Greeting:
Good afternoon defense committee and everyone attending this defense room. My name is Lan
and my topic is about the fuzzy risk assessment in choosing the appropriate transportation
mode and destination port. The content covers the problem statement, objectives of the study,
the methodology and the system design to conduct the study and finally the result and the
conclusion.
Introduction:
I would like to present the problem to conduct the study the objectives as well as the scope of
this study [nhìn slide nói]
Scope (nói thêm vô cho kĩ)
- Transportation time includes the transit time, the loading and unloading time, time for
doing customs clearance and time for travelling.
- The cost includes pick-up fees, port charges, handling fees, freight cost, local charges
from the destination ports and consolidation or deconsolidation fees. All the fees must be
charged based on the Incoterms 2020.
- Demand: deterministic demand (already known from each country) – can present more
about the data collect ntn (the severity caused by risk is calculate by the increased in
logistics cost over the total cost in transportation process
Talk about the key reference:
My study is mainly about choosing the appropriate transportation mode and finding the optimal
port in each destination country, by conducting specific analysis of different criteria combined
with using methods to identify the risk, conduct risk assessment and risk mitigation. After doing
research, my key reference is the study of [nhìn slide nói]. I used the methods applied in this
study to conduct the study for the problem of company X
[Transportation mode selection problem: There are different modes of transportation (sea,
air, rail, truck) and each transportation modes has its own characteristics → under different
circumstances and based on specific analysis of different criteria (lead time, cost, distance,
quantity of goods and risks on the transportation way) to figure out the best transport mode
Risk management in transportation 1) Risk identification: Identify the risks that can occur
during the transportation activities 2) Risk measurement and assessment: Determine the risk
level that could be harm and prevent transportation activities 3) Risk mitigation: Propose some
strategies to take actions in order to reduce the consequences caused by potential risks and
reduce the likelihood that those risks could happen again]
System design – method comparison: [nhìn slide nói]
System design [nhìn slide nói]
Result:
The results presented above is the optimal solution resulted from ZOGP. Based on the objective
function, the goals and the constraints in the ZOGP, it can be concluded that the solution
achieved is the most appropriate solution among other.
For DE model, Rostock is the second cheap port in transportation cost and second small in
overall risk magnitude. However, deviation the real total lead time over the limited lead time is
the smallest among other alternatives.
For FR and NL models, the optimal solutions hold the second position in the order from smallest
to largest in overall risk magnitude. Besides, the transportation cost and total lead time are the
smallest.
For MY model, the solution has the smallest lead time and still does not exceed the budget
limited by the company.
For CN and SI models, although the overall risk magnitude nearly of the two solutions reach the
acceptable overall risk magnitude but they are still not the largest ones. Besides, the total lead
time transporting to the ports are the fastest and the costs are also acceptable in comparison
with other alternatives. In addition, the costs do not exceed the budget for shipping to China and
Singapore.
Based on the priority in the relative weights of each criteria and the real data collected that is
used to solve the problem, it can be concluded that the results achieved are the optimal
solutions.
Conclusion:
The objective of this thesis is to build a framework to find out the optimal transportation mode
for shipping with the appropriate port at each destination country to minimize cost, lead-time and
risk occurring during the shipping journey. The proposed framework can help to find out the
most appropriate solutions. Although the selected ports with the corresponding transportation
modes are not the solutions that can give the cheapest transportation cost, the shortest lead-
time or the lowest overall risk magnitude, they are the best solution complying with the relative
weights of the decision criteria and decision makers’ needs. According to results from the study,
that prove that the solutions are the optimal choices instead of the as-is practice that Company
X is applying based on the requirements of the users and the impacts in the real operations of
transportation. This study also helps to provide the decision makers with a tool to make an
appropriate decision in transportation. This tool can help decision makers in case that they have
to consider many alternatives with a large number of decision criteria.
From the study, it can be concluded that the proposed framework can 1) handle both qualitative
and quantitative decision criteria 2) calculate the risk magnitudes by FRAM-DEA 3) calculate
relative weights of each decision criterion based on decision makers’ assessment and 4)
minimize the sum of undesirable deviations of each objective by using ZOGP model.
Q1:
Risk magnitude is calculated based on likelihood and severity attributes. When the risk
magnitude is high, it indicates the likelihood of occurrence of risk scenario and the severity level
of damage or penalty the risk may cause. In this study, the range from 1 to 5 is appropriate to do
the analysis because the acceptable risk magnitude limited by the user is 2. The deviation
between 1 and 2 as well as the deviation between 2 and 5 is not to large. Therefore, doing the
result analysis by changing the acceptable overall risk magnitude within this range is suitable.