A SHORT GUIDE TO
climate science
This is a short summary of a detailed discussion
of climate change science.
For more information and to view the full report,
visit [Link]/policy/climate-change
1. Is the climate warming? 2. How do scientists know that recent
Yes. Earth’s average surface air temperature has climate change is largely caused by
increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1900, with over human activities?
half of the increase occurring since the mid-1970s.
uman activity leads to emissions of greenhouse
H
A wide range of other observations (such as reduced
gases (causing warming), and of other pollutants that
Arctic sea ice extent and increased ocean heat content)
produce small particles in the atmosphere (which can
and indications from the natural world (such as poleward
have both cooling and warming effects). The dominant
shifts of temperature-sensitive species of fish, mammals,
influence of human activities on recent climate change
insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence
is clear from an understanding of the basic physics
of planetary-scale warming.
of the greenhouse effect and from comparing the
detailed patterns of recent climate change with those
expected from different human and natural influences.
Only when human influences on the composition of
the atmosphere are incorporated can models
reproduce observed changes in climate.
3. CO2 is already in the atmosphere
naturally, so what are emissions from
human activity significant?
Human activities have significantly disturbed
the natural carbon cycle by extracting long-buried
fossil fuels and burning them for energy, thus releasing
CO2 to the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 has
increased by 40% since the Industrial Revolution.
4. What role has the sun played in 5. What
do changes in the vertical
climate change in recent decades? structure of the atmospheric
The Sun provides the primary source of energy temperature — from the surface
driving Earth’s climate system, but its variations have up to the stratosphere — tell us about
played very little role in the climate changes observed the causes of recent climate change?
in recent decades. Direct satellite measurements
The observed warming in the lower atmosphere and
since the late 1970s show no net increase in the
cooling in the upper atmosphere provide us with key
Sun’s output, while at the same time global surface
insights into the underlying causes of climate change
temperatures have increased.
and reveal that natural factors alone cannot explain the
observed changes.
6. Climate is always changing. Why is
climate change of concern now?
All major climate changes, including natural
ones, are disruptive. Past climate changes led to
extinction of many species, population migrations,
and pronounced changes in the land surface and
ocean circulation. The speed of the current climate
change is faster than most of the past events, making
it more difficult for human societies and the natural
world to adapt.
7. Is the current level of atmospheric 8. Is there a point at which adding more
CO2 concentration unprecedented in CO2 will not cause further warming?
Earth’s history? No. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will cause
The present level of atmospheric CO2 concentration is surface temperatures to continue to increase. As
almost certainly unprecedented in the past million years, the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase,
during which time modern humans evolved and societies the addition of extra CO2 becomes progressively
developed. The atmospheric CO2 concentration was less effective at trapping Earth’s energy, but surface
however higher in Earth’s more distant past (many temperature will still rise.
millions of years ago), at which time palaeoclimatic
and geological data indicate that temperatures and
sea levels were also higher than they are today.
9. Does the rate of warming vary from 10. Did the slowdown of warming
one decade to another? during the 2000s to early 2010s
Yes. The observed warming rate has varied from year mean that climate change is no
to year, decade to decade, and place to place, as longer happening?
is expected from our understanding of the climate
No. After the very warm year 1998 that followed the
system. These shorter-term variations are mostly due to
strong 1997-98 El Niño, the increase in average surface
natural causes, and do not contradict our fundamental
temperature slowed relative to the previous decade of
understanding that the long-term warming trend
rapid temperature increases. Despite the slower rate
is primarily due to human-induced changes in the
of warming, the 2000s were warmer than the 1990s.
atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
The limited period of slower warming ended with a
dramatic jump to warmer temperatures between 2014
and 2015, with all the years from 2015-2019 warmer
than any preceding year in the instrumental record.
A short-term slowdown in the warming of Earth’s
surface does not invalidate our understanding of
long-term changes in global temperature arising from
human-induced changes in greenhouse gases.
