Lecture Slides

Elementary Statistics
Eleventh Edition

and the Triola Statistics Series

by Mario F. Triola

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 1
 Chapter 8
Hypothesis Testing
8-1 Review and Preview
8-2 Basics of Hypothesis Testing
8-3 Testing a Claim about a Proportion
8-4 Testing a Claim About a Mean: σ Known
8-5 Testing a Claim About a Mean: σ Not Known
8-6 Testing a Claim About a Standard Deviation or
Variance

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 2
 Section 8-1
Review and Preview

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 3
 Review
In Chapters 2 and 3 we used “descriptive
statistics” when we summarized data using tools
such as graphs, and statistics such as the mean
and standard deviation. Methods of inferential
statistics use sample data to make an inference or
conclusion about a population. The two main
activities of inferential statistics are using sample
data to (1) estimate a population parameter (such
as estimating a population parameter with a
confidence interval), and (2) test a hypothesis or
claim about a population parameter. In Chapter 7
we presented methods for estimating a population
parameter with a confidence interval, and in this
chapter we present the method of hypothesis
testing.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 4
 Definitions

In statistics, a hypothesis is a claim or

statement about a property of a population.
A hypothesis test (or test of significance) is a
standard procedure for testing a claim about a
property of a population.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 5
 Main Objective

The main objective of this chapter is to

develop the ability to conduct
hypothesis tests for claims made about a
population proportion p, a population
mean μ, or a population standard
deviation σ.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 6
Examples of Hypotheses that can be Tested

• Genetics: The Genetics & IVF Institute claims

that its XSORT method allows couples to increase
the probability of having a baby girl.

• Business: A newspaper headline makes the

claim that most workers get their jobs through
networking.

• Medicine: Medical researchers claim that when

people with colds are treated with echinacea, the
treatment has no effect.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 7
Examples of Hypotheses that can be Tested

• Aircraft Safety: The Federal Aviation

Administration claims that the mean weight of an
airline passenger (including carry-on baggage) is
greater than 185 lb, which it was 20 years ago.

• Quality Control: When new equipment is used to

manufacture aircraft altimeters, the new altimeters
are better because the variation in the errors is
reduced so that the readings are more consistent.
(In many industries, the quality of goods and
services can often be improved by reducing
variation.)
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 8
 Caution

When conducting hypothesis tests as

described in this chapter and the
following chapters, instead of jumping
directly to procedures and calculations,
be sure to consider the context of the
data, the source of the data, and the
sampling method used to obtain the
sample data.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 9
 Section 8-2
Basics of Hypothesis
Testing

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 10
 Key Concept
This section presents individual components
of a hypothesis test. We should know and
understand the following:
• How to identify the null hypothesis and alternative
hypothesis from a given claim, and how to express
both in symbolic form
• How to calculate the value of the test statistic, given a
claim and sample data
• How to identify the critical value(s), given a
significance level
• How to identify the P-value, given a value of the test
statistic
• How to state the conclusion about a claim in simple
and nontechnical terms
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 11
 Part 1:

The Basics of Hypothesis Testing

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 12
 Rare Event Rule for
Inferential Statistics

If, under a given assumption, the

probability of a particular observed event
is exceptionally small, we conclude that
the assumption is probably not correct.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 13
 Components of a
Formal Hypothesis
Test

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 14
 Null Hypothesis:
H0
The null hypothesis (denoted by H0) is
a statement that the value of a
population parameter (such as
proportion, mean, or standard
deviation) is equal to some claimed
value.
We test the null hypothesis directly.
Either reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 15
 Alternative Hypothesis:
H1
The alternative hypothesis (denoted
by H1 or Ha or HA) is the statement that
the parameter has a value that
somehow differs from the null
hypothesis.
The symbolic form of the alternative
hypothesis must use one of these
symbols: ≠, <, >.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 16
 Note about Forming Your
Own Claims (Hypotheses)

If you are conducting a study and want

to use a hypothesis test to support
your claim, the claim must be worded
so that it becomes the alternative
hypothesis.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 17
 Note about Identifying
H0 and H1
Figure 8-2

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 18
 Example:
Consider the claim that the mean weight of
airline passengers (including carry-on
baggage) is at most 195 lb (the current value
used by the Federal Aviation Administration).
Follow the three-step procedure outlined in
Figure 8-2 to identify the null hypothesis and
the alternative hypothesis.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 19
 Example:

Step 1: Express the given claim in symbolic

form. The claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is expressed in symbolic
form as μ ≤ 195 lb.

