Caribbean Examinations Council

(CXC)
Caribbean Advanced Proficiency
Examination (CAPE)

Integrated Mathematics

Name of Candidate:

Centre Number

Registration Number:

Year of Examination:
 Project Title:
Exploring the Nature of Probability

2
 Table of Contents

Title Page Number

Introduction.................................................................................................................................................4

Research Method.........................................................................................................................................5

Organization of Data...................................................................................................................................6

Findings.......................................................................................................................................................7

Mathematical Knowledge/Analysis of Data................................................................................................9

References.................................................................................................................................................11

Conclusion.................................................................................................................................................12

3
 Introduction

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Probability is

quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty

(0<P(A)<1).The higher the probability of an event, the more certain that the event will occur. In

general, Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen /Total number of

outcomes. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. If the coin is unbiased, then

the two outcomes ("head" and "tail") are both equally probable; the probability of "head" equals

the probability of "tail". Since no other outcomes are possible, the probability is 1/2 (or 50%), of

either "head" or "tail". In other words, the probability of "head" is 1 out of 2 outcomes and the

probability of "tail" is also 1 out of 2 outcomes, expressed as 0.5 when converted to decimal.

However, it is not unusual for one flipping a coin to observe that one side lands

uppermost with more frequency than the other side. It may be by chance that this phenomenon

occurs, or, perhaps the manner in which the coin is flipped has an effect on its outcome. But,

according to the probability theory, if a sequence of individual events is influenced by other

factors, such as friction, it will exhibit certain patterns, which can be studied and predicted.

This project aims to explore the nature of probability to determine whether or not some

varying surfaces on which a coin is flipped do in fact influence the outcomes, to allow us to

observe a relation between theoretical probability and experimental probability from values

obtained.

4
 Research Method

A standard Jamaican twenty dollar coin was chosen for this experiment. The coin was flipped

and, the number of heads and tails were recorded for 50 attempts on:

i. The ground

ii. A table

iii. Parts (i) and (ii) were repeated but with a cloth on the ground and on the table

Limitations:

Choosing to use the different methods for carrying out these experiments as described in

the research method, took into account that different surfaces on which the flipped coin lands

may have significant influences on the results of these flips. The textured surface of the cloth

covered table may have a particular influence on the outcomes. Further, then ripples in the cloth

may also influence these outcomes. The way in which the coin is flipped and/ or how many times

it flips may also prove to be a factor which influences the results. The degree that the coin is

flipped depends on the motion of the thumb hence, another factor which may prove to be a

limitation.

5
 Organization of Data

After each experiment the frequencies of the side landing uppermost were recorded in

tabular form.

In each of these experiments, the number of times the coin would flip before landing on

the surfaces was not predetermined, nor was any other deliberate consideration applied in the

subsequent flips. The experiments were done in groups so as to avoid bias in each experiment.

The following table shows the result of the experiments carried out.

Surface Heads Tails Total

Ground 22 28 50
Ground with cloth 25 25 50
Table 25 25 50
Table with cloth 27 23 50
Total Frequencies 99 101 200

6
 Findings

The following comparative column chart illustrates the variations of frequencies for obtaining

either heads or tails on the face of a coin when the coin is flipped on the bare ground and on the cloth

covered ground.

Comparative Column Chart

30
25
Frequencies

20 Ground
15 Ground with cloth
10
5
0
Heads Tails
Face of Coin

Fig. 1.0

Figure 1.2 illustrates the frequencies for obtaining either heads or tails on the face of a coin when

the coin is flipped on a table and subsequently a cloth covered table.

7
 Comparative Bar Chart

Tails
Faces of Coin

Table with cloth

Table
Heads

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Frequencies

Fig. 1.2

The following line graph illustrates the variations among the frequencies for heads.

Variations among frequencies - Heads

30

25

20
Frequencies

15

10

0
Ground Ground with cloth Table Table with cloth
Heads

Fig. 2.0

Fig. 2.1 illustrates the variations among the frequencies for Tails.

