Probability

MODULE - V
19 Statistics and
Probability

PROBABILITY
Notes

In our daily life, we often used phrases such as 'It may rain today', or 'India may win the
match' or ' I may be selected for this post.' These phrases involve an element of uncertainty.
How can we measure this uncertainty? A measure of this uncertainty is provided by a branch
of Mathematics, called the theory of probability. Probability Theory is designed to measure
the degree of uncertainty regarding the happening of a given event. The dictionary meaning
of probability is ' likely though not certain to occur. Thus, when a coin is tossed, a head is
likely to occur but may not occur. Similarly, when a die is thrown, it may or may not show the
number 6.
In this lesson we shall discuss some basic concepts of probability, addition theorem, dependent
and independent events, multiplication theorem, Baye's theorem, ramdom variable, its probability
distribution and binomial distribution.

OBJECTIVES
After studying this lesson, you will be able to :
 define probability of occurance of an event;
 cite through examples that probability of occurance of an event is a non-negative fraction,
not greater than one;
 use permutation and combinations in solving problems in probability;
 state and establish the addition theorems on probability and the conditions under which
each holds;
 generalize the addition theorem of probability for mutually exclusive events;
 understand multiplication law for independent and dependent events and solve problems
releated to them.
 understand conditional probability and solve problems releated to it.
 understand Baye's theorem and solve questions related to it.
 define random variable and find its probability distribution.
 understand and find, mean and variance of random variable.
 understand binomial distribution and solve questions based on it.

EXPECTED BACKGROUND KNOWLEDGE

 Knowledge of random experiments and events.
 The meaning of sample space.

MATHEMATICS 421
 Probability
MODULE - V  A standard deck of playing cards consists of 52 cards divided into 4 suits of 13 cards
Statistics and each : spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs and cards in each suit are - ace, king, queen,
Probability jack, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2. Kings, Queens and Jacks are called face cards and
the other cards are called number cards.

19.1 EVENTS AND THEIR PROBABILITY

Notes In the previous lesson, we have learnt whether an activity is a random experiment or not. The
study of probability always refers to random experiments. Hence, from now onwards, the
word experiment will be used for a random experiment only. In the preceeding lesson, we have
defined different types of events such as equally likely, mutually exclusive, exhaustive, indepen-
dent and dependent events and cited examples of the above mentioned events.
Here we are interested in the chance that a particular event will occur, when an experiment is
performed. Let us consider some examples.
What are the chances of getting a ' Head' in tossing an unbiased coin ? There are only two
equally likely outcomes, namely head and tail. In our day to day language, we say that the coin
has chance 1 in 2 of showing up a head. In technical language, we say that the probability of
1
getting a head is .
2
Similarly, in the experiment of rolling a die, there are six equally likely outcomes 1, 2,3,4,5 or 6.
The face with number '1' (say) has chance 1 in 6 of appearing on the top. Thus, we say that the
1
probability of getting 1 is .
6
In the above experiment, suppose we are interested in finding the probability of getting even
number on the top, when a die is rolled. Clearly, the possible numbers are 2, 4 and 6 and the
chance of getting an even number is 3 in 6. Thus, we say that the probability of getting an even
3 1
number is , i.e., .
6 2
The above discussion suggests the following definition of probability.
If an experiment with 'n' exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes, m outcomes
are favourable to the happening of an event A, the probability 'p' of happening of A is given by
Number of favourable outcomes m
p  PA   ....(i)
Total number of possible outcomes n

Since the number of cases favourable to the non-happening of the event A are n  m , the
probability 'q' that 'A' will not happen is given by
n m m
q  1
n n

 1 p [Using (i)]

 p  q  1.

422 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
Obviously, p as well as q are non-negative and cannot exceed unity. MODULE - V
Statistics and
i.e., 0  p 1, 0  q 1 Probability
Thus, the probability of occurrence of an event lies between 0 and 1[including 0 and 1].
Remarks

1. Probability 'p' of the happening of an event is known as the probability of success and Notes
the probability 'q' of the non-happening of the event as the probability of failure.
2. Probability of an impossible event is 0 and that of a sure event is 1
if P (A) = 1, the event A is certainly going to happen and
if P (A) = 0, the event is certainly not going to happen.
3. The number (m) of favourable outcomes to an event cannot be greater than the total
number of outcomes (n).

Let us consider some examples

Example 19.1 In a simultaneous toss of two coins, find the probability of

(i) getting 2 heads (ii) exactly 1 head

Solution : Here, the possible outcomes are
HH, HT, TH, TT.
i.e., Total number of possible outcomes = 4.
(i) Number of outcomes favourable to the event (2 heads) = 1 (i.e., HH).
1
 P ( 2 heads ) = .
4
(ii) Now the event consisting of exactly one head has two favourable cases,
2 1
namely HT and TH .  P ( exactly one head )   .
4 2
Example 19.2 In a single throw of two dice, what is the probability that the sum is 9?

Solution : The number of possible outcomes is 6 × 6 = 36. We write them as given below :
1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Now, how do we get a total of 9. We have :
3 + 6 = 9, 4 + 5 = 9, 5 + 4 = 9, 6 + 3 = 9

MATHEMATICS 423
 Probability
MODULE - V In other words, the outcomes (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4) and (6, 3) are favourable to the said event,
Statistics and i.e., the number of favourable outcomes is 4.
Probability
4 1
Hence, P (a total of 9 ) = 
36 9
Example 19.3 What is the chance that a leap year, selected at random, will contain 53
Notes
Sundays?
Solution : A leap year consists of 366 days consisting of 52 weeks and 2 extra days. These
two extra days can occur in the following possible ways.
(i ) Sunday and Monday
(ii) Monday and Tuesday
(iii) Tuesday and Wednesday
(iv) Wednesday and Thursday
(v) Thursday and Friday
(vi) Friday and Saturday
(vii) Saturday and Sunday
Out of the above seven possibilities, two outcomes,
e.g., (i) and (vii), are favourable to the event
2
 P ( 53 Sundays ) =
7

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.1

1. A die is rolled once. Find the probability of getting 3.
2. A coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting the tail ?
3. What is the probability of the die coming up with a number greater than 3 ?
4. In a simultaneous toss of two coins, find the probability of getting ' at least' one tail.
5. From a bag containing 15 red and 10 blue balls, a ball is drawn 'at random'. What is the
probability of drawing (i) a red ball ? (ii) a blue ball ?
6. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum is (i) 6 ? (ii) 8? (iii) 10?
(iv) 12?
7. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the two
faces is divisible by 3 or by 4 ?
8. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the two
faces is greater than 10 ?
9. What is the probability of getting a red card from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards ?
10. If a card is selected from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of
drawing
(i) a spade ? (ii) a king ? (iii) a king of spade ?
11. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting

424 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
(i) a sum as a prime number (ii) a doublet, i.e., the same number on both dice MODULE - V
(iii) a multiple of 2 on one die and a multiple of 3 on the other. Statistics and
12. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting Probability
(i) no head (ii) at least one head (iii) all heads

19.2. CALCULATION OF PROBABILITY USING

COMBINATORICS (PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS) Notes

In the preceding section, we calculated the probability of an event by listing down all the possible
outcomes and the outcomes favourable to the event. This is possible when the number of
outcomes is small, otherwise it becomes difficult and time consuming process. In general, we
do not require the actual listing of the outcomes, but require only the total number of possible
outcomes and the number of outcomes favourable to the event. In many cases, these can be
found by applying the knowledge of permutations and combinations, which you have already
studied.
Let us consider the following examples :
Example 19.4 A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that
two balls drawn are white and blue ?
Solution : Total number of balls = 3 + 6 + 7 = 16
Now, out of 16 balls, 2 can be drawn in 16 C2 ways.

 Exhaustive number of cases = 16 16  15

C2   120
2
Out of 6 white balls, 1 ball can be drawn in 6 C1 ways and out of 7 blue balls, one can be drawn

is 7 C1 ways. Since each of the former case is associated with each of the later case, therefore

total number of favourable cases are 6 C1 7 C1  6  7  42 .

42 7
 Required probability  
120 20
Remarks
When two or more balls are drawn from a bag containing several balls, there are two ways
in which these balls can be drawn.
(i) Without replacement : The ball first drawn is not put back in the bag, when the
second ball is drawn. The third ball is also drawn without putting back the balls drawn
earlier and so on. Obviously, the case of drawing the balls without replacement is the
same as drawing them together.
(ii) With replacement : In this case, the ball drawn is put back in the bag before drawing
the next ball. Here the number of balls in the bag remains the same, every time a ball is
drawn.
In these types of problems, unless stated otherwise, we consider the problem of without
replacement.
MATHEMATICS 425
 Probability
MODULE - V Example 19.5 Six cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the
Statistics and
probability that 3 will be red and 3 black?
Probability
Solution : Six cards can be drawn from the pack of 52 cards in 52 C6 ways.

i.e., Total number of possible outcomes = 52

C6

Notes 26
3 red cards can be drawn in C3 ways and

3 black cards can be drawn in 26 ways.