Step 2: If μ ≤ 195 lb is false, then μ > 195 lb

must be true.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 20
 Example:
Step 3: Of the two symbolic expressions
μ ≤ 195 lb and μ > 195 lb, we see that
μ > 195 lb does not contain equality,
so we let the alternative hypothesis
H1 be μ > 195 lb. Also, the null
hypothesis must be a statement that
the mean equals 195 lb, so we let H0
be μ = 195 lb.
Note that the original claim that the mean is at
most 195 lb is neither the alternative hypothesis
nor the null hypothesis. (However, we would be
able to address the original claim upon
completion of a hypothesis test.)
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 21
 Test Statistic

The test statistic is a value used in making

a decision about the null hypothesis, and is
found by converting the sample statistic to
a score with the assumption that the null
hypothesis is true.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 22
 Test Statistic - Formulas
Test statistic for
proportion

Test statistic
for mean

Test statistic for

standard deviation
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 23
 Example:
Let’s again consider the claim that the XSORT
method of gender selection increases the
likelihood of having a baby girl. Preliminary
results from a test of the XSORT method of
gender selection involved 14 couples who gave
birth to 13 girls and 1 boy. Use the given claim
and the preliminary results to calculate the
value of the test statistic. Use the format of the
test statistic given above, so that a normal
distribution is used to approximate a binomial
distribution. (There are other exact methods
that do not use the normal approximation.)

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 24
 Example:
The claim that the XSORT method of gender
selection increases the likelihood of having a
baby girl results in the following null and
alternative hypotheses H0: p = 0.5 and
H1: p > 0.5. We work under the assumption that
the null hypothesis is true with p = 0.5. The
sample proportion of 13 girls in 14 births
results in . Using p = 0.5,
and n = 14, we find the value of the
test statistic as follows:

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 25
 Example:

We know from previous chapters that a z score

of 3.21 is “unusual” (because it is greater than
2). It appears that in addition to being greater
than 0.5, the sample proportion of 13/14 or
0.929 is significantly greater than 0.5. The
figure on the next slide shows that the sample
proportion of 0.929 does fall within the range of
values considered to be significant because
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 26
 Example:
they are so far above 0.5 that they are not likely
to occur by chance (assuming that the
population proportion is p = 0.5).

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 27
 Critical Region

The critical region (or rejection region) is the

set of all values of the test statistic that
cause us to reject the null hypothesis. For
example, see the red-shaded region in the
previous figure.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 28
 Significance Level

The significance level (denoted by α) is the

probability that the test statistic will fall in the
critical region when the null hypothesis is
actually true. This is the same α introduced
in Section 7-2. Common choices for α are
0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 29
 Critical Value
A critical value is any value that separates the
critical region (where we reject the null
hypothesis) from the values of the test
statistic that do not lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis. The critical values depend on the
nature of the null hypothesis, the sampling
distribution that applies, and the significance
level α. See the previous figure where the
critical value of z = 1.645 corresponds to a
significance level of α = 0.05.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 30
 P-Value
The P-value (or p-value or probability value)
is the probability of getting a value of the test
statistic that is at least as extreme as the one
representing the sample data, assuming that
the null hypothesis is true.
Critical region P-value = area to the left of
in the left tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = area to the right of
in the right tail: the test statistic
Critical region P-value = twice the area in the
in two tails: tail beyond the test statistic
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 31
 P-Value
The null hypothesis is rejected if the P-value
is very small, such as 0.05 or less.

Here is a memory tool useful for interpreting

the P-value:

If the P is low, the null must go.

If the P is high, the null will fly.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 32
 Procedure for Finding P-Values
Figure 8-5

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 33
 Caution

Don’t confuse a P-value with a proportion p.

