Top 200 African Banks Overview 2019
Top 200 African Banks Overview 2019
REVIEW
TOP
AFRICAN BANKS
The race to transform
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Contents
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of the coronavirus era in November, lanthropist Bill Gates once said: public markets
when spiraling debts forced the “Banking is necessary, banks are
country to miss a payment to re- not”. James Mwangi, the CEO of
imburse its creditors. Kenya’s Equity Bank, told The 23 FINTECH
But there are echoes that will be Africa Report last September that Is there a bubble in
familiar. Profitability for Africa’s while its investment in the bank’s Nigeria?
banks in 2018 had been hit by an- technological overhaul made him
other major event, the collapse of feel relatively confident on that 26 ENERGY FINANCE
commodity prices in 2015, which had front, the arrival of ‘Big Tech’ on More wary of betting
worked its way through the system.
South African banks were being
the scene was keeping him awake
at night. We will be tracking the
on barrels
dragged down by their sovereign big competitors from China and
rating. Nigeria’s central bank was Silicon Valley this year, especially 28 INTERVIEW
running a foreign-exchange policy during our new event, The African Ade Ayeyemi
that beggared belief (and, perhaps, Financial Industry Summit, which
made the average person on the will be held online on 10 and 11
street poorer too, stoking inflation March 2021.
because of an unwillingness to fund We will also be undergoing big
the import of foodstuffs). changes this year at The Africa
Plus ça change.... Report – with the digital trans-
Another of the key themes evoked formation not sparing us either.
COVER ILLUSTRATION: ADOBESTOCK
back then seems even more rele- Our paywall will go up in March,
vant today. “Telecoms companies and we want all the readers of
and fintechs are snapping at banks’ these special PDF downloads to
heels, carving out strips from what get early-bird access. To register,
used to be the preserve of general email us at feedback@theafricare-
service banks.” This is a growing [Link], and we will send you
risk, especially for mid-tier banks, an exclusive deal for yourself or
with an ever growing number of your company.
rates in recent years, yield-hunting investors withdrew with a deadline of end-2018. The multi-year banking crisis
from Africa. The knock-on for banks has been limited, that ensued – with 420 institutions failing – has been much
partly because governments are dependent on financing criticised, including by President Nana Akufo-Addo, who
from domestic financial institutions. But while that works called the Bank of Ghana’s response “lax”.
out OK for banks in the short term – see the stellar results Chinese investment has provided some respite. Likewise,
for 2017 – the result is industry, services and agriculture all the cutting of US interest rates – the first time it has happened
struggling to get loans, which drags the economy down. since the financial crash of 2009 – could precipitate a new
wave of investors seeking yields in frontier and emerging
Neither a borrower nor a hoarder be markets. That in turn could see a fresh influx of cash and
Nigeria’s central bank has pushed through a law requiring offer banks some space to consolidate and grow.
loan-to-deposit ratios to be 60% by 20 September 2019 – a But there are other rocks in the water, especially for
move it hopes will force banks to start lending rather than those banks stuck in the middle. The mobile revolution
hoarding. Kenyan lawmakers attempted the same, this time has allowed a new swath of ‘branchless’ banks to enter
using an interest-rate cap, which most analysts agree has the market. South Africa’s TymeBank is just one of
200
Zenith Bank
100 Nigeria $635m
0 National Bank
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 of Egypt $564m
Egypt
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30
20
TOTAL PROFITS ($bn)
10
30
0 25.2 25.3
SOURCE: THE AFRICA REPORT
1-40
Rank Rank Net interest
2019 2018 Diff. Bank Country Total assets income Loans Deposits
1 1 0 Standard Bank Group South Africa 147 249 579 7 292 065 77 583 846 94 977 952
3 2 -1 Standard Bank of South Africa South Africa 94 170 938 4 833 500 64 498 753 70 077 791
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19 22 +3 Crédit Populaire d’Algerie* Algeria 16 572 240 593 405 10 399 924 11 473 672
27 30 +3 United Bank for Africa Group Nigeria 13 343 082 844 517 4 699 881 9 176 589
35 41 +6 United Bank for Africa Nigeria Nigeria 9 840 176 373 467 3 325 815 6 642 056
41-80
Rank Rank Net interest
2019 2018 Diff. Bank Country Total assets income Loans Deposits
41 48 +7 Dev. Bank of Southern Africa* South Africa 7 204 757 349 603 ND ND
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59 69 +10 Bank of Alexandria Egypt 5 306 498 310 858 2 132 978 4 394 461
72 82 +10 National Bank of Kuwait – Egypt Egypt 4 099 613 154 579 2 155 562 2 965 205
81-120
Rank Rank Net interest
2019 2018 Diff. Bank Country Total assets income Loans Deposits
81 84 +3 Oragroup SA Togo 3 778 994 220 590 2 184 335 2 544 411
89 92 +3 Société Générale Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire 3 310 494 222 668 2 210 851 2 678 902
90 104 +14 Barclays Bank of Kenya Kenya 3 170 435 308 362 1 730 972 2 024 300
94 109 +15 Crédit Agricole Egypt Egypt 2 987 521 167 012 1 139 393 2 450 564
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99 96 -3 Housing and Development Bank Egypt 2 830 736 179 405 759 124 1 888 375
100 128 +28 African Banking Corp. Holdings Botswana 2 804 726 287 490 1 154 113 1 631 797
101 100 -1 Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Kenya 2 785 543 279 112 1 158 039 2 189 016
102 126 +24 Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank – Egypt Egypt 2 755 883 139 226 ND 2 225 002
103 90 -13 First National Bank of Namibia Namibia 2 728 384 110 494 1 975 259 2 183 944
104 118 +14 Suez Canal Bank Egypt 2 644 548 53 722 752 894 2 155 115
105 108 +3 Banque Atlantique – Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire 2 613 619 122 649 1 347 106 1 566 947
108 101 -7 Ecobank Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire 2 554 113 147 590 1 313 592 1 511 930
109 138 +29 Export Development Bank of Egypt Egypt 2 489 300 64 740 1 113 678 1 936 054
110 106 -4 Banco Comercial e de Investimentos Mozambique 2 479 773 228 128 959 365 1 868 555
111 122 +11 CBZ Bank Zimbabwe 2 449 933 80 394 486 996 2 079 155
112 112 0 National Microfinance Bank Tanzania 2 442 823 211 570 1 398 271 1 860 871
113 117 +4 Banco Int. de Moçambique Mozambique 2 434 042 212 203 809 665 1 787 137
114 132 +18 I&M Bank Kenya 2 426 722 152 546 1 440 805 1 867 421
115 123 +8 Commercial Bank of Africa Kenya 2 392 243 206 918 1 185 873 1 918 111
116 110 -6 Standard Chartered Bank Mauritius Mauritius 2 344 832 81 557 942 156 1 440 203
118 116 -2 First National Bank of Botswana Botswana 2 272 726 204 846 1 414 620 1 605 491
119 120 +1 Gulf Bank Algeria* Algeria 2 214 140 116 945 1 325 974 1 723 537
121-160
Rank Rank Net interest
2019 2018 Diff. Bank Country Total assets income Loans Deposits
121 111 -10 Standard Bank Namibia Namibia 2 193 079 114 805 1 539 482 1 743 999
122 119 -3 BNP Paribas El Djazair Algeria 2 193 007 144 759 1 366 361 1 718 746
124 107 -17 Arab Tunisian Bank Tunisia 2 129 382 81 860 ND 1 546 660
129 127 -2 Coris Bank International Burkina Faso 2 004 906 98 667 1 109 664 1 218 539
130 145 +15 Citibank Nigeria Nigeria 1 995 800 52 530 296 621 1 053 401
133 152 +19 Awash International Bank Ethiopia 1 921 119 146 046 1 079 265 1 510 370
134 139 +5 Société Ivoirienne de Banque Côte d’Ivoire 1 861 431 114 737 1 232 498 1 357 082
135 165 +30 Barclays Bank of Ghana Ghana 1 852 340 134 010 660 009 972 131
136 140 +4 CBAO Groupe Attijariwafa Bank* Senegal 1 815 144 131 868 1 214 167 1 375 185
137 141 +4 Afriland First Bank* Cameroon 1 802 114 94 439 1 109 809 1 316 688