11. If the world is warming, why are some
winters and summers still very cold?
Global warming is a long-term trend, but that does not
mean that every year will be warmer than the previous
one. Day to day and year to year changes in weather
patterns will continue to produce some unusually cold
days and nights, and winters and summers, even as
the climate warms.
12. Why
is Arctic sea ice decreasing while 13. How does climate change affect the
Antarctic sea ice has strength and frequency of floods,
changed little? droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes?
Sea ice extent is affected by winds and ocean currents
Earth’s lower atmosphere is becoming warmer and
as well as temperature. Sea ice in the partly-enclosed moister as a result of human-caused greenhouse gas
Arctic Ocean seems to be responding directly to emissions. This gives the potential for more energy for
warming, while changes in winds and in the ocean storms and certain extreme weather events. Consistent
seem to be dominating the patterns of climate and sea with theoretical expectations, the types of events most
ice change in the ocean around Antarctica. closely related to temperature, such as heatwaves and
extremely hot days, are becoming more likely. Heavy
rainfall and snowfall events (which increase the risk of
flooding) are also generally becoming more frequent.
14. How fast is sea level rising?
Long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent
satellite data show that global sea level is rising,
with the best estimate of the rate of global-average
rise over the last decade being 3.6 mm per year
(0.14 inches per year). The rate of sea level rise has
increased since measurements using altimetry from
space were started in 1992; the dominant factor in
global-average sea level rise since 1970 is human-
caused warming. The overall observed rise since
1902 is about 16 cm (6 inches) [Figure 6].
15. What is ocean acidification and 16. How confident are scientists that
why does it matter? Earth will warm further over the
Direct observations of ocean chemistry have shown coming century?
that the chemical balance of seawater has shifted Very confident. If emissions continue on their present
to a more acidic state (lower pH). Some marine trajectory, without either technological or regulatory
organisms (such as corals and some shellfish) abatement, then warming of 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F)
have shells composed of calcium carbonate, which in addition to that which has already occurred would
dissolves more readily in acid. As the acidity of sea be expected during the 21st century.
water increases, it becomes more difficult for these
organisms to form or maintain their shells.
17. Are climate changes of a few degrees 18. What are scientists doing to
a cause for concern? address key uncertainties in our
Yes. Even though an increase of a few degrees in understanding of the climate system?
global average temperature does not sound like cience is a continual process of observation,
S
much, global average temperature during the last ice understanding, modelling, testing, and prediction.
age was only about 4 to 5 °C (7 to 9 °F) colder than The prediction of a long-term trend in global warming
now. Global warming of just a few degrees will be from increasing greenhouse gases is robust and
associated with widespread changes in regional and has been confirmed by a growing body of evidence.
local temperature and precipitation as well as with Nevertheless, understanding of certain aspects of
increases in some types of extreme weather events. climate change remains incomplete. Examples include
These and other changes (such as sea level rise and natural climate variations on decadal-to-centennial
storm surge) will have serious impacts on human timescales and regional-to-local spatial scales and
societies and the natural world. cloud responses to climate change, which are all areas
of active research.
19. Are disaster scenarios about tipping 20. If emissions of greenhouse gases
points like “turning off the Gulf were stopped, would the climate
Stream” and release of methane from return to the conditions of 200
the Arctic a cause for concern? years ago?
esults from the best available climate models do
R No. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases
not predict an abrupt change in (or collapse of) the were to suddenly stop, Earth’s surface temperature
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which would require thousands of years to cool and return
includes the Gulf Stream, in the near future. However, to the level in the pre-industrial era.
this and other potential high-risk abrupt changes,
like the release of methane and carbon dioxide
from thawing permafrost, remain active areas of
scientific research. Some abrupt changes are already
underway, such as the decrease in Arctic sea ice
extent (see Question 12), and as warming increases,
the possibility of other major abrupt changes cannot
be ruled out.
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Issued: March 2020 DES6979