Know this distinction:
P-value =probability of getting a test
statistic at least as extreme as
the one representing sample
data

p = population proportion

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 34
 Example
Consider the claim that with the XSORT method
of gender selection, the likelihood of having a
baby girl is different from p = 0.5, and use the
test statistic z = 3.21 found from 13 girls in 14
births. First determine whether the given
conditions result in a critical region in the right
tail, left tail, or two tails, then use Figure 8-5 to
find the P-value. Interpret the P-value.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 35
 Example
The claim that the likelihood of having a baby
girl is different from p = 0.5 can be expressed as
p ≠ 0.5 so the critical region is in two tails. Using
Figure 8-5 to find the P-value for a two-tailed
test, we see that the P-value is twice the area to
the right of the test statistic z = 3.21. We refer to
Table A-2 (or use technology) to find that the
area to the right of z = 3.21 is 0.0007. In this
case, the P-value is twice the area to the right of
the test statistic, so we have:
P-value = 2 × 0.0007 = 0.0014

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 36
 Example
The P-value is 0.0014 (or 0.0013 if greater
precision is used for the calculations). The small
P-value of 0.0014 shows that there is a very
small chance of getting the sample results that
led to a test statistic of z = 3.21. This suggests
that with the XSORT method of gender
selection, the likelihood of having a baby girl is
different from 0.5.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 37
 Types of Hypothesis Tests:
Two-tailed, Left-tailed, Right-tailed

The tails in a distribution are the extreme

regions bounded by critical values.
Determinations of P-values and critical values
are affected by whether a critical region is in
two tails, the left tail, or the right tail. It
therefore becomes important to correctly
characterize a hypothesis test as two-tailed,
left-tailed, or right-tailed.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 38
 Two-tailed Test
H 0: = α is divided equally between
the two tails of the critical
H 1: ≠ region

Means less than or greater than

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 39
 Left-tailed Test
α the left tail
H 0: =
H 1: <
Points Left

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 40
 Right-tailed Test
H 0: =
H 1: >
Points Right

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 41
 Conclusions
in Hypothesis Testing
We always test the null hypothesis.
The initial conclusion will always be
one of the following:
1. Reject the null hypothesis.
2. Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 42
 Decision Criterion

P-value method:
Using the significance level α:

If P-value ≤ α , reject H0.

If P-value > α , fail to reject H0.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 43
 Decision Criterion
Traditional method:

If the test statistic falls within the

critical region, reject H0.

If the test statistic does not fall

within the critical region, fail to
reject H0.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 44
 Decision Criterion

Another option:

Instead of using a significance

level such as 0.05, simply identify
the P-value and leave the decision
to the reader.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 45
 Decision Criterion
Confidence Intervals:

A confidence interval estimate of a

population parameter contains the
likely values of that parameter.
If a confidence interval does not
include a claimed value of a
population parameter, reject that
claim.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 46
 Wording of Final Conclusion

Figure 8-7
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 47
 Caution

Never conclude a hypothesis test with a

statement of “reject the null hypothesis”
or “fail to reject the null hypothesis.”
Always make sense of the conclusion
with a statement that uses simple
nontechnical wording that addresses the
original claim.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 48
 Accept Versus Fail to Reject

Some texts use “accept the null

hypothesis.”
We are not proving the null hypothesis.
Fail to reject says more correctly
The available evidence is not strong
enough to warrant rejection of the null
hypothesis (such as not enough
evidence to convict a suspect).

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 49
 Type I Error

A Type I error is the mistake of

rejecting the null hypothesis when it
is actually true.

The symbol α (alpha) is used to

represent the probability of a type I
error.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 50
 Type II Error

A Type II error is the mistake of failing

to reject the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.

The symbol β (beta) is used to

represent the probability of a type II
error.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 51
 Type I and Type II Errors

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 52
 Example:
Assume that we are conducting a hypothesis
test of the claim that a method of gender
selection increases the likelihood of a baby girl,
so that the probability of a baby girls is p > 0.5.
Here are the null and alternative hypotheses:
H0: p = 0.5, and H1: p > 0.5.
a) Identify a type I error.
b) Identify a type II error.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 53
 Example:
a) A type I error is the mistake of rejecting a
true null hypothesis, so this is a type I error:
Conclude that there is sufficient evidence to
support p > 0.5, when in reality p = 0.5.

b) A type II error is the mistake of failing to

reject the null hypothesis when it is false, so
this is a type II error: Fail to reject p = 0.5
(and therefore fail to support p > 0.5) when in
reality p > 0.5.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 54
 Controlling Type I and
Type II Errors
For any fixed α, an increase in the sample
size n will cause a decrease in β.

For any fixed sample size n, a decrease in

α will cause an increase in β. Conversely,
an increase in α will cause a decrease in
β.