138 146 +8 Union National Bank Egypt Egypt 1 806 076 53 658 710 012 1 533 104
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139 144 +5 Investec Bank Mauritius Mauritius 1 785 547 48 626 1 034 269 1 036 836
141 158 +17 Stanbic Bank Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 1 769 228 67 736 387 344 1 508 054
142 135 -7 NSIA Banque Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire 1 763 071 109 049 1 215 872 1 256 421
145 150 +5 Société Générale Sénégal Senegal 1 618 774 127 893 1 052 105 1 341 975
146 156 +10 Standard Bank Mozambique Mozambique 1 613 002 149 271 456 694 1 193 384
147 167 +20 Standard Bank Mauritius Mauritius 1 587 170 47 479 228 032 1 387 631
148 169 +21 Dashen Bank Ethiopia 1 578 986 62 954 801 480 1 250 901
149 164 +15 Ecobank Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 1 558 669 73 776 696 780 1 220 641
150 151 +1 Société Générale Cameroun Cameroon 1 556 079 119 799 1 123 360 1 218 350
151 153 +2 Barclays Bank of Botswana Botswana 1 555 907 127 241 1 081 571 1 083 394
152 154 +2 Standard Chartered Bank Botswana Botswana 1 508 439 46 879 684 076 1 118 516
153 133 -20 Banco de Desenvolv. de Angola Angola 1 506 084 267 720 309 253 15 583
154 142 -12 Bank of Africa – Benin Benin 1 498 166 68 533 737 577 1 007 684
156 - - BNP Paribas South Africa South Africa 1 473 206 3 974 129 515 908 096
157 168 +11 Central Africa Building Society Zimbabwe 1 469 030 107 530 779 650 1 167 230
158 157 -1 Stanbic Bank Uganda Uganda 1 456 126 100 148 677 383 1 050 920
159 173 +14 Fidelity Bank Ghana Ghana 1 449 459 145 004 301 260 820 444
160 136 -24 Standard Bank de Angola Angola 1 427 254 117 230 172 905 1 084 536
2018 results in thousands of US dollars; *in italics 2017 results; NA: not available
161-200
Rank Rank Net interest
2019 2018 Diff. Bank Country Total assets income Loans Deposits
161 160 -1 Bank of Africa – Burkina Faso Burkina Faso 1 375 999 68 979 892 811 990 145
165 184 +19 Wema Bank Nigeria 1 339 324 102 412 691 000 1 011 607
166 171 +5 Stanbic Bank Botswana Botswana 1 323 107 47 982 1 051 494 1 092 274
169 174 +5 Misr Iran Development Bank Egypt 1 292 675 33 145 386 839 1 115 186
171 179 +8 Banque de Dévelop. du Mali* Mali 1 282 841 63 382 646 226 848 783
172 177 +5 Stanbic Bank Ghana Ghana 1 277 860 96 035 532 300 881 899
173 185 +12 Stanbic Bank Zambia Zambia 1 235 115 125 742 ND 940 088
174 190 +16 Standard Chartered Bank Ghana Ghana 1 227 710 100 666 268 153 885 969
178 143 -35 Banco Caixa Geral Totta de Angola Angola 1 166 544 ND 257 136 901 135
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179 196 +17 Zenith Bank Ghana Ghana 1 147 595 87 199 150 971 701 749
180 162 -18 Grindrod Bank South Africa 1 138 147 9 797 457 343 1 043 976
182 189 +7 National Bank of Kenya Kenya 1 123 800 77 934 466 321 58 762
184 - - First Banking Corp. Holding Zimbabwe 1 113 977 65 199 405 508 627 900
186 182 -4 Société Générale Burkina Faso* Burkina Faso 1 091 632 47 534 731 669 728 754
192 183 -9 Mercantile Bank South Africa 1 027 925 63 872 683 931 721 201
193 - - Al-Nile Bank for Comm. and Dev.* Sudan 1 004 173 55 135 ND ND
194 176 -18 Bank of Africa – Côte d’Ivoire Côte d’Ivoire 1 003 855 57 129 524 460 660 085
200 178 -22 FMB Capital Holdings Malawi 971 019 138 399 243 300 359 148
2018 results in thousands of US dollars; *in italics 2017 results; NA: not available
PROFILE
GODWIN
EMEFIELE
‘For us to achieve
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growth, banks
must lend’
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The first governor of the Central term – there were four other contenders – pointed to how
close the two men have become.
Bank of Nigeria since the return They are an odd couple: the stern general-turned-ci-
to civilian rule to get two five-year vilian politician with a sceptical view of the business
terms, Emefiele is a crucial player world paired with the veteran commercial banker, alum-
in Buhari’s economic strategy nus of Harvard University and erstwhile enthusiast for
market economics. “Emefiele is a transaction banker,”
says Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Financial
By PATRICK SMITH in Abuja Derivatives Ltd. “He looks at things from the point of
view of net revenue from funds, interest rates spreads,
For three months this year, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) provisions for bad loans, and he has a background in
governor Godwin Emefiele was the sole ambassador of accounting.”
Nigeria’s economy in the interregnum between the elections Emefiele’s relationship to Buhari has provoked criti-
and the announcement of President Muhammadu Buhari’s cism because the institution is supposed to be politically
new cabinet. Emefiele used the opportunity to set out his independent. When Buhari announced a ban on the use
priorities: macroeconomic stability, financial inclusion, of official sources of foreign exchange for food imports
more lending and mortgages, higher productivity in the in August, his office said that “the president has directed
factories and on the farms, and lower inflation. In May, the central bank to stop providing foreign exchange for
Buhari’s quick reappointment of Emefiele for a second importation of food.”
Will the the food import ban boost loans to small businesses. “For us to
production much? Nonso Obikili, TWO-TERMER achieve growth, those whose respon-
chief economist of the Lagos daily 4 August 1961 sibility it is to provide credit must be
Business Day, is sceptical: “It’s not Born in Lagos seen to perform that responsibility,”
a good strategy. If you’re looking at Emefiele said after a meeting of the
large imports – what about fuel? If 1986 Earned a master's bank’s monetary policy committee in
you look at the list of banned imports, in business administration May. He added that the committee was
Nigeria is not self-sufficient in many specialised in finance from the looking at a mechanism to limit the
of these things.” University of Nigeria, Nsukka capacity of banks to put customers’
Achieving food self-sufficiency deposits into government securities.
2001 Named deputy managing
would take four to five years, at least, Nigerian banks have been told they
director of Zenith Bank
says Rewane. “Access to forex is not should use at least 60% of their de-
the only factor. […] There is the need 4 June 2014 Appointed central posits as loans to businesses by the
for more rural roads, availability of bank governor by then-president end of September; the ratios in Kenya
inputs, logistics, security and the Goodluck Jonathan and South Africa are 76% and more
risks of export smuggling.” than 90%, respectively.
David Cowan, chief Africa econo- 16 May 2019 Confirmed Rewane says other policies will be
mist at Citigroup, has been tracking for a second term as needed to boost the private sector.
Nigeria’s rice imports, which are central bank governor “CBN activity is not enough. […]
mainly from Thailand. Soon after There is a need for moral suasion
Emefiele banned forex for rice imports and financial incentives.”
in 2015, Thai exports to Nigeria dropped precipitously
but rose sharply to neighbouring Benin. ‘Targeting the wrong thing’
With a population of about 12 million, Benin’s rice But the policy for which Emefiele has been most crit-
imports quickly found their way across the border to icised is the adoption of multiple exchange rates and
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Nigeria’s market, which is almost 20 times bigger. The use of reserves to defend the naira’s value – a policy
Nigerian government response was to announce a “partial objective he shares with Buhari. “If you want to stimu-
closure” of the border, with extensive security checks on late local production […] you ensure imports are more
all trucks to intercept the smuggled rice. expensive and exports cheaper,” says Rewane. “We’re
targeting the wrong thing. […] We should be targeting
Penalties, regulations the market structure.”