C3

 26 26
Total number of favourable cases = C3  C3

26 C 26
3 C3

13000
Hence, the required probability = 52 C
6 39151
Example 19.6 Four persons are chosen at random from a group of 3 men, 2 women and 4
10
children. Show that the chance that exactly two of them will be children is .
21
Solution : Total number of persons in the group = 3 + 2 + 4 = 9. Four persons are chosen at
random. If two of the chosen persons are children, then the remaining two can be chosen from
5 persons (3 men + 2 women).
4 3
Number of ways in which 2 children can be selected from 4, children = 4 C2  6
1 2
Number of ways in which remaining of the two persons can be selected
5 4
from 5 persons = 5 C2   10
1 2
Total number of ways in which 4 persons can be selected out of
9  8 7  6
9 persons = 9 C4   126
1 2 3 4
4 C 5 C2 6 10 10
2  
Hence, the required probability = 9C 126 21
4

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.2

1. A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 7 blue balls. What is the probability that two balls
drawn at random are both white?
2. A bag contains 5 red and 8 blue balls. What is the probability that two balls drawn are
red and blue ?
3. A bag contains 20 white and 30 black balls. Find the probability of getting 2 white balls,
when two balls are drawn at random
(a) with replacement (b) without replacement

426 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
4. Three cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that all MODULE - V
the three cards are jacks. Statistics and
5. Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Show that the chances of Probability
1
drawing both aces is .
221
6. In a group of 10 outstanding students in a school, there are 6 boys and 4 girls. Three
students are to be selected out of these at random for a debate competition. Find the Notes
probability that
(i) one is boy and two are girls. (ii) all are boys. (iii) all are girls.
7. Out of 21 tickets marked with numbers from 1 to 21, three are drawn at random. Find
the probability that the numbers on them are in A.P.
8. Two cards are drawn at random from 8 cards numbered 1 to 8. What is the probability
that the sum of the numbers is odd, if the cards are drawn together ?
9. A team of 5 players is to be selected from a group of 6 boys and 8 girls. If the selection
is made randomly, find the probability that there are 2 boys and 3 girls in the team.
10. An integer is chosen at random from the first 200 positive [Link] the probability
that the integer is divisible by 6 or 8.

19.3 EVENT RELATIONS

19.3.1 Complement of an event
Let us consider the example of throwing a fair die. The sample space of this experiment is
S ={ 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
If A be the event of getting an even number, then the sample points 2, 4 and 6 are favourable to
the event A.
The remaining sample points 1, 3 and 5 are not favourable to the event A. Therefore, these will
occur when the event A will not occur.
In an experiment, the outcomes which are not favourable to the event A are called complement
of A and defined as follows :
' The outcomes favourable to the complement of an event Aconsists of all those outcomes which are
not favourable to the event A, and are denoted by 'not' A or by A .
19.3.2 Event 'A or B'
Let us consider the example of throwing a die. A is an event of getting a multiple of 2 and B be
another event of getting a multiple of 3.
The outcomes 2, 4 and 6 are favourable to the event A and the outcomes 3 and 6 are favourable
to the event B.

Fig. 19.1

MATHEMATICS 427
 Probability
MODULE - V The happening of event A or B is A  B  { 2, 3, 4, 6 }
Statistics and Again, if A be the event of getting an even number and B is another event of getting an odd
Probability number, then A = { 2, 4, 6 }, B = { 1, 3, 5 }

Notes

Fig. 19.2
A  B  {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
Here, it may be observed that if A and B are two events, then the event ' A or B ' ( A  B ) will
consist of the outcomes which are either favourable to the event A or to the event B or to both
the events.
Thus, the event 'A or B' occurs, if either A or B or both occur.

19.3.3 Event "A and B'

Recall the example of throwing a die in which A is the event of getting a multiple of 2 and B is the
event of getting a multiple of 3. The outcomes favourable to A are 2, 4, 6 and the outcomes
favourable to B are 3 , 6.

Fig. 19.3
Here, we observe that the outcome 6 is favourable to both the events A and B.
Draw a card from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. A and B are two events defined as
A : a red card, B : a king
We know that there are 26 red cards and 4 kings in a deck of cards. Out of these 4 kings, two
are red.

Fig. 19.4

428 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

Here, we see that the two red kings are favourable to both the events. MODULE - V
Statistics and
Hence, the event ' A and B' consists of all those outcomes which are favourable to both the
Probability
events A and B. That is, the event 'A and B' occurs, when both the events A and B occur
simultaneously. Symbolically, it is denoted as A  B.

19.4 ADDITIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY

Notes
Let A be the event of getting an odd number and B be the event of getting a prime number in a
single throw of a die. What will be the probability that it is either an odd number or a prime
number ?
In a single throw of a die, the sample space would be
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
The outcomes favourable to the events A and B are
A = { 1, 3, 5 }, B = { 2, 3, 5 }

Fig. 19.5

The outcomes favourable to the event 'A or B' are

AB = {1, 2, 3, 5 }.
Thus, the probability of getting either an odd number or a prime number will be
4 2
P(A or B)  
6 3
To discover an alternate method, we can proceed as follows :
3
The outcomes favourable to the event A are 1, 3 and 5.  P ( A ) 
6
3
Similarly, P ( B ) 
6

2
The outcomes favourable to the event 'A and B' are 3 and 5.  P (A and B ) 
6

Now, 3 3 2
P (A)  P (B)  P (A and B)   
6 6 6
4 2
 = P ( A or B )
6 3
Thus, we state the following law, called additive rule, which provides a technique for finding the
probability of the union of two events, when they are not disjoint.
MATHEMATICS 429
 Probability
MODULE - V For any two events A and B of a sample space S,
Statistics and P ( A or B ) = P (A) + P (B)  P ( A and B )
Probability
or P  A  B   P ( A )  P ( B)  P ( A  B) .....(ii)
Example 19.7 A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. What is the prob
ability that it is either a spade or a king ?
Notes Solution : If a card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled deck of cards, the likelyhood of
any of the 52 cards being drawn is the same. Obviously, the sample space consists of 52
sample points.
If A and B denote the events of drawing a 'spade card' and a 'king' respectively, then the event
A consists of 13 sample points, whereas the event B consists of 4 sample points. Therefore,
13 4
P (A)  , P (B) 
52 52
The compound event  A  B  consists of only one sample point, viz.; king of spade. So,
1
P  AB 
52
Hence, the probability that the card drawn is either a spade or a king is given by
P  AB P ( A )P ( B )P ( AB )
13 4 1 16 4
    
52 52 52 52 13
Example 19.8 In an experiment with throwing 2 fair dice, consider the events
A : The sum of numbers on the faces is 8
B : Doubles are thrown.
What is the probability of getting A or B ?
Solution : In a throw of two dice, the sample space consists of 6 × 6 = 36 sample points.
The favourable outcomes to the event A ( the sum of the numbers on the faces is 8 ) are
A= { ( 2, 6 ) , ( 3, 5 ), ( 4, 4 ), ( 5, 3 ), ( 6, 2 ) }
The favourable outcomes to the event B (Double means both dice have the same number) are
B    1,1  ,  2, 2  ,  3, 3  ,  4, 4  ,  5, 5  ,  6, 6  

 A  B  { (4, 4) }.

5 6 1
Now P ( A )  , P (B)  , P A  B 
36 36 36
Thus, the probability of A or B is
5 6 1 10 5
PA  B     
36 36 36 36 18

430 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
MODULE - V
19.5 ADDITIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY FOR MUTUALLY Statistics and
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS Probability
We know that the events A and B are mutually exclusive, if and only if they have no outcomes in
common. That is, for mutually exclusive events,
P ( A and B ) = 0
Notes
Substituting this value in the additive law of probability, we get the following law :
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) .....(iii)
Example 19.9 In a single throw of two dice, find the probability of a total of 9 or 11.
Solution : Clearly, the events - a total of 9 and a total of 11 are mutually exclusive.
4
Now P ( a total of 9 ) = P [(3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)] =
36
2
P ( a total of 11 ) = P [ (5, 6), (6, 5)] =
36
4 2 1
Thus, P ( a total of 9 or 11 ) =  
36 36 6
Example 19.10 Prove that the probability of the non-occurrence of an event A is 1  P ( A).
i.e., P ( not A ) = 1  P ( A ) or, P ( A ) = 1  P ( A ).
Solution : We know that the probability of the sample space S in any experiment is 1.
Now, it is clear that if in an experiment an event A occurs, then the event  A  cannot occur
simultaneously, i.e., the two events are mutually exclusive.
Also, the sample points of the two mutually exclusive events together constitute the sample
space S. That is,

AA  S

Thus, P  A  A   P( S )

 P  A   P( A )  1 (  A and A are mutually exclusive and S is sample space)

 P  A   1  P ( A ),
which proves the result.
This is called the law of complementation.

Law of complimentation : P  A   1  P ( A )

P(A)
or P ( A ) to P ( A ) .
P(A)

MATHEMATICS 431
 Probability
MODULE - V Example 19.11 The probability of the event that it will rain is 0.3. Find the odds in favour of
Statistics and
rain and odds against rain.
Probability
Solution : Let A be the event that it will rain.  P ( A ) = .3

By law of complementation, P  A   1  .3  .7 .

