Structural Reliability Powered by Strurel: Sofistik 2020
Structural Reliability Powered by Strurel: Sofistik 2020
SOFiSTiK | 2020
RELY
Structural Reliability powered by Strurel®
SOFiSTiK AG
This manual is protected by copyright laws. No part of it may be translated, copied or reproduced, in any form or by
any means, without written permission from SOFiSTiK AG. SOFiSTiK reserves the right to modify or to release
new editions of this manual.
The manual and the program have been thoroughly checked for errors. However, SOFiSTiK does not claim that
either one is completely error free. Errors and omissions are corrected as soon as they are detected.
The user of the program is solely responsible for the applications. We strongly encourage the user to test the
correctness of all calculations at least by random sampling.
Front Cover
Project: Queensferry Crossing | Photo: Bastian Kratzke
Contents | RELY
Contents
Contents i
Literature 2-13
SOFiSTiK 2020 i
RELY | Contents
5 Examples 5-1
5.1 Simple Beam: Explicit Limit-State Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-2
5.2 Simple Beam: Finite Element Limit-State Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4
6 Appendix 6-1
Literature 6-19
ii SOFiSTiK 2020
Task Description | RELY
1 Task Description
Rely is an add-on to the SOFiSTiK program that performs reliability analysis, where the engi-
neering system of interest is modeled using one of the SOFiSTiK finite element modules. The
kernel of Rely is powered by the stand-alone software package Strurel. Different structural
reliability methods are provided:
2 Theoretical Principles
2.1 Introduction
In engineering, the system of interest is approximated by a model. The behavior of the model
depends on its input parameters; for a finite element model of a structure, this can be material
parameters like the Young’s modulus, or the applied loading. The state of the input parameters
is usually not known with certainty: e.g., the snow that lies on a roof, the wind-load that acts
on a building, or the future Young’s modulus of a concrete slab to be designed are uncertain.
In reliability analysis, all parameters whose uncertainty influences the behavior of the system
are modeled as random variables.
For some outcomes of the random variables, the behavior of the system will be undesirable:
e.g. parts of the structure will collapse, the state of the system can lead to fatalities, or the
serviceability of the system is no longer maintained. Such undesired events are called failure
F. Reliability analysis aims at evaluating the probability that a failure event occurs, pf = Pr(F).
The smaller the probability of failure, the larger is the reliability of the system. A measure
for the degree of safety of the system is given by the reliability index β. The reliability index
is a decreasing function of the probability of failure and is defined through the inverse of the
standard normal CDF at the probability of failure: β = −−1 (pf ). This relation is illustrated in
Fig. 2.6.
In structural reliability, the failure event F is defined in terms of a so-called limit-state function
g(X), where X is the vector of random variables of the problem. Failure occurs if and only
if g(X) ≤ 0. This concept of the limit-state function defining failure is illustrated in Fig. 2.1.
For some problems the limit-state function can be defined in terms of the demand S and the
capacity R as g(X) = R − S (Fig. 2.2). If demand and capacity cannot be separated easily,
the limit-state function is often defined as the difference between some threshold value and
the corresponding model output; e.g. the displacement at the tip of a cantilever beam versus
the maximum allowed displacement for that system. For a detailed introduction to structural
reliability, the reader is referred to Ditlevsen and Madsen [2], Melchers [3], Papaioannou [4].
x2
0.06 fX(x)
15 safe domain
Joint distribution
g(x)>0
fX(x)
0.04
10 g(x)=0
failure domain
0.02
g(x)<0
5 0
15
g(x)=0
10
safe domain
fX2(x2) x2 failure domain 15
5 10
0 x1
0 5 10 15 5 x1
0 0
Marginal fX1(x1)
distributions
Figure 2.1: Illustration of the general reliability problem, for the case of two random variables.
(taken from Straub [1])
Capacity R
Demand S
r, s
where ƒX (x) denotes the joint probability density function of the random vector X, and x is an
outcome of X. In Eq. (2.1) the probability of failure is expressed as the integral over the failure
domain. However, the failure domain is usually only known implicitly through the definition of
the limit-state function g(X). Eq. (2.1) can equivalently be expressed as:
Z
pf = g (x) ƒX (x) dx (2.2)
X
For some reliability methods it is convenient to work in the so-called standard normal space.
Let us assume that the vector of random variables X can be expressed in terms of a vector of
independent standard normal random variables U and a transformation T : U → X. Outcomes
x of X can consequently be expressed as functions of underlying independent standard normal
random variables U with outcome . The reliability problem in Eq. (2.1) and Eq. (2.2) can then
be written as:
Z
pf = g (T()) φU () d (2.4)
U
where φU () is the joint probability density function of the vector of independent standard
normal random variables U. The transformation is illustrated in Fig. 2.3.
For the transformation T, different transformation methods are available in the literature. Three
well-known methods are:
1
60
s g(r,s) = 0 uS 0
40
-1
-2
20
-3
0 -4
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
r uR
Figure 2.3: Example of a transformation to standard normal space with two random variables R
and S: The probability mass in the failure domain (colored areas) is identical in the original and in
the standard normal space.
(taken from Straub [1])
The integral in Eq. (2.2) or Eq. (2.4) can usually not be solved analytically, and, therefore, has
to be handled numerically. The various reliability methods differ in their treatment of the integral
in Eq. (2.4). Most methods aim at minimizing the number of limit-state function calls. This is
because in structural reliability the limit-state function is commonly expressed as a function that
depends on the outcome of a finite element analysis. Consequently, every time the limit-state
function is evaluated, a finite element analysis must be performed - which renders the reliability
analysis of large finite element systems computationally expensiive.
pf = EU g (T(U))
(2.5)
where EU [·] denotes the expectation with respect to the vector of uncorrelated standard normal
random variables U. Drawing N random samples 1 , 2 , . . . , N from U, this expectation can
be approximated as:
N
1X
p̂f = g (T( )) (2.6)
N =1
Please note that the value of g (T( )) follows a Bernoulli distribution with mean value pf .
Consequently, p̂f · N has a Binomial distribution with mean pf · N. In plain terms, p̂f equals the
100
Samples in the failure domain Samples
80
60
s g(r,s) = 0
40
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
r
Figure 2.4: 1000 samples obtained with Monte Carlo simulation. The problem has two random
variables: capacity R and demand S. The failure domain is illustrated in standard normal space.
