energy and phasing out these coal burning power plants.

Burning coal releases a number of toxic pollutants, including sulfur, mercury, nitrogen
and soot particles into our air. These pollutants cause birth defects, learning disabilities,
increased numbers of heart attacks and asthma attacks
attacks, and more hospital admissions
admissions.

Installing pollution control equipment on existing coal-burning power plants will cost
over eight hundred million dollars. Plus, it will INCREASE the amount of our electricity
coming from coal and release MORE pollutants like mercury, nitrogen and sulfur into our
air.
i We
W should
h ld invest
i t in
i clean
l wind
i d andd solar
l power instead.
i t d

China has recently attracted twice as much investment in clean energy technology as the
United States and is adding one hundred thousand clean energy jobs a
year. Transitioning to clean energy will help Arizona and the United States be leaders in
this fast growing industry, and not fall farther behind.

We should not continue to locate polluting power plants on tribal lands. The air in
nearby towns has higher ozone levels than Los Angeles - without any of the traffic. We
need to ensure Arizona’s
Arizona s electric utilities act responsibly, invest in cleaner power
sources, and help re-train local workers with the skills they need for the jobs of the
future.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 30

 While still effective, these messages don’t pack
quite the same punch
punch.
“We should invest in renewable energy and move away from coal because…”

%V
Very C
Convincing
i i
Tier 3 Messages: 39% Very Convincing- 32% Very Convincing

Replacing coal-burning power plants with more efficient clean and renewable energy
sources will help create thousands of new jobs in one of the fastest growing industries
in the country and improve Arizona’s economy.

One of the coal-burning power plants that produces Arizona’s electricity, the Four
Corners Power Plant, is the largest source of nitrogen oxide in the entire country - a
chemical that forms harmful ozone
ozone.

It will mean jobs for Arizonans. Experts estimate investing in producing clean energy
instead of mining and burning coal could create thousands of good-paying jobs for
companies manufacturing and installing these new energy technology products.

Renewable energy sources like wind and solar contribute less than one percent of our
energy needs today in Arizona. We need to increase the amount of our power that
comes from clean,, renewable sources instead of keeping
p g coal plants
p open.
p

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 31

 These messages are not effective.
“We should invest in renewable energy and move away from coal because…”

Tier 4 Messages: Less than 36% Very Convincing

% Very Convincing

Accordingg to the National Park Service,, a major

j cause of the
haze and air pollution clouding the view in Grand Canyon
National Park and nearby wilderness areas is pollution from
these coal-burning power plants.

Coal-burning power plants are the single largest source of the

pollution that causes climate change, which scientists say will
lead to more severe droughts, storms, and heat waves.

Renewable energy sources like wind and solar contribute less

than one percent of our energy needs today in Arizona. Our
electricity providers are not doing enough, especially when
their plan for the future is to keep these coal plants operating
for another thirty years.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 32

We also tested a number of messages that are in
opposition
iti to
t the
th proposal. l None
N off these
th
rationales against the transition resonate with
voters
voters.

“I am going to read you some arguments that

people have made against investing in
renewable energy and moving away from
coal-burning
lb i power. After
Aft I read d each
h one,
please tell me whether the argument is very
convincing somewhat convincing,
convincing, convincing not too
convincing or not at all convincing as a
reason to oppose
pp this proposal...”
p p

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 33

 Opposition messages do not resonate as
strongly with Arizonans
Arizonans.
% Very % Total
“We should not move away from coal because…” Convincing Convincing

