8.

Human Systems and Resource Use

Prediction of
Human Population
Growth

Demographic
Age/ Sex Pyramids
Transition Model
Figure 1 Age/sex pyramids and the demographic transition model (DTM) can be used in the
prediction of human population growth.

Used Beyond
Natural Income
Unustainably
Renewable
Natural Capital
Sustainably

Figure 2 Renewable natural capital can be used sustainably or unsustainably. If renewable natural capital is used beyond its
natural income, this use becomes unsustainable.

Waste Disposal
Options

Recycling Incineration Composting Landfill

Figure 3 Waste disposal options of solid waste include landfill, incineration, recycling, and composting.

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 8.1 Human Population and Dynamics
8.1.1 Demographic Variables
Demographic Tools

 Crude Birth Rate- is defined as the number of live births per thousand people in a population. The CBR is easy to
calculate and the data is readily available. For example:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
 Population Mortality- is defined as the number of live births per thousand people in a population. The CBR is
easy to calculate and the data are readily available. For example:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠
𝐶𝑟𝑢𝑑𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
 Total Fertility Rate- The total fertility rate is the average number of births per women of childbearing age. In
general, the highest fertility rates are found among the poorest countries, and few LEDCs have made the
transition from high birth rates to low birth rates. By contrast, the birth rates have reduced in most MEDCs.
 Natural increase rate (NIR)- is the increase in population as a result of the birth rate exceeding the death rate.
 Doubling time (DT)- refers to the length of time it takes for a population to double in size, assuming its natural
growth rate remains constant. Approximate values for it can be obtained using the following formula:
70
𝐷𝑜𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠) =
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒
8.1.2 Human Population Growth

The world’s population is growing

very rapidly. Up to 95% of population
growth is taking place in less
economically developed countries
(LEDCs). However, the world’s
population is expected to stabilize at
about 8.5 billion following a peak at
11 billion.
 Human population growth stresses
water systems, agricultural systems,
and energy systems.
 The impact of exponential growth is
that a huge amount of extra
resources are needed to feed, house,
Figure 4 The world’s population doubled between 1804 and 1922, between 1922 and 1959,
and between 1959 and 1974. It is thus taking less and less time for the population to double,
clothe, and look after the increasing
although growth has slowed down since 1999. number of people.
 However, the resource consumption
of much of the world’s poor
population (i.e. those in LEDCs) is much less than the resource consumption of populations in MEDCs where
population growth rates are much lower.
Age/ Sex Pyramids
A population pyramid is a bar or line graph on its side showing variations in the age structure and sex structure of a
population. Population pyramids tell us a great deal of information about the age and sex structure of a population:

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  A wide base indicates a high birth rate
 A narrowing base suggests falling birth rate
 Straight or near vertical sides reveal a low death rate
 Concave slopes characterize high death rates
 Bulges in the slope suggest high rates of in-migration
 Indentations in the pyramid may indicate out-migration or age-specific deaths.
Demographic Transition Model
The general demographic transition model (DTM) shows the change in population structure from LEDCs to MEDCs.

Figure 5 The Demographic Transition Model suggests that death rates fall before birth rates, and that the total population expands. However, it
is only based on three countries.

Population Dynamics
 Factors influencing the birth rate- cultural, historical, religious, social, political, and economic factors. For
example, in some cultures, especially agricultural ones, there is an advantage in having more children to
work on the land. In contrast, in cultures where women are employed in the workforce, such as in Singapore,
the birth rate may be very low.
 Factors influencing the death rate- include the age-structure of the population, availability of clean water,
sanitation, adequate housing, reliable food supply, prevalence of disease, provision of healthcare facilities,
type of occupation, natural hazards, civil conflict and war, and chance factors. Social and economic factors
have a major influence on death rates – poor people are far more vulnerable to the risk of early death, due
to a combination of poor living conditions, poor diet, lack of access to clean water, and sanitation.

National & International Development Policies

The most famous anti-natalist policy is China’s one-child policy.
 It was introduced in 1979 and limited most Chinese families to one child.
 It is thought that China’s population would now be 400 million people larger if the one-child policy did not
exist.
 The prospect of an aging society in which one worker is left to support two parents and four grandparents
led China to relax the one-child policy.
 In 2015, amid fears that the size of the working population was set to decline, the Chinese government
changed the policy to allow couples to have two children.

