PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

II. Pengertian Risiko

• Resiko merupakan suatu kejadian (event) dari

suatu proses business atau proyek, dimana
manusia yang mengelolannya tidak dapat
memperhitungkan dengan pasti dampak
maupun besaran yang ditimbulkannya. (PMI -
USA)

• Risiko diukur dengan melihat konsekwensi yang

mungkin terjadi, dan besarnya probabilitas
terjadinya risiko . Sehingga konsep Risiko selalu
mencakup dua elemen yaitu Frekwensi
/probabilitas dan konsekwensi (AS/NZS HB 143 :
1999)
Konsep Risiko
III. Konsep Risiko

Risk = f ( Probability, Consequences )

Rp
III. Konsep Risiko

Project Product
(Venture) (Outcome)

Favorable
Uncertainty (Opportunity)
( Positive outcome)
(Unknown)
Unfavorable
(Threats)
(Negative Outcome)

The goal of Risk Management is to move

uncertainty from threat to opportunity

Kosa Kata
V. Total Risiko
BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE OF IDENTIFIED RISKS
CORPORATE & CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

TOTAL RISK

ECONOMIC RISK CONTRACTUAL RISK POLITICAL RISK CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT RISK

Failure of Uncertainty
Inflation Invironmental Productivity
Payment In Labor

Labor Owner Air Availability Labor

Material Contractor Noise Skill Equipment

Uncertainty In
Equipment Delay Disputes Water Quality Control
Equipment

Coordination
Energy Shortage Public Disorder Breakdown Safety
Failure

Financial Demonstration
Owner Availability Mistakes
Uncertainty s

Owner/ Uncertainty In Management

Contractor War
Customer Material Competence

Government Act Variation In

Contractor Change orders Shortage
and Regulations Quality

Tax rate
Designer Delay Protectionr
Changes

Curency Design
Permit Availabilities
Fluctuation Changes

Delay Site
Labor Disputes
Access

WidemanWideman
[Link]
V-6 Permit

Risk Profile VS Amount stake

Title
 Typical Life Cycle Profiles-Risk
vs Amount at Stake

Total Project Life Cycle

Plan Accomplish
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Concept Development Implementation Termination
Concive Develop Execute Finish
Increasing Risk

IDR Value
Period when Highest
Risks are Incurred
Period of Highest
Risks Impact

Time

People & Risk

Wideman [Link] II-5
 Kategori Sumber/Jenis Risiko
Risk
Management

Risk
Identification

External External Internal Technical Legal Financial

Unpredictable Predictable Non Technical

▪ Unpaid Project
• Management • Change in Technology • Licences
• Regulatory • Market Risks ▪ Wrong in
• Schedule • Performance • Patent Rights
• Natural Hazards • Operational Making Cash
• Cost • Risk Specific to • Contractual
• Postulated • Environmental Impacts Flow Prediction
• Cash Flow Technology • Outsider Suit
Events • Social Impacts • Loss of Potential • Design • Force Majeure
• Side Effecs • Inflation • Uncertainty in Labor • Sheer Size or Complexity • Government Act and
• Completion • Demonstration/ People Claim (Availability, Skill) of Project Regulation
• Energy shortage • Financial Uncertainty • Uncertainty in Material • Quality Control • Construction Permits
• War • Failure of Payment • Coordination Failure • Defective Construction
• Terrorist Act • Government Act and • Project Delay • Safety
• Monetary Crisis Regulation (Tax Ratio and • Labor Importation Cost • Productivity
Permits) • Work Accident Cost • Design Change
• Uncertainty in Equipment • Unsuitable Method
(Availability) • Wrong to Read
• Delay of Site Access (Permits) Specification
• Currency Fluctuation/changes • Wrong to Calculate Unit
• Limited Number of Sub Con Price
• NSC (Nominated Sub • Wrong in Interpretating of
Contractor) Scope of work. Tingkat risiko
 Tingkat Risiko (Level Risiko)

• Tinggi rendahnya Risiko diukur berdasarkan :

a. Akibat (consequences) : seberapa besar akibat

yang timbul bila risiko itu benar-benar terjadi?

b. Kemungkinan terjadinya (likelihood) : Seberapa

besar kemungkinan risiko itu dapat terjadi?