Notes 0.3
Now, the odds in favour of rain are or 3 to 7 (or 3 : 7).
0.7
0.7
The odds against rain are or 7 to 3.
0.3
When either the odds in favour of A or the odds against A are given, we can obtain the probability
of that event by using the following formulae

a
If the odds in favour of A are a to b, then P (A )  a  b .

b
If the odds against A are a to b, then P (A )  a  b .

This can be proved very easily.

Suppose the odds in favour of A are a to b. Then, by the definition of odds,
P(A) a
 .
P(A) b

From the law of complimentation, P  A   1  P (A)

P (A) a
Therefore,  or b P (A)  a  a P (A)
1 P(A) b

a
or (a  b) P (A)  a or P (A)
ab
b
Similarly, we can prove that P (A) 
ab
when the odds against A are b to a.
Example 19.12 Are the following probability assignments consistent ? Justify your answer.

(a) P (A) = P ( B ) = 0.6, P ( A and B ) = 0.05

(b) P ( A) = 0.5, P ( B ) = 0.4, P ( A and B ) = 0.1
(c) P ( A ) = 0.2, P ( B ) = 0.7, P ( A and B ) = 0.4
Solution : (a) P ( A or B ) = P (A) + P ( B )  P ( A and B )
= 0.6 + 0.6  0.05 = 1.15

432 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
Since P ( A or B) > 1 is not possible, hence the given probabilities are not consistent. MODULE - V
(b) P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )  P ( A and B ) Statistics and
= 0.5 + 0.4  0.1 = 0.8 Probability
which is less than 1.
As the number of outcomes favourable to event 'A and B' should always be less than or equal
to those favourable to the event A,
Notes
Therefore, P(A and B)  P (A)
and similarly P(A and B)  P (B)
In this case, P (A and B) = 0.1, which is less than both P (A) = 0.5 and P (B) = 0.4. Hence, the
assigned probabilities are consistent.
(c) In this case, P ( A and B) = 0.4, which is more than P (A ) = 0.2.
[ P(A and B)  P (A)]
Hence, the assigned probabilities are not consistent.
Example 19.13 An urn contains 8 white balls and 2 green balls. A sample of three balls is
selected at random. What is the probability that the sample contains at least one green ball ?
Solution : Urn contains 8 white balls and 2 green balls.
 Total number of balls in the urn = 10
Three balls can be drawn in 10C3 ways = 120 ways.
Let A be the event " at least one green ball is selected".
Let us determine the number of different outcomes in A. These outcomes contain either one
green ball or two green balls.
There are 2C1 ways to select a green ball from 2 green balls and for this remaining two white
balls can be selected in 8C 2 ways.
Hence, the number of outcomes favourable to one green ball
 2C1  8C
2 = 2 × 28 = 56

Similarly, the number of outcomes favourable to two green balls

 2C2  8C1  1  8 = 8
Hence, the probability of at least one green ball is
P ( at least one green ball )
= P ( one green ball ) + P ( two green balls )
56 8 64 8
=  = =
120 120 120 15
Example 19.14 Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a bag containing 5
blue and 10 red balls. Find the probability that both the balls are either blue or red.

MATHEMATICS 433
 Probability
MODULE - V Solution : Let the event A consists of getting both blue balls and the event B is getting both red
Statistics and balls. Evidently A and B are mutually exclusive events.
Probability By fundamental principle of counting, the number of outcomes favourable to A  5  5  25.
Similarly, the number of outcomes favourable to B = 10 × 10 = 100.
Total number of possible outcomes = 15 × 15 = 225.
Notes 25 1 100 4
 P (A) =  and P (B ) =  .
225 9 225 9
Since the events A and B are mutually exclusive, therefore
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )
1 4 5
  =
9 9 9
5
Thus, P ( both blue or both red balls ) =
9

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.3

1. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of cards. Find the probability that it is a queen
or a card of heart.
2. In a single throw of two dice, find the probability of a total of 7 or 12.
3. The odds in favour of winning of Indian cricket team in 2010 world cup are 9 to 7. What
is the probability that Indian team wins ?
4. The odds against the team A winning the league match are 5 to 7. What is the probability
that the team A wins the league match.
5. Two dice are thrown. Getting two numbers whose sum is divisible by 4 or 5 is consid-
ered a success. Find the probability of success.
6. Two cards are drawn at random from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards with replace-
ment. What is the probability that both the cards are either black or red ?
7. A card is drawn at random from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability
that the card is an ace or a black card.
8. Two dice are thrown once. Find the probability of getting a multiple of 3 on the first die
or a total of 8.
9. (a) In a single throw of two dice, find the probability of a total of 5 or 7.
(b) A and B are two mutually exclusive events such that P (A ) = 0.3 and P ( B) = 0.4.
Calculate P ( A or B ).
10. A box contains 12 light bulbs of which 5 are defective. All the bulbs look alike and have
equal probability of being chosen. Three bulbs are picked up at random. What is the
probability that at least 2 are defective ?
11. Two dice are rolled once. Find the probability

434 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
(a) that the numbers on the two dice are different, MODULE - V
(b) that the total is at least 3. Statistics and
12. A couple have three children. What is the probability that among the children, there will Probability
be at least one boy or at least one girl ?
13. Find the odds in favour and against each event for the given probability
4
(a) P (A) = .7 (b) P (A) = Notes
5
14. Determine the probability of A for the given odds
(a) 7 to 2 in favour of A (b ) 10 to 7 against A.
15. If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum is
(a) greater than 4 and less than 9 ?
(b) neither 5 nor 8 ?
16. Which of the following probability assignments are inconsistent ? Give reasons.
(a) P (A) = 0.5 , P (B) = 0.3 , P (A and B ) = 0.4
(b) P (A) = P (B) = 0.4, P (A and B) = 0.2
(c) P (A) = 0.85, P (B) = 0.8, P (A and B) = 0.61
17. Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 white and 10 green balls. Find
the probability that the sample contains at least one white ball.
18. Two cards are drawn at random from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards with replacement.
What is the probability that both cards are of the same suit?
Thus, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two independent events is the product
of their separate probabilities.

19.6 MULTIPLICATION LAW OF PROBABILITY FOR INDE-

PENDENT EVENTS
Let us recall the definition of independent events.
Two events A and B are said to be independent, if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one
does not affect the probability of the occurrence (and hence non-occurrence) of the other.
Can you think of some examples of independent events ?
The event of getting 'H' on first coin and the event of getting 'T' on the second coin in a simultaneous
toss of two coins are independent events.
What about the event of getting 'H' on the first toss and event of getting 'T' on the second toss
in two successive tosses of a coin ? They are also independent events.
Let us consider the event of 'drawing an ace' and the event of 'drawing a king' in two successive
draws of a card from a well-shuffled deck of cards without replacement.
Are these independent events ?
No, these are not independent events, because we draw an ace in the first draw with probability

MATHEMATICS 435
 Probability
MODULE - V 4
Statistics and 52
. Now, we do not replace the card and draw a king from the remaining 51 cards and this
Probability
affect the probability of getting a king in the second draw, i.e., the probability of getting a king in
4
the second draw without replacement will be .
51
Notes Note : If the cards are drawn with replacement, then the two events become independent.
Is there any rule by which we can say that the events are independent ?
How to find the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two independent events?
If A and B are independent events, then

P (A and B)  P (A) . P (B)

or
P (A  B)  P (A). P (B)
Thus, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two independent events is the product
of their separate probabilities.

Note : The above law can be extended to more than two independent events, i.e.,
P(A  B  C...)  P(A)  P(B)  P(C)...
On the other hand, if the probability of the event 'A' and 'B' is equal to the product of the
probabilities of the events A and B, then we say that the events A and B are independent.

Example 19.15 A die is tossed twice. Find the probability of a number greater than 4 on
each throw.
Solution : Let us denote by A, the event 'a number greater than 4' on first throw. B be the event
'a number greater than 4' in the second throw. Clearly A and B are independent events.
In the first throw, there are two outcomes, namely, 5 and 6 favourable to the event A.
2 1
 P(A)  
6 3
1
Similarly, P (B) 
3
1 1 1
Hence, P (A and B)  P ( A ) . P ( B )  . = .
3 3 9
Example 19.16 Arun and Tarun appear for an interview for two vacancies. The probability
1 1
of Arun's selection is and that of Tarun's selection is . Find the probability that
3 5
(a) both of them will be selected. (b) none of them is selected.