(taken from Straub [1])
number of failed samples Nƒ , i.e. the number of samples for which g (T( )) ≤ 0, divided by
N
the total number of samples, i.e. p̂f = Nƒ . Therefore, the estimate p̂f has a mean value of pf
(i.e. the estimate is unbiased), and the standard deviation σp̂f of p̂f is
v
t pf (1 − pf ) t pf
u v
σp̂f = ≈ (2.7)
N N
where the approximation is valid if pf is small such that pf pf 2 . The coefficient of variation
δp̂f of p̂f is
v
f
u1 − p 1
δp̂f = (2.8)
t
≈p
N · pf N · pf
The variance of the estimate p̂f depends on the probability of failure pf and on the number of
samples N used in Eq. (2.6). The dependency between pf , N and δp̂f is illustrated in Fig. 2.5.
It is shown that the required number of samples for a target coefficient of variation increases
fast with a decrease of pf . Usually, the true value of pf is not known, since it is the target of the
analysis. Therefore, equation Eq. (2.8) is approximated using the estimate p̂f as:
1
δp̂f ≈ Æ (2.9)
N · p̂f
T subjected to g(T()) = 0
p
∗ = rg min (2.10)
1e+14
1e+12
1e+10
Number of samples N
1e+08 1%
20% 50%
5% 10%
1e+06
10000
100
1
1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 1e-05 1e-06 1e-07 1e-08 1e-09
probability of failure pf
Figure 2.5: Number of samples N required for different coefficients of variation δp̂f .
0.1
0.01
probability of failure pf
0.001
0.0001
1e-05
1e-06
1e-07
1e-08
1e-09
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
reliability index β
Figure 2.6: Relation between the reliability index β and the probability of failure pf .
u* φ(u*)
16 5 G´(u)=0
fX(x)
φU(u)
12
0 g(T(u))=0
U2
X2
u*
4
−5
g(x)=0
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 0 5 10
X1 U1
Figure 2.7: Design point and linear approximation of the limit state surface. Left side: original
random variable space; right side: standard normal space.
(taken from Klüppelberg, Straub, and Welpe [7])
The design point ∗ is the most likely point of failure in the investigated problem and, thus,
also referred to as Most Likely ∗
p Failure Point. The distance of to the origin, i.e. the length of
∗ , is denoted as βFORM = ∗ T ∗ .
If the design point of the problem is known, a first order probability estimate of pf can be
computed as:
where (·) denotes the CDF of the standard normal distribution. The concept of FORM is
illustrated in Fig. 2.7.
The main problem in FORM is to solve the optimization problem that gives the design point ∗ .
Since an optimization problem has to be solved, the limit-state function is usually required to
be differentiable. In Rely , different optimization algorithms are available.
A well-known problem in optimization is the presence of multiple optima. Note that a single run
of an optimization algorithm can only find a single (local) minimum. To obtain a good approx-
imation of the probability of failure, all dominating minima must be detected and considered.
Repeated runs with random starting points will at least indicate the presence of multiple min-
ima. If there are multiple local design points, an upper bound of the probability estimate can be
obtained by adding up the failure probabilities of all detected (the global and all local) design
points.
φU ()
Z Z
pf = g (T()) φU () d = g (T()) ψ() d (2.12)
U X ψ()
where ψ() is called importance sampling density and is a joint PDF over . In importance
sampling the second integral in Eq. (2.12) is approximated: Instead of sampling from φU (),
samples are drawn from ψ(). Let z with = 1, . . . , N denote samples from ψ. The probability
of failure pf is estimated as:
N
1X φU (z )
p̂f = g (T(z )) (2.13)
N =1 ψ(z )
In the theoretical optimal case, i.e. for ψopt () = p1f g (T()) φU (), only a single sample is
needed to determine the true probability of failure. However, ψopt itself requires knowledge
about the true probability of failure and the explicit shape of the failure domain, and, thus, the
use of ψopt is not practical. In general, importance sampling methods aim at selecting the
importance sampling density ψ such that it approximates ψopt .
In practice, the importance sampling density is often centered around the design point (or
an approximated design point). Usually, the importance sampling density is selected as
ψ(1 , . . . , N ) = N
Q
=1
φ − , cen , where φ denotes the standard normal PDF and ,cen is
the th coordinate of the (approximated) design point.
The method is illustrated in Fig. 2.9. Here, the coordinate system ν is selected in such a way
that the hyperplane through the design point is perpendicular to the first Cartesian coordinate
ν1 . The origin of the coordinate system ν is the same as the origin of . Samples of ν are
80 80
60 60
s s g(r,s) = 0
40 g(r,s) = 0 40
ψ(r,s) f (r,s)
20 20
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
r r
Figure 2.8: Samples of capacity R and demand S. Left side: samples according to the importance
sampling density ψ centered around the design point in original space. Right side: samples from
the original PDF ƒX (x); i.e., samples from Monte Carlo simulation. It can be seen that importance
sampling produces more samples in the failure domain than Monte Carlo sampling - even if the
total number of samples used in importance sampling is smaller than the one used in Monte Carlo
sampling.
(taken from Straub [1])
ν1
GHIS(ν)
design point
FORM hyperplane
d(νa) d(νb)
βFORM
ν2-n
νa νb
samples from ψ(ν)
Figure 2.9: Illustration of line sampling
(taken from Straub [1])
generated on the hyperplane that is parallel to the FORM hyperplane and goes through the
origin. Let ψ(ν) denote the importance sampling density that is used to generate this samples.
Typically, ψ(ν) is selected as the standard normal distribution for ν2 , . . . , νn , where n is the
total number of random variables. Since the samples should lie on the hyperplane, ν1 = 0 for
all samples. Next, for each sample ν from ψ(ν), a line search is performed to find the distance
of the limit-state surface perpendicular to the hyperplane. This distance is denoted d(ν ). In
this case, the probability of failure pf is estimated from the samples as:
N
1X
p̂f = (−d(ν )) (2.14)
N =1
The idea of directional sampling is to first generate a random direction; i.e. generate realiza-
tions j with j = 1, . . . , n − 1. Next, a gradient-free line search in the generated direction is
applied to find the point for which the limit-state function becomes zero. The distance of that
point to the origin is denoted r . Based on a total number of N samples, the probability of failure
pf can be approximated as:
N
1X
2 2
p̂f = 1 − χn r (2.15)
N =1
where χn2 is the CDF of the chi-squard distribution with n degrees of freedom.