• Jadi : suatu risiko dikategorikan rendah bila kecil

akibatnya dan kecil kemungkinan terjadinya. Asian Business
Consultants

Pengendalian Sumber Risk

VI. Definisi
Manajemen Risiko
• Suatu proses yang systimatis didalam meng-
identifikasi, menganalisis dan menyelesaikan
masalah risiko yang akan terjadi pada proyek,
termasuk memaksimalkan probabilitas dan
konsekwensi dari kejadian yang positif dan
meminimalkan probabilitas dan konsekwensi
dari kejadian yang kurang baik terhadap
tujuan proyek (PMBOK ed 20004)

Dasar Alur MR
 DASAR ALUR MANAJEMEN RISIKO
1. Berdasarkan WBS, identifikasikan GEDUNG KANTOR
01.
LEVEL 1

risiko apa yang mungkin terjadi BANGUNAN

01.01
MEKANIKAL &
ELEKTRIKAL
01.02
UMUM & PENDUKUNG
01.03
LEVEL 2

STRUKTUR ELEKTRIKAL ELEKTRIKAL MEKANIKAL

selama pelaksanaan proyek.

SUBSTRUKTUR FINISHING SITE SAFETY
01.01.01
ATAS
01.01.03
ARUS KUAT ARUS LEMAH UMUM
01.03.01 01.03.02
LEVEL 3
01.01.02 01.02.01 01.02.02 01.02.03

GALIAN & KOLOM DINDING [Link] PLUMBING SITE

[Link].1-40 [Link]
DEWATERING LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 CLEARING
[Link] [Link] [Link]
[Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]

LEVEL 4

2. Lakukan analisis atas dampak dan

BLK & PLAT PLAFOND EL.N0NSTD [Link] HVAC SITE
PONDASI GEDUNG
LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 FACILITIES
[Link] [Link]
[Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]

URUGAN TANGGA LANTAI [Link] MATVCCTV LIFT/ESC

EQUIP.
KEMBALI LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40
[Link]

probabilitas dari risiko tersebut.

[Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]

[Link]&PL [Link] COND COND AIR BERSIH

[Link] LT.1-40
TC
LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40
[Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link].
[Link].
01 01 01 01 01 01 01

3. Tentukan alokasi risiko (Penanggung

[Link]&PL [Link] KABEL KABEL AIR KOTOR
STRT
LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40
LIFT ORG LEVEL 5
[Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link].
[Link].
02 02 02 02 02 02 02

BALANC. [Link]&PL [Link] ARMATUR PABX&UNIT HYDRAN SCHAFF

LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40 LT.1-40
[Link]. [Link].

jawab risiko)
[Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link]. [Link].
03 03 03 03 03 03 03 WBS
SAMPLE

3. Carilah cara menanggulangi risiko :

(1) Mengurangi (mitigasi)
(2) Memindahkan (transfer)
(3) Menghindari (Avoid)
(4) Menerima (accept)
4. Monitor terus menerus selama pelaksanaan proyek.
Garis Besar MR
 Overview
MANAJEMEN RISIKO

Identifikasi Risiko

Apakah Risiko ini dapat Tidak Tidak perlu pertimbangan

mempengaruhi hasil proyek lebih lanjut
pada bagian anda
Ya
Penilaian Pengaruh yang
kembali setelah Evaluasi dampak atau
beberapa waktu pengaruh terhadap proyek dapat diabaikan
(Evaluasi Risiko)
Risiko dianggap penting
Tentukan siapa yang bertanggung
jawab terhadap risiko ini (Alokasi
Risiko)

Jika bertanggung jawab atas risiko ini, apakah anda

akan memindahkan risiko ini kepada pihak lain
(Pengurangan Risiko)
 Overview
MANAJEMEN RISIKO

Identifikasi Risiko
(Risk Identification)

Analysis Risiko
(Risk Analysis)

Tindakan/Penanggulangan Risiko
(Risk Response/Treatment)

Diambil (Accepted) Ditolak (Avoid)

Dialihkan pada Dikendalikan Diterima sebagai Pek. Tidak Pek. Diambil tetapi
Pihak lain sendiri biaya risiko diambil risiko diserahkan Owner

Monitor dan Control

Derivasi risiko bisnis kontraktor
PMBOK – PMI-USA ed 2004

Section 3:

