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Project Duration and Probability Analysis

The critical path for the project is activities 1-2-6-7, which has an expected duration of 21 weeks. The standard deviation is calculated to be 2.45 weeks. There is a 5.16% probability of completing the project in 17 weeks, 65.91% probability in 22 weeks, and a 90% probability would require 24.16 weeks. The document concludes that with a cost of $5000 and duration of 25.16 weeks required for a 90% probability of completion, the project would result in a loss for the company.

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Abdul Razzak
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87 views3 pages

Project Duration and Probability Analysis

The critical path for the project is activities 1-2-6-7, which has an expected duration of 21 weeks. The standard deviation is calculated to be 2.45 weeks. There is a 5.16% probability of completing the project in 17 weeks, 65.91% probability in 22 weeks, and a 90% probability would require 24.16 weeks. The document concludes that with a cost of $5000 and duration of 25.16 weeks required for a 90% probability of completion, the project would result in a loss for the company.

Uploaded by

Abdul Razzak
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Problem: - 15.

Activity Expected Time Variance


1-2 10 1
1-3 10 0
1-4 5 1
2-6 7 4
3-6 5 1
3-7 7 1
3-5 2 0
4-5 5 1
5-7 8 4
6-7 4 1

7
2 2
10
4
10 7
1 3 2
2
5
5 2 8
4
5

The Critical Path = 1 2 6 7


= 10+7+4
= 21 weeks

Finding Variables SD = √ δ 21−2 +δ 22−5+ δ 26 −7

=√ 1+4 +1
=2.45
Finding Probability,
Duration Expected Time Calculation Z Probability
17 21 Z=(17-21)/2.45 -1.63 5.16%
18 21 Z=(18-21)/2.45 -1.22 11.12%
22 21 Z=(22-21)/2.45 0.41 65.91%
24 21 Z=(24-21)/2.45 1.22 88.88%

Finding desired duration for probability 90%


D= µ+𝜹*(Z value)
=21+(2.45*1.29)
=24.16 weeks
As the probability of completing the project within 17 days is 5.16% and as 22 weeks
the probability is 65.91%. In fact, the company shouldn’t take the project. The company
can provide 90% surety of completion on 25.16 weeks. For this company have to pay
$5000 and it will be lose for the company.

Problem-21:
Solution :
(a)
Activity ES LS
A 0 0
B 0 9
C 0 4
D 2 2
E 2 8
F 3 7
G 3 9
H 5 12
I 5 5
J 13 14
L 13 13

(b) The earliest time that the website can be completed in given below:
Activity time of (A+D+I+L)
= 2+3+8+3
=16 weeks
(c)
Activity ES LS Slack(LS-ES)
A 0 0 0
B 0 9 9
C 0 4 4
D 2 2 0
E 2 8 6
F 3 7 4
G 3 9 6
H 5 12 7
I 5 5 0
J 13 14 1
L 13 13 0

(d)From the result in we can easily get the critical activities where slack is 0.
There are A, D, I, L.
(e) Now, the critical Path is:
A D I L

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