This method can cope with problems that have multiple (local) design points, or if failure is
defined as the union of different failure modes. However, directional sampling is not suitable
for problems with many random variables.
Adaptive sampling does not require the limit-state function to be differentiable. If more than one
important regions are detected, a warning is issued. The efficiency of the method decreases
with the number of random variables of the problem.
where F are intermediate failure events that are nested, i.e. F0 ⊃ F1 ⊃ . . . ⊃ FM = F. The
failure events F are defined as F = {g(X) ≤ c }, where c are real coefficients with c0 = ∞ >
c1 > . . . > cM = 0. Commonly, the values of c are chosen adaptively such that the conditional
probabilities Pr(F |F−1 ) are equal to a predefined threshold probability p0 . The probability p0
is usually set to 10%. The algorithm stops as soon as c becomes smaller or equal than zero.
In this case c is set to zero; i.e., c = cM = 0.
The number of samples at each level is kept constant in Rely . Standard Monte Carlo simulation
is applied to compute Pr(F1 ) = Pr(F1 |F0 ). All other conditional probabilities are approximated
by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. In Rely the adaptive MCMC with
optimal scaling proposed by Papaioannou et al. [11] is implemented: The proposal distribution
in the MCMC step is scaled such that the acceptance rate of a proposed sample is close to an
optimal acceptance rate.
The subset simulation method is illustrated in Fig. 2.10. The limit-state surface of the example-
problem is illustrated in sub-figure (l). As shown in sub-figure (a), the method starts with
Monte Carlo sampling. The samples that are contained in the region outlined in sub-figure
(b) represent the p0 -fraction of the samples in sub-figure (a) with the smallest value of the
limit-state function. The first intermediate failure domain (black line in sub-figure (b)) is chosen
such that only the p0 -fraction of the samples (depicted in sub-figure (b)) fall into it. This samples
are used as seed values for the MCMC sampling, as shown in sub-figure (c). The described
procedure is continued until at least a p0 -fraction of samples is in the true failure domain.
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
u2 0 u2 0 G(U) - c1 = 0
−1 −1
−2 −2
−3 −3
−4 Pr(E1) = 0.1 −4
−5 −5
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
u1 u1
c) Samples of U conditional on {G(U) - c1 < 0} d) 2nd intermediate limit state surface and complying samples
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
u2 0 G(U) - c1 = 0 0 G(U) - c2 = 0
−1 −1
−2 −2
−3 −3
−4 Pr(E2|E1) = 0.1 −4
−5 −5
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
u1 u1
k) Samples of U conditional on {G(U) - c5 < 0} l) Original limit state surface and complying samples
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
u2 0 G(U) - c5 = 0 0 G(U) = 0
−1 −1
−2 −2
−3 −3
−4 Pr(E6|E5) = 0.4 −4
−5 −5
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
u1 u1
Literature
[1] Daniel Straub. Lecture Notes in Structural Reliability. Tech. rep. TU München, 2012.
[2] Ove Ditlevsen and Henrik O Madsen. Structural reliability methods. Vol. 178. Wiley New
York, 1996.
[3] Robert E Melchers. Structural reliability analysis and prediction. John Wiley New York,
1999.
[4] Iason Papaioannou. Non-intrusive Finite Element Reliability Analysis Methods. TU
München, 2012.
[5] Michael Hohenbichler and Rudiger Rackwitz. “Non-normal dependent vectors in struc-
tural safety”. In: Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division 107.6 (1981), pp. 1227–
1238.
[6] Pei-Ling Liu and Armen Der Kiureghian. “Multivariate distribution models with pre-
scribed marginals and covariances”. In: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 1.2 (1986),
pp. 105–112.
[7] Claudia Klüppelberg, Daniel Straub, and Isabell M. Welpe. Risk - A Multidisciplinary In-
troduction. Springer, 2014.
[8] Stephan Gollwitzer. Strurel – Users Manual. Tech. rep. RCP Consult GmbH, 2014.
[9] Michael Hohenbichler and Ruediger Rackwitz. “Improvement of second-order reliability
estimates by importance sampling”. In: Journal of Engineering Mechanics 114.12 (1988),
pp. 2195–2199.
[10] Siu-Kui Au and James L Beck. “Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions
by subset simulation”. In: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 16.4 (2001), pp. 263–277.
[11] Iason Papaioannou et al. “MCMC algorithms for subset simulation”. In: Manuscript, En-
gineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universität München (2014).
[12] A. Hasofer and N. Lind. “An Exact and Invariant First-order Reliability Format”. In: Journal
of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE 100.EM1 (1974), pp. 111–121.
[13] Rüdiger Rackwitz and Bernd Fiessler. “Structural reliability under combined random load
sequences”. In: Computers & Structures 9.5 (1978), pp. 489–494.
[14] Armen Der Kiureghian and Mario De Stefano. “Efficient algorithm for second-order relia-
bility analysis”. In: Journal of engineering mechanics 117.12 (1991), pp. 2904–2923.
[15] T Abdo and R Rackwitz. “Reliability of uncertain structural systems”. In: Proc. Finite
Elements in Engineering Applications (1990), pp. 161–176.
3 Input Description
Record Items
CTRL TRAN SEED SVAL CDBP CLSE ENTR
OUTP NPRI IMON LSFR PRUV PRXV
VAR NAME TYPE PTYP P1 V1 P2 V2
P3 V3 P4 V4 VAL UMIN UMAX
CHAV TXT TID
CORR VAR1 VAR2 C
PROJ DAT CDB
FUNC NAME EXPR
SLSF VARN EXPR
MC NSPL LSF SAVE SAPD FSAV FSAP SPLS
SENS
IS NSPL DSPT LSF
LS NSPL SPNT LSF EPSC GSTP
DS NSPL LSF EPSC GSTP
ADS NSPL SPNT LSF
FORM SPNT OPTA GRDM GSTP MIT1 MIT2 EPSC
SMU LSF
SORM SPNT OPTA GRDM GSTP MIT1 MIT2 EPSC
SMU LSF
MVFO SPNT GRDM GSTP RELA LSF
SUBS NSPL P0 LMDA NCS LSF
EXDS SDES CNTR SAIF SAVE SAPD LSF SPRD
RSF NAME ANSA LSF LOAD SAVE
The records HEAD, END and PAGE are described in the genearl manual ’SOFiSTiK Basics’.