Capter 11 : Project Risk Management

11.1 Risk Management Planning
11.2 Risk Identification
11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis

11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis

11.5 Risk Response Planning

11.6 Risk Monitoring and Control

 Enterprise Risk Project Management Plan Develop Project
Environmental Commercial Database Management Management Plan
Factors Planning 4.3
Policies, Procedures, 11.1 ([Link]) ([Link])
Guidelines, Lessons learned
Organizational Knowledge base Risk Management Plan
Process Assets Approved Changes Requests
Approved Corrective Actions
Risk
Approved Preventive Actions
Identification
Approved Changes Requests
Scope Definition Project Scope Statement 11.2 ([Link])
5.2
([Link])
Risk Register

Cost Management Plan Qualitative

Develop Project Schedule Management Plan Risk Analysis
Management Plan 11.3 ([Link])
4.3 ([Link])
Risk Register (updates)
Performance Performance reporting Quantitative
Reporting Risk Analysis
10.3 ([Link]) 11.4 ([Link])
Risk Register (updates)
Work Performance Risk Response Project Management Plan (updates)
Direct & Manage
Information
Project Execution Planning 11.5
4.4 ([Link]) ([Link])
Risk Register (updates)
Risk-related Contractual Agreements
Close Project Risk Register Recommended Preventive Actions
4.7 Organizational Process Assets (updates) Slide 99Risk Recommended Corrective Actions
([Link]) Requested Changes Integrated Change
Monitoring & Risk Register (updates)
Control 11.6 Control 4.6
Project Management Plan ([Link])
([Link])
(updates)

Project Risk Management Process Flow Diagram (PMBoK)

 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT Overview

11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis

11.2 Risk Identification 1 Inputs
11.1 Risk Management Planning 1 Inputs
1 Inputs .1. Organizational process assets
.1. Enterprise environmental factors .2. Project scope statement
.1. Enterprise environmental factors .2. Organizational process assets
.2. Organizational process assets .3. Risk Management Plan
.3. Project scope statement .4. Risk register
3. Project scope statement .4. Risk Management Plan
.4. Project Management plan .5. Project management plan. 2 Tools and Technniques
2 Tools and Technniques .1. Risk probability and impact
. 2 Tools and Technniques assessment
.1. Planning meetings and analysis 1. Documentation reviews .2. Probability and impact matrix
2. Information gathering techniques .3. Risk data quality assessment
3 Outputs 3. Checklist analysis
.1. Risk Management Plan .4. Risk categorization
4. Assumptions analysis .5. Risk urgency assessment
5. Diagramming techniques
3 Outputs
3 Outputs .1. Risk register (updates)
1. Risk register

11.4 Quantitaive Risk Analysis

1 Inputs 11.6 Risk Monitoring and Control
.1. Organizational process assets 1 Inputs
11.5 Risk Response Planning .1. Risk Management Plan
.2. Project scope statement
1 Inputs .2. Risk register
.3. Risk Management Plan
.1. Risk Management Plan .3. Approved change request
.4. Risk register
2. Risk register .4. Work performance information
.5. Project Management plan
. Project schedule management plan .5. Performance reports
2 Tools and Technniques
. Project cost management plan
.1. Strategies for negative risk or threats 2 Tools and Technniques
.2. Strategies for positive risk or opportunities .1. Risk reassessment
2 Tools and Technniques
.3. Strategy for both threats and apportunities .2. Risk audits
.1. Data gathering and representation
.4. Contingent response strategy .3. Variance and trend analysis
techniques
.2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling .4. Technical performance measurement
3 Outputs .5. Reserve analysis
techniques
.1. Risk register (updates) .6. Status meetings
.2. Project management plan (updates)
3 Outputs
.3. Risk-related contractula agreements 3 Outputs
.1. Risk register (updates)
.1. Risk register (updates)
.2. Requested changes
.3. Recommended corrective actions
.4. Recommended preventive actions
.5. Organizational process assets
(updates)
.6. Project management plan (updates)

(PMBOK © Guide p. 239)

 11.1 RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING
Project
Deciding how to approach, plan, and execute the risk management
activities for a project

1. Enterprise Environmental
Factors

2. Organizational process 1. Planning Meetings 1. Risk

Assests and Analysis Management
3. Project Scope Statement
Plan

4. Project management Plan

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
 11.1 RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING

Tools & Techniques

1 .1. Planning meetings and
analysis

.1. Planning meetings and analysis ([Link].p.243)