For Rewane and Cowan, the episode emphasises the Cowan sees big limitations in Emefiele’s current stance
limits of the central bank’s powers over economic policy. on the naira. But he adds: “The central bank has overseen
Spending on food imports in Nigeria, now running at an enormous devaluation of the exchange rate over the
about $4bn a year, has been growing, partly due to local past five years and has mitigated its worst effects.”
supply disruptions and security problems such as the Effective monetary policy should pre-empt crises rather
insurgency in the north-east and herder-farmer clashes. than try to solve them, he adds. “The job of the central
“Emefiele sees his role as not just about exchange bank governor is to take away the booze before the party
rates, monetary policy and price stability,” says Rewane. gets started. […] That didn’t happen when the last oil
“He has a development-finance agenda.” The aim is to boom – with prices of over $100 a barrel or more – and
promote growth and local production. In March, the the hangover was pretty severe.”
central bank cut rates and has been using new penalties Charles Robertson, chief economist for Renaissance
and regulations to get banks to lend more to small and Capital, argues that falling prices will push down the value
medium-sized businesses, with mixed results. of the naira and growth rates. A quick deal in the China-
Nigerian banks are reluctant to lend US trade war could bolster oil prices.
to all but the biggest private compa- For Emefiele, so much will depend
nies. Loans from banks and other
financial institutions are about 21%
‘IT’S NOT JUST on factors beyond his control. If world
oil prices head back towards $100 a
of Nigeria’s gross domestic product, ABOUT PRICE barrel, the naira could growth trend
compared with about 60% in South towards 8% per year. But if they fall
Africa. STABILITY. HE HAS below $50, growth and investment
Banks in Nigeria prefer to put their
cash in high-yielding government
A DEVELOPMENT- will tumble again. And like the naira,
the battle-hardened Emefiele will be
securities, rather than make riskier FINANCE AGENDA’ in the firing line again.
MIKE HUTCHINGS/REUTERS
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SOUTH AFRICA
PERSONAL AND BUSINESS BANKING TOTAL INCOME CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANKING
Compound Annual Growth Rate: TOTAL INCOME BY PRODUCT (%)
South Africa 6% - Africa regions 11% - International 20%
R80bn 16
22
R64bn 22 17 2018
R48bn
21 21
R32bn 17 17
2017 23
R16bn
24
Hollingworth argues that the bank has a robust A key part of Standard Bank’s strategy lies in expanding
outlook. Operating in 20 sub-Saharan countries outside its digital presence to tap into that growth. The bank has
of South Africa, it is geographically well diversified, the scale to multiply small bets on digital banking in new
with strong liquidity ratios, he says. It has shown a markets and launched digital-only banks in Botswana,
“remarkable” ability to retain profitability even during Zambia and Zimbabwe in June, to be followed by Nigeria
economic stress. The bank’s return on equity increased in September. It rolled out digital offerings in Uganda,
to 18% in 2018 from 17.1% a year earlier. Hollingworth Tanzania, Ghana and Kenya in the first quarter of this
highlights that personal banking is especially strong: year, and in Côte d’Ivoire in 2018. In its 2019 first-half
“This is a bank with a rising trajectory of profitability.” results, Standard Bank reported that in-person transac-
Growth in costs is outstripping growth in income, tions dropped by 13% year on year and that nearly all
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however, and there is a need for greater cost con- transactions are now through digital services.
trol, he argues, pointing out that tighter cost control Digitalisation is a double-edged sword because it also
would mean more scope to invest in growth markets. intensifies competition. Banking branches are among
“They need to keep an eye on their efficiency goals,” the first casualties. In June, Standard Bank increased
Hollingworth says. its branch closure plan in South Africa to 104 branches,
Standard Bank continues to shed its non-African from 91. Another 1,200 Standard Bank employees could
operations in order to focus more on the continent. In lose their jobs in the closures.
August, it sold all of its remaining stake in Standard
Bank Argentina to the Industrial and Commercial Bank New digital players
of China (ICBC). Announcing half-year results and a According to a report from professional services firm
5% increase in profit, chief executive Sim Tshabalala PwC, South African retail banking is set to experience a
told reporters that he has his eye on West Africa: “We’re “significant uptick” in competition due to digitalisation.
HEADLINE EARNINGS AND RETURN ON EQUITY
also CAGR
saying that we’re: 10%
(2013_2018) quite comfortable to contemplate PwC says that new digital entrants in South Africa are
appropriately priced acquisitions to the extent that they unconstrained by legacy operating systems and will be
Rm Headline earnings Return on equity (ROE)
might fit with our risk appetite.” The bank obtained an able to establish an “almost unassailable advantage”
30 000licence in Côte d’Ivoire in 2016 and is launch- 20over the universal banks as they are able to launch new
operating
ing operations
24 000 in Senegal, the second-largest economy 16products in as little as three to six months. Established
104
in the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest banks often take between 12 and 24 months
18 000 12
Africaine regional grouping. In the first half to launch new products, PwC explains. One
of 2019, Standard Bank’s earnings rose in its
12 000 8 of the new digital players in South Africa,
Africa6 operations
000
and stayed relatively flat 4
TymeBank, is targeting one million customers
in South Africa. by the end of 2019.
0
According to Tshabalala, prospects branches will
0 shut in
2013 2014 2015 2016 for2017 2018 Preston at Mergence says that Standard
sub-Saharan Africa overall are good, with South Africa as part of Bank has passed its peak in terms of infor-
19 986 17 137 22 187 23 009 26 270the27 new865plans released
economic growth expected to accelerate mation technology (IT) spending and that
by Standard Bank in
from 2.9% in 2018 13.0
14.2 to 3.5%15.6in 2019. More17.1 June,
15.3 18.0
an increase from IT amortisation costs will decline. But it is
than a third of the countries in the region the previously too early to judge the success of the bank’s
are expected to grow at more than 5% per announced 91 digitisation strategy and the heavy costs
annum, he says. involved, he says.
The digital strategy also aims at deepening trade STANDARD BANK’S 2018 PERFORMANCE IN AFRICA
and financing links with China. In June Standard Bank
– Industrial and Commercial Bank China (ICBC) is a
minority shareholder – launched its Africa China Agent
Proposition, which connects African importers and
Chinese exporters. The aim is to help African importers
in sourcing goods from China, while easing cashflow
pressures on African businesses. Chinese suppliers
can get a letter of credit for Standard Bank’s Chinese
partner ICBC, which will enable them to supply goods
before payment. Standard Bank’s head of Africa-China Strong performance*
integration, Manessah Alagbaoso, says current arrange- Moderate performance*
ments where importers in Africa have to pay suppliers Focus to improve*
upfront before goods are shipped is unsustainable for Single representation/
African businesses.
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Standard Bank is also investing in smaller fintech com- change. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has
panies as a means to keep tabs on innovations in the to walk a tightrope between popular demand for land
financial sector. In August, it purchased an undisclosed expropriation without compensation on one hand and the
stake in startup Nomanini, which links up informal fears of international investors on the other. A report on
retailers, their customers and banks. In October 2018, land restitution by an inter-ministerial committee led by
Standard Bank also invested in Founders Factory Africa, deputy president David Mabuza was submitted in June.
which is focused on incubating fintech startups across the Standard Bank chief executive Tshabalala is right to
continent. They announced their first five investments highlight the strengthening of property rights (see box)
in June of this year. as a prerequisite to South Africa’s sustained growth,
The home market remains key to Standard Bank’s says Indigo Ellis, Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft
financial performance. Preston agrees that South in London. “But we do not expect South Africa to
African banks have shown they can continue to gener- strengthen property rights over the next couple of years,
ate positive, if unexciting, earnings in tough economic rather to confirm their slow degradation, particularly
conditions. But to do better than that, the banks need a in relation to land reform.”
State electricity utility Eskom presents special dangers
HEADLINE EARNINGS AND RETURN ON EQUITY
CORPORATE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2013-2018: 10% too. Ramaphosa plans to unbundle Eskom into three
entities – generation, transmission and distribution.
Headline earnings Return on equity (%) This is the “real elephant in the room” but Ramaphosa’s
R30bn 20 “hands are tied”, Ellis says. She expects very little private
R24bn 16 investment to be forthcoming for the utility.
Christopher Marks, head of emerging markets
R18bn 12
EMEA at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, argues that
R12bn 8 South Africa is not standing on a cliff edge. He points
out that Moody’s still has a stable outlook on South
SOURCE: STANDARD BANK
R6bn 4
Africa – and there is still an intermediate step available
0 0 if the agency was to lower that. “Moody’s have been
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
very patient with Ramaphosa and are doing their best
R17bn R17.1bn R22.2bn R23bn R26.3bn R27.9bn
to give him the benefit of the doubt,” he says. “The
14.2 13.0 15.6 15.3 17.1 18.0 executioner is not yet coming.”