CTRL
TRAN specifies the method that is used to transform probability distributions from an underlying
standard normal space.
With the flag SEED, seed values can be specified. In Strurel, seven predefined seed values
are available, corresponding to SEED 1,. . . ,7. If SEED is set to 8, the seed is computed based
on the current time.
SVAL defines whether starting solutions are defined in U- or in X-space. Thus, the state of
SVAL influences the option VAL in VAR.
For some problems it might be required that errors in the limit-state function are not treated as
fatal; i.e. that the simulation is allowed to continue even if some of the limit-state function calls
failed. The flag CLSE controls how errors in the limit-state function call are treated.
A failed limit-state evaluation can have multiple reasons. One the one hand, there might be
a syntax error in the input file of the finite element model, or the finite element solver might
not achieve convergence for the specified parameter values. One the other hand, there could
be a temporary problem with the SOFiSTiK license (e.g., because the user starts accidentally
another finite element calculation without having enough licenses). The error mentioned in the
second case could possibly be resolved by restarting the last call to the finite element solver.
By means of ENTR, the number of repeated trials after an error in the limit-state function call
can be specified.
See also:
OUTP
This record defines the random variables of the problem. At least a single random variable has
to be defined in a project.
NAME defines the name that is associated with the random variable. The name of a random
variable can be up to eight characters long. Empty names are not allowed. No two random
variables with the same name must exist. No distinction is made between upper and lower
case letters.
The type of the distribution of the random variable is set by means of either the key-word TYPE
or the distribution id TID. Either TYPE or TID must be specified. An overview of the distribution
types TYPE available in Strurel is given in Table 3.5. The specification of the distribution type by
means of the key-word TYPE is only available for the most common types. All other distribution
types must be defined in terms of their id through the key-word TID. The ids of all distributions
available is listed in the table in Appendix A.
PTYP specifies how the distribution of the random variable is defined. Available options are
MOME and PARA:
• PARA: the distribution is defined in terms of its parameters. The number of parameters
required to define a distribution depends on the type of the distribution (specified in TYPE).
• MOME: the distribution is defined in terms of its mean value and standard deviation. If the
distribution has more than two parameters, then the 3rd parameter and, optionally, the 4th
parameter have to be supplied as well.
The mean value of the distribution or its first parameter can either be defined as as a fixed value
in P1 or as a link to another random variable in V1. If P1 is set, V1 must not be defined - and
vice versa. P1 expects a floating-point number, and V1 expects the name of random variable
that is already defined. If P1 is used, the mean value or first parameter of the distribution is
constant and equals the value specified in P1. If V1 is used, the mean value or first parameter
of the distribution is not constant and equals the realization of the random variable specified
in V1. If neither P1 nor V1 is specified, P1 is set to zero by default. P2/V2, P3/V3 and P4/V4
behave accordingly.
If a starting solution for the random variable is requested, the value specified in VAL will be
used. Depending on whether CTRL SVAL U or CTRL SVAL X is used, VAL is defined in U- or
in X-space, respectively.
UMIN and UMAX define the range of admissible values in U-space. If their value is not explicitly
specified, the value is set based on the floating point precision of your system.
If CHAV is not set explicitly, the specified mean of the random variable will be used as its
characteristic value.
The following table lists the available distribution types for random variables:
C is the correlation coefficient between random variables VAR1 and VAR2. By default, all
random variables are considered uncorrelated.
3.7 PROJ – Define the SOFiSTiK project that evaluates the limit-state
function
Defines the SOFiSTiK project that needs to be computed in order to evaluate the limit-state
function. For the special case that the limit-state function is defined explicitly by means of a
mathematical function, this record does not have to be specified.
Within the dat-file specified in DAT, the current realization of the random variable VARNAME
can be addressed as #VARNAME.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the individual functions can be addressed by their
NAME.
If no SOFiSTiK project was specified by means of PROJ, EXPR defines the limit-state function
as an explicit mathematical expression. The functional expression of the limit-state function
must start with an equal sign (i.e., with ’=’). An example of an explicit limit-state function
definition that does not involve the SOFiSTiK FEM-module is:
Please do not forget the equal sign at the beginning of the functional expression.
If a SOFiSTiK project was specified through PROJ, EXPR is ignored. In this case, the value of
NAME is retrieved from the CDB specified in PROJ. Consequently, NAME must be defined in
the dat-file specified in PROJ; e.g., by means of #STO.
Note: If the limit-state function is expressed in terms of a finite element analysis, the SOFiSTiK
@KEY can be used in the DAT-file specified in PROJ to access the CDB of the finite element
solver. An introduction to the @KEY concept can be found in the SOFiSTiK Basics-manual.
The structure of the CDB is documented in the file [Link] that can be found in the
installation folder of SOFiSTiK.
With SLSF, a user-defined limit-state function for the system reliability problem can be speci-
fied. By default, the system reliability problem is defined as follows: The limit-state functions
defined through FUNC are treated as belonging to components of a series system. Thus, if
failure occurs in at least one local limit-state function, the entire system is assumed to fail.
SLSF can be called only once. Ideally, the command should be called after all local limit-state
function were defined through FUNC. Either VARN or EXPR must be specified, but not both at
the same time.
If the local limit-state functions are defined explicitly using FUNC EXPR, then the system limit-
state function must be specified by means of EXPR. EXPR defines the limit-state function of
the system reliability problem as a explicit mathematical expression. Note that similar to FUNC
EXPR, the functional expression of the limit-state function must start with an equal sign (i.e.,
with ’=’). The names of the local component limit-state functions can be used as variables (i.e.,
’#’ followed by the name of the LSF) in the functional expression EXPR.
If the local limit-state functions are defined within a separate DAT-file specified in PROJ DAT,
then the system limit-state function must be specified also in that DAT-file. In this case, the
name of the variable used to store the value of the evaluated limit-state function in the CDB
must be given in VARN.