436 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
(c) at least one of them is selected. (d) only one of them is selected. MODULE - V
Statistics and
1 Probability
Solution : Probability of Arun's selection  P (A) 
3
1
Probability of Tarun's selection  P (T) 
5
Notes
(a) P (both of them will be selected ) = P (A) P (T)
1 1 1
  =
3 5 15
(b) P ( none of them is selected )

 1  1 2 4 8
 PAPT   1  1    
 3  5  3 5 15

(c) P (at least one of them is selected )

 1  P ( None of them is selected )

 1  1
 1  PA PT   1 1 1 
 3  5

2 4 8 7
1   1 
3 5 15 15
(d) P ( only one of of them is selected )
 P  A  P  T   P  A  P(T)
1 4 2 1 6 2
     
3 5 3 5 15 5
Example 19.17 A problem in statistics is given to three students, whose chances of solving
1 1 1
it are , and respectively. What is the probability that problem will be solved ?
2 3 4
Solution : Let p1, p2 and p3 be the probabilities of three persons of solving the problem.
1 1 1
Here, p1  , p2  and p3  .
2 3 4
The problem will be solved, if at least one of them solves the problem.
 P ( at least one of them solves the problem )
 1  P (None of them solves the problem) .....(1)
Now, the probability that none of them solves the problem will be
P ( none of them solves the problem )   1  p1   1  p 2   1  p3 

MATHEMATICS 437
 Probability
MODULE - V 1 2 3 1
Statistics and    
2 3 4 4
Probability
Putting this value in (1), we get
1 3
P ( at least one of them solves the problem )  1  
4 4
Notes 3
Hence, the probability that the problem will be solved is .
4
Example 19.18 Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 15
red and 10 white balls. Calculate the probability that
(a) both balls are red.
(b) first ball is red and the second is white.
(c) one of them is white and the other is red.
Solution :
(a) Let A be the event that first drawn ball is red and B be the event that the second ball
drawn is red. Then as the balls drawn are with replacement,
15 3 3
therefore P (A)   , P (B) 
25 5 5
As A and B are independent events
therefore P ( both red ) = P ( A and B )
3 3 9
 P (A)  P (B)   
5 5 25
(b) Let A : First ball drawn is red.
B : Second ball drawn is white.
3 2 6
 P ( A and B )  P (A)  P (B)    .
5 5 25
(c) If WR denotes the event of getting a white ball in the first draw and a red ball in the
second draw and the event RW of getting a red ball in the first draw and a white ball in
the second draw. Then as 'RW' and WR' are mutually exclusive events, therefore
 P ( a white and a red ball )
= P ( WR or RW )
= P (WR) + P (RW)
= P (W) P (R) + P (R) P (W)
2 3 3 2
 .  .
5 5 5 5
6 6 12
=  
25 25 25

438 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
Example 19.19 A dice is thrown 3 times. Getting a number '5 or 6' is a success. Find the MODULE - V
Statistics and
probability of getting Probability
(a) 3 successes (b) exactly 2 successes (c) at most 2 successes (d) at least 2 successes.
Solution : Let S denote the success in a trial and F denote the ' not success' i.e. failure. Therefore,
2 1 1 2 Notes
P(S)   , P(F)  1  
6 3 3 3

(a) As the trials are independent, by multiplication theorem for independent events,
1 1 1 1
P ( SSS ) = P ( S ) P (S ) P ( S )    
3 3 3 27
1 1 2 2
P ( SSF ) = P ( S ) P ( S) P ( F )    
3 3 3 27

Since the two successes can occur in 3C2 ways

3 2 2
 P (exactly two successes)  C 2  
27 9
1 26
(c) P ( at most two successes)  1  P(3 successes)  1  =
27 27

(d) P ( at least two successes) = P ( exactly 2 successes) + P ( 3 successes)

2 1 7
  
9 27 27

Example 19.20 A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards so that each card is equally likely

to be selected. Which of the following events are independent ?

(i) A : the card drawn is a spade
B : the card drawn is an ace
(ii) A : the card drawn is black
B : the card drawn is a king
(iii) A : the card drawn is a king or a queen
B : the card drawn is a queen or a jack
13 1
Solution : (i) There are 13 cards of spade in a pack. P (A)  
52 4
4 1
There are four aces in the pack. P (B)  
52 13

MATHEMATICS 439
 Probability
MODULE - V A  B  { an ace of spade }
Statistics and 1
Probability  P (A  B) 
52
1 1 1
Now P (A) P ( B )   
4 13 52
Notes Since P (A  B)  P (A). P (B)
Hence, the events A and B are independent.
(ii) There are 26 black cards in a pack.
26 1
 P (A)  
52 2
4 1
There are four kings in the pack.  P (B)  
52 13
2 1
A  B = { 2 black kings }  P (A  B)  
52 26
1 1 1
Now, P( A)  P ( B)   
2 13 26
Since P (A  B)  P (A ) P ( B )
Hence, the events A and B are independent.
(iii) There are 4 kings and 4 queens in a pack of cards.
 Total number of outcomes favourable to the event A is 8.
8 2
 P (A)  
52 13
2
Similarly, P ( B)  , A  B  { 4 queens }
13
4 1
 P(A  B)  
52 13
2 2 4
 P (A )  P ( B )   
13 13 169
Here, P (A  B)  P (A ) . P ( B )
Hence, the events A and B are not independent.

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.4

1. A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same department.
1 1
The probability of husband's selection is and that of wife's selection is . What is the
7 5
probability that

440 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
(a) Only one of them will be selected ? MODULE - V
(b) Both of them will be selected ? Statistics and
(c) None of them will be selected ? Probability
(d) At least one of them will be selected ?
1
2. Probabilities of solving a specific problem independently by Raju and Soma are and
2
Notes
1
respectively. If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that
3
(a) the problem is solved.
(b) exactly one of them solves the problem.
3. A die is rolled twice. Find the probability of a number greater than 3 on each throw.
4. Sita appears in the interview for two posts A and B, selection for which are independent.
1 1
The probability of her selection for post A is and for post B is . Find the probability
5 7
that she is selected for
(a) both the posts
(b) at least one of the posts.
1 2 3
5. The probabilities of A, B and C solving a problem are , and respectively. If all the
3 7 8
three try to solve the problem simultaneously, find the probability that exactly one of them
will solve it.
6. A draws two cards with replacement from a well-shuffled deck of cards and at the same
time B throws a pair of dice. What is the probability that
(a) A gets both cards of the same suit and B gets a total of 6 ?
(b) A gets two jacks and B gets a doublet ?
7. Suppose it is 9 to 7 against a person A who is now 35 years of age living till he is 65 and
3:2 against a person B now 45 living till he is 75. Find the chance that at least one of these
persons will be alive 30 years hence.
8. A bag contains 13 balls numbered from 1 to 13. Suppose an even number is considered
a 'success'. Two balls are drawn with replacement, from the bag. Find the probability of
getting
(a) Two successes (b) exactly one success
(c) at least one success (d) no success
9. One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards so that each card is equally
likely to be selected. Which of the following events are independent ?
(a) A : The drawn card is red
B : The drawn card is a queen
(b) A : The drawn card is a heartB: The drawn card is a face card

MATHEMATICS 441
 Probability
MODULE - V 19.7 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Statistics and
Probability Suppose that a fair die is thrown and the score noted. Let A be the event, the score is 'even'.
Then
3 1
A = { 2 , 4 , 6 } ,  P (A)   .
6 2
Notes
Now suppose we are told that the score is greater than 3. With this additional information what
will be P (A ) ?
Let B be the event, 'the score is greater than 3'. Then B is {4, 5, 6 }. When we say that B has
occurred, the event 'the score is less than or equal to 3' is no longer possible. Hence the sample
space has changed from 6 to 3 points only. Out of these three points 4, 5 and 6; 4 and 6 are
even scores.
2
Thus, given that B has occurred, P (A) must be .
3
Let us denote the probability of A given that B has already occurred by P (A | B) .

FIg. 19.7
Again, consider the experiment of drawing a single card from a deck of 52 cards. We are
interested in the event A consisting of the outcome that a black ace is drawn.
Since we may assume that there are 52 equally likely possible outcomes and there are two
black aces in the deck, so we have
2
P (A)  .
52
However, suppose a card is drawn and we are informed that it is a spade. How should this
information be used to reappraise the likelihood of the event A ?
Clearly, since the event B "A spade has been drawn " has occurred, the event "not spade" is no
longer possible. Hence, the sample space has changed from 52 playing cards to 13 spade
cards. The number of black aces that can be drawn has now been reduced to 1.
Therefore, we must compute the probability of event A relative to the new sample space B.
Let us analyze the situation more carefully.
The event A is " a black ace is drawn'. We have computed the probability of the event A
knowing that B has occurred. This means that we are computing a probability relative to a new
sample space B. That is, B is treated as the universal set. We should consider only that part of
A which is included in B.

442 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
MODULE - V
Statistics and
Probability

Fig. 19.8 Notes

Hence, we consider A  B (see figure 31.8).