Anggota team proyek inti termasuk Project Manager, stakeholder, dan siapa saja
didalam organisasi yang diberikan tanggung jawab untuk mengelola perencanaan
risiko, dan pelaksanaan kegiatan mengadakan rapat untuk mengembangkan risk
management plan :
▪ Mengembangkan Elemen risiko biaya dan jadwal sebagai masukan Project
budget dan Schedule.
▪ Menugaskan penanggung jawab risiko.
▪ Kategori risiko, tingkat risiko, kemungkinan jenis risiko, dampak jenis tujuan
dan matrix akan dikhususkan untuk proyek spesial.
▪ Keluaran dari kegiatan ini akan diringkaskan pada Risk management plan.
11.1 RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING
Outputs
1 .1. Risk Management Plan

.1. Risk Management Plan ([Link].p.243-246)

Bagaimana manajemen risiko distrukturkan dan
dilaksanakan pada proyek.
Risk management Plan termasuk berikut ini :
❖ Methodology
❖ Role and responsibilities
❖ Budgeting
❖ Timing
❖ Risk Categories
❖ Definitions of risk probability and impact
❖ Probability and impact matrix
❖ Revised stakeholders’ tolerances
❖ Reporting formats
❖ Tracking
Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Project

External Organizational Project

Technical management

Requirements Subcontractor Project Estimating

& Suppliers Dependencies

Technology Regulatory Resources Planning

Complexity
& Interface Market Founding Controlling

Performance
& Reliability Customer Prioritization Communication

Quality Weather

The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) lists the categories and sub-categories within which risks
may arise for a typical project. Different RBSs will be appropriate for different types of projects
and different types of organizations. One benefit of this approach is to remind participants in a
risk identification exercise of the many sources from which project risk may arise.
Type of Risk
Project
Contoh : Risiko Yang dikenal – tidak
❖ Uncertainty diketahui :
Adalah suatu item atau situasi yang
▪ known kita kenal tetapi tidak mengetahui
bagaimana mereka akan
▪ known-unknown mempengaruhi kita. (Ketidak-Pastian
yang bisa diidentifikasi)
▪ unknown-unknowns Contoh : Rekening Listrik

Contoh : Tidak diketahui – Tak dikenal

Suatu item atau situasi keberadaan
siapa/ akan ada kejadian apa yang kita
tidak bisa membayangkan.
❖ Impact to Contoh: 1998 – Krisis
moneter, AIDS / Krisis moral
▪ Scope
▪ Quality
▪ Schedule
▪ Cost
 11.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
Project
Menetapkan risiko yang mana yang mungkin akan berdampak
pada proyek dan mendokumentasikan karakteristiknya.

1. Enterprise Environmental 1. Documentation

Factors Reviews
2. Organizational process 2. Information
Assests Gathering Techniques 1. Risk Register
3. Project Scope Statement 3. Checklist Analysis
4. Risk management Plan 4. Assumption analysis
5. Project management Plan 5. Diagramming
techniques

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
11.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION

Outputs
1 1. Risk register

1. Risk register ( [Link] p. 249)

❖Daftar Risiko yang teridentifikasi
❖Daftar potensi penanganan risiko
❖Sebab terjadinya risiko
❖Kategori risiko yang diperbaharui.
 11.2 RISK IDENTIFICATION
LAMPIRAN
Template
RISK REGISTER Date of Risk Review…………………..
Compiled By ……………………Date
Function/Activity…………………. Reviewed By ……………………Date

Ref The Risk The consequences of Adequacy Likelihood Consequence Level of Risk
What can Happen and an Event Happening of Existing Rating Rating Risk Priority
How can it Happen Likelihood Consequences Controls

Transfer high priority Risks to the Risk Treatment Schedule.

AS/NZS 4360 : 1999, documentation p.42

 Risk Register
Risk Potential
Category Risk ID Root Cause Impact Risk Owner
Description Responses

Initial Initial

Political R01 A change in Change in Limited budget Secure project Peter (PM)
government in Government sponsorship from
the upcoming Regulation leaders of the
elections leads political parties
to a reduction likely to come into
in project power.
funding,
scope, or
sponsorship.
The initial Risk Owner and Risk Responses are defined during the Identify Risk
process. This information will be revisited and validated during the Plan Risk
Responses process.
 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Prioritas risiko untuk sub bagian dari analisis berikutnya atau

kombinasi dari probabilitas kejadian dan dampak.

