0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views6 pages

Expected Returns and Risk Analysis

The document provides information on valuing a European call option with the following parameters: - Stock price: $49 - Strike price: $50 - Risk-free rate: 5% - Volatility: 20% - Time to expiration: 20 weeks It asks to calculate the value of this call option.

Uploaded by

VAIBHAV WADHWA
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views6 pages

Expected Returns and Risk Analysis

The document provides information on valuing a European call option with the following parameters: - Stock price: $49 - Strike price: $50 - Risk-free rate: 5% - Volatility: 20% - Time to expiration: 20 weeks It asks to calculate the value of this call option.

Uploaded by

VAIBHAV WADHWA
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

SINGLE ASSET

Suppose treasuries yield = 5%


Returns for an equity investment over a period of 1 year are as per the given table
Calculate expected return per year

Probability Return Expected Return E(R^2) {E(R^2)-[E(R)]^2} sqrt{E(R^2)-[E(R)]^2}


0.05 50% 0.025 0.0125 0.0025
0.25 30% 0.075 0.0225 0.0225 18.974% RISK
0.4 10% 0.04 0.004 0.004
0.25 -10% -0.025 0.0025 0.0025
0.05 -30% -0.015 0.0045 0.0045
10% 3.60%
Standard Deviation sqrt{E(R^2)-[E(R)]^2}
COMBINING RISKY INVESTMENTS

Expected return of investment 1= E(R1) or Mu1


Expected return of investment 2= E(R2) or Mu2

Proportion of w1 invested in investment 1 and w2=1-w1 invested in investment 2

sigma 1 and sigma 2 are std dev of the two investments


Rho is the coefficient of correlation between the two investments

Expected return of the portfolio (MUp) = w1mu1+w2mu2


Std dev of the portfolio (sigma p) = sqrt[(w1)^2*(sigma1)^2 + (w2)^2*(sigma2)^2 + 2(rho)(w1)(w2)(sigma1)(sigma2)]

QUESTION

mu1 = 10%
mu2 = 15%
sigma1 = 16%
sigma2 = 24%
rho = 20%

Calculate return and std dev of the portfolio with the following weights

w1 w2 MUp Sigmap
0 1 15% 0.0576 24%
0.2 0.8 14% 0.040346 20%
0.4 0.6 13% 0.028518 17%
0.6 0.4 12% 0.022118 15%
0.8 0.2 11% 0.021146 15%
1 0 10% 0.0256 16%
o)(w1)(w2)(sigma1)(sigma2)]
R = alpha + (beta)Rm + e
Rm = systematic risk (non-diversifiable)
e = non-systematic risk (diversifiable)
alpha = extra return on a portfolio in excess of that predicted by capm

E(Rp) = Rf + beta(Rm-Rf)
alpha = Rp-Rf-beta(Rm-Rf)

beta = rho*sigma/sigma m
rho = correlation bw return from investment and return from market portfolio
sigma = std dev of return from investment
sigma m = std dev of return from market portfolio

QUESTION
beta = 0.6
Rf = 4%
Find expected return
Rm = 20% 10% -10%

E(R) = 13.60% 7.60% -4.40%

QUESTION
beta = 0.8
Rf = 5%
Rm = 7%
Rp = 9%

alpha = 2.4%
QUESTION
Bank sold a European call option on 100000 shares for 300,000 of a non-dividend paying stock
Stock price 49
Strike price 50
Rf 5%
sigma 20%
T 20 weeks
Value of the call option?

QUESTION
1 year european call option
Spot price 50
Strike price 55
Company sells 1000000 call options at 6000000
Probability of the stock price after 1 year
25% chance of 79
60% chance of 60
15% chance of 30
Rf 5%

Valuation? How much profit can be booked?

0.25 79 19.75 60.25-strike price = 5.25


0.6 60 36
0.15 30 4.5 5.25/1+Rf = 5 million
60.25
But the company sold it for 6 million so the profit is 1 million

Scenario Analysis? In the worst case, how much will this transaction cost the company?

Scenario analysis will consider price rising to 79 with a prob of 25%


Cost to the seller = 79-strike price = 24
Present value = 24/1+Rf = 22.85714

Inworst case scenario, the transaction will cost the company 22.85-6 = 16.85714
For 1 million options, 16.85714 million

Valuing a Forward Contract

Payoff = St -K St is stock price at t


K is delivery price
Expected payoff in a risk-neutral world = Soe^rT-K
Present value of expected payoff = So-Ke^-rT
QUESTION
Price of non dividend paying stock = 30

You might also like