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Singapore is an example of a country that had an anti-natalist policy and changed to a pro-natalist policy.
 It changed because its fertility rate had dropped to below 1.25 and the workforce was getting smaller.
 The government offered incentives to families to have three or more children if they could afford them.
Singapore’s fertility rate has remained low despite the incentives.
 Women continue to play an active role in the workforce and are choosing jobs rather than having children.
International Policies that Affect Population Growth
 In 2000 the United Nations announced the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) whose aim was to
address issues of poverty and inequality.
 In 2015 the MDGs were replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Goal 3 aims to ensure
healthy lives and promote wellbeing for the whole population at all ages.
 One of its targets is improving reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health.

Exam Tips

 Birth rates and death rates are

expressed in rates per thousand (‰).
 Many MEDCs have higher death rates
than LEDCs because they have aging
populations (i.e. a higher proportion of
elderly people).
 Natural increase is given as a
percentage (%) although birth rates
and death rates are expressed in rates
per thousand (‰).

Figure 6 Range of UN population predictions 1950–2050.

Let’s Revise

 Demographic Transition Model – a model that describes how countries change from having high
birth and death rates to eventually having low birth and death rates (although in the most
developed countries death rates may rise in the final stages, due to an aging population).
 Population Policies – the strategies introduced by governments to try to increase/ decrease
population size in a country.

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 8.2 Resource Use in Society
Renewable Natural Capital
 Natural Capital is the total quantity of natural resources. Some natural capital is non-renewable, for example
fossil fuels, soils, and minerals. These can only be replaced or renewed over a very long timescale and
millions of years in the case of fossil fuels.
 Although a resource may be harvested in a sustainable way, i.e. the amount harvested is less than the
annual recharge; the way in which it is extracted, transported and processed may cause environmental and
social damage, thereby making this type of harvesting of natural capital unsustainable.

Figure 7 Environmental and social impacts in the forestry sector.

Sustainable & Unsustainable Use of Natural Capital

 Sustainability is living within the means of nature (i.e. on the ‘interest’ or sustainable income generated by
natural capital) and ensuring resources are not degraded (i.e. natural capital is not depleted and/or polluted)
so that future generations can continue to use the resource.
 An example of irresponsible use of a
resource concerns groundwater.
Pollutants from agricultural products and
run-off from storage tanks, landfills, and
septic tanks are reducing the water
quality. Unsustainable extraction from
groundwater sources (aquifers) means
that water tables are lowered, which can
lead to the intrusion of saltwater in
coastal areas and further contamination
Figure 8 Ways of assessing the value of natural capital. of the supply (e.g. the Gaza Strip).
 Water shortages can lead to
tensions and conflict over the limited resource (e.g. the Israeli Palestinian Conflict).
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Dynamic Nature and Concept of a Resource
The value of natural capital changes over time. Resources change in value over time as new technology makes them
more or less useful and therefore more or less valuable. In the Middle Ages oil was used to seal wounds, but in the
20th century it became the world’s leading fuel.

8.3 Solid Domestic Waste

Types of Solid Domestic Waste

There are many types of solid domestic waste. In an MEDC solid domestic waste
usually consists of the following:

 Organic waste from kitchen or garden, including waste wood

 (20–50%)
 Paper/packaging/cardboard (20–30%)
 Glass (5–10%)
 Metal (less than 10%)
 Plastics (5–15%)
 Textiles (less than 5%)
 Electrical appliances, e.g. computers/fridges etc. (less than 5%).
With increasing wealth there is:
 A decrease in organic waste/biomass waste
 An increase in paper and cardboard
 An increase in plastic waste
 An increase in metal and glass waste.

Let’s Revise

 Solid domestic waste – household waste/garbage—it does

not include faecal waste.
 Landfill – the disposal of waste onto or into the land.
 Incineration – the burning of waste.
 Composting – the breakdown/ natural decay of organic
Figure 9 Typical composition of waste material and its use as a fertilizer in soil.
associated with LEDCs, NICs and MEDCs.