8
 Variations among frequencies - Tails

30

25

20
Frequencies

15

10

0
Ground Ground with cloth Table Table with cloth
Tails

Mathematical Knowledge/Analysis of Data

Coin toss is nothing but the experiment of tossing a coin. When the probability of an

event is same as zero, then the event is said to be impossible. When the probability is same as

one then the event is said to be sure or certain. When we toss a coin we can only have two types

of outcomes: heads or tails. At no point of time we can have both heads and tails as outcomes

together whenever we flip a coin. We know that probabilities lie between 0 and 1. We always

consider having fair coins being tossed. Choosing to use the different methods for carrying out

these experiments as described in the research method, took into account that different surfaces

on which the flipped coin lands may have significant influences on the results of these flips. The

textured surface of the cloth covered table may have a particular influence on the outcomes.

Further, then ripples in the cloth may also influence these outcomes. The way in which the coin

is flipped and/ or how many times it flips may also prove to be a factor which influences the

9
results. The degree that the coin is flipped depends on the motion of the thumb hence, another

factor which may prove to be a limitation.

This simple experiment was intended to shed some light on the theory of probability. The

theory of probability is a mathematical theory for modeling events or phenomenon under

conditions of uncertainty.

50 flips on each of the surfaces selected should allow for simple comparison of the observed and

theoretical frequencies.

Using the principle of relative probability, the following table shows the probability distribution

for 50 attempts on the ground and the theoretical probability of obtaining either heads or tails.

Side of Coin Heads Tails

Relative Probability on Ground 22/50 = 0.44 28/50 = 0.56
Relative Probability on Ground with cloth 25/50 = 0.50 25/50 = 0.50
Relative Probability on Table 25/50 = 0.50 25/50 = 0.50
Relative Probability on Table with cloth 27/50 = 0.54 23/50 = 0.46
Theoretical Probability for All 25/50 = 0.50 25/50 = 0.50
Table 1.1 showing the comparison between theoretical and relative probability.

Comparisons of the differences of the observed and theoretical frequencies for 50 flips of the

coin on the surfaces described should be considered as sufficient for an explanation of any

significant variation in determining whether the coin was biased in favour of a particular face/

side. Barring any significant variation among the relative frequencies, it may be deduced that the

coin is not biased.

The combined results of all four experiments or attempts to arrive at an overall probability for

each side, is shown in the table below:

10
 Side of coin Heads Tails
99/200 = 101/200 =
Relative Frequency 0.495 0.505
Table 1.2 showing the Relative frequency for both sided of the coin

The above table clearly shows that the relative frequency of each side of the coin is close

to the true probability (0.5) when the number of trials (200) is fairly large. This is evidence to

show that the unbiased nature of the coin holds true even though there were differences among

the observed frequencies for the six experiments.

11
 References

Bahall, Dipchand (2013). PURE MATHEMATICS Unit 2: FOR CAPE EXAMINATIONS.

England: Macmillan Publishers Ltd.

“Probability”, 2014. Retrieved from the MATH is FUN database

<[Link]

“Probability”, 2017. Retrieved from the Wikipedia database.

<[Link]

“Theoretical probability”, 2017. Retrieved from the Probability Formula database.

<[Link]

Campbell, Elizabeth (2008). PURE MATHEMATICS for CAPE. Vol. 2. Kingston: LMH

Publishing Ltd.

12
 Conclusion

Based on the results recorded in Table 1.1 and Table 1.2, it can be deduced that the

probability if receiving a head or a tail when a coin is flipped is approximately ½ or 50%. The

experiments conduction can be considered simplistic but reasonably suitable for exploring the

nature of probability. The number of flips may be considered effective for determining the

relative frequencies and relative probability for the experiments. If the number of flips should

increase, then the observed frequencies should become closer to the theoretical frequencies.

Further statistical analyses can explain variations between the observed and theoretical

outcomes. These experiments may be refined using other surfaces onto which the coin was

flipped.

13