To decrease both α and β, increase the

sample size.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 55
 Comprehensive
Hypothesis Test –
P-Value Method

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 56
 Comprehensive
Hypothesis Test –
Traditional Method

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 57
 Comprehensive
Hypothesis Test - cont
A confidence interval estimate of a population
parameter contains the likely values of that
parameter. We should therefore reject a claim
that the population parameter has a value that
is not included in the confidence interval.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 58
 Caution

In some cases, a conclusion based on a

confidence interval may be different
from a conclusion based on a
hypothesis test. See the comments in
the individual sections.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 59
 Part 2:

Beyond the Basics of

Hypothesis Testing:
The Power of a Test

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 60
 Definition

The power of a hypothesis test is the

probability (1 – β ) of rejecting a false null
hypothesis. The value of the power is
computed by using a particular significance
level α and a particular value of the
population parameter that is an alternative to
the value assumed true in the null hypothesis.
That is, the power of the hypothesis test is the
probability of supporting an alternative
hypothesis that is true.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 61
 Power and the
Design of Experiments
Just as 0.05 is a common choice for a significance
level, a power of at least 0.80 is a common
requirement for determining that a hypothesis test is
effective. (Some statisticians argue that the power
should be higher, such as 0.85 or 0.90.) When
designing an experiment, we might consider how
much of a difference between the claimed value of a
parameter and its true value is an important amount
of difference. When designing an experiment, a goal
of having a power value of at least 0.80 can often be
used to determine the minimum required sample
size.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 62
 Recap
In this section we have discussed:
❖ Null and alternative hypotheses.
❖ Test statistics.
❖ Significance levels.
❖ P-values.
❖ Decision criteria.
❖ Type I and II errors.
❖ Power of a hypothesis test.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 63
 Section 8-3
Testing a Claim About a
Proportion

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 64
 Key Concept

This section presents complete procedures

for testing a hypothesis (or claim) made about
a population proportion. This section uses
the components introduced in the previous
section for the P-value method, the traditional
method or the use of confidence intervals.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 65
 Key Concept

Two common methods for testing a claim

about a population proportion are (1) to use a
normal distribution as an approximation to the
binomial distribution, and (2) to use an exact
method based on the binomial probability
distribution. Part 1 of this section uses the
approximate method with the normal
distribution, and Part 2 of this section briefly
describes the exact method.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 66
 Part 1:

Basic Methods of Testing Claims

about a Population Proportion p

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 67
 Notation

n = number of trials
∧
p = x (sample proportion)
n
p = population proportion (used in the
null hypothesis)
q=1–p

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 68
 Requirements for Testing Claims
About a Population Proportion p
1) The sample observations are a simple
random sample.
2) The conditions for a binomial distribution
are satisfied.
3) The conditions np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5 are both
satisfied, so the binomial distribution of
sample proportions can be approximated
by a normal distribution with µ = np and
σ = npq . Note: p is the assumed
proportion not the sample proportion.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 69
 Test Statistic for Testing
a Claim About a Proportion
∧
p–p
z= pq
n
P-values: Use the standard normal
distribution (Table A-2) and refer to
Figure 8-5

Critical Values: Use the standard normal

distribution (Table A-2).
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 70
 Caution

Don’t confuse a P-value with a proportion p.

P-value =probability of getting a test

statistic at least as extreme as
the one representing sample
data

p = population proportion

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 71
 P-Value Method:

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-8.
Use the standard normal
distribution (Table A-2).

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 72
 Traditional Method

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Figure 8-9.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 73
 Confidence Interval Method

Use the same method as described

in Section 8-2 and in Table 8-2.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 74
 CAUTION
When testing claims about a population proportion,
the traditional method and the P-value method are
equivalent and will yield the same result since they
use the same standard deviation based on the claimed
proportion p. However, the confidence interval uses
an estimated standard deviation based upon the sample
∧
proportion p. Consequently, it is possible that the
traditional and P-value methods may yield a different
conclusion than the confidence interval method.

