Our Energy Future
The Advanced Energy Initiative
University of California, San Diego
Dr. Stephen Mayfield
What is ENERGY?
Energy = Capacity to do Work
Work = Force multiplied by the Distance
1. Source: Tony S
First law of thermodynamics:
Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, it can only be
transformed from one state (form) to another
Source: Unknown Source: Unknown 2. Source: Toru Yamanaka 3. Source: iStockphoto Source: Unknown
Chemical Solar Mechanical Nuclear Electrical
Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy
1. [Link]
2. [Link]
3. [Link]
Primary Sources of Energy Today
Other 0.7%
Combustibles 10%
Hydro 2.2%
Nuclear 5.8%
Oil
33.2%
Coal
27%
Gas
21.1%
Total Supply 12,207 Mtoe*
Source: Unknown
*Million tonnes of oil equivalent
Relationship of Energy and Power
Oil is stored energy Electricity is power
1. Source: BlessOilField Source: Unknown
Stored energy for use any time Delivered by transmission for immediate use
2. Source: John Sullivan
Source: Unknown
Power = energy over time (kWh)
1. [Link]
2. [Link]
How Important is Energy?
40%
Increase
by 2020 Energy is the World’s Largest Market
Telecom
$2.0T
Chemicals
$1.7T
Energy Agriculture
$5.8T Pharma
$2.5T
$0.65T
Auto
$1.9T
Packaged
Food
$1.4T
The World’s Energy Market is Growing
Faster then the world’s population
Source: NASA
[Link]
Why are we continuing to consume
more oil every year?
Increased Energy Consumption leads to a Better Quality of Life
Without oil
Without coal
Without gas
[Link] Source: Frank Van Mierlo
Why do we use Liquid Fuels?
Energy Density of Transportation Fuels Inexpensive
40000
35000
30000
25000 1. Source: Shutterstock
Images LLC
Source: Unknown
Btu/L
20000 1 gallon gasoline 1 gallon Fiji Water
15000 $3.92 $7.15
10000
5000
0
Gasoline
Li-ion battery
Jet Fuel
150 bar hydrogen
LNG
Ethanol
Diesel Fuel
Source: Unknown
1 gallon gasoline Pizza
116,275 Btu 116,275 Btu (108.6 slices)
$3.92 $217
1. [Link]
Demand for World’s Oil is Increasing
Oil Consumption by Region
Million barrels per day
Source: Unknown
The American Dream is Universal
Beijing Freeway 2009 –
19 Million New Cars in
China in 2010
In 2011 worldwide number
of cars surpassed
1 BILLION
1. Source: David Gray, Reuters
700,000,000 Number of Cars
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000 World
300,000,000 US
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
1. [Link] Source: Unknown
US Oil Production 1920 - 2013
DOE - EIA
Source: U.S Energy Information Administration
[Link]
Isn’t Fracking going to make the US an
Oil exporter soon?
Source: Arthur Berman, Petroleum Truth Report Source: Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute
Arthur Berman, Petroleum Truth Report Mark Perry, American Enterprise Institute
November 2012 July 2013
The Department of Energy does not view the US as
becoming “Energy Independent” any time soon
Source: U.S Department of Energy
The real success is that we are becoming
more Energy Efficient!
Average production profiles for shale gas wells
Source: U.S Department of Energy
Overall field decline for Fracking wells
from production wells prior to 2011
Production pre2011 wells 1480
Number of wells
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: J. David Baker from Drill Baby Drill, 2013 Post-carbon Institute
North America at night
Source: NASA
Fracking is not new technology
$100/barrel simply allows the technology to be used
We need intervention to address this crazy addiction
Source: NASA Source: U.S Energy Information Administration
Satellite view of Gas (red) and Oil (green)
North Dakota at night! wells in North Dakota
So just how much oil do we have?
Source: U.S Energy Information Administration
The US consumes 7 billion barrels of petroleum per year
17
Oil Production Over the Last 10,000 Years
Thousands of barrels/day
Source: U.S Energy Information Administration
Time (years)
When we think about energy we
also need to think about food
Source: Unknown Source: Unknown
Both are Chemical Energy: The energy in a substance
that can be released by a chemical reaction to do work!
Fuel* and Food are both the biological conversion of
sunlight energy into chemical energy -
Photosynthesis!
Source: Unknown
Carbohydrate Lipids
Protein
*Petroleum (algae) and Coal (plants) are simply fossil Photosynthate
Food & Fuel – Two Sides of the Same Coin
Chemical Energy
Food Energy Fuel Energy
Source: iStockphoto
1 gallon of gas = 31,500 calories
1 bushel of corn = 84,000 calories
1 bushel of corn = 2.8 gallons EtOH
Source: Unknown Source: Unknown
Average American Average American
consumes 2000-3000 consumes 40,000 calories
calories of food per day of fuel per day
Enormous yield increases over the last 50 years
were brought about by the Green Revolution
Source: Unknown
Source: Unknown Source: Unknown
The food price index can be overlaid
On the oil price index
1. Source: Paul Chefruka
[Link]
World Population and Energy Production Are
Closely Linked
Thousands of barrels/day
Millions of people
Time (years)
Source: Unknown
So does that mean tough luck
for the rest of the world?
1. Source: AFP, Getty Images
Source: Unknown
1. [Link]
The World Consumes 16 Terawatts of
Energy every Year - 85% Fossil Fuel
The Good News
Source: Unknown
The Sun Provide 86,000 Terawatts of Energy Every Year
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