SAVE Name of a file to which the generated samples are LT ""
written.
FSAV Name of a file to which the failed samples are written. LT ""
REST Restart simulation using samples from specified file LT ""
Performs a Monte Carlos simulation (see Section 2.3) with NSPL samples.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is [Link]
LSF is a proper limit-state function (and not a response surface function), then the only effect
of LSF is on the ’analysis log’. The final results will be computed for all limit-state functions
defined.
All processed samples are written to the file specified in SAVE. The structure of the file is as
follows: Each generated sample is written to a separate row. The first K columns contain the
values of all defined limit-state functions evaluated for the sample at hand, where K denotes the
number of limit-state functions defined. The ordering of the limit-state functions corresponds
to the order of their definition. Thereafter comes a column that lists the values of the limit-state
function of the system reliability problem (see SLSF). If the specified limit-state function is a
resonse surface function, then only the the value of the evaluated response surface function
is listed in the first column; no other results of limit-state function are outputted. The next
M columns list the value of the specified random variables, where M denotes the number of
random variables defined. The last M columns list the value of the specified random variables
transformed to the underlying independent standard Normal space. Note that if a response
surface function is specified as limit-state function, only the value of the specified function is
written to the file (i.e., K = 1 in this case). The same holds for the faileed samples which are
written to the file specified in FSAV.
The values of all random variables as well as the values of all specified limit-state functions are
stored in memory for each evaluated sample. For how this data can be re-used, please have a
look at the documentation of RSF.
• NO: the importance sampling density is centered around the origin in standard normal
space. Consequently, for this option importance sampling is equivalent to Monte Carlo
simulation.
• USE: the coordinates specified in VAR VAL are used as the coordinates for the centering.
• COMP: If no (approximated) design point is stored in the CDB, the design point is computed
by means of FORM. The FORM analysis is performed with default settings.
• CDB: If an already computed design point of the problem or an approximated design point
is stored in the CDB, this point is used as center of the importance sampling density. Please
have a look at CTRL CDBP. An approximated design point stored in the CDB is used only
if no design point is stored in the CDB. If no point is stored in the CDB, a warning is issued
and DSPT is changed to USE.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
SPNT Where to get the (approximate) design point from? LT USE
USE get starting point from VAR VAL
COMP design point is computed if no design point
is in CDB
CDB load point stored in CDB
GSTP Step size for the finite difference scheme in line- − 0.01
search algorithm.
EPSC Convergence criterion for line-search algorithm. − 0.001
SPNT controls the orientation of the hyperplane on which the samples are generated.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
A description of the options GSTP and EPSC is given in the section of FORM.
GSTP Step size for the finite difference scheme in line- − 0.01
search algorithm.
EPSC Convergence criterion for line-search algorithm. − 0.001
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
A description of the options GSTP and EPSC is given in the section of FORM.
SPNT controls the orientation of the hyperplane on which the samples are generated.
• NO: the search for the design point starts at the origin in standard normal space.
• USE: the coordinates specified in VAR VAL are used.
• COMP: If no (approximated) design point is stored in the CDB, the design point is computed
by means of FORM. The FORM analysis is performed with default settings.
• CDB: if some prior analysis already computed the design point of the problem or an ap-
proximated design point, this point is used as starting point. Please have a look at CTRL
CDBP. An approximated design point stored in the CDB is used only if no design point is
stored in the CDB.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
SPNT Where to start the search for the design point? LT NO
NO no starting solution specified
USE get starting point from VAR VAL
RND random starting point
GRAD from a gradient evaluation
CDB load point stored in CDB
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
• NO: The search for the design point starts at the origin in standard Normal space.
• USE: The coordinates specified in VAR VAL are used as the coordinates of the starting
point.
• RND: The starting point will be selected randomly in standard normal space.
• GRAD: The starting point will be generated from a gradient evaluation at the origin in stan-
dard normal space.
• CDB: If some previous analysis already computed the design point of the problem or an
approximated design point, this point is used as starting point. Please have a look at CTRL
CDBP. An approximated design point stored in the CDB is used only if no design point is
stored in the CDB.
Note: after a design point was detected with FORM (or SORM) the design point is stored in
the CDB. If already a design point is in the CDB, the design point in the CDB is overwritten if
the detected point is ’better’ than the one already in the CDB.
The global convergence in the search for the design point is controlled by EPSC. The search
stops if the following condition fulfilled:
where ϵ is equal to EPSC. The recommended range for EPSC ranges from 10−4 to 10−2 .
SMU is the relative precision in the Armijo-type stop criterion in the line search. The value of
SMU must be in the range 0 < SMU < 0.5.
HLRF (Hasofer and Lind [12] Rackwitz and Fiessler [13]) is widely used due to its simplicity and
rapid convergence. The design point is recursively approximated by the following expression:
∇g(T(k ))
2 ∇g(T(k )) k − g(T(k ))
T
k+1 = (3.2)
∇g(T(k ))
However, the algorithm might fail to converge under certain conditions (Der Kiureghian and
Stefano [14]).
Both RFLS and NLPQL are non-linear sequential quadratic programming algorithms; i.e., they
consist of two steps: first the direction is determined and then the step length. For a small
number of random variables, the implemented version of RFLS is slightly less efficient than
NLPQL. However, for problems with many random variables, the NLPQL algorithm might not
achieve convergence.
The RFLS algorithm is especially adjusted to the the objective T (Abdo and Rackwitz
p
[15]). In Rely , two line search strategies to determine an optimal step size are implemented:
an approximate line search and an exact line search. The exact line search is only done if
the approximate line search did not converge. The approximate line search is performed by
means of a quadratic interpolation/extrapolation. In each iteration step only one additional limit-
state evaluation is required. The maximum number of iterations in the approximate line search
algorithm is set in MIT1. The exact line search is performed by means of the golden section
method. Consequently, the exact line search requires considerable more limit-state evaluations
than the approximate line search. The maximum number of iterations in the exact line search
algorithm is set in MIT2. If convergence problems occur, it is recommended to increase MIT2.