A good strategy is to use a confidence interval to

estimate a population proportion, but use the P-value
or traditional method for testing a claim about the
proportion.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 75
 Example:
The text refers to a study in which 57 out of
104 pregnant women correctly guessed the
sex of their babies. Use these sample data to
test the claim that the success rate of such
guesses is no different from the 50% success
rate expected with random chance guesses.
Use a 0.05 significance level.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 76
 Example:
Requirements are satisfied: simple random
sample; fixed number of trials (104) with two
categories (guess correctly or do not); np =
(104)(0.5) = 52 ≥ 5 and nq = (104)(0.5) = 52 ≥ 5
Step 1: original claim is that the success rate
is no different from 50%: p = 0.50
Step 2: opposite of original claim is p ≠ 0.50

Step 3: p ≠ 0.50 does not contain equality so

it is H1.
H0: p = 0.50 null hypothesis and original claim
H1: p ≠ 0.50 alternative hypothesis
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 77
 Example:
Step 4: significance level is α = 0.50
Step 5: sample involves proportion so the
relevant statistic is the sample
proportion,
Step 6: calculate z:

two-tailed test, P-value is twice the

area to the right of test statistic
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 78
 Example:
Table A-2: z = 0.98 has an area of 0.8365 to its
left, so area to the right is 1 – 0.8365 = 0.1635,
doubles yields 0.3270 (technology provides a
more accurate P-value of 0.3268
Step 7: the P-value of 0.3270 is greater than
the significance level of 0.50, so fail to
reject the null hypothesis
Here is the correct conclusion: There is not
sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the
claim that women who guess the sex of their
babies have a success rate equal to 50%.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 79
 ∧
Obtaining P
∧
p sometimes is given directly
“10% of the observed sports cars are red”
is expressed as
∧
p = 0.10
∧
p sometimes must be calculated
“96 surveyed households have cable TV
and 54 do not” is calculated using
∧ x 96
p =n =
(96+54)
= 0.64
(determining the sample proportion of households with cable TV)

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 80
 Part 2:

Exact Method for Testing Claims

about a Proportion p

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 81
 Testing Claims
We can get exact results by using the binomial
probability distribution. Binomial probabilities
are a nuisance to calculate manually, but
technology makes this approach quite simple.
Also, this exact approach does not require that
np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5 so we have a method that
applies when that requirement is not satisfied.
To test hypotheses using the exact binomial
distribution, use the binomial probability
distribution with the P-value method, use the
value of p assumed in the null hypothesis, and
find P-values as follows:

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 82
 Testing Claims
Left-tailed test:
The P-value is the probability of getting x
or fewer successes among n trials.

Right-tailed test:
The P-value is the probability of getting x
or more successes among n trials.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 83
 Testing Claims
Two-tailed test:

the P-value is twice the probability

of getting x or more successes

the P-value is twice the probability

of getting x or fewer successes

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 84
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

❖ Test statistics for claims about a proportion.
❖ P-value method.
❖ Confidence interval method.
❖ Obtaining p.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 85
 Section 8-4
Testing a Claim About a
Mean: σ Known

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 86
 Key Concept

This section presents methods for testing a

claim about a population mean, given that the
population standard deviation is a known
value. This section uses the normal
distribution with the same components of
hypothesis tests that were introduced in
Section 8-2.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 87
 Notation
n = sample size

= sample mean

= population mean of all sample

means from samples of size n

σ = known value of the population

standard deviation

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 88
Requirements for Testing Claims About
a Population Mean (with σ Known)

1) The sample is a simple random

sample.
2) The value of the population standard
deviation σ is known.
3) Either or both of these conditions is
satisfied: The population is normally
distributed or n > 30.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 89
 Test Statistic for Testing a Claim
About a Mean (with σ Known)

x – µx
z= σ
n

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 90
 Example:
People have died in boat accidents because an
obsolete estimate of the mean weight of men was
used. Using the weights of the simple random
sample of men from Data Set 1 in Appendix B, we
obtain these sample statistics: n = 40 and
= 172.55 lb. Research from several other
sources suggests that the population of weights
of men has a standard deviation given by σ = 26
lb. Use these results to test the claim that men
have a mean weight greater than 166.3 lb, which
was the weight in the National Transportation and
Safety Board’s recommendation M-04-04. Use a
0.05 significance level, and use the P-value
method outlined in Figure 8-8.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 91
 Example:
Requirements are satisfied: simple random
sample, σ is known (26 lb), sample size is 40
(n > 30)
Step 1: Express claim as μ > 166.3 lb

Step 2: alternative to claim is μ ≤ 166.3 lb

Step 3: μ > 166.3 lb does not contain equality,

it is the alternative hypothesis:
H0: μ = 166.3 lb null hypothesis
H1: μ > 166.3 lb alternative hypothesis and
original claim

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 92
 Example:
Step 4: significance level is α = 0.05
Step 5: claim is about the population mean,
so the relevant statistic is the sample
mean (172.55 lb), σ is known (26 lb),
sample size greater than 30
Step 6: calculate z

right-tailed test, so P-value is the area

is to the right of z = 1.52;
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 93
 Example:
Table A-2: area to the left of z = 1.52 is
0.9357, so the area to the right is
1 – 0.9357 = 0.0643.
The P-value is 0.0643
Step 7: The P-value of 0.0643 is greater than
the significance level of α = 0.05, we
fail to reject the null hypothesis.