1. Risk Probability &

1. Organizational Impact Assessment
process Assests 2. Probability &
2. Project Scope Impact
Statement matrix 1. Risk Register
3. Risk Data Quality
3. Risk management
Assessment
(updates)
Plan 4. Risk Categorization
4. Risk Register 5. Risk Urgency
assessment

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Tools & Techniques
1 .1. Risk probability and impact assessment
.2. Probability and impact matrix
.3. Risk data quality assessment
.4. Risk categorization
.5. Risk urgency assessment

.1. Risk probability and impact assessment (p.251)

Risk probability assessment menyelidiki likelihood (kemungkinan)
setiap risiko yang akan terjadi.
Risk impact assessment menyelidiki dampak yang berpotensial
pada sasaran proyek seperti waktu, biaya, scope, atau quality
termasuk dampak negative terhadap kelemahan dan positive untuk
kesempatan.
Risiko yang mempunyai rating probabilitas rendah dan dampak
tidak dirating, akan tetapi termasuk dalam watchlist untuk
monitoring.
 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
. 2. Probability and Impact Matrix (p.251-252)
Risk Score for a Specific Risk
Probability Threats
0.9 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72
0.7 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56
0.5 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40
0.3 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24
0.1 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08
0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80
Impact (Ratio Scale) on an Objective (e.g. Cost, Time, Scope or Quality)

Red = High risk

Yellow = Moderate risk
Green = Low risk
Probability scale : 0.0 (no Probability), 1.0 (certainty)
CONTOH 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Matriks Analisis Risiko (4 X 4)

Kemungkinan Akibat (Consequences)

(Likelihood)
Minor 1 Moderat 2 Major 3 Malapetaka 4

A. Sangat Besar T T E E

B. Besar M M T E

C. Moderat R M M T

D. Kecil R R R M

E = Risiko Ekstreme
T = Risiko Tinggi
M = Risiko Moderat
R = Risiko Rendah
CONTOH 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Matriks Analisis Risiko (4 X 3)

Kemungkinan Akibat (Consequences)
(Likelihood)
Minor 1 Moderat 2 Major 3 Malapetaka 4

A. Besar M T E E

B. Moderat R M T E

C. Kecil R R M E

E = Risiko Ekstreme
T = Risiko Tinggi
M = Risiko Moderat
R = Risiko Rendah
CONTOH 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Matriks Analisis Risiko (3 X 3)

Kemungkinan Akibat (Consequences)

(Likelihood)
Minor 1 Moderat 2 Major 3

A. Besar M T T

B. Moderat R M T

C. Kecil R R M

T = Risiko Tinggi
M = Risiko Moderat
R = Risiko Rendah
CONTOH 11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Level Risiko (3 Tingkat)

Level Risiko Perlakuan

T Risiko TINGGI Dibutuhkan perhatian

manajemen senior
M Risiko MODERAT Dibutuhkan perhatian
manajemen (yang ditetapkan
secara spesifik)
R Risiko RENDAH Cukup dengan prosedur rutin.
CONTOH Ukuran Kualitative untuk
Kemungkinan (Likelihhod) – 5 Rating

Rating Contoh Kriteria

I Sangat besar Dipastikan akan sangat mungkin terjadi

II Besar Kemungkinan besar dapat terjadi

III Sedang Sama kemungkinannya antara terjadi

atau tidak terjadi
IV Kecil Kemungkinan kecil dapat terjadi

V Sangat kecil Dipastikan akan sangat tidak mungkin

terjadi
CONTOH
Ukuran Kualitative lainnya
untuk akibat (Consequences)
5 Rating

Rating Contoh Kriteria

Aspek Lingkungan Hidup Aspek Reputasi Aspek Keselamatan Kerja

1. Tidak Tidak terjadi kesalahan pelepasan Tidak ada publisitas jelek Tidak ada kecelakaan
Signifikan B3

2. Minor Terjadi kesalahan pelepasan B3 di Publisitas jelek dan menjadi Tindakan P3K dibutuhkan
dalam lokasi organisasi yang berita (bukan headline)di
segera dapat ditanggulangi media lokal.
sendiri.
3. Medium Terjadi kesalahan pelepasan B3 di Publisitas jelek dan menjadi Bantuan tenaga medis
dalam lokasi organisasi yang perlu headline di media lokal. dibutuhkan (berobat jalan)
ditanggulangi pihak eksternal.

4. Major Terjadi kesalahan pelepasan B3 di Publisitas jelek dan menjadi Perawatan inap dirumah
dalam lokasi organisasi yang tidak berita (bukan headline) di sakit
menimbulkan korban media Nasional.