Thus, the probability of A. given B, is the ratio of the number of entries in A  B to the number
of entries in B. Since n ( A  B)  1 and n ( B)  13 ,
n(A  B) 1
then P(A | B)  
n(B) 13
1
Notice that nA  B  1  P(A  B) 
52
13
n ( B)  13  P ( B ) 
52
1
1 P(A  B)
P (A | B)   52 
 13 13 P(B) .
52
This leads to the definition of conditional probability as given below :
Let A an B be two events defined on a sample space S. Let P(B) > 0, then the conditional
probability of A, provided B has already occurred, is denoted by P(A|B) and mathematically
written as :
P(A  B)
P (A | B) = , P (B)  0
P(B)
P (A  B)
Similarly, P(B | A)  , P (A)  0
P(A)
The symbol P( A | B ) is usually read as "the probability of A given B".
Example 19.21 Consider all families "with two children (not twins). Assume that all the
elements of the sample space {BB, BG, GB,GG} are equally likely. (Here, for instance, BG
denotes the birth sequence "boy girls"). Let A be the event {BB} and B be the event that 'at
least one boy'. Calculate P (A | B ).
Solution : Here, A = { BB }, B = { BB, BG, GB }
1
A  B  { BB }  P (A  B) 
4
1 1 1 3
P (B)    
4 4 4 4
MATHEMATICS 443
 Probability
MODULE - V 1
Statistics and P (A  B) 1
Probability Hence, P(A | B)   4  .
P(B) 3 3
4
Example 19.22 Assume that a certain school contains equal number of female and male
Notes students. 5 % of the male population is football players. Find the probability that a randomly
selected student is a football player male.
Solution : Let M = Male
F = Football player
We wish to calculate P (M  F) . From the given data,
1
P (M)  (  School contains equal number of male and female students)
2
P ( F|M ) = 0.05
But from definition of conditional probability, we have
PM  F
PF | M 
PM

 PM  F  PM  PF | M 

1
  0.05  0.025
2
Example 19.23 If A and B are two events, such that P (A) = 0.8,
P ( B ) = 0.6, P (A  B)  0.5 , find the value of
(i) P (A  B) (ii) P ( B | A ) (iii) P ( A | B ).

Solution :(i) PA  B  PA  PB  PA  B

 0.8  0.6  0.5  0.9

P A  B 0.5 5
(ii) PB | A    
PA 0.8 8

P A  B 0.5 5
(iii) PA | B   
P B 0.6 6

Example 19.24 A coin is tossed until a head appears or until it has been tossed three times.
Given that head does not occur on the first toss, what is the probability that coin is tossed three
times ?
Solution : Here, it is given that head does not occur on the first toss. That is, we may get the
head on the second toss or on the third toss or even no head.
Let B be the event, " no heads on first toss".

444 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

Then B = {TH, TTH, TTT } MODULE - V

Statistics and
These events are mutually exclusive. Probability
P  B   P  TH   P  TTH   P  TTT  .....(1)

1
Now P  TH   ( This event has the sample space of four outcomes)
4
Notes
1
and P  TTH   P  TTT   ( This event has the sample space of eight outcomes)
8
Putting these values in (1), we get
1 1 1 4 1
PB     
4 8 8 8 2
Let A be the event "coin is tossed three times".
Then A   TTH, TTT 
 We have to find P (A | B) .
P A  B
PA | B 
P B

1
1
PA | B  4 
Here, A  B = A,  1 2
2

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.5

1. A sequence of two cards is drawn at random (without replacement) from a well-shuffled

deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that the first card is red and the second card is
black ?
2. Consider a three child family for which the sample space is
{ BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, BGG, GBG, GGB, GGG }
Let A be the event " the family has exactly 2 boys " and B be the event " the first child is
a boy". What is the probability that the family has 2 boys, given that first child is a boy ?
3. Two cards are drawn at random without replacement from a deck of 52 cards. What is
the probability that the first card is a diamond and the second card is red ?
4. If A and B are events with P (A) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.2, P (A  B)  0.1 , find the probabil-
ity of A given B. Also find P ( B|A ).
5. From a box containing 4 white balls, 3 yellow balls and 1 green ball, two balls are drawn
one at a time without replacement. Find the probability that one white and one yellow ball
is drawn.

MATHEMATICS 445
 Probability
MODULE - V 19.8 THEOREMS ON MULTIPLICATION LAW OF
Statistics and
Probability PROBABILITY AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
Theorem 1 : For two events A and B,
P  A  B   P  A  .P  B | A  ,
and P  A  B   P  B  .P  A | B  ,
Notes
where P ( B|A ) represents the conditional probability of occurrence of B, when the event A has
already occurred and P ( A|B ) is the conditional probability of happening of A, given that B has
already happened.
Proof : Let n (S) denote the total number of equally likely cases, n (A) denote the cases
favourable to the event A, n (B) denote the cases favourable to B and n (A  B) denote the
cases favourable to both A and B.
nA n  B
 PA   , P B 
n S n S

nA  B
P A  B  .....(1)
n S
For the conditional event A|B , the favourable outcomes must be one of the sample points of B,
i.e., for the event A|B, the sample space is B and out of the n (B) sample points, n (A  B)
pertain to the occurrence of the event A, Hence,
nA  B
PA | B 
nB

n B n AB
Rewriting (1), we get P AB    P(B). P(AB)
n S n B
Similarly, we can prove
P  A  B   P  A  .P  B | A 
Note : If A and B are independent events, then
P  A | B   P  A  and P  B | A   P  B 
P  A  B   P  A  .P  B 
Theorem 2 : Two events A and B of the sample space S are independent, if and only if
P  A  B   P  A  .P  B 
Proof : If A and B are independent events,
then PA | B  PA
P A  B
We know that PA | B 
P B

 PA  B  PAPB

446 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

Hence, if A and B are independent events, then the probability of 'A and B' is equal to the MODULE - V
product of the probability of A and probability of B. Statistics and
Probability
Conversely, if P  A  B   P  A  .P  B  , then
P A  B
PA | B 
P  B  gives
Notes
PAPB
PA | B  = P (A)
P B
That is, A and B are independent events.
19.9 INTRODUCTION TO BAYES’ THEOREM
In conditional probability we have learnt to find probability of an event with the condition that
some other event has already occurred. Consider an experiment of selecting one coin out of
1 2 3 1
three coins : If I with P(H) = and P(T) = , II with P(H) = and P(T) = and III
3 3 4 4
1 1
with P(H) = , P(T) = (a normal coin).
2 2
After randomly selecting one of the coins, it is tossed. We can find the probability of selecting
 1
one coin  i.e.  and can also find the probability of any outcome i.e. head or tail; given
3
the coin selected. But can we find the probability that coin selected is coin I, II or III when
it is known that the head occurred as outcome? For this we have to find the probability of
an event which occurred prior to the given event. Such probability can be obtained by using
Bayes’ theorem, named after famous mathematician, Johan Bayes Let us first learn some
basic definition before taking up Baye’s theorem
Mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
For a sample space S, the set of events E1, E2, ... En is said to mutually exclusive and
exhaustive if
(i) Ei  E j  ,  i  j  1, 2,......n i.e. none of two events can occur together..

(ii) Ei  E2  ....  En  S , all outcomes of S have been taken up in the events E1,
E2...En
(iii) P(Ei) > 0 for all i = 1, 2, ..... n

19.10 : THEOREM OF TOTAL PROBABILITY

Let E1, E2, ...., En are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events for a sample space S with
P(Ei) > 0,  i = 1, 2, ...n. Let A be any event associated with S, then
P(A) = P(E1) P(A/E1) + P(E2) P(A/E2) + ... + P(En) P(A/En)

MATHEMATICS 447
 Probability
MODULE - V n
E1 E3
Statistics and =  P( Ei ) P( A / Ei ) S
i 1
Probability
Proof : The events Ei and A are shown in the venn-diagram E4
E2
Given S = E1 E2, E3, ... En and Ei Ej  . A En

We can write U(A  En)

Notes Fig. 19.9
A = A S
= A  (E1 E2...En)
= (A  E1) (A E2) (A E3) ... (A En)
Since all Ei, are mutually exclusive, so AE1, AE2 ... will also be mutually
exclusive
 P(A) = P(AE1) + P(AE2) + P(AE3) + ... + P(AEn)
= P(E1) P(A/E1) + P(E2) P(A/E2) + ... + P(En) P(A/En)
By using the multiplication rule of probability,
n
P(A) =  P( Ei ) P( A / Ei )
i 1

19.11 : BAYE’S THEOREM

If E1, E2, ... En are non-empty mutually exclusive and exhaustive events (i.e. P(Ei) > 0  i)
of a sample space S and A be any event of non-zero probability then

P ( Ei ) P ( A / Ei )
P(Ei/A) = n
 i  1, 2,...n
 P( Ei ) P( A / Ei )
i 1

Proof : By law of total probabilities we know that

n
P(A) =  P( Ei ) P( A / Ei ) ...(i)
i 1

Also by law of multiplication of probabilities we have

P ( A  Ei ) P ( Ei ) P ( A / Ei )
P(Ei|A) = = n by using (i)
P ( A)
 P( Ei ) P( A / Ei )
i 1

This gives the proof of the Baye’s theorem let us now apply the result of Baye’s theorem
to find probabilities.