0
1.52
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 94
 Example:
The P-value of 0.0643 tells us that if men have a
mean weight given by μ = 166.3 lb, there is a
good chance (0.0643) of getting a sample mean
of 172.55 lb. A sample mean such as 172.55 lb
could easily occur by chance. There is not
sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that
the population mean is greater than 166.3 lb, as
in the National Transportation and Safety
Board’s recommendation.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 95
 Example:
The traditional method: Use z = 1.645 instead of
finding the P-value. Since z = 1.52 does not fall
in the critical region, again fail to reject the null
hypothesis.

Confidence Interval method: Use a one-tailed

test with a = 0.05, so construct a 90%
confidence interval:
165.8 < μ < 179.3
The confidence interval contains 166.3 lb, we
cannot support a claim that μ is greater than
166.3. Again, fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 96
 Underlying Rationale of
Hypothesis Testing
If, under a given assumption, there is an
extremely small probability of getting sample
results at least as extreme as the results that
were obtained, we conclude that the
assumption is probably not correct.

When testing a claim, we make an

assumption (null hypothesis) of equality. We
then compare the assumption and the sample
results and we form one of the following
conclusions:
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 97
 Underlying Rationale of
Hypotheses Testing - cont
If the sample results (or more extreme results)
can easily occur when the assumption (null
hypothesis) is true, we attribute the relatively
small discrepancy between the assumption and
the sample results to chance.
If the sample results cannot easily occur when
that assumption (null hypothesis) is true, we
explain the relatively large discrepancy between
the assumption and the sample results by
concluding that the assumption is not true, so
we reject the assumption.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 98
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

❖ Requirements for testing claims about
population means, σ known.
❖ P-value method.
❖ Traditional method.
❖ Confidence interval method.
❖ Rationale for hypothesis testing.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 99
 Section 8-5
Testing a Claim About a
Mean: σ Not Known

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 100
 Key Concept

This section presents methods for testing a

claim about a population mean when we do
not know the value of σ. The methods of this
section use the Student t distribution
introduced earlier.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 101
 Notation
n = sample size

= sample mean

= population mean of all sample

means from samples of size n

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 102
 Requirements for Testing Claims
About a Population
Mean (with σ Not Known)
1) The sample is a simple random sample.
2) The value of the population standard
deviation σ is not known.
3) Either or both of these conditions is
satisfied: The population is normally
distributed or n > 30.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 103
 Test Statistic for Testing a
Claim About a Mean
(with σ Not Known)
x – µx
t= s
n
P-values and Critical Values
❖ Found in Table A-3
❖ Degrees of freedom (df) = n – 1

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 104
 Important Properties of the
Student t Distribution
1. The Student t distribution is different for different
sample sizes (see Figure 7-5 in Section 7-4).
2. The Student t distribution has the same general bell
shape as the normal distribution; its wider shape
reflects the greater variability that is expected when s is
used to estimate σ .
3. The Student t distribution has a mean of t = 0 (just as
the standard normal distribution has a mean of z = 0).
4. The standard deviation of the Student t distribution
varies with the sample size and is greater than 1 (unlike
the standard normal distribution, which has σ = 1).
5. As the sample size n gets larger, the Student t
distribution gets closer to the standard normal
distribution.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 105
 Choosing between the Normal and
Student t Distributions when Testing a
Claim about a Population Mean µ

Use the Student t distribution when σ is

not known and either or both of these
conditions is satisfied:
The population is normally distributed or
n > 30.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 106
 Example:
People have died in boat accidents because an
obsolete estimate of the mean weight of men was
used. Using the weights of the simple random
sample of men from Data Set 1 in Appendix B, we
obtain these sample statistics: n = 40 and =
172.55 lb, and s = 26.33 lb. Do not assume that the
value of σ is known. Use these results to test the
claim that men have a mean weight greater than
166.3 lb, which was the weight in the National
Transportation and Safety Board’s
recommendation M-04-04. Use a 0.05 significance
level, and the traditional method outlined in Figure
8-9.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 107
 Example:
Requirements are satisfied: simple random
sample, population standard deviation is not
known, sample size is 40 (n > 30)
Step 1: Express claim as μ > 166.3 lb