For most problems the approximate line search should converge fast and the exact line search
is not needed. However, in the presence of strong curvatures, the approximate line search
might be inefficient or might not converge. For such problems, MIT1 can be set to zero, such
that only an exact line search is performed. In Rely , no updating scheme for the Hessian matrix
is used, because all known updating schemes can result in singular Hessians. Although some
precautions to prevent singularity of the Hessian during the iteration can be made, the solution
can be strongly affected by ill-conditioned Hessians. Especially for problems with many random
variables, this can lead to oscillations and convergence problems.
The NLPQL algorithm was originally designed by Schittkowskip (1981,1983). In Rely , the algo-
rithm is adapted to the special form of the objective function ( T ). The algorithm is suited
for problems with a small number of random variables (up to 20). It is considered to be very
robust, reliable and efficient in finding the design point. An efficient numerical Hessian update
scheme and a nearly exact line search algorithm is used. If the so-called quadratic subprob-
lem cannot be solved, it creates a similar quadratic subproblem which can always be solved.
This algorithm is recommended for problems that have a complicated and computationally de-
manding limit-state function but not more than 20 random variables. The maximum number of
iterations in the line search step is set in MIT1. The maximum number of limit-state evaluations
in one iteration of the line search is set in MIT2.
The COBYLA algorithm is a gradient-free algorithm based on Nelder/Mead (1965) and modi-
fied by Powell (1994) to include inequality constraints. It is less efficient and (in some cases)
also less reliable than the other mentioned algorithms. However, if the limit-state function is
non-differentiable (but it must still be smooth), COBYLA can be applied. If the limit-state func-
tion is neither smooth nor differentiable, FORM (and, thus, SORM) cannot be applied. Note:
COBYLA should only be used to determine a first approximation of the design point that is
used as input for other reliability methods. The maximum number of limit-state function calls
is determined as MAX(MAX(MIT1,MIT2)*N,100), where N is the total number of random vari-
ables.
SPNT Where to start the search for the design point? LT NO
NO no starting solution specified
USE get starting point from VAR VAL
RND random starting point
GRAD from a gradient evaluation
CDB load point stored in CDB
Please note: SORM has exaclty the same input parameters as FORM. For a detailed descrip-
tion of the input parameters please refer to FORM.
SPNT Where to start the search for the design point? LT NO
NO no starting solution specified
USE get starting point from VAR VAL
RND random starting point
GRAD from a gradient evaluation
CDB load point stored in CDB
Evaluates the derivative of the specified limit-state function (LSF) at the indicated starting point
(SPNT). Based on this information, sensitivity factors are derived.
If RELA is activated, an estimate for the design point is computed, based on the evaluated
derivative. However, for non-linear limit-state functions, the so-obtained approximation is typi-
cally rather crude.
Performs a subset simulation (see Section 2.10) with NSPL samples. It is recommended to set
NSPL always greater or equal than 500.
PZERO is the threshold probability of the intermediate failure domains. It can be any value
between ]0; 1[ . Usually, this value should not be changed.
LMDA defines the initial scaling factor of the proposal distribution. The admissible range for
LMDA is ]0; 1] . During the simulation, LMDA can be modified adaptively such that the ac-
ceptance of a sample proposed in a MCMC step is close to an optimal acceptance rate. The
absolute value of the parameter NCS defines after how many seed values LMDA is modified.
If NCS is set to zero, LMDA is not modified. If NCS is not zero, it’s absolute value should be
larger or equal than 5. If NCS is smaller than zero, all directions are treated as equal and LMDA
corresponds to the standard deviations of the proposal distribution. If NCS is larger than zero,
the standard deviations of the proposal distribution are estimated from the seed values, and
LMDA acts as a multiplier to achieve a near-optimal acceptance rate.
If multiple limit-state functions are defined, the limit-state function to use can be specified with
LSF. If the key LSF is not set explicitly, the first limit-state function that was defined is used.
CNTR Location of the center point of the design (relevant for LT NO
JOA, CC, FF, FFS, and P1).
NO no center point specified (origin is used)
USE get center point from VAR VAL
CDB load point stored in CDB
SAIF Name of a file from which samples are to be read. LT ""
SAVE Name of a file to which the generated samples are LT ""
written.
Evaluates the underlying model for a specified set of points. The points can be selected based
on a specific design, or read from an input file. The sampling design is specified using keyword
SDES.
If SDES is set to DAT, the points are retrieved from an input file. The path and filename of the
input file must be specified using keyword SAIF. The format of this input file is as follows: One
sampling point to evaluate per line. The values of the uncertain model parameters (random
variables) are assigned based on the columns in this file; i.e., the first column is associated
Alternatively, a predefined sampling design can be specified using keyword SDES. Available
options are (Note: M is used in the following to denote the number of random variables defined
for the problem at hand.):
• JOA: A total of 2 · M + 1 points are specified. The center point as well as two points on each
axis; one on the positive side and one on the negative side of the center point on each axis.
• CC: A central composite design is used, which means that 2 · M + 1 + 2M points are used.
• FF: A full factorial design is used, which means that 3M points are used. The points are
located in a hypercube.
• FFS: A full factorial design is used, which means that 3M points are used. The points are
located in a hypersphere.
• P1: Similar to JOA, however, only M + 1 points are specified. The center point as well as
one point on each axis; one located on the side of the center point that point towards the
origin.
The center point of the sampling design can be specified using the keyword CNTR. Available
options are:
• NO: The origin in standard Normal space is used as center point for the sampling design.
• USE: The coordinates specified in VAR VAL are used as the coordinates of the center point.
• CDB: If some previous analysis already computed the design point of the problem or an
approximated design point, this point is used as center point. Please have a look at CTRL
CDBP. An approximated design point stored in the CDB is used only if no design point is
stored in the CDB.
If the center point is to be retrieved from the CDB, the limit-state function of which the
design point is to be taken must be specified using the keyword LSF.
All processed samples are written to the file specified in SAVE. The structure of the file is as
follows: Each generated sample is written to a separate row. The first K columns contain the
values of all defined limit-state functions evaluated for the sample at hand, where K denotes the
number of limit-state functions defined. The ordering of the limit-state functions corresponds
to the order of their definition. Thereafter comes a column that lists the values of the limit-state
function of the system reliability problem (see SLSF). If the specified limit-state function is a
resonse surface function, then only the the value of the evaluated response surface function
is listed in the first column; no other results of limit-state function are outputted. The next
M columns list the value of the specified random variables, where M denotes the number of
random variables defined. The last M columns list the value of the specified random variables
transformed to the underlying independent standard Normal space.