5. Malapetaka Terjadi kesalahan pelepasan B3 Publisitas jelek dan menjadi Cacat tetap dan atau
(Catastrophic) yang menimbulkan korban berita headline di media kematian
 Contoh : Daftar Risiko (Risk Register)
CONTOH RISIKO pembekakan Biaya Pelaksanaan Terhadap Budget
Seksi : Operasi Proyek ………………
Kegiatan/Proyek : Pengendalian Biaya (Cost Control)
Sasaran / target : (1) Realisasi Biaya sesuai PEP (2) Control Biaya dan pelaporan secara periodik sesuai Baseline
Tanggal : Disusun oleh : Diperiksa oleh : Sumber : Kontrak

No Risiko Faktor Rating Rating Level Prioritas

. Positif yang Akibat kemungkinan Risiko Risiko
Peristiwa Akibat Kemungkinan ada
(Consequences) (Likelihood) sekarang

1 Anggaran/Bu (1) Realisasi biaya lebih Kemungkinan Sedang Mayor Besar Ekstrim 1
dget tidak besar dari rencana terjadi besar dihitung/dikaji
realistis (item (2) Proyek rugi ulang
20,40,60,99)

2 Kenaikan (1) Realisasi harga Kemungkinan Sedang Mayor Besar Ekstrim 1

harga2 satuan pekerjaan terjadi besar dihitung/dikaji
dipasar membengkak ulang
(2) Proyek rugi

Qualitative risk analysis

Uraikan lebih rinci pada kertas pendukung.
 Risk Register Updates
Effect to Risk Risk Risk
Risk Causes Category Probability Impact
Project Owner Response Score

Initial Initial
Add in this process

The Urgent List for high priority risk

Risk that are high priority place on the Urgent List. Responses are developed. Low
priority risks are placed on Watch List. Responses are developed if Risk Score
increases.
The Watch List for low priority risk
11.3 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Outputs
1 .1. Risk register (updates)

1.1 Risk Register (updates) (p.253)

Risk Register aktif sepanjang proses Identifikasi risiko.
Diupdate dengan informasi dari Qualitative Risk
Analysis meliputi :
▪ Relative rangking or priorty list of project risks.
▪ Risk grouped by categories.
▪ List of risks requiring response in the near-term.
▪ List of risks for additional analysis and response.
▪ Watchlist of low peiority risks
▪ Trend in qualitative risk analysis results.
 11.4 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Analisis dampak dengan angka terhadap semua sasaran

proyek yang risikonya teridentifikasi.

1. Organizational process
Assests 1. Data gathering &
2. Project Scope Statement Representattion
3. Risk management Plan Techniquest 1. Risk Register
4. Risk Register (updates)
5. Project Management Plan 2. Quantitative Risk
- Project schedule Analysis & Modeling
management plan techniques
- Project cost management plan

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
CONTOH Scenario Analysis for Proposed Office Building
URAIAN Option A Option B Option C

Circulation space area required to meet 1,000 sq.m 1,600 sq.m 2,300 sq.m
the client’s requirements
Net usable floor area of the building 7,000 sq.m 6,600 sq.m 5,000 sq.m
stipulated in the brief

Gross superficial floor area of building 5,000 sq.m 5,000 sq.m 5,000 sq.m

Construction prices forecast for building $1,000 $950 $1,100

cost per sq.m at the fourth quarter 1988

Inflation allowance for a 12 month 5% pa 4% pa 8% pa

design time and 12 month construction
period

Cost of providing car parking and $500,000 $400,000 $800,000

modifying the existing roads to meet
L.A. requirements

Roger Flanagan & George Norman, Risk Mgt & Construction p. 146
 SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR OFFICE
CONTOH BUILDING DEVELOPMENT
Total cost (US$ Instalation

Car parking
Instalation
and road
Instalation
Car parking
and road Car parking
and road Construction
Useable
Construction area
Useable Construction
area Useable
area

Circulation
Circulation Circulation 2,300 sq m
2,000 sq m 1,600 sq m

Option A Option B Option C

(most likely) (optimistic) (pessimistic)
Roger Flanagan & George Norman, Risk Mgt & Construction p. 145
 11.4 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
.2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Tools & Techniques
Techniques ([Link] p.257) .1. Data gathering and representation techniques
▪ Sensitivity analysis 2 .2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
▪ Expected monetary value analysis techniques
▪ Decision tree analysis
▪ Modeling and simulation

CONTOH : Expected Monetary Value 1

Pada beberapa situasi -konsekuensi mempunyai nilai Uang.