Step 2: alternative to claim is μ ≤ 166.3 lb

Step 3: μ > 166.3 lb does not contain equality,

it is the alternative hypothesis:
H0: μ = 166.3 lb null hypothesis
H1: μ > 166.3 lb alternative hypothesis and
original claim

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 108
 Example:
Step 4: significance level is α = 0.05
Step 5: claim is about the population mean,
so the relevant statistic is the sample
mean, 172.55 lb

Step 6: calculate t

df = n – 1 = 39, area of 0.05, one-tail

yields t = 1.685;
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 109
 Example:
Step 7: t = 1.501 does not fall in the critical
region bounded by t = 1.685, we fail
to reject the null hypothesis.

1.52
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 110
 Example:
Because we fail to reject the null hypothesis, we
conclude that there is not sufficient evidence to
support a conclusion that the population mean
is greater than 166.3 lb, as in the National
Transportation and Safety Board’s
recommendation.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 111
 Normal Distribution Versus
Student t Distribution
The critical value in the preceding example
was t = 1.782, but if the normal distribution
were being used, the critical value would have
been z = 1.645.

The Student t critical value is larger (farther to

the right), showing that with the Student t
distribution, the sample evidence must be
more extreme before we can consider it to be
significant.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 112
 P-Value Method

❖ Use software or a TI-83/84 Plus

calculator.
❖ If technology is not available, use Table
A-3 to identify a range of P-values.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 113
 Example: Assuming that neither software nor
a TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table
A-3 to find a range of values for the P-value
corresponding to the given results.

a) In a left-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size

is n = 12, and the test statistic is t = –2.007.
b) In a right-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size
is n = 12, and the test statistic is t = 1.222.
c) In a two-tailed hypothesis test, the sample size
is n = 12, and the test statistic is t = –3.456.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 114
 Example: Assuming that neither software nor
a TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table
A-3 to find a range of values for the P-value
corresponding to the given results.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 115
 Example: Assuming that neither software nor
a TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table
A-3 to find a range of values for the P-value
corresponding to the given results.

a) The test is a left-tailed test with test statistic

t = –2.007, so the P-value is the area to the
left of –2.007. Because of the symmetry of
the t distribution, that is the same as the
area to the right of +2.007. Any test statistic
between 2.201 and 1.796 has a right-tailed
P-value that is between 0.025 and 0.05. We
conclude that
0.025 < P-value < 0.05.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 116
 Example: Assuming that neither software nor
a TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table
A-3 to find a range of values for the P-value
corresponding to the given results.

b) The test is a right-tailed test with test

statistic t = 1.222, so the P-value is the
area to the right of 1.222. Any test
statistic less than 1.363 has a right-tailed
P-value that is greater than 0.10. We
conclude that P-value > 0.10.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 117
 Example: Assuming that neither software nor
a TI-83 Plus calculator is available, use Table
A-3 to find a range of values for the P-value
corresponding to the given results.

c) The test is a two-tailed test with test statistic

t = –3.456. The P-value is twice the area to
the right of –3.456. Any test statistic
greater than 3.106 has a two-tailed P-value
that is less than 0.01. We conclude that
P-value < 0.01.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 118
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

❖ Assumptions for testing claims about
population means, σ unknown.
❖ Student t distribution.
❖ P-value method.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 119
 Section 8-6
Testing a Claim About a
Standard Deviation or
Variance

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 120
 Key Concept

This section introduces methods for testing a

claim made about a population standard
deviation σ or population variance σ 2. The
methods of this section use the chi-square
distribution that was first introduced in Section
7-5.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 121
 Requirements for Testing
2
Claims About σ or σ

n = sample size
s = sample standard deviation
s2 = sample variance
σ = claimed value of the population standard
deviation
σ 2 = claimed value of the population variance

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 122
 Requirements for Testing
2
Claims About σ or σ

1. The sample is a simple random

sample.
2. The population has a normal
distribution. (This is a much stricter
requirement than the requirement of a
normal distribution when testing
claims about means.)

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 123
 Chi-Square Distribution

Test Statistic

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 124
 P-Values and Critical Values for
Chi-Square Distribution

Use Table A-4.

