ACTIVITY - 1
SUBMITTED TO – R L [Link]
SUBMITTED BY -- BHUMIKA CHAUDHARY
2020982012
ANALYSIS FOR US GDP DATA FROM 2014 TO 2019
1. Critically examine the GDP growth rates and performance of US economy with the help of data ?
Answer. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced in the US. This number is used to measure the
health of the economy by observing when GDP is growing or shrinking. Economists generally consider the US to be in a recession when GDP
shrinks for two consecutive quarters, though recessions are officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
This is an analysis of data from 2014 to 2019
As this data shows in 2014 the GDP of US was $17407.098 and it grew 2.5% in 2015 compared to last year . The 2.6% growth in the final three
months of the year was driven by 4.3% personal consumption expenditures growth which was in part due to lower oil prices freeing funds for
other things. Increased private inventory investment, exports, fixed investments, and non-federal government spending contributed to growth.
Federal spending declined 7.5% after gaining 9.9% in the third quarter.
2015
For the year 2015 , the US economy grew 2.4% i.e. $17730 matching the gains made in 2014 .
The US economy only grew 0.7% between October and December.
American manufacturing, which makes up 10% of the economy , was in recession. Consumer spending was negative or flat for seven
out of 12 months.
Personal savings increased to 5.4 % . When savings go up, it shows that consumers are more reluctant to spend, reflecting their
concerns about the economy’s future.
2016
The economy grew at a 1.6% for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011, after expanding 2.6 % in 2015.
Consumer spending was revised sharply higher to a 3.0 % rate of growth . It was previously reported at 2.5% rate that means private
domestic demand increased at a 3.0 % rate.
Imports increased at 8.5% rate rather than the 8.3% pace reported early whereas exports declined , leaving a trade deficit that
subtracted 1.70 % point from GDP growth as previously reported.
Inventory investment added 0.94 % points to GDP growth
Government spending increased at a 0.4% rate, rather than the previously reported 1.2% pace of growth.
2017
In 2017, the economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.6% i.e. $18144 million dollar.
A measure of domestic demand jumped at a 4.6% rate.
Both export and import growth were revised slightly lower.
Housing was a slightly bigger drag on growth.
2018
GDP increased at a 3% annualized rate.
Real investment in intellectual property was up by 10.8 % , the non residential fixed investment rose 5.4% up from 2.5% in third quarter
and there was total hike of 6.3%.
Gross domestic product expanded 2.5% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis last year and 2.9% from the prior year.
That marks a downgrade to a previous estimate of 3% and an upwardly revised 2.8% in 2017.
Trump’s longtime assertion that his policies are pushing growth into a 3%-plus range through a policy cocktail of deregulation,
lower taxes and a U.S.-focused trade strategy.
2019
The economy grew by an unrevised 2.3% in 2019, the slowest annual growth in three years and missing the Trump administration's
3% growth target for a second straight year.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate, supported by a smaller import bill, the Commerce Department
said in its second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP
Financial markets have been spooked by fears that the Corona virus, which has killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in
China, and spread to other countries, could undercut the longest U.S. economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year.
Risky assets such as stocks have been sold off in favor of safe-haven government bonds. Money markets have boosted their
bets on the prospect of more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. central bank cut rates three times last year and has
signaled its intention to keep monetary policy on hold at least through 2020.
We order countries according to their GDP per capita, United States is very well positioned in terms of the standard of living of its population
U.S. GDP growth rate for 2019 was 2.33%, a 0.85% decline from 2018.
U.S. GDP growth rate for 2018 was 3.18%, a 0.97% increase from 2017.
U.S. GDP growth rate for 2017 was 2.22%, a 0.65% increase from 2016.
U.S. GDP growth rate for 2016 was 1.57%, a 1.31% decline from 2015.
2. What are your expectations for 2020 ?
Answer –It will be the decade with the next, world-wide economic crisis. This is a crisis that many economists anticipate, a crisis
worse than the one in 2008, due to the enormous amount of virtual capital concentrated, that surpasses multiple times the
planet's GDP and makes speculators look desperately for ways to get rid of it
3. What happened in Q2 of 2020?
Answer – The real US GDP plunged with a 31.4 percent annual rate in Q2 of 2020. We all know that the second quarter was
disastrous for the US economy. The US economy has suffered the sharpest contraction since the government started keeping
records in 1947. A lot of activity in economy is picking up, but there is no visible pickup in travel, leisure and hospitality . exports
and imports fall down in US by 28.2% and 14.5%.
4. What are your conclusions?
Answer-- Well , I Concluded that this highlights the range of economic challenges that are faced by some individuals,
households, and families in the United States several years after the Great [Link] general, the majority of the population is
continuing to recover from the financial crisis and the effects it had on their personal finances and financial well-being. Most
people report that they are living comfortably or doing okay, an increasing fraction of the population expects income growth in the
coming year, and a majority of Americans feel that credit is sufficiently available to them.