Regardless of the ratings outcome, Hollingworth says that investment grade rating is “not coming back tomorrow
South Africa has been heading in the right direction since if they lose it. It takes time.”
former president Jacob Zuma stepped down in February The darkest cloud could even turn out to have a
2018. The banks “weathered the Zuma storm and if they silver lining. A Moody’s cut might benefit Standard
can do that, they will do even better under Ramaphosa.” Bank and the South African economy in the long term,
But if Moody’s downgrades South Africa tomorrow, Hollingworth argues. A cut would “put pressure on
there will be an investor “exodus”, Hollingworth says. President Cyril Ramaphosa to deliver. It might en-
Loss of the investment-grade rating “wouldn’t be the courage the government to be even more pro-active
biggest surprise in the world,” however. The bank and committed to economic reform.”
seems well prepared and markets have had plenty of In that case, the hit for Standard Bank in terms
time to digest the prospect, he says, though he does of financing costs could ultimately turn out to be a
not believe the risk is fully priced in by markets. The price worth paying.
F. MAVUNDA/GALLO VIA GETTY
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TAR: How do you see the economic
outlook for South Africa? Will South not be able to generate the resources
Africa hold on to its last investment required for these larger and longer- How successful has the bank been
grade credit rating with Moody’s? term projects unless we implement in reducing costs?
The South African economy the urgent reforms listed above. We are very serious about cost
will remain sluggish for the rest discipline. As a result, our South
of the year, with the International How is your blockchain project in African operations were able to
Monetary Fund forecasting 1.5% foreign-exchange payments progress- accelerate cost-cutting initiatives
growth and the Reserve Bank ing? When will your blockchain become in the second half of 2018. However,
expecting only 1.2%. Standard Bank interoperable with that of Industrial this was not enough to offset other
is optimistic for a moderate recovery and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)? pressures, such as lower income
of the South African economy over The cloud-based blockchain from interest rates charged on loans.
the medium term. However, a return solution will go live in the second half That resulted in expenses growth
to sustained growth at a pace of 2019 and will initially support both exceeding revenue growth in 2018.
that can reduce unemployment Standard Bank and Stanbic Bank
and inequality will require more partner banks, customers and inter- Do you think that non-performing loan
comprehensive structural reforms, mediaries directly involved in trades, (NPL) levels in South Africa are likely
including reforms to stabilise as well as the interbank network to increase in the coming year?
and strengthen property rights. Swift. [...] We are hopeful that when Because risks have been height-
To set South Africa firmly on the blockchain system finally goes ened we have had to be stricter
the path to prosperity, our country live, it would foster straight-through on our risk acceptance criteria and
also requires new large-scale invest- have been tighter in certain market
1.5%
ments in infrastructure by both segments. So while we do think that
the public and private sectors. Major NPLs will rise, we are sure they
reforms of our primary, secondary, will remain well within risk appetite.
tertiary and vocational education Standard Bank is confident lending
systems, of the justice and health The IMF is forecasting sluggish growth in will pick up with the improved
systems, and of many other local, South Africa’s economy, while the Reserve economic outlook for South Africa.
provincial and national departments Bank is expecting only 1.2% Interview by DAVID WHITEHOUSE
INTERVIEW
LOGO OLUWAMUYIWA ADEYEMI FOR TAR
JIM OVIA
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‘Banks will surf the wave’
Zenith Bank’s co-founder and The weather is certainly improving for Nigeria’s
banks. There are signs of changing fortunes, including
chairman talks to The Africa Report a recovery in the oil price after the late 2015 collapse
about risks and rewards and the ability for the strongest banks to get out from
in the Nigerian banking sector under a pile of bad energy-related loans. Zenith – one of
Nigeria’s largest banks – has done just that. After ratings
agency Moody’s downgraded Zenith in late 2017, one
Interview by NICHOLAS NORBROOK in Lagos year later rival Fitch revised the bank’s rating upwards,
in large part due to Zenith’s solid blue-chip corporate
Jim Ovia’s office at Zenith Bank (#20)’s headquarters, loan business.
next to the Civic Centre in Lagos, dominates the lagoon The bank’s half-year audited results for 2019 show
that ultimately leads out to the Atlantic Ocean. As the gross earnings up 3% to N331.6bn ($916.7m), profits
photographer puts a good-natured Ovia through his before tax up 4% to N111.7bn, and a big jump in fees
postures, the sun starts to shift the stubborn clouds earned from mobile banking, which the bank puts down
that have left the roads in their usual sodden state. to “significant progress in our retail banking initiative”.
“The improvement [at Zenith Bank] no doubt mirrors But Moody’s also spotted another strength at Zenith: its
the recovery of the Nigerian economy,” says Jim Ovia. people. “Decision-making is well spread across a broad
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to sell more and more open-market operations securities creativity and innovation.”
that offer a high-yield, risk-free alternative for banks, That came to a grinding halt with the ‘over-exuberance’
effectively preventing them from handing out more of many Nigerian banks, which, with too much capital
loans to the real economy.” and not enough opportunity, piled into the stock mar-
With 30% of its loan book concentrated in oil and ket. They often invested in their own stocks to inflate
gas, is Zenith still too exposed to the energy sector? their price. The resulting financial crisis made clear to
“Not necessarily, because we have a robust risk-man- Ovia that “capital and liquidity are prerequisites for the
agement strategy”, says Ovia. “The outlook for global survival of any financial institution.”
oil demand is positive and, barring any significant It was a period that checked Ovia’s own ascension,
disruption to domestic crude production, there is not too. The CBN governor at the time of the banking crisis,
much to worry about.” Lamido Sanusi, passed regulations which prevented bank
Global investors are less convinced, with the share CEOs from running institutions for more than 10 years
price falling 33% in the last six months. Another sys- – a rule that affected both Ovia and Tony Elumelu, who
temic issue for African banks in general, and Zenith in was CEO of United Bank for Africa (#27).
particular, is their high amounts of ‘idle’ capital – large Ovia is also an entrepreneur in the telecoms space,
levels of liquidity. Some Nigerian bankers claim this founding Visafone in 2007 after buying up several oth-
is down to a lack of properly structured opportunities; er telecom operators. It was eventually sold to South
others attribute it to the high returns available at low Africa’s MTN in 2015. Might that have been a strategic
risk by lending to the government. But for Ovia, “It’s misstep? After all, MTN is now launching mobile-money
never a problem to have an adequate services in Nigeria, a serious threat
capital ratio – far better than the to banks like Zenith.
reverse. Opportunities do come, and
we shall continue to advance credit
‘THE OUTLOOK FOR Ovia recognises the risks, saying
that banks that are not innovative in
to various sectors of the economy, GLOBAL OIL DEMAND adopting digital services will suffer.
especially the non-oil sector.” He sees “a situation where many
The Zenith supremacy dates back IS POSITIVE […], banks will collaborate with fintechs
to a $4m bet that Ovia made with
some co-investors in the 1990s under
THERE IS NOT MUCH to smoothly surf the wave.” Given
his team-building nous, this will be
dictator Ibrahim Babangida. “The TO WORRY ABOUT’ a space to watch.
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DEBATE
Private equity
vs. public markets
Should investors looking to get the most out of their money be putting their
cash into listed shares or private-equity deals? The Africa Report talks to the
experts to find out the pros and cons
By DAVID WHITEHOUSE returns of 5.23% and 7.25% over 10 and 15 years, re-
spectively – slightly less than the 6.15% and 7.75% for
The choice between public and private markets is com- the MSCI Emerging Frontier Markets Africa index.
plex enough for investors in developed countries. The Still, private equity held up better in the fourth quarter
standard argument is that while private equity – investing of 2018 as public emerging markets tumbled, with a
in firms that are not listed on stock exchanges – out- 0.67% return in Africa versus a loss of 3.84% for the
performs over the long term, it is logical for investors MSCI Africa index. The association bases its figures
to give up some of this performance in return for the on the Africa Private Equity & Venture Capital Index,
liquidity that public markets provide. made up of 47 private equity and venture capital funds.