The degrees of freedom = n –1.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 125
 Caution
The χ 2 test of this section is not robust
against a departure from normality,
meaning that the test does not work
well if the population has a distribution
that is far from normal. The condition of
a normally distributed population is
therefore a much stricter requirement in
this section than it was in Sections 8-4
and 8-5.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 126
 Properties of Chi-Square
Distribution
All values of χ 2 are nonnegative, and the
distribution is not symmetric
(see Figure 8-13, following).
There is a different distribution for each
number of degrees of freedom
(see Figure 8-14, following).
The critical values are found in Table A-4
using n – 1 degrees of freedom.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 127
 Properties of Chi-Square
Distribution - cont
Properties of the Chi-Square Distribution
Chi-Square Distribution for 10 and 20 df

Different distribution for

each number of df.
Figure 8-13 Figure 8-14
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 128
 Table A-4
Table A-4 is based on cumulative areas from
the right (unlike the entries in Table A-2,
which are cumulative areas from the left).
Critical values are found in Table A-4 by first
locating the row corresponding to the
appropriate number of degrees of freedom
(where df = n –1). Next, the significance
level α is used to determine the correct
column. The following examples are based
on a significance level of α = 0.05 but any
other significance level can be used in a
similar manner.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 129
 Table A-4
Right-tailed test:
Because the area to the right of the
critical value is 0.05, locate 0.05 at the
top of Table A-4.

Left-tailed test:
With a left-tailed area of 0.05, the area to
the right of the critical value is 0.95, so
locate 0.95 at the top of Table A-4.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 130
 Table A-4
Two-tailed test:
Unlike the normal and Student t
distributions, the critical values in this χ2
test will be two different positive values
(instead of something like ±1.96 ). Divide
a significance level of 0.05 between the
left and right tails, so the areas to the
right of the two critical values are 0.975
and 0.025, respectively. Locate 0.975 and
0.025 at the top of Table A-4

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 131
 Example:
A common goal in business and industry is to
improve the quality of goods or services by
reducing variation. Quality control engineers
want to ensure that a product has an
acceptable mean, but they also want to
produce items of consistent quality so that
there will be few defects. If weights of coins
have a specified mean but too much variation,
some will have weights that are too low or too
high, so that vending machines will not work
correctly (unlike the stellar performance that
they now provide).
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 132
 Example:
Consider the simple random sample of the 37
weights of post-1983 pennies listed in Data
Set 20 in Appendix B. Those 37 weights have
a mean of 2.49910 g and a standard deviation
of 0.01648 g. U.S. Mint specifications require
that pennies be manufactured so that the
mean weight is 2.500 g. A hypothesis test will
verify that the sample appears to come from a
population with a mean of 2.500 g as required,
but use a 0.05 significance level to test the
claim that the population of weights has a
standard deviation less than the specification
of 0.0230 g.
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 133
 Example:
Requirements are satisfied: simple random
sample; and STATDISK generated the
histogram and quantile plot - sample appears
to come from a population having a normal
distribution.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 134
 Example:
Step 1: Express claim as σ < 0.0230 g

Step 2: If σ < 0.0230 g is false, then σ ≥ 0.0230 g

Step 3: σ < 0.0230 g does not contain equality

so it is the alternative hypothesis; null
hypothesis is σ = 0.0230 g

H0: σ = 0.0230 g
H1: σ < 0.0230 g
Step 4: significance level is α = 0.05

Step 5: Claim is about σ so use chi-square

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 135
 Example:
Step 6: The test statistic is

The critical value from Table A-4 corresponds

to 36 degrees of freedom and an “area to the
right” of 0.95 (based on the significance level
of 0.05 for a left-tailed test). Table A-4 does not
include 36 degrees of freedom, but Table A-4
shows that the critical value is between 18.493
and 26.509. (Using technology, the critical
value is 23.269.)
Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 136
 Example:

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 137
 Example:
Step 7: Because the test statistic is in the
critical region, reject the null
hypothesis.

There is sufficient evidence to support the

claim that the standard deviation of weights is
less than 0.0230 g. It appears that the
variation is less than 0.0230 g as specified, so
the manufacturing process is acceptable.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 138
 Recap

In this section we have discussed:

❖ Tests for claims about standard deviation
and variance.
❖ Test statistic.
❖ Chi-square distribution.
❖ Critical values.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8.1 - 139