Software Project

Risk Management
Nopasit Chakpitak
 Information Required
for Risk Management
• Main Issues
– Input
– Calculation
– Output
 Risk

Return = R f + " # ! R p
R f = Risk Free Rate
# = Measure/Assess/Judge of Risk
R p = Risk Premium/Risk Factor
 Uncertainty
• Random or Unexpected Events
• Ignorance about the variables or inputs to
the model arising from a lack of
understanding
• Probability
 Response/Action to Risk
• Identify sources of risk in a project or organization
• Describe risks and how they impact on the organization
using some form of probability
• Analyze and Understand relative importance which could
include risk mapping
• Mitigate an control, through structuring or other changes to
operations to increase the controllable elements
• Accept or reject residual or incontrollable risk
• Ensure a ‘correct’ risk/return ratio
• Build up a database, monitor and learn for the future
 Actions to minimize Risks
• Increase the size of project
• Do nothing, see
• Collect more data
• Add a contingency to the planning
• Reduce or build in an abandonment option as a less risk
approach
• Share the risk
• Transfer risk through an insurance contract
• Eliminate risk by redesigning the plan to reduce
uncertainty
• Cancel project or financing since the potential losses are
perceived
 Methods
• Sensitivity analysis using data tables and
charts
• Scenario analysis and scenario manger
• Manual scenarios using functions
• Decision Tree
• Simulation
 Scenarios
• “Thinking the unthinkable”
– Brain Storming
– Mental Mapping
– Panels of Experts: Knowledge Management
 Basic Project Structure
• Suppliers
– Raw Material
• Lenders
• Equity
– Investment
– Return
– Cash Deficiency
• Project
– Output
• Purchasers
 Project Risks
• Process/resources
• Environment
• Industry Type
• Project Vehicle
– Business Risk & Operating Cycle
– Performance Risk Profitability
– Financial & Financial Structure
• Cash Flow
• Management
• Partners
• Legal
• Information and Communication
 Environment and Macro Factors:
STEEPV
• Social
• Technology
• Economic
• Environment
• Political
• Values
 Response to Risk
• Identify
• Describe
• Analyze
• Mitigate
• Accept
• Price
• Monitor
 Classification of Risk
• Financial/Business Risks
• Technology Risks
• Project Management Risks
• Human Related Risk
 Financial Risk
• Return
– Financial Return
– Non Financial Return
• How Large Value Added
• Expected Expenses/Costs
• Organization Changes Required
• Business Uncertainty
 Technology Risk
• How Complex in Technology and Knowledge
• Critical Aspects
• Success Measurement
• How Complex to users
• Technology Changes
• Data and Information Supports
• Non Supply or Uncertainty of Supply
 Project Risk
• Employee Commitment
• Resource Requirements
• Required Knowledge and Competency
• Further Projects or Uncertainty
 Human Related Risks
• Leave and Holidays
• Rotation
• Promotion
• Retirement
• Resign or Turn over
• Knowledge Management
– Problem Solving
– Community of Practice
– Information Technology
 Risk Estimation
• Measurement (Finance)
• Assessment
• Judgment
 Risk Assessment
• Risk Factors
• Risk Assessment Methods
• Weights/Calculation
 Risk in Software Development
Project
• Define and analyze problems
• Identify and evaluate possible solutions
• Implementation Plan of a solution
– Estimate
– Approximations
– Uncertainties
 Risk Management
• Eliminate Risk
• Minimize Risk
• Take the Right Risk
• Risk-taking Courses of Action
 Policy on Risk Control
• User value to Cost Ratio
• Future-shock-proof Organization
• Goal Oriented People
• Risk Identification
• Management by Objective
• Knowledge Management
 Risk Estimation Method
• Determining various levels of an attribute
(best, worst, planned, now)
• Finding plus and minus deviation estimates
for each figure
• Listing the factors which can contribute to
the stated variation in a particular estimate
• Simple putting a ‘?’
 Impact Estimation
• Uncertainty Specification
• Risk Specification
Software Engineering Process Risks
• Software Requirement
• Software Design
• Software Construction
• Software Testing
• Software Maintenance
• Software Configuration Management
• Software Engineering Management
• Software Engineering Tools and Methods
• Software Quality
 Knowledge Management
• Risk Factor Assessment Knowledge
• Risk Assessment Method Knowledge
• Risk Monitor Knowledge
• Risk Modelling Knowledge
• Action Knowledge
 Knowledge Management
Tutorial
Knowledge = Specialized People
CEO/CKO “High Grade Specialist and Indeed an Artist”
Synergy = Harmonization
Problem =“Teaching The Smart People How to Learn”
 Knowledge Management Focus
• Communities of Practice/Knowledge Workers
Development
• Best Practice Development
• Utilization of Information Infrastructure
Expected Outputs
• Problem Solving Capability
• Reduce Business Process Cycle Time
• Reduce Business/Technology Risk
Expected Outcomes
• Competitiveness and Learning Capability
• Management of Changes
• Innovation
 KMS Implementation
• Knowledge Audit
• Business Model/Framework Development
and Performance Measurement
• Instrumentation CommonKADS -> iKue
• IT-Based KM Development -> Knowledge
Mapping Tools (iKue, K-Map, PC-Pack) +
Collaborative Technologies (Shared Point,
LotusNote, Other Web-based applications)
 What Differences for the others
• Focus on Strategic Knowledge
• Knowledge Officer System
• Improve Communication
• “Wherever and Whenever” Attempts
 A Pilot Project
• “Belt Conveyor Operation and
Maintenance”
• CKO VS Community of Practices with
Knowledge Engineers
– Meeting/Seminar every months
– Technical Forum Discussion
– Applying the Knowledge
 KMS Conclusion
• KMS as a resulting hub of data, information and
people (knowledge) for Action
• KM Types
– Decision Support Level (Decision Making)
– Community of Practice Level(Problem Solving)
– Repository Knowledge Level (DMS,FDS,CMS,LLKB)
• Knowledge VS Information
– Believe and Commitment
– Action
– Social
Qualitative DSS by Socialization
• Exercise on:
– Risk Factor Assessment Knowledge
– Risk Assessment Method Knowledge
– Risk Monitor Knowledge
– Risk Modelling Knowledge
– Action Knowledge