Nonbiodegradable Pollution
Plastic Batteries Electronic Waste
 4.8 and 12.7 million tons of  The increasing global demand for  In 2012 China generated over
plastic enter the oceans each batteries is because of increasing 11 million tonnes of e-waste,
year. Much of it was consumer culture and the demand followed by the USA with
concentrated in the Great for mobile phones and laptops. around 10 million tonnes.
Pacific Garbage Patch, a  Each year billions of batteries,  Guiyu in China has been
region containing as much as containing toxic or corrosive described as the e-waste
100. materials, are disposed of. capital of the world.

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  It can take centuries for  Production, transport and  The industry is worth $75
plastic to decompose. distribution of batteries use fossil million to the town each
 Turtles, seals, and birds fuels, thereby contributing to global year, but Guiyu’s population
inadvertently eat it, and not warming. has high rates of lead
just in the Pacific.  Potential risks are associated with poisoning, cancer-causing
 A Dutch study of 560 fulmars emissions of chemicals into aquatic dioxins, and miscarriages. In
(seabirds) picked up dead in ecosystems. Disposal of batteries into 2018 China banned the
countries around the North landfill may release toxic substances import of e-waste.
Sea found that 95% had into groundwater.
plastic in their stomachs.

Disposal Options for SDW

 Recycling- Recycling is the processing of household and industrial waste so that it can be used again.
 Composting- Composting is the decomposition of biodegradable material and its use as a fertilizer in soil.
 Landfill- Landfill is the dumping of material in a hole in the ground or on the ground.
 Incineration- Incineration is the burning of household and industrial waste so that it is reduced in volume.
 Reduction- Reduction of waste means using fewer resources to meet the needs of the population.

Strategies for Managing SDW

 Altering human activity- includes reduction of consumption and composting of food waste.
 Controlling release of pollutant- governments create legislation to encourage recycling and reuse initiatives
and impose tax for SDW collection, impose taxes on disposable items.
 Reclaiming landfills, use of SDW for trash-to-energy programmes, implementing initiatives to remove plastics
from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (clean-up and restoration).

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch is an area of

marine debris that shifts its exact position every
year. It remains within the North Pacific Gyre as
ocean currents confine it.
Estimates of its size vary from 7,00,000 km2-
1,50,00,000 km2 – between 0.41% and 8.1% of
the size of the Pacific Ocean. Plastics never
biodegrade. They do not break down into
natural substances. Instead they go through a
photodegradation process, splitting into smaller
and smaller particles that are still plastic.

Problems caused by plastic:

 Plastic fouls beaches throughout the world
and reduces potential income from tourism and
recreation.
Figure 10 The Great Pacific Garbage Patch.

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 Plastic entangles marine animals and drowns them, strangles them, and makes them immobile.
 Plastic garbage when washed ashore destroys habitats.
 Plastic gets inside ships propellers and keels making ship maintenance more expensive.
 Plastic does not degrade; it also makes an ideal medium for the transfer of invasive species.

Figure 11 A seal getting trapped in plastic debris.

Figure 12 Marine animals getting stuck in plastic nets, and
possibly dying because of immobility.

Exam Tips

You should be able to explain the

dynamic nature of the concept of
natural capital.

You should be able to compare and

contrast pollution management
strategies for SDW, and evaluate
them by considering recycling,
incineration, composting, and
landfills.
You should be able to evaluate SDW
Figure 13 Direct Harm to Species- Of the 1.5 million Laysan albatrosses that
disposal options. inhabit Midway Atoll, nearly all are likely to have plastic in
their gastrointestinal tract. Fish and whales may also mistake the plastic as a
food source.

Indirect Harm via the Food Chain- On the microscopic level, debris can
absorb organic pollutants from seawater, including PCBs, DDT and PAHs.
Aside from toxic effects, some of these are mistaken by the endocrine
system as estradiol, disrupting hormone levels in affected animals. These
toxin-containing plastic pieces are also eaten by jellyfish, which are then
eaten by fish and then by humans.

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 8.4 Carrying Capacity & Ecological Footprints
Carrying Capacity
Carrying capacity is the maximum number of a species or “load” that can be sustainably supported by a given
environment. Although it is possible to estimate the carrying capacity of an environment for a given species, based
on its size and the food and water supply it contains, it is difficult to apply to human populations for many reasons.