The calculations in Africa are a bit different. Figures
from the African Private Equity and Venture Capital Insufficient liquidity
Association (APEVCA) at the end of 2018 show that But the lack of that liquidity in many of Africa’s public
returns from public and private markets in Africa are markets changes the rules of the investment game. In
closely balanced, with private equity showing annual June, Sanjeev Gupta, executive director at the Africa
27
Finance Corporation (AFC), told The Annual exchange based in Abidjan, says that lack
Debate forum on African investment in of liquidity is “always used as a pretext” for
London that public markets in Africa are avoiding African public markets. Liquidity
suffering from a “very deep-rooted malaise”. in African markets is much better now than
There are plenty of consumer plays available, national stock markets five or 10 years ago, he argues. The idea
but that is at the expense of production, he make up the African that African markets lack liquidity is “too
said. “The continent’s productivity potential Securities Exchanges quick” of a conclusion, he says: “Lack of
is not represented in the capital markets.” Association, prompting liquidity is not a fatality.”
calls for a ‘super
That echoes the consensus among global Liquidity cannot be achieved by decree,
exchange’ on the
investors that sufficient liquidity does not Amenounvé tells The Africa Report, but
continent
exist in African markets and that it will not must be built over the long term, through
for the foreseeable future. According to Capital Markets wider choices of securities, new types of financial in-
in 2030, a study by PwC and the Economist Intelligence struments and liquidity contracts. Low free-float levels
Unit (EIU), fewer than 10% of survey respondents need to be increased, more stock splits are needed to
expect either South Africa or Nigeria to lead in terms cut the price of some shares and make them easier to
of initial public offering (IPO)-originating issuers by trade, and the lending and borrowing of shares has to
2030, with China and India forecast to dominate. The be facilitated, he says. The analyst research function
survey drew on 370 equity capital market participants in Africa also has to be developed. “There is still work
and was carried out in July 2018. The investors polled to do, and we will do it.”
considered liquidity by far the most important factor
in choosing an exchange to list. ‘Fear factor’
“There is zero reason to have 27 exchanges across At the AFC, Gupta still sees a dearth of strategies for
the continent. Zero,” Gupta argued. As with airlines, attracting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
he said, every country wants to have its own. A “super to public markets. Instead, he argues, there exists a
exchange” for Africa is needed, but Gupta sees no chance range of “subtle deterrents” to listing. In many parts of
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of that happening. In the meantime, the only practical the continent there is a “fear factor” around disclosing
way forward is for new exchanges to keep costs as low personal wealth and the uses to which that information
as possible by using new technology, he said. might be put. That implies a need for much greater
Edoh Kossi Amenounvé, chief executive of the Bourse flexibility in terms of disclosure requirements, he ar-
Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) regional stock gues. “Regulators won’t like to hear what I have to say.”
There is no obvious prospect of such flexibility being
granted. Disclosure is “a hurdle that entrepreneurs have
to get their heads around,” argues Nicky Newton-King,
former chief executive of the Johannesburg Stock
Exchange (JSE). “It’s the price of coming to capital
markets.” She can’t imagine any easing up of JSE
disclosure requirements. “It’s not how capital works.”
Newton-King says the JSE aims to end perceptions
it is an emerging market exchange. She wants it to be
considered on a par with London and New York. She says
cross-national themes such as green investing are the way
forward and sees potential in the development of green
and global exchange-traded funds. Yet she acknowledges
that South African institutional investors are “deeply risk
averse”, with large funds reluctant to invest in SMEs.
The PwC-EIU survey offered little comfort on the
prospects for achieving such a goal. In terms of ex-
changes that global issuers will be considering beyond
their home turf in 2030 for IPOs, Johannesburg was
mentioned by only 13% of respondents, behind Singapore
at 15%. Only 5% saw Nigeria as a possible destination.
No other African country even got a mention.
A growing South African economy is needed to create
new listings, Newton-King says. That requires
20
1
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ZMSE LUSE UGSE DAR NGSE CBSE NASE MUSE GHSE CASE BSM
the state balance sheet to be sorted out. There uncertainty – though e-commerce company Jumia’s
would be “significant implications” if South Africa’s listing this year on the New York Stock Exchange is
last investment-grade rating with Moody’s was lost, excluded from their figures.
she says. Newton-King estimates that she spends about Not many companies will follow Jumia’s example
40% of her time on issues that concern South Africa of listing on a developed market. Christopher Marks,
Inc., rather than the exchange. head of emerging markets EMEA at Mitsubishi UFJ
The Steinhoff corporate governance scandal has done Financial, draws a contrast between Africa and Russia.
little to improve the JSE’s prospects. Newton-King agrees In the Russian case, he says, the legitimisation that
that Steinhoff has left behind a feeling that regulation was achieved by corporate listings on the London
in South Africa has not worked. There’s still “quite a Stock Exchange was often as important as the cash
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bit of work to do” in terms of proving the exchange’s that was raised. “There aren’t that many pan-African
commitment to regulatory standards. It is a challenge candidates that need the legitimacy at this stage,” he
that the exchange can’t tackle alone. “Guardians of says. Management efforts to transform companies are
governance need to be more noisy,” she says. “When probably more important now, he argues.
things seem to be going well, boards should ask the Public markets in Africa face difficulties of scale and
hard questions.” have not shown that they are a “natural nursery” for
dynamic new companies, Marks argues. Public exchanges
Trading costs in Africa are “vulnerable to a high preponderance of
Newton-King points out that the JSE has much lower glamour trades” which in turn leaves investors vulnera-
execution costs than other African exchanges due to ble to disappointment, he says. César Pérez Ruiz, chief
economies of scale. According to the Bright Africa 2018 investment officer at Pictet, agrees, arguing that listed
report published by RisCura, limited pools of licensed companies in Africa are often state-owned enterprises
brokers in other African markets mean investors have and are not run for the benefit of shareholders.
very little scope to switch to a competitor. Yet the low Public markets in Africa remain “relatively shallow,”
volume of trades on African exchanges means that says Alexandre Alfonsi, a partner at Paris-based pri-
brokers charge more to cover costs. Egypt’s relative vate-equity advisory firm Axonia. Public markets give
high liquidity, in comparison with Nigeria, which has only the tip of the iceberg of investable businesses, he
a similar free float, is partly due to trading costs, the says. Private equity provides greater diversification:
report says. Overall, RisCura says that “the investment universe in private equity is
50
investors in Africa need to consider alter- so much bigger.” Axonia this year supported
native asset classes. the African private-equity manager EXEO
Capital raised by African issuers declined Capital in a $146m fundraising.
by 28% in the first half of 2019 to $341m, Stock market investors demand rising
according to Baker McKenzie law firm. share prices, while debt funding often re-
That was caused by an 80% drop in do- African private equity quires tough covenants from the company,
exits are running
mestic capital raising in Africa, with IPOs argues Michelle Kathryn Essomé, APEVCA’s
at a fairly stable level
raising just $85m, compared with $419m of up to 50 per year, chief executive. These may not be easy
a year earlier. Baker McKenzie attrib- according to the chief hurdles for a small African company to
utes the decline to political and economic executive of APEVCA overcome. Private equity can provide
financial, strategic and operational support with The unpredictability of events in many African
the potential to transform a company, Essomé says. countries makes finding the exit a “stop-go” process,
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Alfonsi likens investing in public markets to sitting Alfonsi says. Due diligence by potential buyers takes
in the back seats of a plane: “You don’t see what is longer than in developed markets, he points out. “People
happening in the cockpit.” In private equity, you can have to pioneer what makes sense for them.”
see the cockpit and the flight instruments, and talk to Private equity in Africa has come a long way since
the pilot. Private equity will “put the muscle and sweat the early 1990s when development finance institutions
in”, and appoint new management if needed, Marks would invest in government-backed projects.
says. Essomé points to Kenya’s Java House coffee shop Increased investment from pension and endowment
chain as an example of a small company that has been funds has reduced the concentration of development
able to achieve scale but wouldn’t have been able to do finance funding in private equity. The total value of
so without private equity. African private equity fundraising increased to $2.7bn
African private equity exits are running at a fairly in 2018 from $2.4bn the year before, APEVCA data
stable level of 40 to 50 per year, says APEVCA’s Essomé. shows, with information technology (19%), consumer
discretionary (15%) and consumer staples (13%) ac-
Boots on the ground counting for almost half of the total number of deals.
