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Student Travel Time & Tourist Spending Probabilities

The document contains two sections that calculate probabilities related to travel times and tourist spending using z-scores and standard deviations. Section A calculates the probabilities of different home-to-school travel times for students with an average of 90 minutes and standard deviation of 8.5 minutes. Section B calculates the probabilities of domestic tourist spending amounts with an average of 20,000 pesos and standard deviation of 2,650 pesos per trip.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
82 views2 pages

Student Travel Time & Tourist Spending Probabilities

The document contains two sections that calculate probabilities related to travel times and tourist spending using z-scores and standard deviations. Section A calculates the probabilities of different home-to-school travel times for students with an average of 90 minutes and standard deviation of 8.5 minutes. Section B calculates the probabilities of domestic tourist spending amounts with an average of 20,000 pesos and standard deviation of 2,650 pesos per trip.

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A.

The average travel time of a student from home to school is 90 minutes with standard deviation of
8.5 minutes. 1.) What is the probability that a student’s home-to-school travel time is over 100 minutes?
P (x>100) z-score= = 1.18
Area of probability of 1.18 is 0.88100 Area of Probability= 1-0.88100= 0.119

2.) What is the probability that a student’s home-to-school travel time is


either under 70 minutes or over 95 minutes?

P (70 > x > 95)


Zupper = = 0.59
Area of Probability of 0.59 is 0.72240
Area of Probability = 1 – 0.72240 = 0.2776
Zlower = = -2.35
Area of Probability of -2.35 is 0.00939
Area of Probability = 0.2776 + 0.00939 = 0.28699
3.) What is the probability that a student’s home-to-school
travel time is less than 60 minutes?
P (x < 110) z-score = = -3.53
Area of Probability of -3.53 is 0.00021

4.) What is the probability that a student’s home-to-school travel time is between 65 minutes and 110
minutes?

P (65 < x < 110)


Zupper = = 2.35
Area of Probability of 2.35 is 0.99061
Zlower = = -2.94
Area of Probability of -2.94 is 0.00164
Area of Probability = 0.99061 - 0.00164 = 0.98897

B. A domestic tourist from Luzon spends an average of P20,000 with standard deviation of P2,650
every time she goes to certain tourist destinations in Visayas.
1.) What is the probability that a domestic tourist spent between P15,000 and P18,000?

P (15,000 < x < 18,000)


Zupper = = -0.75
Area of Probability of -0.75 is 0.22663
Zlower = = -1.89
Area of Probability of -1.89 is 0.02938
Area of Probability = 0.22663 - 0.02938 = 0.19725
2.) What is the probability that a domestic tourist spent over P27,000?

P (x > 27,000) z-score = = 2.64


Area of Probability of 2.64 is 0.99585
Area of Probability = 1 – 0.99585 = 0.00415
3.) What is the probability that a domestic tourist spent
P30,000 at the least?

P(x > 30,000) z-score = = 3.77


Area of Probability of 3.77 is 0.99992
Area of Probability = 1 – 0.99992 = 0.00008

4.) What is the probability that a domestic tourist spent


either below P12,500 or above P29,500?

P (12,500 > x > 29,500)


Zupper = = 3.58
Area of Probability of 3.58 is 0.99983
Area of Probability = 1 – 0.99983 = 0.00017
Zlower = = -2.83
Area of Probability of -2.83 is 0.00233
Area of Probability = 0.00017 + 0.00233 = 0.0025

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The process involves calculating the z-scores for P15,000 and P18,000. For P18,000, the z-score is \( z = \frac{18,000 - 20,000}{2,650} = -0.75 \) with a probability of 0.22663. For P15,000, the z-score is \( z = \frac{15,000 - 20,000}{2,650} = -1.89 \) with a probability of 0.02938. The probability of spending between these amounts is \( 0.22663 - 0.02938 = 0.19725 \).

The low probability of spending over P27,000, with a z-score of 2.64 and probability of 0.00415, suggests that most tourists tend to spend within a closer range to the mean of P20,000. This indicates constrained spending habits or budgetary limits among the tourists, despite any wealth or convenience factors .

To calculate the probability of a travel time being below 70 minutes or above 95 minutes, calculate the z-score for each threshold. For 95 minutes, the z-score is \( z = \frac{95 - 90}{8.5} = 0.59 \) with a probability of 0.72240. For 70 minutes, the z-score is \( z = \frac{70 - 90}{8.5} = -2.35 \) with a probability of 0.00939. The combined probability is \( (1 - 0.72240) + 0.00939 = 0.28699 \).

The probability is extremely low because the z-score for spending over P30,000 is very high, calculated as \( z = \frac{30,000 - 20,000}{2,650} = 3.77 \). High z-scores represent values far from the mean, indicating rarity. The area under the normal distribution beyond 3.77 is 0.00008, showing it's a rare event .

To determine the probability that a student's home-to-school travel time is over 100 minutes, we calculate the z-score for 100 minutes using the formula \( z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \), where \( X \) is 100, \( \mu \) (mean) is 90 minutes, and \( \sigma \) (standard deviation) is 8.5 minutes. This yields a z-score of 1.18. The corresponding probability from the z-table for a z-score of 1.18 is 0.88100. Thus, the probability that a student's travel time is over 100 minutes is \( 1 - 0.88100 = 0.119 \).

To compute this probability, find the z-scores for both P12,500 and P29,500. The z-score for P29,500 is \( z = \frac{29,500 - 20,000}{2,650} = 3.58 \) with a probability of 0.99983. For P12,500, the z-score is \( z = \frac{12,500 - 20,000}{2,650} = -2.83 \) with a probability of 0.00233. Adding the probabilities gives \( 0.00233 + (1 - 0.99983) = 0.0025 \).

The probability of travel time under 60 minutes is calculated using the z-score: \( z = \frac{60 - 90}{8.5} = -3.53 \). The area associated with this z-score is 0.00021, indicating it's a rare occurrence for students to have such short commutes due to being significantly below the average travel time .

To find the probability between 65 and 110 minutes, we use the z-score method for both values. For 110 minutes, \( z = \frac{110 - 90}{8.5} = 2.35 \) with a probability of 0.99061. For 65 minutes, \( z = \frac{65 - 90}{8.5} = -2.94 \) with a probability of 0.00164. The probability range is found by subtracting the lower from the upper probability: \( 0.99061 - 0.00164 = 0.98897 \).

High z-scores indicate that the observed spending is significantly higher than the mean, suggesting a rare event in the distribution context. For example, with a z-score of 3.77 for spending P30,000, the probability is 0.00008, indicating spending such a high amount is unusual compared to the average spending level .

It is crucial to consider below and above standard levels to capture the entire scope of possible spending, especially when assessing risks and opportunities in financial planning. This dual approach helps determine how probable extreme low or high expenditures are, affecting decisions in pricing strategies and customer targeting .

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