Sehungga Risk bisa diukur dengan perkalian antara nilai uang dari
kerugian/keuntungan (konsekuensi) dengan frekuensi atau kemungkinan
yang terjadi.
Risk = Konsekuensi X Kemungkinan.
Risk dimaksud adalah Perkiraan nilai uang untuk sekali kejadian
Contoh :
Rencana menanamkan modal (investasi) senilai Rp. 40M dan disini mendapat
kesempatan 20% akan kembali senilai Rp 60M tetapi kesempatan sebesar 80%
akan kembali hanya Rp.35M.
Expected Monetary Value = 20/100 X 60 + 80/100 X 35 = Rp 40M
 CONTOH : Expected Monetary Value 2
Suatu Perusahaan Jasa Konstruksi mencatat bahwa Karyawannya
1% buta satu mata (kecelakaan) dengan nilai uang Rp. 250 Juta
15% membutuhkan perawatan Rumah sakit dengan biaya rata
rata Rp.30 Juta. Dan sisanya memerlukan pertolongan ringan
dengan biaya Rp. 4 Juta.
Expected Monetary Value pada 1 mata cidera.:
Risiko = Frekuensi X Konsekuensi
0.01 X Rp. 250 Juta = Rp. 2.5 Juta
+ 0.15 X Rp. 30 Juta = Rp. 4.5 Juta
+ 0.84 X Rp. 4 Juta = Rp. 3.36 Juta
1 = Rp 10.36 Juta
 11.4 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
.2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Tools & Techniques
Techniques ([Link] p.257) .1. Data gathering and representation techniques
▪ Sensitivity analysis 2 .2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
▪ Expected monetary value analysis techniques
▪ Decision tree analysis
▪ Modeling and simulation

Consequences
CONTOH Decision Box Probability
Out come → Cost
500
Decision Trees 0.8 P
700
0.3
F 0.2
700
0.2 All F
500
0.5 Min
500

200
0.6 0.75 P
P 500

0.25 F
500
0.4
F cancel
200
 11.4 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
.2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Tools & Techniques
Techniques ([Link] p.257) .1. Data gathering and representation techniques
▪ Sensitivity analysis 2 .2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
▪ Expected monetary value analysis techniques
▪ Decision tree analysis
▪ Modeling and simulation

Total Project Cost

Cost Risk Simulation Results Comulative Chart
1.00 5000

75
Probability

Frequency
50

25

12%
Mean = 46.67
0 0
$ 41 $50
30.00 38.75 47.50 56.25 65.00
Cost $
11.4 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Outputs
1 .1. Risk register (updates)

1.1 Risk Register (updates) (p.259)

Risk Register aktif sepanjang proses Identifikasi risiko.
Diupdate dengan informasi dari Qualitative Risk Analysis
kemudian diupdate lagi dalam Quantitative Risk Analysis
meliputi :
▪ Probabilistic analysis of the project
▪ Probability of achieving cost and time objectives
▪ Prioritized list of quantified risks
▪ Trends in quantitative risk analysis results
 Risk Register Update
Risk
Catego Root Potential Risk
Descriptio Impact Risk Owner Probability Impact
ry Causes responses Score
n

Initial Initial
Update in Quantitative Risk Analysis

The Risk Register is updated at the conclusion of Quantitative Risk

Analysis
 11.5 RISK RESPONSE PLANNING

Pilihan dari pengembangan dan tindakan untuk meningkatkan

peluang, dan mengurangi ancaman terhadap sasaran proyek.

1. Strategies for
Negative Risks or 1. Risk Register
threats (updates)
1. Risk management Plan 2. Strategies for Positive 2. Project
Risks or Opportunities management plan
2. Risk Register 3. Strategy for Both (updates)
Threats and 3. Risk-related
Opportunities Contractual
4. Continget Response agreements
Strategy

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
 Responses to Risk

NEGATIVE RISKS POSITIVE RISKS

❖ AVOIDANCE ❖ EXPLOIT
❖ TRANSFER ❖ SHARE (berbagi)
❖ MITIGATION ❖ ENHANCE (tingkatkan)
❖ ACCEPTANCE ❖ ACCEPTANCE