Closing down these power plants will cost hundreds of jobs on struggling Indian
reservations in rural Arizona and New Mexico,
Mexico where there are few opportunities for
other jobs. Nearly three-quarters of the workers at one of the coal burning power 23% 58%
plants are Navajo, and hundreds more work in coal mines that feed the plants.
Coal is abundant, affordable, and available here. That’s why almost half of
y over the last ten y
America’s electricity
as the next largest energy source.
years was produced by
y coal - twice as much
22% 55%
By closing the older power plants and installing the pollution control upgrades at
the newer ones, we can reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide by 36 percent, mercury
by 61 percent, and carbon emissions by 30 percent. We can continue to use 20% 64%
reliable affordable coal while having cleaner,
cleaner healthier air at the same time.
time
Coal continues to be one of the most affordable ways to generate electricity.
Requiring expensive pollution control upgrades or forcing utilities to close down
coal-burning power plants and look for cleaner sources of energy will cost 20% 49%
g
hundreds of millions of dollars and lead to higher electricity
y bills for customers.
Utilities in Arizona are investing as aggressively as possible in clean and renewable
energy. But wind and solar energy are not stable or developed enough to meet the
ongoing power needs of our state.
19% 56%
One analysis
y says
y water rates could increase three hundred ppercent in the next six
years, if the coal burning power plants are closed and water providers are forced to
find other energy sources to pump water.
19% 51%
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 34
 Arizonans say scientists and the American
Lung Association are the most credible
messengers on this issue.
“I'm going to read the names of some people and organizations that might speak out about this issue, and
for each one, please tell me whether or not you would consider that person or organization to be a
believable source of information about this issue.”

Scientists from Arizona Universities 49% 87%

The American Lung Association 45% 85%
Doctors and Nurses at St. Joseph's Hospital 40% 81%
National Park Service 39% 84%
Park Rangers at the Grand Canyon and Other National Parks 32% 76%
Conservation Organizations 28% 69%
Salt River Project 25% 81%
Arizona Public Service 25% 71%
Central Arizona Project 24% 67%
Farmers and Ranchers 23% 75%
Navajo and Hopi Tribal Leaders 20% 70%
Coal Miners 17% 57%
Governor Jan Brewer 10% 47%
Arizona Corporation Commission 7% 58%
% Very Believable % Believable
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 36
 Top Five Messengers by Party and Provider- % Very Believable

Republican Independent Total Democrat APS SRP

Scientists from American Lung Scientists from Scientists from Scientists from
Arizona Association Arizona Arizona Arizona
Universities 50% Universities Universities Universities
38% 63% 53% 42%
Scientists from
National Park Arizona American Lung National Park American Lung
Service Universities Association Service Association
31% 48% 57% 48% 38%

American Lung Doctors and Doctors and American Lung Doctors and
Association Nurses at St. Nurses at St. Association Nurses at St.
30% Joseph’s Joseph’s 47% Joseph’s
Hospital Hospital Hospital
Doctors and 43% 50% Doctors and 37%
Nurses at St. Nurses at St.
Joseph’s National Park National Park Joseph’s National Park
Hospital Service Service Hospital Service
29% 41% 49% 40% 34%

Farmers and Park Rangers at Park Rangers at Park Rangers at Park Rangers at
Ranchers the Grand the Grand the Grand the Grand
27% Canyon Canyon Canyon Canyon
31% 41% 32% 29%
“I'm going to read the names of some people and organizations that might speak out about this issue, and
for each one, please tell me whether or not you would consider that person or organization to be a
believable source of information about this issue.”
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 37
This is a “transition” to clean, renewable energy.

Tapping into concern about air quality resonates –

messages that connect to public health and messengers
such as the American Lung Association are highly credible.

Arizonans are more positive about solar and highlighting the

fact that the state is falling
g behind its neighbors
g in the
clean energy economy despite its natural asset also
resonates. The jobs/economic benefits are very credible.

Framing the issue in light of updated air quality standards is

important. Some action will be taken – it should be to
renewable energy.

Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 38

There are a wealth of messages that are compelling. Most
prominently:

• Public health (both positive & negative formulations);

• Future generations;
• Renewable resources but behind other states / jjobs;; &
• It is a waste to spend millions on updating an old coal
plant.

The messages that should NOT be used are evoking climate

change, attacking the utilities, and air quality at Grand
Canyon.

Women, seniors and college-educated R’s and I’s are a key

“swing” audience.

There are some voters that are not worth trying to

persuade: namely, older GOP men.
Arizona Energy ~ February 2011 39
Phone: (303) 433-4424
433 4424 • Fax: (303) 433-4253
433 4253
Web: [Link]

Phone: (510) 451-9521 • Fax: (510) 451-0384

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