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Job Market and Consumer Behavior Analysis

The document contains 6 questions related to probability and statistics concepts. Question 1 involves probability calculations related to job market statistics. Question 2 involves probability calculations about consumer calling habits. Question 3 involves probability calculations about randomly selecting companies from a catalog sales list. Question 4 provides customer arrival data from a restaurant and involves calculating probabilities using a Poisson distribution. Question 5 involves calculations related to a uniform distribution of household insurance spending. Question 6 involves calculating standard deviation using normal distribution properties and wind speed data.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
426 views2 pages

Job Market and Consumer Behavior Analysis

The document contains 6 questions related to probability and statistics concepts. Question 1 involves probability calculations related to job market statistics. Question 2 involves probability calculations about consumer calling habits. Question 3 involves probability calculations about randomly selecting companies from a catalog sales list. Question 4 provides customer arrival data from a restaurant and involves calculating probabilities using a Poisson distribution. Question 5 involves calculations related to a uniform distribution of household insurance spending. Question 6 involves calculating standard deviation using normal distribution properties and wind speed data.

Uploaded by

vvinaybhardwaj
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© All Rights Reserved
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Q.1) The Wall Street Journal reported some interesting statistics on the job market.

One statistic is that 40% of


all workers say they would change jobs for “slightly higher pay.” In addition, 88% of companies say that there
is a shortage of qualified job candidates. Suppose 16 workers are randomly selected and asked if they would
change jobs for “slightly higher pay.”

a. What is the probability that nine or more say yes?


b. What is the probability that three, four, five, or six say yes?
c. If 13 companies are contacted, what is the probability that exactly 10 say there is a shortage of qualified job
candidates?
d. If 13 companies are contacted, what is the probability that all of the companies say there is a shortage of
qualified job candidates?
e. If 13 companies are contacted, what is the expected number of companies that would say there is a shortage
of qualified job candidates?

Q.2) An increasing number of consumers believe they have to look out for themselves in the marketplace.
According to a survey conducted by the Yankelovich Partners for USA WEEKEND magazine, 60% of all
consumers have called an 800 or 900 telephone number for information about some product. Suppose a random
sample of 25 consumers is contacted and interviewed about their buying habits.
a. What is the probability that 15 or more of these consumers have called an 800 or 900 telephone number for
information about some product?
b. What is the probability that more than 20 of these consumers have called an 800 or 900 telephone number for
information about some product?
c. What is the probability that fewer than 10 of these consumers have called an 800 or 900 telephone number for
information about some product?

Q.3) Catalog Age lists the top 17 U.S. firms in annual catalog sales. Dell Computer is number one followed by
IBM and W.W. Grainger. Of the 17 firms on the list, 8 are in some type of computer-related business. Suppose
four firms are randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that none of the firms is in some type of computer-related business?
b. What is the probability that all four firms are in some type of computer-related business?
c. What is the probability that exactly two are in non-computer-related business?

Q.4) A restaurant manager is interested in taking a more statistical approach to predicting customer
load. She begins the process by gathering data. One of the restaurants hosts or hostesses is assigned
to count customers every five minutes from 7 P.M. until 8 P.M. every Saturday night for three weeks.
The data are shown here. After the data are gathered, the manager computes lambda using the data
from all three weeks as one data set as a basis for probability analysis. What value of lambda did she
find?
Assume that these customers randomly arrive and that the arrivals are Poisson distributed. Use the
value of lambda computed by the manager and help the manager calculate the probabilities in parts
(a) through (e) for any given five-minute interval between 7 P.M. and 8 P.M. on Saturday night.
a. What is the probability that no customers arrive during any given five-minute interval?
b. What is the probability that six or more customers arrive during any given five-minute interval?
c. What is the probability that during a 10-minute interval fewer than four customers arrive?
d. What is the probability that between three and six (inclusive) customers arrive in any 10-minute interval?
e. What is the probability that exactly eight customers arrive in any 15-minute interval?

Q.5) Suppose the average U.S. household spends $2,100 a year on all types of insurance. Suppose the figures
are uniformly distributed between the values of $400 and $3,800. What are the standard deviation and the height
of this distribution?
a) What proportion of households spends more than $3,000 a year on insurance?
b) More than $4,000?
c) Between $700 and $1,500?

Q.6) Data accumulated by the National Climatic Data Center shows that the average wind speed in miles per
hour for St. Louis,Missouri, is 9.7. Suppose wind speed measurements are normally distributed for a given
geographic location. If 22.45% of the time the wind speed measurements are more than 11.6 miles per hour,
what is the standard deviation of wind speed in St. Louis?

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The expected number of companies indicating a shortage of qualified candidates is calculated by multiplying the probability that a single company reports a shortage (88%) by the number of companies (13). This yields E(X) = 0.88 * 13 = 11.44 .

A baseline standard deviation indicates wind speed variability, essential for understanding climate patterns, planning infrastructure, and assessing risk. This standard deviation helps estimate wind conditions' impact on structural design and ensures appropriate safety margins in construction .

By using λ (the expected number of customer arrivals in a set time), the manager can estimate peak periods, scale staffing levels to meet demand effectively, and reduce wait times. Understanding customer distribution patterns helps optimize resource allocation and improve service quality .

The standard deviation for a uniform distribution between a and b is given by (b-a)/√12. For expenses ranging $400 (a) to $3,800 (b), the standard deviation is (3800-400)/√12, which calculates to 980/√12 or approximately 282.84 .

Given a Poisson distribution, the probability that no customers arrive (X=0) can be calculated using P(X=k) = (e^(-λ) * λ^k) / k!, where λ is the average number of arrivals per interval. For k=0, this reduces to P(X=0) = e^(-λ).

The shortage of qualified candidates suggests that the hiring likelihood becomes highly competitive among companies. With 88% reporting shortage, the competition will affect hiring strategies, potentially increasing hiring timelines and necessitating incentives to attract limited qualified applicants .

The probability that exactly two out of four firms are non-computer-related can be calculated using binomial probability. The combination of 2 computer-related (p=8/17) and 2 not computer-related (p=9/17) is given by (combin 4,2) * (8/17)^2 * (9/17)^2 = 6 * (64/289) * (81/289), resulting in approximately 0.268 .

The probability can be computed using a cumulative binomial distribution: P(X < 10) = ∑ P(X=k) for k=0 to 9, where n=25 and p=0.60. Each P(X=k) = (25 choose k)*(0.6^k)*(0.4^(25-k)) must be calculated and summed .

To find the probability that none of the selected firms is in a computer-related business, we identify that there are 9 firms not related to computers (17 total firms - 8 computer-related firms). The probability of selecting a non-computer firm is 9/17. Selecting four such firms without replacement requires multiplying consecutive probabilities: (9/17) * (8/16) * (7/15) * (6/14) = approximately 0.0676 .

The manager should consider the average rate (λ) of arrivals, consistent time intervals, variation in typical customer flow patterns, and special events or promotions affecting arrivals. Proper data collection and consistent assumptions of randomness are crucial for reliability in Poisson analysis .

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