Figure 14 Population growth and carrying capacity.

Optimum-, Over- and Under-Population

 Optimum population is the number of people who, when using all the available resources, will produce the
highest per capita economic return. It is the point at which the population has the highest standard of living
and quality of life.
 Over-population occurs when there are too many people relative to the resources and technology locally
available to attain the optimum standard of living. They suffer from natural disasters such as drought and
famine and are characterized by low incomes, poverty, poor living conditions, and a high level of emigration.
 Under-population occurs when there are far more resources in an area (e.g. food production, energy and
minerals) than can be used by the people living there in order to reach the optimum population.

Population Growth and Food Resources

Thomas Malthus’s Essays on the Principle of Population Growth
He believed that there was finite optimum population size in relation to food supply and that any increase in
population beyond this point would lead to a decline in the standard of living and would lead to war, famine, and
disease. His theory was based on two principles:
 In the absence of checks, population would grow at a geometric or exponential rate and could double every
25 years.
 Food supplies at best increase at an arithmetic rate.

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 These principles state potential and not the actual
growth of population and food production. Thus,
the limit of food production creates a block or
ceiling to the population growth in a given country.

Changing Carrying Capacities

Human carrying capacity of the environment is
determined by:
 Rate of energy and material consumption
 Level of pollution
 Interference with environmental life-
support systems.

Ecological Footprints
The ecological footprint of a population is the area
Figure 15 The Malthus’s views on population growth and growth of food
resources. of land that would be required to provide all of the
population’s resources and assimilate all of its
wastes. It refers to the area required to sustainably
support a given population rather
than the population that a given
area can sustainably support. It is
measured in global hectares (gha).

The two broad categories that

contribute to a person’s or a
nation’s ecological footprint are:
 Land required to provide
necessary resources, e.g. food,
agriculture, housing, urbanization,
industry, water supply
 Land required for
assimilation of wastes, e.g. vegetation that
Figure 16 The world's ecological footprint 1961- 2010.
provides a sink for carbon waste and areas
of landfill.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Ecological Footprint as a Model

Advantages Disadvantages
 They are a useful snapshot of the sustainability  Ecological footprints do not include all
of a population’s lifestyle. information on the environmental impacts of
 They provide a means for individuals or human activities.
governments to measure their impact and to  They are only a model so they are a
identify potential changes in lifestyle. simplification and lack precision.
 They are a symbol for raising awareness of  They use approximation of actual figures which
environmental issues. cannot be accurately calculated.

Ecological Footprint in LEDCs & MEDCs

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 LEDCs MEDCs
 LEDCs tend to have smaller ecological footprints  In MEDCs, people have more disposable income,
because of their much smaller rates of resource leading to greater demand for and consumption of
consumption. energy resources.
 People in LEDCs have less to spend on consumption  The resource use of MEDCs is often wasteful and
and the informal economy in LEDCs is responsible MEDCs produce far more waste and pollution.
for recycling many resources.
 However, as LEDCs develop, the size of their
ecological footprint increases.

Unsustainable Footprints
 The demand for consumer
goods has increased
dramatically since the 1960s,
putting the world’s resources
under great pressure.
 The world is reaching its
carrying capacity.
 Many have argued that the
over-consumption of resources,
pollution, and degradation of
the environment will lead to a
decline in the population from
around 2040.
Figure 17 Some of the factors used to calculate a full ecological footprint.

 Limits to Growth model has a pessimistic view of population and resources. It predicts that the human
population would outstrip the ability of the Earth to provide sufficient resources for the population.
 However, many people believe that human carrying capacity can be increased through technological
developments. They argue that the Earth can hold more people if we learn to use energy and resources more
efficiently. Technological improvements include irrigation and fertilizers. Crops could be grown in nutrient-
enriched water. This is known as hydroponics. High-yielding varieties (HYVs) of plants could be used.

Exam Tips

The world’s biocapacity may increase as more land comes into production and yields per
hectare increase.

Standard of living is the result of the interaction between physical and human resources
and can be expressed as:
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 × 𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝐿𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

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