THREATS OPPORTUNITIES

❑ CONTINGENT RESPONSE STRATEGY

 MERESPON RISIKO
1. Menghindari Risiko ( Risk Avoidance)
Berarti tidak akan mengalami kerugian namun akan kehilangan kesempatan / keuntungan
contoh didalam kontrak : adanya klausula pengecualian (Exemption clause)
2. Mereduksi (Pengurangan) Risiko ( Risk Reduction)
a. Pendidikan & pelatihan pegawai
b. Proteksi fisik untuk mengurangi kerugian dilingkungan sekitar.
c. Jaminan konsistensi dalam mengurangi risiko.
d. Proteksi fisik dalam melindungi orang & kepemilikan.
3. Absorbsi / Retensi Risiko ( Risk Retention / Absorbtion)
Tidak semua risiko dapat dilimpahkan ke pihak lain, untuk diatur
dengan retensi.
4. Transfer Risiko ( Risk Transfer)
Pada dasarnya tidak mengurangi sumber terjadinya risiko tetapi
hanya mentransfer / melimpahkan risiko kepada pihak lain sesuai
bentuk kontrak. ( sub contract / Asuransi)
LAMPIRAN
11.5 RISK RESPONSE PLANNING

Template

RISK TREATMENT SCHEDULE AND PLAN

Date of Risk Review…………………..
Compiled By …………………… Date
Function/Activity…………………. Reviewed By …………………… Date

The Risk Posible Risk Prefered Risk Rating Result of Person Responsible Timetable for How will this
In priority Order Treatment Options After Treatment Cost Benefit for Implementation Implementation Risk and The
From Risk Options Analysis of Option Treatment Options
Register A - Accept be Monitored
B - Reject

Bibuat di kertas A3 agar dapat disi dengan tulisan tangan (sementara)

AS/NZS 4360 : 1999, p.17

 Contoh : Rencana Tindakan
(Tanggapan & Perlakuan) ( Risk Treatment)
CONTOH
RISIKO pembekakan Biaya Pelaksanaan Terhadap Budget
Seksi : Operasi Proyek ………….
Kegiatan/Proyek : Pengendalian Biaya (Cost Control)

Sasaran / target : (1) Realisasi Biaya sesuai PEP (2) Control Biaya dan pelaporan secara periodik sesuai Baseline
Tanggal : Disusun oleh : Diperiksa oleh : Sumber : Kontrak
No Risiko Opsi Tanggapan Opsi yang Rating Biaya Penanggung Batas waktu Cara Memonitor
(Referensi & Perlakuan yang dipilih setelah A: Diterima jawab
pada Daftar Memungkinkan Treatment B: Ditolak
Prioritas
Risiko)

1 Anggaran/Budg (1) Memastikan Metode kerja Moderat Rp. …. Kepala Seksi Sampai Dipastikan saat
et tidak realistis pelaksanaan dan A Operasi Revisi PEP mengajukan Shop
(item 20,40,60, pekerjaan sesuai penggunaan Proyek ……. ditandatanga- Drawing, Metode
99) dengan anggaran material yang ni Direksi Kerja dan contoh
yang tersedia efektif dan material
(2) Memastikan efisien. mendapatkan
harga satuan persetujuan dari
pekerjaan sesuai yang berwenang.
dengan anggaran
yang tersedia

2 Kenaikan (1) Kaji ulang Metode Moderat Rp. ... Kepala Seksi Sebelum Dipastikan pada
harga2 dipasar kemungkinan pengadaan Operasi pelaksanaan waktu
adanya eskalasi yang baik A Proyek …… pekerjaan merencanakan dan
(2) Memastikan termasuk dimulai melaksanakan
dengan metode transfer ke pengadaan
pengadaan yang pihak lain mendapatkan
baik kesepakatan dari
para pihak dengan
harga sesuai
anggaran.
Uraikan lebih rinci pada kertas pendukung.
11.6 RISK MONITORING AND CONTROL
Menulusuri risiko yang teridentifikasi, memonitor
sisa risiko, mengidentifikasi timbulnya risiko baru,
melaksanakan rencana penanganan risiko, dan
evaluasi efektifitas melalui daur hidup proyek.
1. Risk Register
(updates)
2. Requested
1. Risk Reassessment changes
1. Risk management Plan 2. Risk Audits 3. Recommended
2. Risk Register 3. Variance & Trend corrective action
3. Approved Change Analysis 4. Recommended
Requests 4. Technical preventive
4. Work Performance performance action
Information measurement 5. Organizational
5. Performance reports 5. Reserve Analysis process
6. Status meetings assets (updates)
6. Project
management
plan (updates)

INPUTS TOOLS & OUTPUTS

TECHNIQUES
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

Thank you