448 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

Example 19.25 Given three identical coins (in shape and size) with following specifications MODULE - V
Statistics and
1 2
Coin I : with P(H) = , P(T) = Probability
3 3
3 1
Coin II : with P(H) = P(T) =
4 4
1 1
Coin III : with P(H) = , P(T) = (normal coin). Notes
2 2
A Coin is selected at random and tossed. The out come found to be head. What is the
probability that the selected coin was coin III?
Solution : Let E1, E2, E3 be the events that coins I, II or III is selected, respectively.
1
Then P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) =
3
Also, Let A be the event ‘the coin drawn ‘has head on tossing’.
1
Then P(A/E1) =P(a head on coin I) =
3
3
P(A/E2) =P(a head on coin II) =
4
1
P(A/E3) =P(a head on coin III) =
2
Now the probability that the coin tossed is Coin III = P(E3/A)

P( E3 ) P( A / E3 )
= P( E ) P( A / E )  P( E ) P( A / E )  P( E ) P( A / E )
1 1 2 2 3 3

1 1 1
 6 6
3 2 2 
= 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 =
4  9  6 19
      
3 3 3 4 3 2 3 4 2

Example 19.26 Bag I contains 4 red and 3 black balls while another bag II contains 6
red and 5 black balls. One of the bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it.
Find the probability that the ball is drawn from Bag II, if it is known that the ball drawn is
red.
Solution : Let E1 and E2 be the events of selecting Bag I and Bag II, respectively and A
be the event of selecting a red ball.
1
Then, P(E1) = P(E2) =
2
4
Also, P(A/E1) = P(drawing a red ball from Bag I) =
7
6
P(A/E2) = P(drawing a red ball from Bag II) =
11
MATHEMATICS 449
 Probability
MODULE - V Now, By Baye’s theorem
Statistics and P(bag selected is Bag II when it is known that red ball is drawn) = P(E2/A)
Probability
1 4

P ( E2 ) P ( A / E2 ) 2 7
= 
P ( E1 ) P ( A / E1 )  P ( E2 ) P ( A / E2 ) 1  6  1  4
2 11 2 7
Notes
4
7 22
= 6 4
 43
11 7

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.6

1. Urn I contains 3 blue and 4 white balls and another Urn II contains 4 blue and 3 white
balls. One Urn was selected at random and a ball was drawn from the selected Urn.
The ball was found to be white. What is the probability that the ball was drawn from
Urn-II?
2. A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60%
of the items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the
items produced by machine A and 1% by machine B were defective. All the items are
put in one stock pile and then one item is randomly drawn from this and is found to
be defective. Find the probability that the defective item was produced by machine A?
3. By examining the chest x-ray, the probability that T.B is detected when a person is
actually suffering from it is 0.99.
The probability that the doctor, diagnoses in correctly that a person has TB, on the
basis of the x-ray is 0.001. In a certain city, 1 in 10000 persons suffer from TB. A
person selected at random is diagnosed to have TB. What is the probability that person
has actually TB?

19.12 : PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF RANDOM VARIABLE

19.12.1 Variables : In earlier section you have learnt to find probabilities of various events
with certain conditions. Let us now consider the case of tossing a coin four times. The
outcomes can be shown in a sample space as :
S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, THHT, HHTT, HTTH, TTHH, HTHT,
THTH, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
On this sample space we can talk about various number associated with each outcome.
For example, for each outcome, there is a number corresponding to number of heads we
can call this number as X.
Clearly
X(HHHH) = 4, X(HHHT) = 3, X(HHTH) = 3
X(THHH) = 3, X(HHTT) = 2, X(HTTH) = 2

450 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
X(TTHH) = 2, X(HTHT) = 2, X(THTH) = 2 MODULE - V
X(THHT) = 2, X(HTTT) = 1, X(THTT) = 1 Statistics and
Probability
X(TTHT) = 1, X(TTTH) = 1, X(TTTT) = 0
We find for each out come there corresponds values of X ranging from 0 to 4.
Such a variable X is called a random variable.
Notes
19.12.2 Definition
A random variable is a function whose domain is the sample space of a random experiment
and range is real number values.
Example 19.27 Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Write the value of the random
variable X : sum of number appearing on the upper faces of the dice.
Solution : The sample space of the experiment contains 36 elements.
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3) .......... (1, 6)
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3) ............ (2, 6)
....
....
....
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3) ............. (6, 6)}
Clearly for each pair the sum of numbers appear ranging from 2 to 12. So the random
variable x has the following values.
X(1, 1) = 2
X((1, 2), (2, 1)) = 3
X((1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1)) = 4
X((1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1) = 5
X((1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1) = 6
X((1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1), = 7
X((2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2) = 8
X((3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3) = 9
X((4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4) = 10
X((5, 6), (6, 5)) = 11
X((6, 6)) = 12

19.12.3 Probability Distribution of a Random Variable

Let us now look at the experiment of drawing two cards successively with replacement from
a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Let us concentrate on the number of aces that can be there
when two cards are successively drawn. Let it be denoted by X. Clearly X can take the
values 0, 1 or 2.

MATHEMATICS 451
 Probability
MODULE - V The sample space for the experiment is given by S = {(Ace, Ace), (Ace, Non Ace), (Non
Statistics and Ace, Ace), (Non Ace, Non Ace)}
Probability For X(Ace, Ace) = 2
X{(Ace, Non Ace) or (Non Ace, Ace)} = 1
and X{(Non Ace, Non Ace)} = 0
4 4
Notes The probability that X can take the value 2 is P(Ace, Ace) =  as probability of an
52 52
4
Ace is drawing one card is .
52
Similarly
P(X = 1) =P[(Ace, non Ace) or (Non Ace, ace)]
=P(Ace, non Ace) + P(Non Ace, Ace)
4 48 48 4 12 2 24
=    =  
52 52 52 52 169 169 169

48 48 144
and P(X = 0) =P(Non Ace, Non Ace) =  
52 52 169
The description given by the values of the random variable with the corresponding probabili-
ties is called probability distribution.
19.12.4 Definition : The probability distribution of a random variable X is the distribution
of probabilities to each value of X. A probability distribution of a random variable X is
represented as
Xi : x1 x2 x3 .... xn
P(Xi) : P1 P2 P3 .... Pn
n
where Pi  0,  Pi  1,  i  1, 2,3,...n .
i 1
The real numbers x1, x2, ... xn are the possible values of X and Pi is the probability of the
random variable Xi taking the value Xi denoted as
P(X = xi) = Pi
Thus the probability distribution of number of aces when two cards are successively drawn,
with replacement from a deck of 52 cards is given by
X : 0 1 2
144 24 1
P(xi) :
169 169 169
Note that in a probability distribution all probabilities must be between 0 and 1 and sum of
all probabilities must be 1.
144 24 1 144  24  1
Pi =    1
169 169 169 169

452 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
Example 19.28 Check whether the distribution given below is a probability distribution MODULE - V
or not Statistics and
Probability
X 2 1 0 –1 –2
P(X) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Solution : All probabilities P(X) are positive and less than 1.
Notes
Also, P(xi) = 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.2
= 1.0
Hence, the given distribution is probability distribution of a the random variable X.
Example 19.29 A random variable X has the following probability distribution :
X –1 –2 –3 –4 –5 –6
1 1 1 k
P(X) k 2k
3 4 6 4
Find (1) k (2) P(X > –4) (3) P(X < –4)
Solution : (1) The sum of probabilities in the given distribution, must be 1.
1 1 1 k
  k   2k   = 1
3 4 6 4
4  12k  3  24k  2  3k
 = 1
12
39k + 9 = 12
 39k = 3
1
 k =
13
(2) P(X > –4) = P(x = –3) + P(x = –2) + P(x = –1)
1 1 1 1 1 103
k =   
=
4 3 4 13 3 156
(3) P(X < –4) = P(x = –5) + P(x = –6)
1 k 1 1 29
=    
6 4 6 13  4 156
Example 19.30 Find the probability distribution of number of tails in the simultaneous
tosses of three coins.
Solution : The sample space for simultaneous toss of three coins is given by
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Let X be the number of tails.
Clearly X can take values, 0, 1, 2 or 3.
Now,

MATHEMATICS 453
 Probability
MODULE - V 1 1 1 1
Statistics and P(X = 0) =P(HHH) =   
2 2 2 8
Probability
P(X = 1) =P(HHT or HTH or THH)
= P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
Notes =         =   
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8 8 8
P(X = 2) =P(HTT or THT or TTH)
1 1 1 3
= P(HTT) + P(THT) + P(TTH) =   
8 8 8 8

1
and P(X = 3) = P(TTT) = .
8
Hence, the required probability distribution is
X : 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
P(X) :
8 8 8 8

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.7

1. State which of the following are not probability distribution of a random variable. Justify
your answer
(a) x 100 200 300
1 1 1
P(x)
2 4 4
(b) Y 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(y) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
(c) xi –1 –2 0 2 1
Pi 0.2 0.15 –0.5 0.45 0.7
(d) xi 2 3 4 5
Pi 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2
2. Find the probability distribution of
(a) Number of red balls when two balls drawn are one after other with replacement
from a bag containing 4 red and 3 white balls.
(b) Number of sixes when two dice are thrown simultaneously
(c) Number of doublets when two dice are thrown simultaneously
454 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

19.13 : MEAN AND VARIANCE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE MODULE - V

Statistics and
Probability
19.13.1 Mean
The mean of a random variable is denoted by  and is defined as
n
=  xi Pi , Notes
i 1
where Pi = 1, Pi > 0,  i = 1, 2, ... n.
In other words we can say that the mean of a random variable is the sum of the product of
values of the variables with corresponding probabilities. Mean of a random variable X is
also called Expectation of the random variable ‘X’, denoted by E(x)
n
So E(x) =  =  xi Pi .
i 1

19.13.2 : VARIANCE

Recall in frequently distribution we have studied that variance is a measure of dispersion or

variability in the values. The similar meaning is attached to variance of a random variable.
Definition : Let a probability distribution be given as
Xi : x1 x2 x3 ... xn

P(Xi) : P1 P2 P3 ... Pn

Let  = E(x) be the mean of x.

