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SIR Model in Epidemic Forecasting

These are important class notes based on the SIR model of epidemiology studying spread of infectious diseases and are organized in the form of a mind-map presentation.

Uploaded by

Dean Wood
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© All Rights Reserved
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22 views1 page

SIR Model in Epidemic Forecasting

These are important class notes based on the SIR model of epidemiology studying spread of infectious diseases and are organized in the form of a mind-map presentation.

Uploaded by

Dean Wood
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd


susceptible  
removed


stages 
Defining
Stages

infective



I
for
infective


etiology
or
œtology 
 ow
easily
the
disease
is
Tx
from
the

H 
S
for
susceptible


infected
to
susceptible
:
effective
contact
rate 
For
a
population
of
N
individuals  
R
for
Removed

societal
factors


Parameters

 ow
long
an
infective
person
remains

H 
How
fast
will
the
disease
spread?

not
the
duration
of
the
illness 
infective
-incubation
or
duration
of
infectivity

How
many
will
be
infected?

Purpose

How
many
will
remain
uninfected?


How
long
will
the
epidemic
last?

S-I-R
Model 
Math
Models
|
Epidemiology

 
Daniel
Bernoulli


Pasteur

Initiators
1822-1895

Discretion 

Kermack
and
McKendrick
Model 
Profound
and
lasting
effect
on
many

1927 s
 ubsequent
epedemiological
models


t=5
for
every
t
assuming
population
remains
constant
during
the
epidemic 
Analysis


 (t)
=
the
number
of
susceptible
people
after
t

S

days


I
(t)
=
the
number
of
infective
people
after
t


days
 
Time
in
Days

Units

 (t)
=
the
number
of
removed
people
after
t

R 
File
in
Excel

days


Set
Up


initial
conditions


Results

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