Essomé says that the most attractive opportunities now More specialised and targeted funds are emerging,
can be found in real estate, financial services, educa- such as the Mano River Transition Fund launched by
tion, consumer staples and discretionary spending. In Truestone in June. The fund will invest up to $50m in
geographic terms, she says, South Africa still leads, SMEs in Sierra Leone and Liberia.
while Nigeria has also developed a deep private-equity Ultimately, the choice between public and private
market. Egypt and Kenya are also promising markets routes may prove to be a false dichotomy. Sub-Saharan
that are attracting more interest, she says. Due dili- economies that are based on debt need to achieve a
gence for investments, Essomé adds, requires “boots transition to public markets, argues Amenounvé. Private
on the ground.” equity, rather than being in competition with public
The investment case for private equity in Africa markets, is a way to achieve this transition, he says.
can be compelling, but liquidity is the Achilles heel. Current exit routes will not be enough to support the
Finding an exit for private-equity investments in Africa volume of investment into Africa, Amenounvé says. In
is “a big question,” Alfonsi says. Possible paths are China, private equity helped to create the stock market,
an IPO – leading back to the liquidity constraints of he says. In Africa, likewise, “private equity will feed
public African markets – or a sale back to managers. the public market of the future.”
FINTECH
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Is there
a bubble
in Nigeria?
Telecoms firm MTN is going big into multinationals that have built scale and reputation over
the mobile-money sector. Will it crash time. But Interswitch’s ambition and valuation shows
that fintechs are gaining ground.
valuations or raise all boats in the Nigerian fintechs offer a broad range of financial
financial ecosystem? products to customers. Payment processing company
Flutterwave (see page 112); Lidya, which lends to small
By KANIKA SAIGAL and medium-sized enterprises (see box); online savings
platform PiggyVest; and money-transfer company Paga
Interswitch – a digital payments and commerce company are just some of the companies in Nigeria that have
from Nigeria – is planning to list on both the London created apps to make saving, spending, money transfer
and Nigerian stock exchanges by the end of the year. and access to credit easier.
The company has sought advice from international bank Now Nigeria is in the midst of a fintech revolution.
heavyweights including JP Morgan, Citi and Standard The drive towards financial inclusion includes a young,
Bank on the initial public offering (IPO). Estimated tech-savvy population and the prevalence of smartphones,
valuations for the company are as high as $1.5bn. creating an effective environment for new and nimble
Dual listings from Nigerian companies are usually fintech companies to take off. At the same time, the
reserved for the likes of telecoms company Airtel – large Central Bank of Nigeria has introduced a number of
initiatives. Critically, there was the National Financial Between January 2015 and June 2019, fintech com-
Inclusion Strategy creation of a sandbox for fintechs panies across Africa raised $320m, with the majority
to trial new products – products aimed to encourage focused on South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria according
access to finance for those that have been traditionally to data compiled by Disrupt Africa. And while there has
left out of the system. been exceptional growth in the sector – 60% in the last
This is an incredible about-turn by regulators and two years – this is only a drop in the ocean. Globally,
the government from 10 years ago when mobile money fintech companies raised $39.6bn from investors in
in Africa – particularly in East Africa – started to take 2018, up 120% on 2017’s numbers, according to data
off. Strong lobbying by the banks in Nigeria at the time company CB Insights.
prevented non-bank players from entering the financial
landscape like Safaricom had done in Kenya, for example. ‘Suitcase banking’
Many have the opportunity to flourish in an environ- But whether a bubble is forming boils down to some-
ment where incumbent financial services are unwilling to thing as straightforward as the definition, says Ameya
invest in expensive bricks and mortar. Fintechs are also Upadhyay, principal at VC firm Flourish, a spin-off of
buoyed by the rising middle class, supportive regulation the Omidyar Network investment company.
and the drive towards financial inclusion. “Look solely at the amount of cash flowing into
In the past few years, a number of accelerator pro- the Nigerian fintech space, just a proportion of the
grammes have popped up to of- $320m into Africa, and there isn’t
INVESTMENT IN AFRICAN FINTECH
fer support and advice to develop AS OF FEBRUARY 2019 a bubble. Fintechs in the country
Nigerian startups. Others have been can easily absorb this amount of
accepted on prestigious accelerator Total funding ($m) Deals cash given just how big the oppor-
programmes in the US. International 300 100 tunity is,” says Upadhyay. “But the
investors are beginning to take note. issue in Nigeria is that some com-
Mastercard, Visa and Tencent have panies gain much more attention
all invested in the sector, and a num- than others. As such, a lot of the
SOURCE: CBINSIGHTS
150 50
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ber of global venture capital (VC) investment is focused on a small
companies have helped some of group of companies and there is
Nigeria’s most promising fintech 0 0 a growing risk that valuations are
startups raise early-round funding. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 becoming distorted.”
‘Suitcase banking’, which African
Building scale markets continue to grapple with, despite increasingly
“An IPO is one measure of success – perhaps one of the becoming ingrained in the global financial landscape,
most visible,” says Tahira Dosani, managing director at is a major part of the problem. Armed with cash but
Accion Venture Lab. “And for many fintechs in Africa it’s with little local knowledge, investors fly in – or worse,
the holy grail,” she says. Nigerian startups will need to assess investment targets from hubs in Europe or the
build scale first. Mergers, acquisitions or exits through US – hoping to find the next big thing.
secondary sales are essential steps towards an IPO, but Could this be the case with Interswitch? “Whether a
news that Interswitch is making plans show just how fintech deserves this attention is subjective, and this
much the Nigerian fintech landscape is evolving. may influence valuations,” says Upadhyay, without
As Nigerian fintechs gather momentum, questions mentioning specific companies.
are emerging around whether their valuations are In August, South African telecoms giant MTN was
inflated. For those with local expertise in Nigeria’s granted a “super-agent” licence by the Central Bank
fintech ecosystem, however, there is not a bubble in of Nigeria, which will allow the largest telecoms com-
60
what companies are worth. pany in the country to provide financial
“For the most part before an IPO, fintech services to its subscriber base. With these
valuations are under wraps. But companies are newfound powers, Nigeria’s burgeoning
not necessarily overvalued – not at all. At the fintech sector could come crashing down,
end of the day, investors are just going to pay fulfilling fears of a bubble.
what they think these companies are worth,” The number of startups But Accion Venture Lab’s Dosani is not
operating in Africa’s
says Segun Aina, president of the Fintech worried. “Mobile-money licences are positive
fintech space has
Association of Nigeria (FAN). “Nigerian for the ecosystem, creating more payment
grown by more than
fintechs are developing at the margins. It’s a 60% in the past options for consumers and helping drive the
young, vibrant sector and there is plenty of two years, according adoption of digital services. If anything, it
room for growth and investment,” he says. to Disrupt Africa creates a payment infrastructure that fintechs
LIDYA
executive of Lidya. Banks that have stayed away from
SMEs in the past now see a viable route to banking them
by partnering with fintechs in the country. This also ‘THIS IS SOMETHING BANKS
means that they are able to meet financial inclusion JUST CAN’T AFFORD TO DO’
goals. For them, fintechs entering the space is less of
a threat and more of an opportunity. “There is such a Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)
large gap for financial services and a lot of room for in developing countries have an unmet finance
more entrants and more solutions for customers,” he need of $5.2trn each year, according to data
says. “More solutions from new entrants will be great collected by the International Finance Corporation.
for consumers and will spur innovation as fintechs, In Africa – where small businesses are the
37
alternative financiers, telecoms backbone of economic growth and development –
companies and banks look to be the figure stands at $331bn. Nigeria accounts
the partner of choice for their for a third of Africa’s funding hole. “Nigerian
target customers,” he adds. banks tailor solutions to meet the needs of large,
valuable corporate customers but this is
Fear of an exodus Nearly 37 of every 100 something they just can’t afford to do for smaller
adults in Nigeria
Data from the EFInA Access to companies in the market for smaller, shorter-term
are still unbanked,
Financial Services in Nigeria loans,” says Kehinde.
according to the EFInA
2018 Survey shows that 36.8% Access to Financial “Companies like ours are the only ones that can
of Nigeria’s adult population is Services in Nigeria fill this gap,” he adds. Kehinde speaks in his role
still unbanked, so the pie may be 2018 Survey as chief executive of financial services platform
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big enough for everyone. Lidya, while leaning on his experience as co-founder
For the FAN’s Aina, discussions around whether a and former managing director of online retailer Jumia
bubble is emerging distracts from the more pressing and co-founder of logistics company ACE.