The values of all random variables as well as the values of all specified limit-state functions are
stored in memory for each evaluated sample. For how this data can be re-used, please have a
look at the documentation of RSF.
LOAD Load the parameter vector from the specified file. LT ""
SAVE Save the computed parameter vector to the specified LT ""
file.
If no file is specified in LOAD, the parameters of the response surface function are computed
based on performed simulation runs. The data from the last performed Monte Carlo (MC)
simulation or the last performed experimental design (EXDS) are used.
The parameter vector can be written to a file, which can be specified through SAVE. Note: In
case the parameter vector is read from a file specified in LOAD, it will not be written to the file
specified in SAVE.
4 Output Description
If no errors occur, for most users, only the URSULA output will be of interest. In case of errors,
the monitoring and the results file can be helpful in tracking the errors down.
The verbosity of the output to the results file can be controlled with the command OUTP NPRI.
The verbosity of the output to the monitoring file can be controlled with the command OUTP
IMON.
For problems with a limit-state function that is computationally demanding to evaluate (i.e.,
already a single call of the limit-state function takes a considerable time), you might want to
output every single result of a limit-state function call. This can be done with the command
OUTP LSFR YES.
5 Examples
The input files which are explained here are to be found in the installation directory SOFiSTiK
in the subdirectory [Link]/english. Alternatively, you can find these examples in the TEDDY
menu HELP > EXAMPLES sorted by program name and language.
For additional help like tutorials, tutorial movies and practical examples please refer to the
SOFiSTiK Infoportal ([Link]/Infoportal).
w
E
l=20m
The center displacement of the mechanical model at hand has an analytical solution:
5q4 8 · 105 q
(E, q) = = (5.1)
32Ebh3 2.1952 E
PROG RELY
HEAD
!Distributed loading
!Type: Normal distribution
!Mean: 7 kN/m
END
First, the two random variables of the problem are defined: the variable modeling the Young’s
modulus E is called rv_E, the variable modeling the loading q is called rv_q. The limit-state
function is defined using the command FUNC. Note that the first character in the explicit ex-
pression of the limit-state function must be the equal sign (=).
Next, a FORM analysis with default settings is performed. Thereafter, the design point com-
puted with FORM is used to perform a Line Sampling (LS). The default number of samples
(2500) is used. Afterwards, subset simulation (SUBS) with 2000 samples per conditioning step
is done. The last reliability method run is Monte Carlo sampling (MC) with 1 · 105 samples.
The outputted summary of the results of the different reliability methods is:
Note that by default CTRL SEED is set to 8, and, therefore, only FORM will give the same result
each time the analysis is repeated. A reference solution of the problem was obtained as pf =
3.349 · 10−3 . In this case, the best estimate is given by line sampling: the estimate is closest to
the reference solution and has the smallest coefficient of variation. The coefficient of variation
of the estimate obtained with Monte Carlo simulation is more than an order of magnitude larger
than the one obtained with line sampling; despite the fact that Monte Carlo simulation required
almost 10 times as many limit-state function calls than line sampling. The estimate computed
with subset simulation is not as good as the one obtained from line sampling; however, subset
simulation with 2000 samples per conditioning step needed in total only half the number of
limit-state function calls that line sampling with 2500 samples needed.
+PROG AQUA
! define the cross-section of the beam
! define the material: the Young's modulus is a random variable
HEAD Plane Beam
NORM DIN 1045-1
MATE 1 E #rv_E
SREC 1 MNO 1 H .7 B .2
END
+PROG SOFIMSHA
! define the mesh of the beam with length 20m
HEAD Plane Beam
SYST FRAM
GRP 1
NODE NO X FIX
1 0 PY
21 20 PP
(2 20 1) (1 1)
BEAM (1 20 1) (1 1) (2 1)
END
+PROG SOFILOAD
! define the distributed loading -> the value of the loading is random!
HEAD Distributed load
LC 1
BEAM GRP 1 PA #rv_q
END
+PROG ASE
! solve the system
HEAD
LC 1
END
+PROG TEMPLATE
! Store the result in variable relfun
HEAD performance function
! max uy in m
LET#lf 1
@KEY N_DISP #lf
LET#uy @(11,UY)
Note: the random variables are used exactly like normal variables in the input file. The Young’s
modulus is called rv_E and the loading is referred to as rv_q. The result of the limit state
function is stored as variable with name rel_fun in the CDB.
PROG RELY
HEAD
!define the random variables
!Young's modulus
!type: Log-Normal distribution
!mean: 45e3 MN/m2
!C.o.V.: 10%
VAR 'rv_E' TYPE LOGN PTYP MOME P1 45.e+3 P2 4.5e+3
!Distributed loading
! type: Normal distribution
! mean: 7 kN/m
! [Link].: 1.6 kN/m
VAR 'rv_q' TYPE NORM PTYP MOME P1 7. P2 1.6
The definition of the two random variables is equivalent to the one of the explicit example
(Section 5.1). The limit-state function is defined using the commands FUNC and PROJ: PROJ
specifies which DAT file is to be executed, and FUNC defines under which name the returned
value of the limit-state function is stored in the CDB.