Then the varaiance of X, denoted by var(x) or x2 is defined as

n
2
x =Var(x) =  ( xi  )2 Pi
i 1

n n
2 2
=  ( x1 pi   pi  2 xi pi ) =  ( xi2 Pi   2 Pi  2xi pi )
i 1 i 1

n n n n n n
= xi2 pi 2
   Pi   2xi pi =  xi2 pi   2  Pi  2 xi pi
i 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 i 1

n n n n
= xi2 pi 2
  .1  2 . =  xi2 pi   2 (  =  xi2 pi and  pi  1 )
i 1 i 1 i 1 i 1

MATHEMATICS 455
 Probability
MODULE - V 2
n  n
Statistics and 
=  xi2 pi    xi pi 
Probability i 1  i 1 

We can also write

var(x) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
Notes
Example 19.31 Find the mean and variance of the following distribution

x –2 –1 0 1 2

1 2 3 1 1
P(x)
8 8 8 8 8

Solution : Given distribution is

Xi –2 –1 0 1 2

1 2 3 1 1
P(Xi)
8 8 8 8 8

2 2 1 2
XiP(Xi)   0
8 8 8 8

4   4
x2P(Xi) 0
8 8 8 8

2 2 1 2 1
Now,  = P(Xi)Xi =    0   = 
8 8 8 8 8
Var(x) = Xi2P(Xi) – [ P(Xi)Xi]2
2
4 2 1 4   1
=    0   
8 8 8 8   8
11 1 87
=  
8 64 64

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.8

1. Find mean and variance in each of the following distributions

(a) X : 1 2 3 4
P(X) : 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1

(b) yi –2 –1 0 1 2
P(yi) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.15
456 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
2. Find the mean number of heads in three tosses of a fair coin. MODULE - V
3. Let X denote the difference of two numbers obtained on throwing two fair dice. Find Statistics and
the mean and variance of X. (Take absolute value of the difference) Probability

4. Find the mean of the numbers of tails obtained when a biased coin having 25% chances
of head and 75% of tail, is tossed two times.
5. Find the mean and variance of the number of sixes when two dice are thrown. Notes

19.14 BERNOULLI TRIALS

When an experiment is repeated under similar conditions, each repeat is called a trial of the
experiment. For example, if a coin is tossed three times, we say that there are three trials
of the tossing of the coin.
A particular event may be called success of a trial. Clearly non-happening of the event may
be termed as a failure. For, example in throwing a die, if the occurrence of a number less
then 4 is named as success then the non-occurrence of a number less than 4 is named as
failure. Thus, each trial can have two outcomes namely, success or failure.
Two or more trials of a random experiment can be performed in two ways :
1. The probability of success or failure remain constant in each trial. For example tossing
1
a coin n number of times, but in each trial probability of getting head is . Such trials
2
are called independent trials.
2. The probability of success/failure varies with each trial. For example in drawing card
from a deck of cards one after the other without replacement, in such trials if success
is taken to be drawing a card of spade, the probability of success in respective trials
will change.

i.e. Trial 1st 2nd 3rd, ...

13 12 11
Probability , ...
52 51 50
The trials of first type i.e. independent trials with two out comes success or failure are
called Bernoulli trials.
Definition : Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if each trial has
exactly two outcomes and trials are finite and independent.

19.15 : BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The probability distribution of number successes in Bernoulli trials of a random experiment
may be obtained by the expansion of (q + p)n where
p = prob. of success in each trial
q = 1 – p, = prob. of failure
n = number of trials

MATHEMATICS 457
 Probability
MODULE - V Such a probability distribution is called Binomial Distribution. In other words we can
Statistics and say that in n Bernoulli trials of a random experiment, the number of successes can have
Probability the value, 0, 1, 2, 3, ....n.
So the Binomial Distribution of number of success : X, is given by
P(X = 0) = 1st term of the expansion of (q + p)n
P(X= 1) = 2nd term of the expansion of (q + p)n
Notes

P(X = r) = (r + 1)th term of expansion of (q + p)n

P(X = n) = (n + 1)th term of expansion of (q + p)n
We know that
(q + p)n = n C0 q n  nC1 q n1 p  nC2 q n  2 p 2  ...  nCr q n  r p r  ...  nCn p n
 P(x = 0) = n C0 q n

P(x = 1) = n C1 q n1 p

P(x = 2) = n C2 q n 2 p 2


n nr r
P(X = r) = Cr q p

P(X = n) = n Cn p n .
A Binomial distribution with n Bernoulli trials and probability of success in each trial as
P, is denoted by B(n, p)
Let us now understand Binomial Distribution with following examples.
Example 19.32 Write the Binomial Distribution of number of successes in 3 Bernoulli
trials.
Solution : Let p = prob. of success (S) in each trial
q = prob. of failure (F) in each trial
Clearly q= 1–p
Number of successes in three trials can take the values 0, 1, 2 or 3
The sample space for three trials .........
S = {SSS, SSF, SFS, FSS, SFF, FSF, FFS, FFF}
where S and F denote success and failure.
Now P(S = 0) = P(FFF) = P(F) P(F) P(F) = q.q.q = q3
P(S = 1) = P(SFF, FSF or FFS) = P(SFF) + P(FSF) + P(FFS)
= P(S).P(F) P(F) + P(F).P(S).P(F) + P(F) P(F) P(S)
= p.q.q. + q.p.q + q.q.p = 3 q2p
458 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
P(S = 2) = P(SSF or SFS or FSS) MODULE - V
= P(SSF) + P(SFS) + P(FSS) Statistics and
= P(S).P(S).P(F) + P(S) P(F)P(S) + P(F) P(S) P(S) Probability
= p.p.q + p.q.p + q.p.p = 3qp2
P(S = 3) = P(SSS) = P(S) . P(S) . P(S) = p.p.p = p3
Hence the prob. distribution of number of successes is Notes
Xi : 0 1 2 3
P(Xi) : q 3 2
3q p 3qp 2 p3
Also (q + p)3 = q3 + 3q2p + 3p2q + p3
Note that probabilities of 0, 1, 2 or 3 successes are respectively the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and
4th term in the expansion of (q + p)3.
Example 19.33 A die is thrown 5 times. If getting ‘an even number’ is a success, what
is the probability of.
(a) 5 successes
(b) at least 4 successes
(c) at most 3 successes?
Solution : Given X : “an even number”
3 1
Thenp =P(an even number) = 
6 2

3 1
q = P(not an even number) = 
6 2
Since the trials of throwing die are Bernoulli trials.

So, P(r successes) = n

Cr q n  r p r

5 2 2 5
 1
5  1 5  1
Here, n = 5 = Cr  
 2    Cr  
2 2

5
 1 1 5
(a) Now P(5 successes) = C5   
 2 32
(b) P(at least 3 successes)
= P(3 success or 4 successes or 5 successes)
= P(3 successes) + P(4 successes) + P(5 successes).
5 5 5
5 1 5  1 5  1
= C3    C4    C5  
 2  2  2

MATHEMATICS 459
 Probability
MODULE - V 5 5
Statistics and  1  5  4  3   1 16 1
=     5  1 =   (10  5  1)  
Probability  2  3  2 1   2 32 2
(c) P(at most 3 successes)
= P(0 successes or 1 success or 2 success or 3 successes)
= P(0 successes) + P(1 success) + P(2 successes) + P(3 successes)
Notes
5 5 5 5
5 1 5  1 5  1 5  1
= C0    C1    C2    C3  
 2  2  2  2

1 1 5 4 1 5 43 1
= 5    
32 32 2  1 32 3  2  1 32
1 26 13
=
32
1  5  10  10   .
32 16

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.9

1. Find the following probabilities when a fair coin is tossed 10 times.

(a) exactly 6 heads
(b) at least 6 heads
(c) at most 6 heads
2. A pair of dice is thrown 4 times. If getting a doublet (1, 1), (2, 2)... etc. is considered
a success, find the probability of two successes.
3. From a bag containing 3 red and 4 black sells, five balls are drawn successively with
replacement. If getting “a black ball” is considered “success”, find the probability of
getting 3 successes.
4. In a lot of bulbs manufactured in a factory, 5% are defective. What is the probability
that a sample of 10 bulbs will include not more than one defective bulb?
5. Probability that a CFL produced by a factory will fuse after 1 year of use is 0.01. Find
the probability that out of 5 such CFL’s.
(a) none
(b) not more than one
(c) more than one
(d) at least one
will fuse after 1 year of use.
C