issues facing Nigerian fintech. “As more international He has seen first-hand how the exclusion of small
investment comes in, there is a real risk that controlling Nigerian businesses from the financial landscape
interests leave Nigeria,” he says. has stifled economic growth. “We saw it through our
“Eventually, as fintechs grow and turn a profit, Nigeria’s logistics company,” says Kehinde. “Smaller busi-
economy will not benefit from this growth if they end nesses in Nigeria couldn’t get scale because they
up moving operations and ownership offshore. There couldn’t get access to credit for growth and couldn’t
needs to be a lot more discussion around how we can use our services. Something had to give, so Lidya
develop a dynamic fintech sector in the country and seemed like an obvious solution.”
create incentives to encourage local investment and for Founded in 2016 with his business partner Ercin
Nigerian fintechs to stay here,” he says. Eksin, the company focuses on providing access to
Aina points to the fact that Africa-focused e-commerce credit for SMEs across Nigeria via its online platform.
company Jumia is incorporated in Germany, has a tech Loans can go from $500 to $50,000 at a time.
team based in Portugal and is now listed on the New York Decisions usually take around three days for new
Stock Exchange. Meanwhile Flutterwave’s headquarters customers, but subsequent loans are usually issued
are in San Francisco, digital credit platform Mines also within 24 hours – as long as there haven’t been any
relocated there, and Paystack now has offices in Lagos issues with previous payments. The fintech accesses
as well as San Francisco. data from a number of different enterprise partners
Another challenge for Nigerian fintech growth? The to carry out the necessary due diligence on those
bulk of liquidity is still offshore. “Nigerian capital applying for loans without the need of audited finan-
markets are developing, and money is making its way cials, collateral or even bank statements. “We have
over here. But there is a lot to be gained if companies automated data collection, which cuts costs and
such as ours go to investors in places such as London time in terms of ‘know your customer’ anti-money
and New York,” says Kehinde. Nigeria’s capital markets laundering legislation and a number of other timely
will need to evolve just as quickly as the fintech sector, processes,” Kehinde says. To date, Lidya has issued
if the country wants to keep hold of these new, nimble more than 7,000 loans.
financial services companies. Interview by KANIKA SAIGAL
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projects is taking shape
ENERGY FINANCE
By OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI between 2018 and 2025. Africa’s oil and gas industry will
also require $1.6trn and $721bn cumulative infrastruc-
Amidst strong shale production from the US Permian ture investment between 2013 and 2035, respectively,
Basin, trade wars and low oil prices, 2019 has not been according to data from Africa Oil & Power.
a blockbuster year for oil and gas financing in Africa. And with commercial and political risks as well as
Paul Eardley-Taylor, head of Standard Bank’s (#1) oil regulatory setbacks also hindering investments, the bill
and gas sector coverage activities for Southern Africa, could be much higher. Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani, head
explains: “In the last few years, the world’s energy bal- of energy and natural resources at Nigeria’s FBNQuest
ance has completely changed as a result of the Permian. Merchant Bank, says African banks have not been big
So any project is now competing against the Permian players in oil and gas finance. “Most of these projects
for the next decade.” require long-term funding, and because of some of the
Getting promising African projects off the ground regulatory challenges the financial services sector and
does not come cheap and boosting investments in the capital markets in Africa had over the last decade –
energy sector will be key moving forward. According particularly since the financial crisis in 2008 – the ability
to GlobalData, an estimated $194bn will be required to to source money for seven to 10 years tenure locally is
fund 93 oil and gas projects planned across the continent increasingly limited. Commercial banks aren’t really
93
able to stretch for that long,” she says. buying LNG. And with that sort of Chinese
The final investment decision (FID) on Shell’s demand, it gives people a lot of confidence
long-stalled Bonga South-west offshore field for the next wave of FIDs.”
project in Nigeria has suffered considerable After several successful natural gas dis-
delays due to an outstanding tax dispute with oil and gas projects coveries, Mozambique is set to become a
are being planned
regulators. In February this year, Shell’s head top LNG exporter in the next few years.
across the continent
of upstream Andy Brown told Reuters that The country’s Coral FLNG project was able
between 2018 and 2025,
FID on the multibillion-dollar project, which requiring funding to reach FID in 2017 – first gas is expected
is expected to produce 180,000 barrels of amounting to in June 2021 – despite the volatile and un-
oil per day, will not happen until the issue an estimated $194bn certain global pricing environment. In June
is resolved. 2019, another LNG project led by US energy
And delay costs can add up quickly. “Delayed FID firm Anadarko reached its $20bn FID, the largest single
can also mean you delay other aspects of the project’s LNG project approved in sub-Saharan Africa oil and
value chain. So you’re thinking of bringing ancillary gas. FID on ExxonMobil’s multibillion-dollar Rovuma
infrastructure into the country; that is delayed. You LNG project is also expected by the end of 2019. On the
may have placed orders for certain component parts import front, France’s Total signed a deal in July with
of drilling equipment; that may also be delayed. Some the electricity utility in Benin for a new floating storage
of these things have huge costs, and obviously time is and regasification unit to supply power plants.
money,” Akinkugbe-Filani adds.
The lack of sufficient demand is another barrier hin- Looking beyond banks
dering energy financing across the continent. Initially Other LNG projects awaiting FID on the continent
expected in mid-2016, FID for Equatorial Guinea’s Fortuna include Tanzania’s $30bn LNG venture in the country’s
floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project has been Lindi Region, UK-based NewAge’s 1.2m tonnes per
delayed several times due to Ophir Energy’s inability annum (tpa) FLNG project in the Republic of Congo
to source the $1.2bn needed to finance the project. In and a seventh LNG train in Nigeria that would expand
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January 2019, the UK-based firm lost its licence to the the country’s LNG production capacity from 22m to
block that contains the Fortuna discovery. 30m tpa. With a focus on gas, Akinkugbe-Filani says
On the positive side, other projects are picking up, that Africa can look farther afield for good examples:
with a new wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pro- “Qatar has been able to monetise its gas resources ef-
jects leading the pack. The Paris-based International fectively to trigger and spark industrialisation across
Energy Agency predicts gas will overtake coal by a number of energies as well as petrochemicals, fer-
2030 to become the world’s second-leading fuel. tilisers, LNG for export and then using that as a base
Gas will play an increasingly significant role as a to develop vibrant cities.”
transition fuel in Africa. In some cases, financing these big projects has required
Standard Bank’s Eardley-Taylor explains: “You’ve got looking beyond traditional banks to more creative non-
prices coming back, which means that companies have bank and capital markets-based funding such as infra-
more free cash flow. You’re expected to have a glut of LNG structure bonds, quasi-debt and private equity funding.
from the Australian and the American projects coming Sourcing funds from development finance institutions,
online. That didn’t happen because the Chinese started international and multilateral finance institutions is
another alternative because they are a “key source of
CAPEX SPENDING ON PLANNED AND ANNOUNCED PROJECTS de-risking a project and opening it up to other sources
ACROSS THE OIL AND GAS VALUE CHAIN IN AFRICA
2018 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
of funding,” says Akinkugbe-Filani.
However, Standard Bank’s Eardley-Taylor argues that
30 Capital expenditure (US$ billions) Number of projects
35 fundraising problems are market- and project-specific
25 30 and in many countries a traditional finance model has
an important role to play.
25
20 “The example of LNG in Mozambique is where tra-
20
15 ditional banking models are absolutely working,” he
15 explains. “So I think a lot of that is about the underlying
10
SOURCE: GLOBALDATA
INTERVIEW
ADE
AYEYEMI
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‘We’re creating a
cashless economy’
ERIC LARRAYADIEU/ACF/JA
The chief executive of Ecobank friction in that transfer process. With the current level
Transnational (#16) reveals how of technology and economics, people can remit money
to the continent in a friction-free way almost instantly.
using tech to formalise remittance
flows will benefit both banks and Many remittances go through informal channels
African economies because they are faster and cheaper. What are the
benefits from formalising remittances?