The reliability analysis is performed using FORM and LS. First, the design point is computed
with FORM; and second, the estimate of the linearized problem is improved by Line Sampling
with 100 samples. The outputted summary of the results is:
6 Appendix
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix A (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page A-1
APPENDIX A: DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS AND THEIR PARAMETERS
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix A (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page A-2
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
x 2
2
FX ( x )
4 Exponential f X ( x ) exp x 1 1
x 0
F X ( x ) 1 exp x
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-1
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
t 0
B ( y, r, t) xa
FX ( y ) ; y
B (r, t) ba
7 Gumbel
f X ( x ) exp x u exp x u
(max. Type I) C VIII) 1
F X ( x ) exp exp ( x u ) x u = =
0 6
F X ( x ) ex p ex p x C
6
8 Frechet k v
k 1
v k
f X (x) exp x k 0
(max. Type 1 2 2 1
II) I) v x x v (v ) 1 v 1 1
k k k
v k
F X ( x ) ex p k 1 k 2
x
9 Weibull k 1
x k
k x
(min. Type fX (x) exp 1
w k 0 2 2 1
III) I) w w x w 1 w 1 1
w k k k
x k
F X ( x ) 1 ex p
w
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-2
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
x 2
2
2 x e 2
e 2
e 1
ln(( x ) / )
FX ( x )
11 Rayleigh x 2
x
fX (x) exp
2
2 2
x 0 2
2 2
1 ( x )2
F X ( x ) 1 ex p
2
2
12 Standard Student t I) 1
1
1 2 x
2
fX (x) 1
2
x 0 0 ; 2
2
2
x
FX ( x )
f X ( z ) dz
13 Trapezoid
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-3
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
0 x 0 1 1
2 4
1 1
1
0
FX ( x ) x / 2 x / 2
15 Cauchy 1
fX (x)
1 x /
2
2 x
2
0 x 0
1 (x ) 1 2
erf exp
2 2 x 2
FX ( x ) 1
(x )
erf
2 x
18 Gumbel f X ( x ) exp x u exp x u C 1
x u
VIII)
(min, Type I) 0
6
F X ( x ) 1 exp exp ( x u )
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-4
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
fX (x) a 1 a k
x 0 k x a 0 ; a 1 k a
a 1
; a 2
k
a
k 0 a 1 a 2
FX ( x ) 1
x
22 Laplace 1 x
fX (x) ex p
2
x 0 2
1 ex p
1 x
fo r x
2
FX ( x )
2 ex p
1 x fo r x
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-5
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
25 Central
1 1 x
f X ( x) x
2
Chi-Square I) exp
/ 2
/2
2 2
0 x 0 2
x
f x z d z F x | k
1
FX ( x )
2
;
2
0
F see Type 5;
x here corresponds to in textbooks
2
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-6
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
1 2 1 x
2 2 2
x
FX ( x )
f X ( z ) dz
27 Student I) 1 1
0
2 t 2 xm
2
1
fX (x) 1 ;t x m; 1 ; 2
0 2
2
x
FX ( x )
f X ( z ) dz
k 1
28 Neville k x x k0
fX (x) ; x x
k 1 k 2
IX ) IX )
1 x
2
r k r
0
1
FX ( x ) 1
(1 ( x ) )
k
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-7
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
x m
0
xm ( X m ) k
y ; k E ; 3; 4;
3
h3 ; h4 ; ;
6 24
for 3 3 :
(1 36 h 4 ) 1
1/ 2
h3 1
h4 ; h3 ;
1 6 h4 (1 2 h 6 h 4 )
2 2 1/ 2
18 3
for 3 3 :
h3 1
h 4 h 4 27 h 4 ; h 3 ;
2
1 24 h 4 (1 10 h 42 h 4 )
2 2 1/ 2
3
44 4-Parameter x
Lognormal ln / x numerical numerical
1 x
V,VI) f (x) integration integration
( x )( x ) , 0
x
ln /
x
F (x)
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-8
APPENDIX B: Table 1: Standard Continuous Distributions
Notes:
a b
b 1
III. Complete Beta function: B a , b t a 1 1 t dt
0
a b
x
b 1
IV. Incomplete Beta function: B x , a , b t a 1 1 t dt
0
1 x2
V. Standard Gaussian density: ( x ) ex p
2 2
x
(d a ) ( c a ) ( d a ) ( c a ) ( b a )
3
2 2
( d a ) ( d a )( c a ) ( c a ) ( b a )
2 2 2
E X a V ar X (E X a)
2
3 (c d a b) 6 (c d a b)
X.
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-9
APPENDIX B: Table 2: Continuous Distribution Functions for Bayesian Analysis
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-10
APPENDIX B: Table 2: Continuous Distribution Functions for Bayesian Analysis
x t m , dt
m
X m , X
M m , t , dt
y ", ", n "
Y
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-11
APPENDIX B: Table 2: Continuous Distribution Functions for Bayesian Analysis
s nx n " x " y x"
2 2 2
n"
2 t
1 s" n " 1
xi x
x 2
s
2
X x m , tX
m , dt FM , ( m , ) F ( ) FM
(m ) n 1 i s" s"
n " 1
v " v n
n"
s 2 VII)
,
2 2 v n n "
F 1
( / 2 )
y
m x FY y x ", n ", s ", v " fY t dt
FM m
/ n
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-12
APPENDIX B: Table 2: Continuous Distribution Functions for Bayesian Analysis
37 (post.)
exp x u ) exp x u exp x i
1
t"
n p
i 1
u n " p
exp y
FX x u , exp exp x u FU u fU z dz
n " n n FY y 1
t"
t " t t
I,II,IX)
Frechet (max)
1 q n
fY y
n k
32 (pred.)
x
k 1
k v v k
v
nk q
exp v t kt
k k t 1 q
fX x v, k exp v fV v i 1
i
1 q
k
y
n "
k
1
k 1
43 (post.)
v x x n 1 q / k n " n n n " 1 k 1
k t" t" y
t " t t
1 q
n "
v k t v , n 1 p / k
k
y
k
k
F X x v , k ex p FV v FY y 1
x n 1 p / k t"
I,II,X)
Weibull (min)
m 1 n
fY y
n
31 (pred.)
x
k 1
x k k
k x w
nk m
exp w
k
t kt k t m 1
fX x w, k exp w fW w i 1
i
m 1 y
k
n "
k
1
k
n m 1 / k
ww k 1
38 (post.) w n " n n n " 1 y
k t" t"
x k t w
k
, n m 1 / k t " t t
F X x w , k 1 exp FW w 1
w n m 1 / k
n "
m 1
y
k
k
FY y 1 1
t"
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-13
APPENDIX B: Table 2: Continuous Distribution Functions for Bayesian Analysis
Notes:
a b
b 1
III. Complete Beta function: B a , b t a 1 1 t dt
0
a b
x
b 1
IV. Incomplete Beta function: B x , a , b t a 1 1 t dt
0
1 x2
V. Standard Gaussian density ( x ) ex p
2 2
x
VII. x 1 for x 0
0 for x 0
VIII. p 0.46
SOFiSTiK 2014 Appendix B (taken from Strurel – Users Manual, Gollwitzer, 2014) Page B-14
RELY | Appendix
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