1A
% +
LET US SUM UP
 Complement of an event : The complement of an event A consists of all those outcomes

460 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
which are not favourable to the event A, and is denoted by 'not A' or by A . MODULE - V
 Event 'A or B' : The event 'A or B' occurs if either A or B or both occur. Statistics and
 Event 'A and B' : The event 'A and B' consists of all those outcomes which are favourable Probability
to both the events A and B.
 Addition Law of Probability : For any two events A and B of a sample space S
P ( A or B ) = P (A) + P ( B )  P ( A and B)
 Additive Law of Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events : If A and B are two Notes
mutually exclusive events, then
P ( A or B ) = P (A  B) = P ( A ) + P ( B ).
a
 Odds in Favour of an Event : If the odds for A are a to b, then P (A) 
ab
b
If odds against A are a to b, then P (A) 
ab
 Two events are mutually exclusive, if occurrence of one precludes the possibility of
simultaneous occurrence of the other.
 Two events are independent, if the occurence of one does not affect the occurence of
other. If A and B are independent events, then P (A and B) = P (A). P (B) or
P  A  B   P  A . P  B 

  
For two dependent events P  A  B   P  A . P B A where P  A  0
or

P  A  B   P  B  where P A  B / P  B   0
 A  A A  B P  A B
 Conditional Probability P  B   P B
   
B
and P A  P A  
 
 Theorem of Total Probability

 A  A  A
P  A   P  E1  . P    P  E2  . P      P  En  .P  
 E1   E2   En 
 Baye's Theorem: If B1 , B2  Bn are mutually exclusive events and A is any event that

 Bi 
P   n
P  Bi  , P A  
Bi , i  1,2, n
A
occurs with B1 or B2 or Bn then  

i 1
P  Bi  , P A
Bi  
 Mean and Variance of a Random Varibale
n n 2 n
  E  x  XiPi ,  2   xi     xi 2 pi   2
z z z

 Binomial Distribution, P  x  r   ncr p r .q n r

MATHEMATICS 461
 Probability
MODULE - V
Statistics and
Probability SUPPORTIVE WEB SITES
[Link]
[Link]
Notes [Link] _distribution
[Link]
[Link]

TERMINAL EXERCISE
1. In a simultaneous toss of four coins, what is the probability of getting
(a) exactly three heads ?
(b) at least three heads ?
(c) atmost three heads ?
2. Two dice are thrown once. Find the probability of getting an odd number on the first die
or a sum of seven.
3. An integer is chosen at random from first two hundred integers. What is the probability
that the integer chosen is divisible by 6 or 8 ?
4. A bag contains 13 balls numbered from 1 to 13. A ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the number obtained it is divisible by either 2 or 3 ?
5. Find the probability of getting 2 or 3 heads, when a coin is tossed four times.
6. Are the following probability assignments consistent ? Justify your answer.
(a) P (A) = 0.6, P (B) = 0.5 , P ( A and B ) = 0.4
(b) P (A) = 0.2, P (B) = 0.3 , P (A and B ) = 0.4
(c) P (A) = P (B) = 0.7, P ( A and B ) = 0.2
7. A box contains 25 tickets numbered 1 to 25. Two tickets are drawn at random. What is
the probability that the product of the numbers is even ?
8. A drawer contains 50 bolts and 150 nuts. Half of the bolts and half of the nuts are rusted.
If one item is chosen at random, what is the probability that it is rusted or is a bolt ?
9. A lady buys a dozen eggs, of which two turn out to be bad. She chose four eggs to
scramble for breakfast. Find the chances that she chooses
(a) all good eggs
(b) three good and one bad eggs
(c) two good and two bad eggs (d) at least one bad egg.

462 MATHEMATICS
 Probability

10. Two cards are drawn at random without replacement from a well-shuffled deck of 52 MODULE - V
cards. Find the probability that the cards are both red or both kings. Statistics and
Probability
 1  2  1
11. Let A and B be two events such that P ( A)  , P ( B )  , P ( A  B )  , Find
2 3 4

P ( A / B ) and P ( B / A) . Notes

12. A bag contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the bag succes-
sively whithout replacement. Find the probability that both the balls drawn are black.
13. Find the probability distribution of X; where X denotes the sum of numbers obtained
when two dice are rolled.
14. An urn contains 4 black, 2 red and 2 white balls. Two balls (one after the other without
replacement) are drawn randomly from the urn. Find the probability distribution of
number of black balls.
15. Find the mean and variance of number of kings when two cards are simultaneously
drawn from a deck of 52 cards.
16. Ten bolts are drawn successively with replacement from a bag containing 5% defective
bolts. Find the probability that there is at least one defective bolt.

 1
17. Find the mean of the Binomial B  4,  .
 3
18. A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of
getting the third six in the sixth throw.
19. How many times must a man toss a fair coin so that the probability of having atleast
one head is more than 90%?

20. Find the probability of getting 5 exactly twice in seven throws of a die.
21. Find the mean number of heads in three tosses of a fair coin.
22. A factory produces nuts, by using three machine A, B and C, manufacturing 20%, 40%
and 40% of the nuts. 5%, 4% and 2% of their outputs are respectively found to be
defective, A nut is drawn of randomly from the product and is found to be defective.
What is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine C?

MATHEMATICS 463
 Probability
MODULE - V
Statistics and
ANSWERS
Probability
CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.1
1 1 1 3
1. 2. 3. 4.
6 2 2 4
Notes
3 2
5. (i) (ii)
5 5
5 5 1 1
6. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
36 36 12 36
5 1 1
7. 8. 9.
9 12 2
1 1 1
10. (i) (ii) (iii)
4 13 52
5 1 11
11. (i) (ii) (iii)
12 6 36
1 7 1
12. (i) (ii) (iii)
8 8 8

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.2

1 20 4 38
1. 2. 3.(a) (b)
8 39 25 245
1 3 1 1
4. 6. (i) (ii) (iii)
5525 10 6 30
10 4 60 1
7. 8. 9. 10.
133 7 143 4

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.3

4 7 9 7
1. 2. 3. 4.
13 36 16 12
4 1 7 5
5. 6. 7. 8.
9 2 13 12
5 4
9. (a) (b) 0.7 10.
18 11
5 35 3
11. (a) (b) 12.
6 36 4
13. (a) The odds for A are 7 to 3 . The odds against A are 3 to 7

464 MATHEMATICS
 Probability
13. (b) The odds for A are 4 to 1 and The odds against A are 1 to 4 MODULE - V
Statistics and
7 7 5 3 4 1
14. (a) (b) 15. (a) (b) 16. (a), (c) 17. 18. Probability
9 17 9 4 7 4
CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.4
2 1 24 11 2 1 1
1. (a) (b) (c) (d) 2. (a) (b) 3. Notes
7 35 35 35 3 2 4
1 11 1 5 1 53
4. (a) (b) 5. 6. (a) (b) 7.
35 35 2 144 1014 80
36 84 120 49
8. (a) (b) (c) (d)
169 169 169 169
9. (a) Independent (b) Independent
CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.5
13 1 25 1 1 3
1. 2. 3. 4 . , 5.
51 2 204 2 4 7

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.6

 3 10
1. 2. 3.
7 4 111

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.7

1. (a) Yes (b) No, as Pi is not 1

(c) No, as one of the Pi is –ve (d) No as Pi is not 1
2. (a) x : 0 1 2 (b) Xi : 0 1 2

9 24 16 25 10 1
P(x) : P(Xi) :
49 49 49 36 36 36

CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.8

1. (a)  = 2.3, Var = 1.01 (b)  = 0.15, Var = 0.4275

3
2. =
2
3. X : 0 1 2 3 4 5

6 10 8 6 4 2
P(Xi) :
36 36 36 36 36 36

MATHEMATICS 465
 Probability
MODULE - V 3 3 1 5
Statistics and 4. Mean  =
2
, Var. (Xi) =
8
5. Mean =
3
, Var. =
18
Probability
CHECK YOUR PROGRESS 19.9
105 193 53
1. (i) (ii) (iii)
512 512 64
Notes
9
25 90  64  29   19 
2. 3. 4.    
216 75 20 20
5 5
 99   99  994
5. (a)   (b)   + 5.
100  100  1005

5
 99  5  994   99 
5
(c) 1      (d) 1  
 100  1005   100 

TERMINAL EXERCISE
1 5 15 7 1
1. (a) (b) (c) 2. 3.
4 16 16 12 4
8 5 456
4. 5. 6. Only (a) is consistent 7.
13 8 625
5 14 16 1 19
8. 9. (a) (b) (c) (d)
8 33 33 11 33
55 3 1 3
10. 11. , 12.
221 4 2 7
13. Xi : 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
P(Xi) :
36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
14. x : 0 1 2
3 4 3
P(x) :
14 7 14
10
34 6800  19  4
15. Mean = , variance = . 16. 1   17.
221 (221) 2  20  3
5
625 7  5
18. 19. n=4 20.  
23328 12  6 
4
21. 1.5 22.
17
466 MATHEMATICS