It’s better for the remittance to go through the formal
Interview by PATRICK SMITH financial system. When it goes through informal systems,
it’s not predictable. The country cannot plan. If you
TAR: How important is finance from the diaspora look at a place like Nigeria, if it knows that it would get
for African economies? $20bn annually in foreign remittances through official
We’re looking at over 50 million people. Each of those channels, it becomes a predictable capital flow.
people earns on average more than 10 times the average
per capita income of people on the continent. Their How will you persuade people to use the banks and
ability to transfer money home to improve purchasing money transfer companies?
power and demand capacity is there. The responsibility The financial services institutions, development
for the banking system is to figure out how to reduce financial institutions and the African Union [AU] want
to bring the price down and im- What will the data from formal-
prove the quality. It means making ising remittances and boosting
the exchange rate very close to the BANKING BEYOND BORDERS mobile money be used for?
market exchange rate and making 1998 M-Pesa is a great product because
execution almost instantaneous. Got his first job in banking, working a problem was solved by including
We should allow free competition at Citibank Nigeria people in financial services, but the
to ensure that the banking system government of Kenya was ready
March 2006
behaves responsibly. We cannot Promoted to director for Citibank Kenya, to trade control for inclusion. […]
get good flow at the current rate of Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe Why should people care? It allows
7%-10%. So we believe that the price more information to be available in
needs to come down substantially. September 2013 the days of big data and the ability
I wouldn’t encourage the AU or any Named director for sub-Saharan Africa to analyse that data. And you can
other union to determine the price. at Citibank see a higher level of the transac-
tions passing through. Because […]
What do you think is a fair fee for September 2015 you compare the GDP of Ghana to
remittances? Became chief executive the GDP of New York, and Ghana
of the Togo-based Ecobank Transnational
I think anything more than 3% is is much less than New York. And
too high if you’re going to supply it you start asking the question: ‘Are
instantly. If it’s going to take some we counting this differently? Are
time to execute, then you should be we not able to predict the right
looking at as low as 1%. Then that makes it at a level demand and therefore the right investment level in
that can remunerate capital for supplying the remittance these various countries?’ A lot of investments are
product and that can also attract people that want to do based on a leap of faith. But including large numbers
the remittance. of transactions in the financial system in a cashless
way allows those things that were happening to be
This PDF is free, and not for resale / Think green! Only print if necessary
How can remittances play a more productive role in measured. You can say: ‘There are lots of people
economies? that can demand this product that I want to invest
The first thing is a recognition that there are a lot of in.’ That allows you to make that decision in a much
people living outside that want to support the econo- more informed way.
mies of the countries they came from. [This] will help
to keep people in those countries and improve demand Why did mobile money take longer to get estab-
capacity. We always talk about migration. But if the lished in West Africa than East Africa?
resources sit in the North, the people in the South will As somebody who lives in Togo, a small country,
come looking for resources. [I can say] it’s not a function of your [country’s] size.
There has to be a recognition that remittances are You need leadership to be able to create innovative
important and policy should support them. There is a lot solutions and to be able to put it to market. Kenya just
of conversation about remittance as if it’s a ‘black flow’ demonstrated a faster agility than West Africa. But I
that doesn’t need to be discussed in official quarters. think that’s probably because Kenya didn’t have oil and
The World Bank is now looking at their size and saying they needed to innovate quickly. They’ve done that. The
something needs to be done. rest have learnt from them.
And there are a lot of people that are working, but By the way, the payment systems in some of the
they don’t have papers. We should try and figure out West African markets are faster than some of the US
how to include them in the financial and banking markets. It’s just a question of people who have a
system [in Africa] so that remittance flows can serve problem. They want to solve it. The current level of
a higher purpose. African central technology allows them to get that
bankers need to recognise that the done and we don’t have investment
remittances don’t have to go only to
individuals. It’s much better if they
‘WHEN REMITTANCES in legacy systems that impair the
institutions from getting that done.
flow through the [formal] financial GO THROUGH So today across the continent, the
system of choice by the person doing
the remitting or receiving it. Once
INFORMAL SYSTEMS ability to make payments instantly
is something that we feel very hap-
those things are done, then people THE COUNTRY py about and we can do payments
would demand products based on across African countries as fast as
who can offer the right service. CANNOT PLAN’ we can do payments in Europe.
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South African banks are facing challenges in preventing costs from rising faster than income due to slow growth, corruption, and high debt levels in the economy . Standard Bank has been implementing cost-cutting measures, such as reducing its workforce by about 2,100 employees between June 2018 and June 2019, to mitigate these pressures . Despite these efforts, expenses growth exceeded revenue growth in 2018 due to lower income from interest rates on loans . Moreover, the potential downgrade of South Africa's investment-grade rating by Moody's might impact their financing costs but could also push the government towards economic reform .
African banks like Zenith Bank are focusing on leveraging improvements in their respective country’s economies to drive recovery. For instance, Zenith Bank is benefitting from the recovery of the Nigerian economy, which is assisted by the rebound of oil prices post-2015 . Moreover, banks are also emphasizing digital transformation and international diversification to mitigate local economic pressures . These approaches aim to stabilize operations despite challenging economic conditions and prepare for sustainable growth.
African banks are implementing strategies such as workforce reductions, digital transformation, and geographical diversification to address the issue of rising expenses surpassing revenue growth. For instance, Standard Bank reduced its workforce by about 2,100 employees to manage costs . Digitalization is another strategy employed by banks to improve efficiency and streamline processes, aiming to reduce overall operating costs . These strategies show potential effectiveness in stabilizing financial health and maintaining profitability even when traditional revenue sources are under pressure. However, the full effectiveness depends on broader economic conditions and the banks' ability to adapt quickly to changing environments .
A downgrade by Moody's would likely raise the cost of financing for South African banks by affecting the country's membership in global bond indices and causing an investor exodus, impacting the flow of money into the banks . Despite this, some analysts believe it could exert pressure on the government to implement more rigorous economic reforms, potentially benefiting the economy and the banking sector in the long term . This impact could also challenge banks to manage increases in non-performing loans and adjust their risk evaluation frameworks to cope with heightened risks .
Standard Bank is leveraging its presence in 20 sub-Saharan countries outside of South Africa to offset domestic economic challenges. This geographical diversification allows the bank to remain profitable and maintain strong liquidity ratios despite economic stress in South Africa . Operationally, the bank benefits from digitalization and cost-control strategies which boost profitability in foreign markets where economic prospects may be brighter than in South Africa .
International investment is pivotal in fueling the growth of Nigeria’s fintech sector. It provides essential capital and technological expertise that drive innovation and expansion . These investments enable fintech companies to develop new financial solutions and expand their reach, contributing to improved financial inclusion through partnerships with traditional banks. However, these investments also pose challenges, such as the risk of moving operations and control offshore, potentially limiting the local economic benefits and growth in domestic expertise . To maximize benefits, there is a need to develop incentives for local retention of these fintech operations .
Digitalization has significantly contributed to the profitability of banks like Standard Bank by streamlining operations and reducing costs, thereby enabling the bank to maintain a strong return on equity even during economic difficulty . It has also facilitated better customer engagement and improved service delivery, which enhances competitive advantage in the African banking market. The shift towards digital banking allows banks to reach a wider customer base efficiently, contributing to their growth trajectory .
The economic outlook, characterized by slow growth and potential credit downgrades, necessitates stricter risk management strategies for South African banks like Standard Bank in terms of managing NPLs. Given heightened economic risks, banks have tightened their risk acceptance criteria and focused on specific market segments to minimize exposure . Although an increase in NPLs is anticipated, it is expected to remain within manageable levels. Such cautionary measures align with Standard Bank’s emphasis on maintaining a disciplined approach towards underwriting and risk evaluation to cope with the anticipated economic challenges .
The growth of fintech in Nigeria has presented opportunities for traditional banks, particularly in the realm of financial inclusion. By partnering with fintech companies, banks are able to extend services to underserved SMEs and meet financial inclusion goals. This partnership is viewed as a viable route for banks rather than a threat, as it allows them to be part of the innovation and provides more solutions for consumers . The fintech expansion has also increased financial services availability for Nigeria's large unbanked adult population, which stands at 36.8% .
The relocation of fintech headquarters from Nigeria to international locations such as San Francisco presents several risks and opportunities. Risks include the potential loss of local economic benefits and ownership, as profits and control could shift outside of Nigeria . However, opportunities arise from expanded access to global markets and investors, which can provide the capital and expertise needed for growth . Additionally, this shift might encourage more competitive and innovative solutions within the fintech sector, though it raises concerns about retaining key talent and operations domestically .